My inclination is to say it was largely the war, not the New Deal. Furthermore the New Deal was unconstitutional and depended on a perversion of the Commerce Clause...but that for another thread.
Umm, you are definitely getting better
And yes, I think New deal did not do any good to American economy, and any recovery that finally happened was despite of it, not because...
Forgive me, , Misha, but I just love it when foreigners have such strong opinions one way or another on our history!
I've got to say, I wrote a book detailing aspects of the great depression and so did a lot of research on the topic and I don't feel I could make an educated enough argument here without more concentration on it.
That's the thing about politics--people so much think it is something of a sport--and one of opinion at that. I think the more you actually know about or have studied something, the less likely you are to jump in showing your political cards, just because you are a 'conservative' or a 'liberal' or this ism or that ism...
Well said. I heartily agree. To play devils advocate, though...just because a person does "a lot of research" on a topic doesn't mean their opinions are...umm...correct.
Lita this is perfectly said. Thank you.
Bill and I were just saying last night how politics (and most issues, actually) have become this blood sport where everyone just whips out their pre-fab opinions like weapons and starts hacking at what they perceive to be the opposite side. Every argument has become a dance of extreme opposition, with no tolerance for complexity or the real possibility that the final explanation is still out of reach. I find that exhausting and unproductive. But you said it best.
What concerns me about our current situation is that, whether it was the New Deal or the War that ended Great Depression I, it was manufacturing jobs that ended it.Those jobs created a prosperous middle class that then went out and spent money and created even more jobs. Now our manufacturing base is gone and what little remains is critically ill. So where is our current recovery supposed to come from? I don't have an answer, I'm just asking the question. We currently produce little of value in the U.S. We've been inventing money--just pulling it out of our butts. I don't see how this can continue and I don't (right now) see how it's going to get better. I wish I COULD see a light at the end of the tunnel--but it would probably just be an oncoming train. LOL!
I guess what I'm saying is, the answer to the question of New Deal versus the War doesn't really apply to our situation today, it's just a game of ping pong for idealogues.
I'm hoping that Obama will work on creating a new service corps and manufacturing base built around alternative energy/green transportation and updating aging infrastructure. He's certainly talked the talk on this, now it's just time to hope he walks the walk. There are millions and millions of potential jobs in this area and if we turn American ingenuity seriously to improving the efficiency and practicality of alternative energy forms, I think Al Gore's laughable goal of getting all of our electricity from renewable sources within ten years would be, well, probably still laughable, but a lot less so.
We're the Saudi Arabia of wind over here.
I hope so too, but there are too many vested interests in the continuing use of oil.
did you know for instance that the two biggest shareholders of Citigroup are the Abu Dhabi government and the Saudi Royal family? "
And when Citi was given $20 billion of US taxpayers funds, the first thing they did is "invest" $8 billion of it in Dubai's government infrastructure works.....
I did not know that, but can't say it surprises me in the least. ~sighs~
We are so screwed. On the upside, I think a lot of people are waking up to that fact, but whether a bunch of pissed-off individuals are enough to overcome the entrenched special interests in Washington... who knows? Probably not likely. I do think Obama is more aware than many politicians of the magnitude of what has to be done, but he's still a politician and whether he has the guts (or the political capital) to actually pull it off remains to be seen. I expect to be disappointed, but do not expect, at least, to be stuck in the state of perpetual outrage I've lived in for the last eight years.
Thank you Pam *sarcasm smiley*
Frankly you are one of the last I would expect such kind of reaction to my words.
Just wanted to remind you American citizens that when some words cause such an acute reaction, they usually touch on beliefs that do not correlate to reality.
I think I am done with this thread, see you guys on other ones.
Happy New Year everybody
Wow, that comment wasn't directed at you personally Misha, I was just agreeing that we don't really have real discussion in this country anymore. I apologize it sounded like I was attacking you. I didn't mean it like that. I really do feel like people in general just take sides and don't listen to each other. But I didn't mean Misha is the problem!
LOL Lita, I always forgive pretty women
And this is pure economics I am talking here. And what makes you thinking I did not do any research on the subject? I usually don't state my opinions on the topics I don't have opinions about
It's OK, Misha.... I pretty much said that because I wanted to make a point--it has occurred to me that most of the voting public just goes on off the cuff assertions--which probably means they really shouldn't be voting or even have opinions. LOL...
And a certain ex-Georgian--I knew had such strong opinions on America and her politics which were so unwarranted I no longer speak to him.... Probably I transferred some of that onto you, sorry!
I never say my opinions are 'correct.' I don't think I even offered a really stated opinion, lol.
I would say that these matters are complex and not given to ad hoc generalizations in community forums for the purpose of spewing one's political affiliations, ahem...
