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Do you believe that a financial crisis is coming in the near future?
Global Currency Reset. The collapse of the dollar. A severe stock market crash twice as bad as 1929. I'm hearing from so many that it is a certainty. Do you expect one to take place soon?
As a person n the financial world, there are twice as many checks and balances today as there were in 2008 (hard to believe, but yes). The CFPB was established to blunt the craziness of things like the mortgage derivatives market and the like. Some of it is petty. But after what we've been through, a little extra regulation is not too much to bear. The currency market has also been strengthened somewhat. Not a lot bulls out there right now. If we could ever get Glass Steagall back, among other regulations, I would feel even better.
Financial regulation took a bit of a hit this week when the concept of a "systemically important financial institution" took a hit with a ruling by a Federal Court District Judge. By important the Feds mean that a failure could bring down the whole system. So the bank reform rule put in a few years allows them to step in based on rather arbitrary rules. That may sound onerous, but it is necessary. The company in question this time is Met Life. They claimed they should not be under Federal oversight because the Feds failed to do a cost benefit analysis. Without getting into specifics, that's a ridiculous argument. But they won. Hopefully it's not the first step back to the future. Look for large financial institutions and insurers to start challenging the Feds in court. Write your Congressperson and Senators ASAP.
I don't think anyone can predict it for sure. It they could, they would make a fortune shorting stock. I do know our economy is sick and the signs are clear. We have record debt over 19 trillion, our interest rate is near 0 and have been there for 7 years. The QE by the feds have made things worse. Our manufacturing has been disappearing, not many things are made in the USA. Our GDP is running a meager 2% which means our productivity as a country is stagnant. Our trade deficits with China and other countries are also rising. The labor participation rate is near record low, a better indicator than the 5% unemployment rate. Businesses are outsourcing jobs and moving plants oversea to take advantage of lower taxes.
One last thing, a business cycle is typically 7 to 8 years. We are 8 years since the last recession 2008. You decide.
I haven't the faintest idea and neither, I suspect, does anybody else. We have to keep in mind that trained economists have predicted 14 of the last three recessions. They have an equally poor record with regard to booms. Remember, economists were created to make weather forecasters look good.
I suppose anything is possible.
However right now the American dollar is strong. Some might add it's too strong which keeps other countries from buying as many American made products.
Interest rates remain low and the stock market is still flying high. Housing prices are rising. Inflation is low and unemployment is around 5%. Having said that we do now live in a global economy.
Should China's economy spiral down it will probably take our economy down quite a bit. China has trillions of U.S. dollars and we are indebted to them. If several European nations collapsed that would affect us as well.
These days a lasting rumor is enough to make the market fluctuate.
The stocks rise/ fall based upon "what people think might happen".
Supposedly the big banks and such that caused the recent crash to begin with are even bigger than they were during that time.
So yeah, probably.
The official unemployment rate is 5%, but it was modified to not count discouraged workers, those who shifted to disability (which is up 10 million or so in 8 years), retired early. If you use the unemployment measurement we used in 1980, we're at 15% unemployment.
You see confirmation of this in the workforce participation rate that's fallen to 62%, a rate we saw in the 1970s.
We never got out of the Great Recession that started in 2007 - it has only be under-reported because we have a black Democrat President. If a Republican president is elected, you'll suddenly see reports of homeless encampments, joblessness, etc - and all blamed on the guy who just took office.
The "new" economic problems we're starting to see globally are that the interest rates dropped to zero, bail outs with borrowed money and other economic boosters that raised economic from negative to barely positive have all run out of steam - so we're back to negative numbers. And all the government interventions have thus failed to keep us from looking like it is OK.
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And, will it be the US at the helm?
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