Is Trump's Tariffs Going to Cause Inflation and Recessions.

1. 86

   My Esotericposted 4 weeks ago

   This topic deserves its own space.
   
   Most economists think Trump's chaotic. seat-of-the-pants Tariff War against the world WILL cause significant inflation and possibly a Major Recession. I'll start with this analysis that I posted elsewhere.
   
   Let's review the latest on inflation and it is not good news from Trump or the economy. I will be presenting the most common measures, but lesser known ones that the Fed find more important.
   
   * The Headline CPI increased from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June which is 3.7% annualized.  After 3 months of increases, this means Inflation is accelerating again.
   
   * The Core CPI, stripping out some volatile elements, increased from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June. This is still pretty stable even though it is increasing. However, looking at a smaller subset of items, you will see a different story.
   
   * The Core PCE, followed by the Fed, rose from 2.7% in May to 2.8% in June. This metric has increased three-months running, which is why Powell won't cut interest rates.
   
   * The Trimmed-Mean CPI is one of those specialized metrics the Fed looks hard at and it increased dramatically from 2.22% (annualized) in May to an astounding 3.9% (annualized) in June! Beyond removing Food and Energy which the Core CPI does, this measure removes the top AND bottom 8% items leaving the central part of the basket. This jump shows an across the board increase in inflation. A terrible sign.
   
   * The Sticky CPI increased from 2.27% (annualized) in May to a whopping 4..28% (annualized) in June!! This metric measures things that change infrequently such as rent, medical services, and education. Sticky CPI rising at >3% YoY means inflation is embedded in essential, non-volatile sectors—not just headline spikes. Also, the increase indicates acceleration of inflation. Again, terrible news.
   
   Now the Good News
   
   * Both the Headline and Core PPI fell slightly from May to June. The PPI is what businesses pay and this suggests they are paying less in June. The PPI is also a leading indicator suggesting an flattening or lessening of future inflation. The caveats are that lower transportation and warehouse costs drove the decrease. Goods PPI is still increasing. Taken together, this indicates businesses may be eating rising costs trading small increases in consumer prices for smaller increases, or even losses, in profit margin. If businesses decide to protect their margins, then this will add to future inflation.
   
   You are Paying More For:
   
   * Apparel in June. After falling in April and May, it increased 4.9% (annualized) in June.
   
   * Appliances in June. Prices increased a lot in April and May but the June increase is 1.9% (a mind-blowing 23.9% (annualized)) for June.
   
   * Computers and stuff in June. Prices increased a lot in April and May but the June increase is 1.4% (a mind-blowing 18% (annualized)) for June.
   
   * Sporting goods: The pace of price hikes accelerated here, with the index rising 1.4% in June, up from 0.3% in May. The June increase is the largest in 18 months.
   
   * Tools, hardware and supplies: During much of 2023 and 2024, prices fell for this category. In June, prices rose 0.7%, marking the fifth-straight month of increases.
   
   * Toys: For the second month in a row, prices rose by 1.4%, a back-to-back jump only seen during periods of abnormally high inflation (2022, 1980). And more price hikes could be coming down the pike, Hasbro CEO told CNN’s Audie Cornish this week.
   
   Video equipment: Prices surged a record 4.5% /75% annualized) in June after rising 1% in May in this category that typically has seen more deflation than inflation since 1998, when the BLS started tracking it.
   
   Windows and floor coverings and other linens: After rising 0.3% from May to April, prices in this category surged 4.2% (about 73% annualized) higher in June, a record-high increase (BLS started tracking this category in early 1999). The US textile industry has shrunk considerably in recent decades, resulting in a high reliance on imported linens.
   
   As one person on this thread likes to put it - "why isn't Trump doing anything about this SKYROCETTING Inflation?

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      Credence2posted 4 weeks agoin reply to this

      I am waiting to see the result of all of this in the next COLA next August 13th, how long can he keep the lid on the results of his shortsightedness?

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         My Esotericposted 4 weeks agoin reply to this

         I am not aware of a COLA increase then, neither is ChatGPT.

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2. 86

   My Esotericposted 4 weeks ago

   INFLATION UPDATE
   
   Beef prices SOARING, in part due to tariffs (or the threat of the). Other factors are shrinking herd size, more imported beef (although still small percentwise).
   
   Unlike eggs where you could point to the Avian Flu as the cause, beef inflation may be here to stay.
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/21/business … ecord-high

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3. 59

   Willowarborposted 13 days ago

   Trump announces 100% tariffs on computer chips while simultaneously exempting Apple after they promised $100B investment. This isn't economic policy...it's pay-to-play. Just like Trump’s Carrier air conditioning stunt from his first term. "America First" really means "highest bidder first."
   