And also I know how much research went into your last answer, oh, say, on a certain education forum, which on many levels was not 'correct,' so of course I agree with you on your point of devil's advocacy.
The new deal had some positives about it, but the problem lies even deeper. It was the inability of the rich to do their duty of providing for the poor. If you're a Christian, you're commanded by the Bible to give to the poor even if it means giving the shirt off your back. By and large America has been up until recently 'mostly' Christian as far as personal beliefs are concerned. When the churches refused to fend for the poor and help a struggling nation out, even after the depression (it's still going on today) then the government stepped in. Should it have? That's up for debate. But what is 100% certain is the lack of care for the lesser fortunate by the money hording celebrities and doofuses running wall street and the auto business.
Hmm, T. Keeley-
Don't think we can specifically blame the churches on the Great Depression, or even the rich, who were losing their shirts and killing themselves over their losses. Understand your sentiment, however...
I think it goes even deeper than this, personally.
I agree--the hording celebrities should give up all their money to the poor--well said. Down with Hollyweird.
In short, the Great Depression had everything to do a contraction of the supply of money and nothing to do with greed--the gov't contracted credit when it needed to expand...good old Milton Friendman.
I should add that the United States is THE most generous country in the world. It's people privately give more money to charity than any other nation. It's people also give the most in public monies to the poor through it's (wasteful) social engineering and wealth redistribution mechanisms.
Spew, spew, spew... I knew it was coming..
Don't take this personally. I just really don't understand how you certain types of (cuz you are) conservatives (American..I should say, too) think. Do you see yourselves as cheerleaders for patriotism or something?
So, I guess things like the Patriot Act really tear up your affiliations, then (just waiting for Scott Mandrake to show up now).
I guess I don't think about it or pray about it so much--I just AM (American), and can't be anything else, rather the way I see Edith Wharton or F. Scott Fitzgerald as completely American writers.
OR this with you is all a marketing act, lol, which I have not certainly ruled out.
I never said I was a conservative, Lita. I suppose it wasn't directed at me, but if it was, I'm certainly not. I won't blame churches, but, as I've heard many a minister say, if the people who 'could' step in an aid the less fortunate would, te government would be less liable to do so. I mean, heck, I live at the practically poverty level and money has been very, very tight. It'd be nice for Tom Cruise to give me 20 grand to pay off some debts just so I can breathe easier
Besides, with his wallet, he could do that for many, many people, and never feel it!
No, I knew you were not a conservative--it was not directed at you. As I recall, you see yourself as something of a libertarian.
I just think, as big as the mechanisms are, and as entwined as our institutions are--the cause of the Great Depression isn't something I wanna speculate on in a few sentences here.
And money is tight on everybody these days--don't feel alone! We're just waiting to win the lottery, lol!
I'm probably more socialist anymore than libertarian, although I dislike the government and the free market...perhaps I'm anarchic?? I bet I'm probably more that way than anything else
Maybe we need to go back to nordic tribes or something...like Beowulf. I'd rather be there on some days than here
Don't speculate...it's what keeps me up til 4 AM these days...sigh
Citi and MBNA, the two top credit card companies in the world, are the devil. I mean, the Antichrist. Seriously, we've got people here worrying about Obama and the mark of the Beast and all that crap, but the real monster is a little piece of plastic that you can have for the cost of your soul and a signature. Rent the movie "Maxed Out" sometime. You'll be horrified, I promise.
MBNA was Bush's largest campaign contributor, and under Bush credit card regulation has been completely gutted. It isn't just cards either--MBNA and Citi between then own most of the PayDay loan shops that cover urban neighborhoods now like leprosy.
This kind of thing used to be illegal. It's a lot more fun though to bash poor people and stupid people and people who made unfortunate choices than it is to acknowledge that the world is being run by demonic overlords.
Americans love to get self-righteous. Until they are in a mess themselves--then we all want help. It's all about personal responsibility until it gets personal. When you can't eat or get cancer and can't pay the bill or the bank comes for your home because you lose YOUR job, then suddenly any helping hand looks good. Until that day, everyone thinks his or her neighbor is an asshole and the cause of their own troubles.
I think it is just going to get freakin' hellish here.
It was my 'foreigners' statement Misha didn't like.
It was a generalization in itself, mea culpa, mea culpa... Come back, St. Misha.
Anyway, I think spending money fixed the last depression, but spending money into this one is going to make it worse, because the problem has come about by lending non-existent money to people who could not pay it back in the first place. Doing more of the same is going to create a bigger problem.
