Inflation, what is up with that?
There is good inflation and their is bad inflation. What we experienced from 2009 - 2021 was the good type of inflation, between 1 and 3% a year. What we are experiencing now between 5 and 9% inflation is bad inflation. What we experienced in the 1980s, 10 to 15% inflation is terrible inflation. And, what Russia, Argentina, and a few other countries are experiencing, in excess of 15% annual inflation is catastrophic inflation.
There are many causes for inflation, the overall increase in prices, but rarely is a president at fault, and for the most part, President Biden falls into that category regardless of how much his opponents would like their words blaming him for it to be true.
THIS is a symptom of why we have inflation today - the effects of the pandemic along with supply chain decisions made back in the 1970s
https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/202 … ad-vpx.cnnSummer somewhat disagrees with CNN. And predicted what we see now. He clearly lays some blame on the Biden adminstration.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/economy/ … index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-polic … inflation/
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/po … r-00023430
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles … pany-greed
The current economist predictions of a possible recession.
April 11 2022 ‘Risk of a recession is rising’ as problems just keep ‘cascading’ throughout the economy, economist says
https://fortune.com/2022/04/11/recessio … st-survey/
April 10, 2022 Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say
https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession- … 1649592002
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/11/10921175 … -is-comingI don't understand the point you are trying to make with all of those links. All they show is what is already known and not under dispute. Yes, Larry Summers was right about the stimulus causing some (a burst is how I think he put it) inflation.
None of them address the fact that the stimulus part of inflation was both short-lived and small.
Yes, we know the risk of recession is higher today for a whole host of reasons, one linked to the Fed and none linked to Biden.
Also, I don't see where CNN took an official position for Summers to disagree with. I seriously doubt that Summers would disagree with the reporting in the link I provided since it is silent on whether the stimulus was responsible or not,At one point you called my view of what I felt added to inflation misinformation. In my view, Biden's policies (Biden is the president, he is responsible ultimately for signing what the Congress put in front of him) were part of what led to inflation. Especially the stimulus and the child tax credit I explained I gleaned my view from economists. Saying, " some economists agreed with my view, some did not... I offered the links to provide information I read, which helped me come by my view.
This article and interview make good sense to me.
Feb 4th 2022 Summers addressed the stimulus effect on inflation
"SUMMERS: It’s two blades of a scissors. I’m not sure that we would have the inflation if there had never been a pandemic and, even if there had been a pandemic, without the overwhelming stimulus that was applied well into recovery — during 2021. We had an economy where income was running short by $50 billion a month because of the pandemic, and we injected $150 billion to $200 billion a month into that economy. It’s perhaps not surprising that that’s led to an overflow of demand, which has generated inflation that on the CPI [Consumer Price Index] measure has risen to 7 percent." https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ … e-summers/
I think it is time we agree to disagree on the subject."were part of what led to inflation." - True, a small. temporary part, which you have tried to turn into something much bigger. When you try that, it is called disinformation.
I'll have to read the rest of Summers' statement to see why he didn't mention the much more obvious and long-term supply-chain disruptions.
Here is what I got out of that. While YOU focused ONLY on the stimulus as causing inflation, Summers looks at much more (to start with).
We have an economy that is overheating, the clearest indicator of that is the ratio of vacancies to unemployment
- Workers are quitting their jobs at record rates because of high-quality job opportunities, and layoffs are at extraordinarily low levels. Wherever you look, there is a shortage of workers(the stimulus certainly didn't do that) Labor is in short supply, putting upward pressure on wages and the inflation process
- The inflation challenge is magnified by a variety of supply-chain bottlenecks So, we have a classic strong demand, limited supply inflationary situation that has developed over the last year. (Again, NOT stimulus related)
YET, and this seems very confusing and contradictory, Summers first says the above; that all of those factors were pushing inflation up. Then his says " I’m not sure that we would have the inflation if there had never been a pandemic " (meaning the pandemic caused inflation) followed immediately with words that sound very much like it was ONLY the stimulus which caused all of the inflation.
That leaves me extremely confused. Why did he first say the inflation happened for "these" reasons and then turn around and say "no, no, it was the stimulus which caused inflation"? It doesn't make sense to me.
The real answer, provided by other economists, is that there was a core inflation that was going to happen regardless of the stimulus - around 3 to 5%. This is born out by Europe's, who didn't have a stimulus, inflation numbers. The remainder then might be attributed to the stimulus.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 … ion-so-di/
Then I found this about Summers' prediction:The first imperative, in assessing Summers’s contribution, is to clarify what he predicted. Appearing on Bloomberg’s “Wall Street Week” show on March 19, 2021, he said, “I think there is about a one-third chance that inflation will significantly accelerate over the next several years, and we’ll be in a stagflationary situation like the one that materialized between 1966 and 1969.” Summers said that there was also a one-third chance “that we won’t see inflation, but the reason we won’t see it is that the Fed hits the brakes hard, markets get very unstable, the economy skids downwards close to recession.” Finally, he added, there was “a one-third chance that the Fed and the Treasury will get what they are hoping for, and we’ll get rapid growth, which will moderate in a non-inflationary way.”