   But please tell me more about capitalism...

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4. 86

   My Esotericposted 13 days ago

   Inflation Update
   
   Trump is costing American Jobs as nations find other places to buy.
   
   "Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who has played a key role in trade negotiations with the United States, said Canada is seeking to ramp up trade with other partners after its southern neighbor imposed higher tariffs and relations have soured.
   
   The tariffs on Canadian goods start at a minimum of 35%, unless they are compliant with the terms of the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement, in which case they face no tariffs.
   
   “Canada is diversifying our trade. We’re seeing a 25% increase in trade with the European Union; the UK is up by 30%,” Ford told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Thursday.
   
   “So as we’re diversifying and onshoring products, the American people are losing their jobs,” he said."

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5. 86

   My Esotericposted 13 days ago

   Here is an update of what you will be paying more for.
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/01/economy/ … -expensive

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6. 86

   My Esotericposted 12 days ago

   Here is what ChatGPT thinks will happen assuming Trump doesn't TACO again.
   
   Now that Trump’s new tariffs appear to be locked in, you can expect the impact on inflation to start showing up clearly in the data between August and October 2025, with full visibility by late Q4. Here’s a breakdown of the timeline and mechanics:
   
   Inflation Impact Timeline
   
   Stage                                        Timeframe                                  Explanation
   Tariffs Announced                     Feb–July 2025    Initial uncertainty caused some price volatility and stockpiling
   
   Tariffs Locked In                     August 2025            Businesses now assume higher costs are permanent
   
   Supply Chain Adjustments    Aug–Sep 2025    Importers either pass costs to consumers or find alternatives
   
   Retail Price Pass-Through    Sep–Oct 2025           Shelves begin reflecting price hikes as contracts expire and new inventory arrives
   
   CPI/PCE Impact Visible          September data (released in October)    Monthly inflation reports should show clear upward pressure
   
   Peak Effects                             Q4 2025                   Full-scale consumer and producer price increases expected if no policy reversal
   
   Categories to Watch
   
   The inflation impact will be uneven — expect higher prices in:
   
   * Durable goods: appliances, tools, electronics
   
   * Apparel and footwear: especially imported clothing (EU, Asia)
   
   * Food products: where ingredients or packaging are imported
   
   * Automobiles & parts: a major inflation driver in past tariff rounds
   
   * Construction materials: steel, aluminum, lumber, etc.
   
   Economic Data to Watch
   
   * CPI and Core CPI (BLS) – Monthly, typically around the 10th–12th
   
   * PCE Price Index (BEA) – Later in the month, Fed’s preferred inflation measure
   
   * Producer Price Index (PPI) – Often shows early cost pressures before CPI reacts
   
   Summary
   
   * Clear signs of inflation from tariffs are likely by September–October 2025, peaking in Q4.
   
   * This lag reflects supply contracts, inventory depletion, and pricing cycles.
   
   * How much inflation rises depends on how broadly the tariffs apply and whether businesses absorb costs or pass them on.
   
   Impact on Household Families
   
   2025 (late Q3–Q4)z; Consumer prices rise:
   
   * Grocery prices may increase another 1.0–2.5%, especially for processed and packaged foods using imported inputs.
   
   * Clothing, footwear, electronics, and appliances could rise 3–7%, especially goods from Europe and Asia.
   
   Annual cost impact:
   
   * Median household may pay $800 (low income) –$3,200 (high income) more per year in 2025.
   
   * Lower-income families hit harder as they spend more of their budget on goods affected by tariffs.
   
   * Job Loss by end of year - 497,000
   
   2026
   
   * Persistent inflation:
   
   * Annual costs may climb further to $1,200 (low income) – $4,900+ (high income) if tariffs remain.
   
   * The cumulative effect compounds as suppliers fully adjust pricing.
   
   * Potential job loss ripple effects: Unemployment range from 4.5% to 4.9%
   
   * If job cuts in manufacturing or trade services occur, family incomes may also decline.
   
   2. Impact on Import-Related Businesses
   
   2025
   
   * Immediate margin squeeze:
   
   * Companies relying on imported goods or parts (retail, manufacturing, construction) face input cost increases of 10–20% in some cases.
   
   * Limited ability to pass on costs:
   
   * Many businesses initially try to absorb losses, risking profitability.
   
   * Small businesses with tight margins may begin pausing operations or downsizing.(Already happening)
   
   * Inventory advantage fades:
   
   * Firms relying on stockpiled pre-tariff inventory will feel full effects by Q4 2025.
   
