A Recession's New Definition

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   GA Andersonposted 2 years ago

   Shooting from the hip . . .
   
   I recently heard some blurbs saying the White House is now arguing with the definition of "a recession." Could this be true? Could that explain Pres. Biden's recent calls to Bill Clinton?
   
   GA

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   1. 82

      Sharlee01posted 2 years agoin reply to this

      Well, I don't think old Bill's ploy will work for Biden--- look them in the eye and tell them "I did not have sex with that woman".   (I sort of have assumed you may have  hinted Joe may be getting advice from Clinton on how to sell a load of crap)  Or am i far off?
      
      I assume most Americans will not buy into this administration's new definition of what constitutes a recession.  We have done well with the definition we have used for many years.
      
      The days of looking serious, sounding serious, and maybe throwing in a creepy whispery voice have become a stale ploy... A ploy that in my view,  Biden does not have the skills to pull off. I mean Bill Clinton was a great speaker and could sell a mistruth. Biden, not so much. Hopefully, the White House will be wise enough not to have Biden push the new definition of recession.  Hey, have you not heard we are in a transition --- this transition means believing what you're told, not what you know to be true.
      
      In regard to the economy, many economists over the past year have predicted the recession we are currently in and offered views of what we may be in store for even as far as 2024.
      
      Biden might sell his administration's new definition to some Americans,  as he  tried to sell this  memorable gem to some --- "The cost of an automobile, it's kind of back to what it was before the pandemic."  Source of quote  -  https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/l … =joe-biden
      
      I think Americans are smart enough to realize we are in a recession when they pay their utility bills, check out at the grocery store, stick that credit card in at the pump, or have looked at the price of a new car.  They won't need any definition to determine whether the economy is in the tank.
      
      In my view, Biden takes political lying to a new low, but he is no Bill Clinton when it comes to pulling it off.

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   2. 75

      wildernessposted 2 years agoin reply to this

      I don't know about phone calls, but I caught a blurb on TV with Pelosi declaring we were not in a recession.
      
      Thing is, a recession cannot happen on our watch, and if it does then it is not a recession.  Terminology is everything...we'll rename everything anymore so as not to look bad.

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      1. 82

         Sharlee01posted 2 years agoin reply to this

         I guess next the Biden administration may need to produce a suitable dictionary for the "New Transition". And send one to every home in America.
         
         re·ces·sion
         /rəˈseSH(ə)n/
         Learn to pronounce
         noun
         1.
         a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
         "the country is in the depths of a recession"
         
         "SEN. RICK SCOTT: If you go to Google and you put in "recession," and you look at the definition, I think it's two quarters of negative GDP. So I think it's pretty basic. But they don't want to acknowledge what's happening. By the way, when we have negative GDP, what's that mean? That means you make less money. That means people are going to get laid off. That means the value of things are going to go down, like your home. That's what's happening. And by the way, it's happening. And it's happening because the Biden agenda. They're not reducing taxes, they're increasing taxes. They're not reducing regulation, they're increasing regulation. We have the highest inflation in 40 years. I was in a roundtable with Florida businesspeople this weekend. They're all struggling. They're struggling with supply chains. Biden's done nothing on that. They're struggling with inflation. Biden's done nothing on that. They can't get workers. Biden's done nothing on that. This is a do-nothing president."
         
         I think Scott summed it up.

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2. 69

   IslandBitesposted 2 years ago

   https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerl … 682fadc1bf
   
   Already In Recession? Close But Not Quite In July 2022
   
   
   
   Real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2022, and it looks like it will drop in the second quarter as well. That does not mean for certain that the economy is in recession as this article is written (July 2022), but it raises serious concerns. The evidence is that we are not in recession, but certainly close enough to be worried.
   
   A recession is not defined as two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, though that’s a common rule of thumb. (“Real” means inflation adjusted to economists.) The actual definition comes from the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. They explain that “a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
   
   The committee reviews a number of measures, including GDP but also placing substantial weight on employment and personal income less transfers, with lesser weight to other statistics.
   
   No, We’re Not In A Recession Yet: Strong Job Market Keeping Economy Safe For Now, Goldman Says
   
   https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanpo … b82faa72e8
   
   Economists at Goldman Sachs on Monday doubled down on their belief that the economy will avoid a recession this year thanks to the strength of the labor market, which has shown signs of slowing down but continues to outperform expert projections—even as a growing number of indicators suggest the nation has already plunged into recession.
   
   Is that the definition you're looking for?

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   1. 83

      GA Andersonposted 2 years agoin reply to this

      So, a recession is not just consecutive quarterly declines, as economists have been saying all these decades?
      
      Now, it's 'Sure, that's how we explained it before, but now it's different, there's more to it,' right?
      
      To be clear, the OP wasn't questioning whether we are in a recession, simply that this administration is pushing a new explanation of the term.
      
      A "common rule of thumb" is no longer good enough to get the concept? Do we need more 'thumbs' or should we get rid of any others we have?
      
      And you threw in a graph too. Hells bells Islandmom, you're gonna pull a muscle. ;-)
      
      *I'm not looking for any definition, I just go by what the economists have say, they know more about it than I do
      
      GA

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      1. 69

         IslandBitesposted 2 years agoin reply to this

         Im only asking what is the new one the WH is pushing? I honestly have no idea.
         
         Or you mean the one that is not new, but it is not just a mere rule of thumb?
         
         *I'm not looking for any definition, I just go by what the economists have say, they know more about it than I do
         
         *Then dont ask me, you should read what they said.
         
         
         My muscles are ok, but be careful with that hip.

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