SO, as it turns out, Summers set it up such that no matter what happened, he was going to be right, lol. So much for Summers' prognostications.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-colu … -and-biden"Wherever you look, there is a shortage of workers(the stimulus certainly didn't do that) Labor is in short supply, putting upward pressure on wages and the inflation process"
It didn't? What encouraged older workers to retire, if not the stimulus coupled with jobs disappearing? What caused the massive increase in wages if not an unemployment program paying workers to stay home? What caused supply chain bottlenecks at our docks and highways if not workers staying home?
All of these were govt. demands and policies, not an unthinking disease. Some were useful in the short run, but most of those policies went far beyond that, causing the very problems you blame on a virus."What encouraged older workers to retire, " - Definitely NOT Biden's stimulus! They were retiring in HUGE numbers on Trump's watch.
"What caused the massive increase in wages if not an unemployment program paying workers to stay home? " - You have been DEBUNKED several times on that disinformation. It wasn't true when you first stated it and it is even less true today
"What caused supply chain bottlenecks at our docks and highways if not workers staying home? " - Are you actually trying to suggest this is ONLY America's problem? Please, get real.
There are other economists that share Summer's views on what caused inflation. I used him purposely, he leans left, and I did not want to offer perhaps someone that leans rights opinion. Can't win with the liberal mind.
I find your views on this non-logical. The stimulus cash (both stimulus payments) poured into the economy helped promote the supply and demand problem, a problem that was already becoming a problem due to Trump's first free cash. Why the hell would Biden pour more fuel on the fire. Of course, supply and demand was a big part of the complicated puzzle that caused inflation. And I am sure we COULD see more problems arise that could add to the problem. Hopefully not.
Larry Summer's and other economists have pointed the finger at the Biden policies. You asked me to produce economists to support my view. I did... End of story.
I feel Larry Summer's has made a well-educated assessment, and I CHOOSE to believe his scenario."There are other economists that share Summer's views on what caused inflation." - [i[Name some more now that Summers' has been destroyed. Remember, Summer's gave what is happening today only a ONE-THIRD chance of happening. He gave two other scenarios as well, each have a ONE-THIRD chance of happening. Summers is no longer credible on this subject.[/i]
I'm sorry, Eso, but the "effect of the Pandemic" was that people got sick and hundreds of thousands died.
Our response to the Pandemic was to lockdown the country (slowing production and the movement of goods) and inject trillions of dollars into the economy without any corresponding increase in productivity (including the moving of goods we term the supply chain). That is what caused inflation, not the death of thousands of people.
While it may be useful to ignore that simple fact, allowing the comment that Biden did not cause inflation, it remains that it was governmental policies and actions that caused the inflation we are seeing, not a disease killing people.Your answer is contradictory on the face of it. First you say the pandemic had nothing to do with inflation and then you follow up with an example of his it is.
Let me try this. BUT FOR the pandemic, there would not be the kind of inflation we have today. No pandemic, no response, no inflation.If you think I said the Pandemic had something to do with inflation then you can't read.
Unfortunately for your premise that liberals won't give money away without a pandemic, it is patently false. On top of that there is no natural law that says the correct, proper response to a pandemic is to flood the economy with trillions of dollars. Not even Biden can find such a law; that he did so anyway is 100% on him.You do know you are speaking gibberish, don't you?
You know who doesn't speak gibberish, Larry Summers. From Sharlee's recent post "SUMMERS: It’s two blades of a scissors. I’m not sure that we would have the inflation if there had never been a pandemic
More non-gibberish. From the Summers' interview:
GAZETTE: I saw a piece in The New York Times not long ago that described this as “a strange, contradictory moment in the economy.” We have inflation at 40-year highs, people quitting jobs, supply-chain woes, yet we have unemployment nearing pre-pandemic levels and record numbers of jobs created over the last year. Do you view these signs as contradictory or do they make sense given your understanding of the forces that are at work?
SUMMERS: It’s, obviously, the pandemic.Of course it is the pandemic. The virus got into the Biden's brain and forced him to provide trillions of dollars in giveaways. It forced him to provide unemployment beyond what could be earned. It forced him to give a child tax credit. It forced him to forgive rent payments. Pretty smart virus, wasn't it?
