The 2025 Inflation and Recession Watch

1. 86

   My Esotericposted 6 months ago

   "US economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, expanding at a rate of just 1.4%" Even without the gov't shutdown, it would have been only 1.8%,
   
   Apparently, inflation spiked.

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2. 86

   My Esotericposted 5 months ago

   This ought to make Trump supporters estatic:
   
   "The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%"
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/economy/ … t-february
   
   Followed by:
   
   "Dow falls by more than 600 points as oil hits $90 and weak jobs data add to market anxiety"
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/investin … s-oil-iran

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3. 86

   My Esotericposted 5 months ago

   The DOW is down more then 2,700 points so far because of Trump
   
   "The US economy grew just 0.7% last quarter, ahead of a potentially destabilizing war with Iran"
   
   I guess the spin from the right will be "at least it wasn't negative - Trump did a fantastic job keeping it barely positive.
   
   "US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, expanded at an annualized rate of 0.7% in the October-through-December period, the Commerce Department said Friday in its second estimate. That’s down sharply from the 1.4% rate initially reported, and a much slower pace than the 4.4% in the third quarter.
   
   The fourth quarter capped a tumultuous year for the US economy as Trump waged a bid to reshape global trade and businesses ramped up investments in AI while slamming the brakes on hiring. The economy expanded just 2.1% in 2025, the weakest annual pace since 2020, and before that, since 2016.
   
   The latest sentiment survey from the University of Michigan released Friday showed that the Iran war has already begun to take a toll on consumers. Sentiment declined about 2% this month to a reading of 55.5, according to a preliminary reading.
   
   The oil shock comes as the US labor market remains in a precarious state, with employers shedding 92,000 jobs in February as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.
   
   But new data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests employers are still looking to hire more workers, with 400,000 new job openings in January, compared to December.
   
   However, layoffs and discharges ticked up slightly, by 183,000 to 2.1 million in January. That’s according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report."
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/13/economy/ … timent-gdp

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4. 86

   My Esotericposted 4 months ago

   Here is an extremely interesting Subscribers Only CNN article about recessions - I'll include some highlights.
   
   It covers the predictions of Recession since 2018 and ends with why none of them happened. One major take away is that since Trump 1.0, America has been on the "verge" of a recession but, as a whole economy, never quite made it there. (We actually had one, very briefly, in 2020, but it was manufactured to same millions of lives.)
   
   "Economists have a few theories about why the US economy seems to be perpetually on the verge of recession without falling into one.
   
   1) The “rolling recession” theory: Several individual sectors have gone into recession while other sectors have boomed at the same time.
   
   In 2022, the tech sector was in recession while manufacturing boomed. In 2024, manufacturing was in a recession while the semiconductor business expanded rapidly. Last year, energy, luxury and the public sector shrank while AI was in a megaboom. This year, energy is having a resurgence, potentially insulating the economy from weakness in the financial and retail sectors – and some concerns about AI investment.
   
   “People ask when the recession is coming. Dude, if you’re in high tech, it happened 3 years ago,” said John M. Veitch, dean of the business school at Notre Dame de Namur University in California, referring to the 2022 tech bear market.
   
   An extreme example of rolling recessions was Australia, which went 28 years without a full-on recession because a commodities boom that began in 1992 insulated the rest of the economy.
   
   2) The K-shaped theory: Wealthier Americans continue to spend despite higher prices, because they’re insulated from some of the economy’s challenges.
   
   The K-shape has kept the US economy growing even as many folks struggle with affordability.
   The K-shape has kept the US economy growing even as many folks struggle with affordability. Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images
   Folks at the top of the K typically own homes and have money in the market, while many folks at the bottom part of the K are struggling. Robust spending from wealthier Americans balances out the financial difficulties of lower-income households, preventing the broader economy from entering a recession.
   
   3) The front-loading theory: Trump has often threatened tariffs as negotiating tools and doesn’t usually implement them right away. That has given businesses and consumers a window to front load and hoard, boosting spending.
   
   When he doesn’t follow through, which he often doesn’t, people continue to spend, noted Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union." - David Goldman
   
   (I finally broke down and spent the $49/yr for a subscription.)
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/economy/ … omy-timing

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   1. 83

      Credence2posted 4 months agoin reply to this

      (I finally broke down and spent the $49/yr for a subscription.)
      
      I did too, last month….

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      1. 85

         Ken Burgessposted 4 months agoin reply to this

         They found two suckas... what a waste of good money.
         
         
         “1.4 Million Migrants on Medicaid?” – Bessent TORCHES Bernie Sanders In CONGRESS
         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxCHe13u-a4

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         1. 86

            My Esotericposted 4 months agoin reply to this

            What was the title of that book about you - Lies, Lies, and Damned Lies? Something  like that.

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         2. 83

            Credence2posted 4 months agoin reply to this

            I dunno, but it a better alternative than so much of the “off the wall” stuff from you tube that you dredge up…..

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            1. 85

               Ken Burgessposted 4 months agoin reply to this

               Off the wall... sure... some of it...
               