The Treasury has just over committed the first $350 billion bailout money
I heard a guy on the radio make a suggestion to one of these financial geniuses that made sense to me, but the genius never gave the guy a straight answer, he just said, "That won't work," the end, no explanation, like the guy was too big a moron and would never understand if he tried to explain.
Anyhow, this guy's idea was that instead of handing over $700 billion to the very people who got us into this mess (banks and investment firms), why not give that same money directly to working class Americans to pay off their credit card debts and their homes? Doing that would have three immediate effects: 1) The banks would get a big infusion of money as people paid them off, 2) housing values would immediately stabilize, and 3) people would immediately have money to spend on cars and crap like before, only this time the money would be tied to real value instead of imaginary stuff.
The bank guy just said no. No explanation. And I know that lots of folks would say that is unfair, that is promoting irresponsibility. But what does handing over billions to irresponsible banks do if it doesn't promote more irresponsible behavior? I thought this guy's idea at least had a chance of working.
Actually we've poured over a trillion into banks already if you count Citi and AIG.
Kinda pisses me off.
Kinda pisses me off too
What is going to bite worse is when it doesn't do any good. There are two more asset bubbles that will burst in 2009, both of them potentially bigger than the residential housing bubble.
This would be the private equity bubble and the commercial property bubble.
Look 'em up on google - not pretty reading......
I think the UK is in even worse condition than the US. As much as 20% of Great Britain PLC's GDP came from the financial services industry. We don't make a damn thing any more and the entire country works in the services industries. So we are looking at a potential 20% decline in GDP. No more brand new nukular warships
Our resident google search authority has spoken! Take cover Great Britain.
If it is too hard for you here is the link -
Everything you always wanted to know but were too stupid to find out
Or you can read what I have written -
http://blog.luxuryproperty.com/luxury-r … tion-2009/
http://markpknowles.com/random-hot-post … p-is-this/
http://internationalpropertyinvestment. … -fall-more
What pisses you off Pam?
You knew it wouldn't work even before it started, I remember discussing this with you
And I agree to that guy you mentioned, giving out money to people wouldn't work either. Even leaving aside the source and real value of that "money", what gonna happen when people spend it, too?
"What is going to bite worse is when it doesn't do any good. There are two more asset bubbles that will burst in 2009, both of them potentially bigger than the residential housing bubble."
I hate to be cynical, but I don't even think Paulson is trying to fix it at this point--I think he's just covering up bank failures and helping out his friends. Most of the money has been given to banks as "cash infusions" with no requirement that the banks reveal how they used it, and/or was used to broker forced sales of failing banks to other slightly stronger banks. This is what happened to the bank I worked for--they asked for TARP money in November and the Treasury Dept said no because they were about to be seized by FDIC. So instead they gave the TARP money to a regional bank that was slightly stronger on the condition it be used to buy up our bank. They didn't really want our bank, but to get the TARP money they had to agree to that. In January of 2009 when the sale is final, the remaining jobs at the bank where I used to work will likely be eliminated--the other bank has its own corporate HQ, it doesn't need one here.
That's all well and good as damage control, but really it's just spin doctoring. Banks are failing but the Treasury Dept doesn't want a bunch of FDIC seizures on the news. There's no transparency (very little anyway) in how the TARP money has been used. All we know for sure is that it hasn't been used the way they told us they were going to use it.
Beyond that they aren't talking. Which is, you know, FUBAR.
Oh yeah--and add this to your list: The mortgage meltdown isn't done yet either. Another HUGE group of Alt-A loans are destined to go bad in early 2009. These were the "creative financing" 0% down 5-year reverse amortization loans that were made to people in big cities in CA, FL, and NY so they could afford to buy million dollar homes on the assurance they could refi in five years when the house had appreciated. Now the houses have DE-preciated, many of these people can't even make interest only payments anymore, and they are about to reset to include the huge principal payment too.
Oh I know. Peak resets should come in December 2009 according to Credit Suisse - and they should know
Still, the commercial mortgage losses will probably outweigh the residential. Odds are it will mean nationalizing all the major UK banks next year.
The commercial developers are already knocking on the White House door asking for a bailout. Unlikely I think - the money will be given to the banks holding the loans instead.
pgrundy, thanks for suggesting "Maxed Out"...I put it on our Blockbuster queue to be mailed to us shortly. I'm always up for a good documentary, especially one that will scare me out of spending more money!
No problem. I saw it kind of by accident on HBO one afternoon, and I was really shocked and disturbed by how ruthless and amoral these companies are and the damage they do, without regret, to ordinary people. I knew credit cards were bad, but I didn't know they were as bad as they actually are. Elizabeth Warren, consumer advocate and also the recently appointed head of the TARP oversight committee is interviewed in it. I really like her. She's very much on the side of ordinary people. Geez, somebody needs to be!
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