Eso, you say you have a background in economics; how can you sit there and say that a virus, not our response to it in flooding the economy with money, caused inflation? You know what increasing the money supply (demand) without increasing supply will do, yet you still claim a virus did it all. You know better, just as I do. You know why wages rose, and it wasn't a virus in the economy doing it. You know why the supply chain broke down, and it wasn't a virus stalling machinery at the docks or preventing trucks to run. You know why the supply fell, and it wasn't a virus closing businesses.
It was the policies of our government, plain and simple.Please tell the truth, instead of making things up.
"how can you sit there and say that a virus, not our response to it in flooding the economy with money, caused inflation? " - [i]You clearly need to take a few courses in logic. I will repeat myself. BUT FOR the pandemic, there would have been no response to cause inflation. Therefore, it has to be the pandemic that is behind the inflation.
It really is a very simply concept.
Finally, i bit of good news on the inflation front. I hope it repeats itself in the coming months.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/11/business … index.html
Also, the data shows that President Biden was right in putting inflation on Putin and his war. Putin caused a $20/bbl rise in oil prices.Every economy in the world is experiencing inflationary pressure. Biden can't be responsible for all of them.
Sure he can, just ask any Trump Republican, lol.
Right, so now I know why my favorite Spanish bar has just put the price of beer up. Impeach Biden!
It is well known today that President Biden has only marginal, if any, responsibility for today's inflation. But what is? Some of this has been discussed before.
Initial On-Set of 2021 Inflation, according to the experts:
1. In 2021, with the economy expanding, demand picked-up sharply. Supply, however, could not keep up. Why?Because of the enormous amounts of money pumped into the economy over the last 2 years, without accompanying supply increases. Had people worked for that money, the supply would have increase a similar amount, but they didn't. Instead it was simply handed to them without any production required.
As long as you keep repeating that same conservative false narrative, I will keep replying that studies show the American Rescue Plan did much more good than harm and that it a small, TEMPORARY impact on inflation.
"Had people worked for that money, the supply would have increase a similar amount, but they didn't." - The problem with that claim is that 1) you have no evidence to back that up and 2) it defies common senseYes, of course - it defies common sense that injecting trillions into an economy without adding trillions worth of product does not cause inflation. Clue: that is almost a textbook definition of how to cause inflation. Increased demand with falling supply (as people were locked in their own homes rather than producing products/services to purchase with all that money)...well, it will ALWAYS result in inflation. But you know and understand that - why the denial now?
Yeah - giving those trillions (mostly to people that did not need it) has sure produced a short lived, TEMPORARY inflation. Let me know when it ends, sometime in the next few years.Textbook Definition?? Nope, sorry it is not. A stimulus is the preferred way to get out of most recessions. The pandemic, however, was a different breed of cat altogether.
I have asked before, but you have yet to explain that if you are right, then why didn't the American Rescue Plan cause high, long-term inflation?? Keep in mind, in reality, it cause only a small, temporary increase.
Now, repeat after me, the ARP caused only a small, temporary increase. You will probably need to keep repeating until the truth of the matter dawns on you.
Alternatively, find me some reputable links (I know you won't because you can't) links to studies that support your false belief.
News Alert: You cannot argue with Tom Parsons. CNN's governmental use of psychological manipulation is complete. Thorough brainwashing has occurred. Another victory has been achieved. Comrades, rejoice!
All is getting worse, not better, and much due to Biden's policies.
This would be your opinion. Many economists do not agree. Summers feels more to come because of Biden's flawed policies. Biden is destroying America. Summer's outlook is very poor on what's to come ...
Larry Summers slams Biden over inflation, ‘hipster antitrust’ policies
Famed economist Larry Summers is stepping up his criticism of President Biden’s attempts to fight inflation — warning this week that his administration’s embrace of “hipster” antitrust policies could drive prices even higher.
Summers, who served as Treasury secretary during the Clinton administration, noted the antitrust crackdown led by Biden’s Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission carries “real risks” during a period of persistent, decades-high inflation.
“Policies that attack bigness can easily be inflationary if they prevent the exploitation of economies of scale or limit superstar firms,” Summers said in a Twitter thread.
“Likewise, policy focused on protecting competitors or communities or limiting layoffs are likely to raise costs & prices,” Summers added.
The remarks represented the latest broadside from Summers, a prominent voice in Democratic circles who has nevertheless taken the Biden administration to task for its response to rising inflation.
Summers previously warned against the Biden administration’s antitrust push last December after the president and top advisers signaled plans to crack down on the largest meat producing firms and oil companies.
Summers’ Twitter thread expanded on remarks he made during an earlier interview on Bloomberg Television, where he sounded the alarm on what he described as a Biden-led “hipster antitrust” push.
Summers was reacting to a recent speech by Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, who called for enhanced antitrust enforcement and warned that “corporate power has grown to levels that leave our fellow citizens concerned and confused.”