   2026
   
   * Wider closures and layoffs:
   
   * Sectors like retail, apparel, home goods, and electronics may see reduced sales, downsizing, and job losses.
   
   * Reshoring pressures:
   
   * Some firms may attempt to reshore or switch suppliers, but this requires time and capital, disadvantaging smaller businesses. Even more inflation due to higher costs.
   
   3. Impact on Export-Related Businesses
   
   2025
   
   * Countries hit by U.S. tariffs may retaliate or buy from non-U.S. competitors. (CANADA says they are already doing this)
   
   * Sectors like agriculture, aerospace, autos, and machinery see declines in export orders.
   
   * U.S. exporters face price disadvantages if overseas buyers face counter-tariffs or switching costs.
   
   2026
   
   * Some U.S. exporters may permanently lose market share if foreign buyers establish new supply lines.(This happened to farmers due to Trump's 2018 tariffs)
   
   * Export-heavy industries could see a slowdown in hiring, reduced output, or regional recessions in agriculture-heavy states and industrial corridors.
   
   These aren't possible outcomes, they are likely outcomes [i](All the above happened from the Smoot-Hawley tariffs almost a century ago[/b]

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7. 86

   My Esotericposted 12 days ago

   "Americans are worried about grocery prices again, and they’re making changes"
   
   "New York
   —
   President Donald Trump campaigned on lowering grocery prices during the 2024 race and pledged that Americans are “going to be affording their groceries very soon.” But grocery prices have continued to tick higher after the election, and Americans are starting to change their shopping behavior as they grow more concerned about the economy."
   
   On the rise - "The rate of inflation on groceries has come down significantly since a 9.4% peak in 2022, driven by supply chain bottlenecks. Grocery prices increased 2.4% for the last 12 months ending in June, according to the latest consumer price index reading."
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/business … trump-poll

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8. 86

   My Esotericposted 11 days ago

   Trump really needs to go on America's Got Talent with his stand-up comedy routine (although he would probably sue Simon if he didn't win.)
   
   Trump showcases his incompetence and gross stupidity with "Trump warns of another Great Depression if court strikes down tariffs"
   
   The Great Depression might happen if the courts DON'T strike down his tariffs.
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/business … depression

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9. 86

   My Esotericposted 8 days ago

   Core Inflation just broke the 3% barrier. It rose higher than expected to 3.1%!
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/12/economy/ … ation-july

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      GA Andersonposted 8 days agoin reply to this

      Just a note, to note why the 'public' is confused.
      
      CNN says it was above expectations (according to you), yet BBC told me (20 minutes ago) it came in below expectations and that the market was responding positively.
      
      I don't know which is right, and I'm not curious enough to look.
      
      GA

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         IslandBitesposted 8 days agoin reply to this

         Inflation increased in July
         
         The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday said that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.2% in July compared with last month, while it was up 2.7% from a year ago.
         
         The monthly figure was in line with the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, while headline was slightly cooler than the 2.8% expected.
         
         The year-on-year increase of 2.7% for the broadest inflation measure was essentially unchanged from June and undershot forecasts for a 2.8% pickup. But the “core” measure climbed 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June, the highest reading since February.

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            GA Andersonposted 7 days agoin reply to this

            Thanks, I guess.  ;-)
            
            It was just a note about the media.
            
            GA

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               IslandBitesposted 7 days agoin reply to this

               I know.
               
               But that note was based on your erroneous (bias?) interpretation (or on incomplete information. Again, bias?)
               
               At least, this time, sounded more like a talking point.
               
               I guess. ;-)
               
               So I offered the info so there's no excuses.

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                  GA Andersonposted 7 days agoin reply to this

                  Oops, presumption or assumption?
                  
                  Either way, it was wrong.
                  
                  It is a long and twisting route, but if you follow it maybe the original point will be clearer
                  .
                  It all started with a BBC news segment I was listening to while scanning the forum.
                  
                  The blurb presented the number as a good thing, better than expected. There was an inference that it wasn't all good news, but the market was responding positively—specifically noted as "mid-day trading."
                  
                  They also noted the points and categories you offered. They left the impression that it was good news. Not great news, and not 'we're out of the woods' news, but generally good news.
                  
                  Then I hit Myesoteric's CNN-linked post.
                  
                  So I did look around a bit first. Not digging, and not looking for ammo to counter (twice I nearly sprained an ankle dodging rabbit holes). Just thought I should know the basics before venturing in.
                  
                  The point wasn't to argue the stats, but to note the different media presentations of the same news.
                  
