What is your gut feeling about who will be the next president? Why?
It's very early in the political game, for sure, but people already are forming opinions about who might make it. I don't want to know who you favor, I want to know who you think will win and why. This is for all of the parties, not just Republicans. Just curious.
Barring any economic melt down or international crisis I believe Hilary Clinton is most likely going to win.
It has less to do with her as an individual and more to do with the platform of the parties offerings at this time. (Affordable health care, raise in minimum wage, restructuring student loans, immigration reform with a path to citizenship, "marriage equality", The Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act , Pro-Choice, Maintaining Social Security and Medicare as is, more Climate Control initiatives, restoring voting rights provisions that were taken out of the Voting Rights Act.)
Essentially there are "goodies" for every demographic of the nation.
On the Republican side ( Repeal Obamacare, restructure Social Security and Medicare, cut taxes, defund Planned Parenthood, remove some government regulations on business, strengthen our borders, tear up the Iran deal, move forward with the Keystone Pipeline, and put boots on the ground to fight ISIS and possibly Syria or Iran.)
Generally people vote their pocketbooks and their ideology.
When one looks at the party platforms as opposed to the candidates I believe polling suggests there are more people in favor of what Democrats are promising and in Hilary's case her husband Bill Clinton is still the most popular living ex president. Rightly or wrongly some people will vote for her with the idea of with Hill you get Bill mentality.
Another group of people will vote for her in an effort to make history.
However I believe most Democrats and Republicans vote for their party's candidates 99% of the time. It's "swing voters" and "independents" who tip the scale. These are the ones who will be examining the platforms/solutions rather than voting for/against the individual because they like or dislike them.
With 15 months to go before the 2016 presidential election I think a person would have to have ESP to accurately guess who will win the presidency. So much can happen in a few hours to change things, and we have 15 months. Things could change radically, and even those people we expect to receive their party's nomination may not for some reason.
I don't mean to be morbid but it only takes a few seconds to die, and we have 15 months to wait before the election. With so many candidates in the race, who can say that one or more of them will still be here to vote, much less campaign by November 2016?
The world is going to change a lot over the next 15 months. Things that seem important now may not seem that way next month let alone 15 moths from now, because other more pressing issues may arise. New information about one or more of the current candidates may surface to rule them out, or a dark horse could rise, ruling all the current candidates out.
I really think it's far too early to even think about who may be our next president, much less try to accurately predict who s/he will be. If Mr. Trump weren't so entertaining I wouldn't even be thinking about presidential politics and doubt a lot of other people would be either. Trump attracted an audience of some 24 million people last Thursday night. Without him on the floor chances are the audience would have been lucky to be 1 million. Networks were thinking maybe 15 million because of Trump's participation, but the actual viewers far exceeded that.
Like any sporting event, which is how many of the American people seem to view politics, a surprise winner may rise in the last few minutes of the primaries and that will naturally affect who is even eligible to be president out of all those people running right now. There really are too many variables at this point in time for anyone's gut to have an accurate feeling. Gut feelings change along with the situation too.
Since I believe the powers that be (not us voters) actually choose our president, and that campaigns and voting are all charades to make us all think we actually have a say when really it's just crowd control, I think Hillary has already been chosen. Barring some disaster, regardless of all the posturing by other candidates of either party, Hillary will be it. After her (2024) there will likely be an Hispanic chosen. That should take us to 2032 . . .
Hilary of course- about time the US have a woman president
Anything, could happen between now and election day.
Bush: all I can think of is fool me once shame on Bush 1
fool me twice shame on the US Supreme Court
Fool me three time times, you can't fix stupid!!
Bush is in favor of putting the Keystone Pipeline across the US without benefit to the US or our people
Walker: was the young, hyper-ambitious executive of ... The initial John Doe investigation centered on the discovery that members of ... insisted he had no knowledge of any of the abuses going on under his nose.
Cruz: Also in favor of putting the Keystone Pipeline across the US to benefit his native country. He was born in Canada and that is where his loyalties lie.
Christie: “Federal law enforcement officials have launched a criminal investigation of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s administration, pursuing allegations that the governor’s staff broke the law when they quashed grand jury indictments against Christie supporters,”
Perry: Perry launches a second bid for the White House on Thursday, he will likely become the first credible major-party candidate to run for president while under indictment.
As for the rest: put them in a bag shake it up and pour them out and the first one out is probably the nominee.
As for winning, only time will tell.
I don't think that I could narrow it down to one, but I think I can narrow it down to three. None are endorsements, just my observations:
* Although much is not going her way I never count Clinton's out. They have money, power, and political expertise.
* Although he seems to be taking a whipping, I don't count Trump out. He plays to win and he wins a lot. He has the money and the ego to carry him through to the end.
* Jeb - while I think that a third Bush is a huge negative, like the Clintons I can't count the Bushes out. They have money, power, and a strong political base. Even though Bush the son was vilified, he is still well like by many.
Except for most of us who live in Florida and understand the damage he did here when he was Governor. He completely undid our educational system and more.
Don't misunderstand me. I in no way want Jeb as President. Many comments in this thread reflects peoples desires. My comments are what I think will happen.
Yes, I understand. I was just trying to clarify with info I know from sad experience. And you are right, many do like him, despite his flaws. I guess you could say that about every candidate!!
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