87 Days until time runs out. Poll shows the new starting line.

1. 84

   tsmogposted 8 months ago

   Ipsos looked at the swing states recently discovering some revealing information.
   
   "This Ipsos poll was conducted July 31 to August 7, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 2,045 adults age 18 or older from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin."
   
   
   
   Trump and Harris are locked in tight race among voters in swing states by Ipsos (Aug 8, 2024)
   https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/ipsos-2024- … ugust-2024
   
   "Washington DC, August 8, 2024-- A new poll of Americans living in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada finds Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical dead heat for the presidency. The survey shows that many people in swing states are concerned with inflation, immigration, and political extremism or polarization. When asked how the candidates perform on these, Trump outperforms Harris on inflation and immigration, while neither candidate has a clear lead on the issue of political extremism and polarization.
   
   The survey also explores perceptions of the candidates’ character traits, where Trump is more likely to be seen as a “patriot” but also “weird”, while Harris is more likely to be seen as “moral” and “intelligent”. For Americans living in these swing states, most would like to see Supreme Court reforms, namely a code of ethics and term limits."
   
   The givens are:
   
   Swing or battleground states = 7
   Independents = somewhere around 40%
   Swing voters = about  6% of registered voters
   
   A recent study by Data for Progress set out to identify and study those swing voters.
   
   "From April 19 to May 4, 2024, Data for Progress conducted 4,923 respondent interviews over four pooled surveys of U.S. likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. Each sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and 2020 recalled vote. The surveys were conducted in English. The margin of
   error associated with the sample size is ±1 percentage point, and crosstabs of subgroups of the sample are subject to increased margins of error."
   
   Note: Anything Biden related is affected with it is now being Harris. Will the Trump campaign be able to tie Harris to Biden with the swing voter of the swing states? It seems obvious, but is it?
   
   Measuring the Swing: Evaluating the Key Voters of 2024 by Data for Progress
   https://www.dataforprogress.org/insight … rs-of-2024
   
   
   
   Thoughts, criticisms, accolades, or commentary?
   
   What should the campaign managers do? Certainly solidify the base, but how will they go after the votes some say will make the difference?

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