The 2025 Inflation and Recession Watch

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   My Esotericposted 41 hours ago

   Thought it was about time to devote a forum to just likely outcome of Trump's so-called Bold Agenda, you know, the one that is taking America down with it.
   
   There are several parts of his "agenda" that will likely cause inflation and recession. The two biggest are his draconian immigration policies which are destroying the lives of millions of immigrants and citizens alike and the TACO tariff program.
   
   How will this happen?
   
   On the immigration side, Trump plans to reduce our workforce by about 2.4% once he deports all the citizens and non-citizens he wants.
   
   Recession can occur from the loss of demand from the 4 million+ no longer buying things in the US (plus lower demand from another 2 million or so workers who lost jobs because businesses went bust due to lack of labor).
   
   Inflation can occur from lower supply due to lower economic activity.
   
   On the tariff side, inflation is a mathematical certainty. The only question is how much. You cannot make things more expensive to produce or purchase without driving inflation.
   
   Recession and easily follow from lower supply as businesses fold under reduced demand and higher costs. It is expected that if Trump gets his way, GDP will decrease by 1% to 2.6%.
   
   We are seeing this in real time now.
   
   * For the first 6 months of Trump's term, GDP grew at a measly 1.23%. And this is before his higher tariffs take effect on Aug 8 (his latest "deadline").
   
   * PCE, the Feds inflation gauge, had been getting very close to its target of 2% as Biden left office. But it reversed course when Trump took over. Core (the less volatile) PCE was 2.8% at the end of 2024. It dropped to 2.6% by the end of Jan 2025. It was back up to 2.8% in June 2025 and projected to be the same in July.
   
   * Other CPI measures are more worrisome and can be gotten into latter
   
   * The July labor report was a bombshell of bad news since it showed an almost stalled labor market in its May and June revisions, and an anemic 83,000 in July.
   
   * Unemployment ticked up t0 4.2% while the Labor Force Participation Rate is down to 62.2%, the lowest since 2022. One of the reasons for the declining rate is the lower participation of foreign-born workers - 341,000 fewer in the latest measure.
   
   * The chances of recession are down overall but range between 30% to 50% depending on who you ask. There is one outlier, and AI-based model, that has the chance of recession by year end at 71%.
   
   
   Clearly, things are not going in the direction that MAUGA thought it would when they voted for Trump.

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2. 84

   My Esotericposted 41 hours ago

   HOT OFF THE PRESS, sort of.
   
   Trump wants inflation to increase fast now.
   
   You’re absolutely right — the de minimis exception, which had already been phased out for Chinese and Hong Kong shipments earlier in 2025, was officially voided globally by President Trump.
   
   What Changed — Explained
   
   1. Initial Suspension for China/Hong Kong
   On May 2, 2025, Trump revoked the de minimis duty-free exemption specifically for goods from China and Hong Kong, requiring tariffs up to 145% or flat fees on postal shipments.
   
   2. Full Global Suspension
   On July 30, 2025, Trump signed an executive order expanding the suspension to all countries. This order removes duty-free entry for any shipment ≤ $800, effective August 29, 2025.
   
   Non-postal imports will be treated like standard entries (full tariffs, documentation). Postal shipments will temporarily face flat duties ($80–$200/item) before transitioning to ad-valorem tariffs.
   
   3. Earlier Legal Mandate to End De Minimis in 2027
   The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on July 4, 2025, legally repeals the statutory de minimis exemption effective July 1, 2027. But the executive order accelerates that timetable.
   
   Why It Matters
   
   Government Reasoning
   The administration cited [FAKE] national security concerns, arguing that the exemption was exploited to traffic illicit substances like fentanyl, and to evade tariffs.
   
   Economic & Trade Impact
   Over 90% of U.S. cargo formerly qualified as de minimis, underscoring the vast scale of shipments affected.
   
   Platforms like Shein and Temu, and small businesses on Etsy, eBay, relied heavily on this exemption—now they will face steep cost increases.
   
   The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) warns the new policy will sharply reduce access to affordable cross-border e-commerce and strain customs infrastructure.
   
   This is possibly another TACO maneuver by Trump.
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/03/business … temu-shein

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   1. 84

      My Esotericposted 41 hours agoin reply to this

      I looked deeper into this. If I read it correctly, this will shut down Amazon, Temu, Shein.  Why? Because the duty is per "item" being purchased.
      
      Example
      Let’s say you order three different products from Vietnam (a country facing a 20% U.S. tariff):
      
      You would be charged:
      
      3 items × $160 = $480 in duties, likely passed on by the merchant or shipper.
      
      If those same three items came from France (with <16% average tariffs):
      
      3 items × $80 = $240 in duties.
      
      If it comes from a country with a >25% tariff, then the duty is $200 per item, so in the example above, the cost would be 3 x $200 = $600 added on to what ever item you bought!!.
      
      Do you really think the seller is going to eat those costs or the buyer pay them?  I don't think so, they will simply go out of business and Americans will simply do without.

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3. 84

   My Esotericposted 40 hours ago

   My wife just paid $8.49 for a jar of mayonnaise that use to cost a little over $6. Likewise, she just paid $6 and change for a bottle catsup that used to cost a little over $4.

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4. 70

   Kathleen Cochranposted 38 hours ago

   I just paid $5 for a small shake at DQ.
   
   Recessions are good for the rich.

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   1. 84

      My Esotericposted 35 hours agoin reply to this

      They can be, unless they are big ones like the Great Recession or Great Depression.
      
      Bush's recession actually reduced inequality a smidgeon. But it took the Great Depression (made worse by a Trump tariff look-a-like) and WW II bring income and wealth inequality down to something that was reasonable.
      
      Unfortunately, all those gains are long gone.

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