“What is badly misguided and potentially dangerous to our economic future is the set of doctrines that people jokingly refer to as ‘hipster antitrust,’” Summers said.
Summers added that an overly aggressive antitrust policy that loses focus on protecting consumers “tilts very easily into a kind of dangerous populism.”
Biden has responded to critics who say his economic policies have contributed to the inflation surge by declaring that bringing prices down is his top domestic priority. But gas prices have skyrocketed to fresh records this week and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have yet to yield much progress.
Summers further elaborated on his stance in an interview with Axios on Monday, telling the outlet that the Fed holds the “primary responsibility” to address inflation but the Biden administration’s policies could also impact prices.
“There are micro-policies that also matter,” he added.
Biden and his team argue that a lack of competition in key sectors has allowed major players to jack up prices on consumers. But Summers disagreed with the view, warning in December that the administration’s proposed actions were “more likely to raise than lower prices.”
“The emerging claim that antitrust can combat inflation reflects ‘science denial,’” Summers wrote on Twitter. “There are many areas like transitory inflation where serious economists differ. Antitrust as an anti-inflation strategy is not one of them.”
https://nypost.com/2022/05/24/larry-sum … -policies/
Janet Yellen -- "'I was wrong': Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen concedes she misread threat of inflation"
"Yellen in March 2021 said inflation posed only a "small risk." Two months later, she said she didn't anticipate inflation would "be a problem." Earlier that spring, Biden signed his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 rescue plan into a law, providing a boost in spending that his critics blame for accelerating inflation.
"As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that boosted energy and food prices, and supply bottlenecks, that have affected our economy badly that I, at the time, didn't fully understand," Yellen told CNN. "But we recognize that now."
What America’s next recession will look like
A mild downturn may be followed by a painfully prolonged recovery
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e … -look-like
https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6306407 … show-clipsIt looks like my response to this got lost. I said that I stopped paying attention to anything Summers says since I found out (and I have point this out to you before with appropriate links) that he did not have any special insight into whether inflation would occur or not. He gave it only a 30% chance of happening like that version of his prediction said He ALSO said there was a 30% chance of inflation not being bad!!!!. Then he gave another 30% chance of something else happening, but I forgot what that was. You need to find another economist who said back in March 2021 who went ALL IN that inflation was going to get terrible and didn't equivocate like Summers did.
You bring up Yellen but didn't mention any of the other thousands of economists who agreed with her. A little disingenuous don't you think?
Biden responsible for increased regulation and shut down of oil manufacturing on Federal Reserves?
Check.
Biden responsible for an additional "stimulus" package as we were clearing the pandemic, putting trillions of new dollars into the economy, which lowers the purchasing power of all dollars?
Check.
OK then, Biden owns this inflation, and coming recession, as much as anyone.When you start telling the truth, Ken, I'll pay attention to you. But so long as you keep pushing disinformation like the above, it is a waste of my time.
Oh? Biden wasn't key in that second stimulus package? Or the "infrastructure" bill packed full of liberal ideas but precious little to repair our infrastructure?
Actually no, he was key to the third stimulus. You know, the one that had only a small, temporary effect on inflation. The first two were during the Trump administration.
You must not be thinking of the BIPARTISAN INFRASTRUCTURE bill that 10 to 12 Republicans joined. Which one were you referencing?Sorry, but the inflation period I'm going through is neither small nor temporary. It has badly damaged my standard of living and still getting worse.
Yep, that infrastructure bill that Biden pushed hard to get. Can't see that it matters who voted for it; Biden was the driving force behind it. I'll leave the partisan politics to you."Sorry, but the inflation period I'm going through is neither small nor temporary. " - [i]Are you talking about the inflation that the third stimulus had little or not impact on?
Biden pushed for a bipartisan infrastructure bill that dealt mainly with infrastructure type items. You may be conflating that with the Build Back Better infrastructure plan that went nowhere.
""My God, the fact that the majority of the Senate Republicans don't want any of these proposals even to be debated or come up for a vote, I find unconscionable," Biden said in his remarks, a rare evening address meant to reach the largest number of viewers.
"We can't fail the American people again," he continued.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/02/politics … index.htmlAn interesting take on the price of gas:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/gas- … 34707.htmlI see they are pointing finger at the proper target, which isn't a President of the United States.
Further, those on the Right seem to forget, such much of our other products require some sort of oil distillate as well as machinery to grow food and transport to get the products to market.
Bottom line, there are three things driving the world's inflation: 1) Putin's war in Ukraine making supply of oil and food scarce, 2) lack of refining capacity driving up the price of gas, and the long-standing supply chain issues.You forgot to include the injection of trillions of dollars without an equal amount of supply. Demand increases while supply falls or remains static = inflation, something we have all known for many, many years.
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