               But it's better than paying for propaganda that is known to be false and biased more often than not.
               
               Paying to stay safe in a bubble of biased information... I don't ever want to be that guy.

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               1. 86

                  My Esotericposted 4 months agoin reply to this

                  Thanks for vocalizing what Fox really is.

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   2. 84

      GA Andersonposted 4 months agoin reply to this

      Well damn, with your near-exclusive use of CNN links, I thought they were paying you.
      
      GA

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5. 86

   My Esotericposted 4 months ago

   TRUMP DRIVES 3.3% INFLATION!!
   
   "US inflation tripled last month on record spike in gas prices"
   
   And it is guaranteed to go up at least for the next two months as the damage Trump caused seeps through the system.
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/10/business … ation-iran

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6. 86

   My Esotericposted 4 months ago

   Trump is driving America into the dumps - here is more proof!!
   
   Consumer sentiment plummets to record low
   By Bryan Mena
   Americans are souring on the economy as the US-Israeli war with Iran pushes up inflation, prompting consumer sentiment to plummet to its lowest level on records going back to 1952.
   
   The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday showed that sentiment declined 11% early this month to a reading of 47.6, lower than anything seen in the post World War II era, including during the Great Recession, the pandemic downturn and the historic inflation surge afterward.
   
   “Open-ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy,” Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, said in a release.
   
   “Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall,” she added."

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7. 86

   My Esotericposted 4 months ago

   As a precursor to what is to come, the wholesale inflation index skyrocketed to 4% because of Trump!!
   
   "Wholesale inflation rose in March to three year-high"
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/14/economy/ … tion-march

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   1. 83

      peterstreepposted 4 months agoin reply to this

      This is great news for the super rich. As things can be bought cheaply during a recession, and they can sell with lots of profit it after the recession.

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   2. 83

      Credence2posted 4 months agoin reply to this

      I had forgotten, ESO, who was it that told me that if inflation rose above 3 Percent, it was time to reassess Trump’s control of inflationary pressures in the economy?
      
      I believe that that was Sharlee who suggested the “wait and see” approach. 3.3 is the magic number and that IS over 3 percent.

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      1. 86

         My Esotericposted 4 months agoin reply to this

         I had forgotten that.

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8. 86

   My Esotericposted 3 months ago

   Do you think the Democratic Wave in the midterms is now a lock?
   
   "US inflation rose to 3.8% in April, eroding Americans’ paychecks"
   
   "For the first time in three years, Americans’ wages are no longer outpacing inflation.
   
   Prices rose 0.6% on a monthly basis, driving the annual rate to 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
   
   (Will Trump now purge the BLS?)
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/12/economy/ … tion-april
   
   
   And then there is this: "‘My life is not affordable. No one cares’"
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/12/politics … roblem-vis

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   1. 83

      peterstreepposted 3 months agoin reply to this

      What we will see in the next years is what Trump is doing now. He knows that he won't be collected again, so he will try to get as much money out of this presidency as possible. No matter what happens to the ordinary citizen.
      
      This extreme corruption will have consequences for many internal governmental structures and will be difficult to restore. Even after Trump is gone a big stinking wound will remain.

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      1. 86

         My Esotericposted 3 months agoin reply to this

         !!!

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         1. 83

            peterstreepposted 3 months agoin reply to this

            The last sentence was perhaps a bit strong. But the damage Trump is doing to the US and the world can't be undone. Things have changed and relationships shifted. The EU has become more independent, China has become more powerful and with more influence.
            The internal problems made by Trump has weakened the US too.
            These wounds are difficult to heal. Europe has learned that no president, no matter how good, will stay forever. And there is always a chance that the US votes for a madman as a president in the future again.

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9. 86

   My Esotericposted 3 months ago

   It just got worse - A LOT WORSE!
   
   "Higher gas prices sent wholesale inflation soaring last month, likely signaling more pain ahead for consumers"
   
   "The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation, increased in April to 6% on an annual basis from 4% in March, well exceeding economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, the index increased 1.4%, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s twice the pace that economists expected." (the avg is 3.3%)
   
   The chart in the article will knock your socks off.
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/13/economy/ … tion-april

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   1. 83

      Credence2posted 3 months agoin reply to this

      And the biggest confirmation is Trump saying that he did not care about the economic woes of the American people, Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. Is it some sort of phallic obsession?
      
      The article shows that the trend is quite clear, I would suspect that Trump and his goons are going to attempt to suppress this data in the future.
      
      I am waiting with baited breath for Caesar to fall on his sword.

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      1. 86

         My Esotericposted 3 months agoin reply to this

         And the hugely ironic thing is that Iran was NEVER going to get the nuclear bomb after Obama's agreement with them.
         
         It was Trump who put the bomb back on the table (but even then, the likelihood was very small indeed.