                  "Erroneous interpretation?" I bet that BBC probably used the same "numbers" sources as CNN.
                  
                  I'm mortally wounded, IslandMom. You doubted me. After all these years... so easily forgotten.
                  
                  GA

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10. 59

    Willowarborposted 6 days ago

    Our economy was the "envy of the world" according to the Wall Street Journal. That was before trump took office. And now the economy is "sputtering". This is just the beginning - trump's policies aren't even fully being felt yet. What is before us may make the 2007-2008 Great Recession (also caused by republicans) look mild.

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       Ken Burgessposted 6 days agoin reply to this

       Our economy was the "envy of the world" according to the Wall Street Journal. That was before trump took office. And now the economy is "sputtering".
       
       Yup, unbiased reporting at its finest. 
       
       I mean, I've noticed the significant, blatant, historic almost difference since Biden departed and Trump took office... gas has shot up to 5 dollars... grocery bills have doubled in less than a year... the stock market has crashed... its deplorable.

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11. 59

    Willowarborposted 6 days ago

    PPI coming in RED  HOT.... HIGHEST IN 3 YEARS...Who will be fired over this??   
    
    July PPI numbers are in:
    - PPI 0.9% MoM, Exp. 0.2%
    - PPI 3.3% YoY, Exp. 2.5%
    - PPI Core 0.9% MoM, Exp. 0.2%
    - PPI Core 3.7% YoY, Exp. 3.0%

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       My Esotericposted 5 days agoin reply to this

       Additional data:
       
       Headline PPI                              +0.9%    +3.3% YoY — three-year high
       
       Core PPI (ex food & energy)      +0.6%    +2.8% YoY — steepest since early 2022
       
       Services Prices                      +1.1%    Broad-based jump in trade/service margins
       
       Goods Prices                               +0.7%    Food up 1.4%—vegetables led with +38.9% spike
       
       Intermediate Demand Indexes   +0.8 to +1.8%    Major increases in processed/unprocessed goods
       
       Sticky CPI                                  +4.8% (ann.), +3.4% YoY (for items whose prices change LESS than once every 3 or 4 months) - a "normal" value is between 2% and 2.5%. The current 3.4% is where it was when inflation spiked in 2021-2022
       
       In spite of the previous attempt above to deflect to old, misleading news, this is not a good economic story at all!

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12. 59

    Willowarborposted 6 days ago

    Of all the people Trump could have picked to run the BLS, he picked a guy who either doesn't understand or regularly misrepresents labor and economic statistics, who was in the crowd outside the Capitol on Jan. 6, and who chose to do media appearances in front of a giant poster of a Nazi battleship....
    
    

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13. 59

    Willowarborposted 6 days ago

    Post-COVID inflation.
    The oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.
    These originated outside the United States.
    You have to go back pretty far in the history books to find economic harm as totally self-inflicted, stupidly unnecessary as the Trump tariff disaster.
    
    The Trump slump is starting to manifest itself.... Is recession right around the corner?

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14. 59

    Willowarborposted 5 days ago

    Trump's  position is that the growth is strong, jobs are plentiful, inflation is low, and Jerome Powell is a moron for not seeing the urgency of cutting interest rates....
    
    If growth is so strong, why cut rates? Interest rates are lowered when growth is weak and jobs are scarce. This makes no sense if you ACTUALLY understand Macro 101.
    
    The man talks out of his ass either because he believes his followers don't know any better or worse yet... He doesn't know any better.

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       My Esotericposted 5 days agoin reply to this

       When has Trump EVER made sense to rational people?

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15. 86

    My Esotericposted 27 hours ago

    INFLATION ON THE RISE
    
    "Home Depot says it will raise some prices because of tariffs"
    
    https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/19/economy/ … ffs-prices

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16. 59

    Willowarborposted 4 hours ago

    Mortgage applications experiencing a 12.3% swing to the negative.
    
    Good job Trump.  No wonder he has to order up  a rigged midterm.

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    Willowarborposted 4 hours ago

    John Deere Announces Mass Layoffs...
    
    John Deere attributed a slowdown in Q3 sales to customer cautiousness amid Trump’ tariff policy.
    
    The company is set to fire employees at a facility in East Moline, Illinois, and workers  at a facility in Waterloo, Iowa.
    
    Small maga towns where Deere is about the only game in town...hey at least these folks are getting what they voted for!

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       My Esotericposted 3 hours agoin reply to this

       And the avalanche of bad news on the Trump economy continues.
       
       Have you noticed the apologists have stopped apologizing for Trump's bad economy?

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