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10. 86

    My Esotericposted 3 months ago

    "Trump’s main problem on the economy, according to the new CNN poll"
    
    "In our polarized political age, it’s rare that 70% of Americans agree on anything. But right now, 70% of Americans agree that President Donald Trump is doing a bad job on the economy, according to a new CNN poll this week.
    
    That number isn’t just big; it was previously unthinkable. The economy was Trump’s rock during his first term, with his disapproval rating on that issue never even reaching 50% in CNN data.
    
    The story of how he got here is one of overriding hubris and unforced errors."
    
    https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/politics … l-analysis

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11. 86

    My Esotericposted 3 months ago

    Even though Trump refuses to believe and all his supporters have their heads buried deep in the sand, the rest of America know what is happening!!
    
    "High gas prices, cost of living send US consumer sentiment to all-time low"
    
    "A closely watched measurement of US consumer sentiment fell to a fresh, all-time low in May, according to the latest survey from the University of Michigan.
    
    The May consumer sentiment index dropped for the third consecutive month, falling to 44.2 and landing below the previous record low of 49.8 set in April."
    
    And they will show how unhappy they are about it in November when they kick the bums out.
    
    https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/22/economy/ … -final-may

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12. 86

    My Esotericposted 2 months ago

    More fallout from Trump disastrous presidency
    
    "US inflation tops 4% for first time in three years as oil prices jump"
    
    Bad news for the employed and worse news for Republicans
    
    "The fast-rising prices are outstripping workers’ paychecks, and that gap is widening: Annual real (inflation-adjusted) wages declined for the second month in a row, with the loss widening to 0.7% from 0.3% in April."
    
    https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/10/economy/ … lation-may

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       IslandBitesposted 2 months agoin reply to this

       Hey, but now Demented Trump loves inflation.

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    2. 83

       Credence2posted 2 months agoin reply to this

       That’s capital, i get a raise in my COLA while Trump falls flat.
       
       Where did all the rightwingers on this forum disappear to?
       
       So, now, Trump “loves” inflation while he boasts of stolen Iranian oil as consolation. The conservatives are hiding because they do not want to admit to the sheer ludicrous nature of Trump and his latest comments. And they said that Biden was bad news?

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       1. 86

          My Esotericposted 2 months agoin reply to this

          Hadn't thought about the COLA, I get three sources - SS, Military, Civil Service  You probably get all three.
          
          My guess is they got tired of being bombarded with the truth and facts we used to combat their disinformation.
          
          It gives me more time to devote to my book.

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             Credence2posted 2 months agoin reply to this

             We are on the same page so much because we have similar backgrounds.
             
             I get SS and Civil Service, I served as a junior officer for only 4 years. While the proposed increase is dismal for those making only the minimum SS income, it is more than just a few pennies for those on military or civil service pensions.

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                wildernessposted 2 months agoin reply to this

                Are you sure?  Listening to the news tonight, almost all the inflation is in energy and food...the two categories not used to calculate the federal COLA increases.  It's why we continually lose every year, and unless they make some radical changes in their arithmetic we're going to see negative increases next year after increased medicare payments.

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                1. 83

                   Credence2posted 2 months agoin reply to this

                   You’re right, we are losing as well, but a 4 percent raise while i was working making a more than ample salary was helpful. Such is the case today. Alas, most of our expenses are medical, as me and my spouse are retired and don’t eat a great deal and, except for air conditioning, energy use is not excessive There are just two of us. I am not on Medicare but am privately insured. Being out of the labor market there are no excessive transportation costs or inordinate use of energy. However, my Blue Cross insurer premium rates have not exactly been static over the last 4 years and has risen higher than the COLA’s even when Uncle Sam pays 70 percent of the premium.
                   
                   Like you told me before, Social Security was never designed to replace wages earned during work. As it is with former feds, it is just one of a 2 or three sources in the income stream.

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                2. 86

                   My Esotericposted 2 months agoin reply to this

                   That is a possibility, so I had to check. Our COLA is based on the July - Sep average CPI-W, which includes food and energy.
                   
                   What is also a distinct possibility is the losing ground.

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13. 86

    My Esotericposted 2 months ago

    "US wholesale inflation rose sharply last month as Iran oil shock continues to drive up business costs"
    
    As if it wasn't bad enough with the CPI jumping to 4.3%, it is even worse with the PPI (wholesaler index) soaring 6.5%; that is getting into 2022 territory. It is now 55% of the way to reaching the 2022 high while the CPI is something like 48%.
    
    The PPI generally leads the CPI by 5 to 6 months, so expect that to keep increasing. However, energy prices have dropped in June - so far - so the PPI probably won't jump again. But, if Hormuz remains closed then expect more increases in July because worldwide reserves will become exhausted by then.
    
    https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/11/economy/ … lation-may

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14. 86

    My Esotericposted 20 hours ago

    TDS Trump defenders get ready to pay more for Paper Products, Booze, and Dairy. While Trump's stupid 50% tariffs may not impact overall inflation much, you will definitely see a rise in these prices.
    
    [b]"A US-Canada trade war could make these everyday items pricier"
    
    https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/24/business … -cost-more

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