The Undecided! Comic relief. A deep dive. Heads or tails? It counts.

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   tsmogposted 6 weeks ago

   The undecided
   
   Results of a nationwide New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 3,385 likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, 2024 says the undecided are 5% of the electorate. There are approximately 210 million registered voters for 2024. That means there are 10.5 million undecided voters.
   
   For the 2020 election cycle about 2/3 of the voting populace voted. So, based on that information somewhere near 7 million undecided voters will vote, though could be argued. Biden led Trump in the 2020 election popular vote with 7+ million votes. The 15 key battleground states in 2020 accounted for 31% of the vote. So, that means for those states approximately 3+ million votes are in limbo today that more than likely will affect the electoral college count.
   
   From Redfield & Wilton article that follows arrives . .
   
   For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona (by 10,457 votes), Georgia (11,779), Michigan (154,188), Minnesota (233,012), Nevada (33,596), New Mexico (99,720) Pennsylvania (80,555), and Wisconsin (20,682), while Donald Trump defeated Biden in Florida (371,686) and North Carolina (74,483).
   
   
   
   Data from . . .
   2020 National Popular Vote Tracker by The Cook Political Report
   https://www.cookpolitical.com/vote-trac … al-college
   
   Following, a quick snap shot of the undecided voters.
   
   
   
   It seems the undecided voter is imperative to the dueling campaigns as they seek to capture them while driving them to the polls. But, take a break and get a comic's view of who the undecided voter is. Lewis Black of the Daily Show offers a message to the undecided voters. Enjoy truths revealed with a chuckle or two.
   
   Lewis Black Has a Message For Undecided Voters in the 2024 Election | The Daily Show by Daily Show (Oct 15, 2024)
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY12SbF3J_4
   
   A deep dive
   
   Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 14 October 2024) by the research organization based in London Redfield & Wilton (Oct 16, 2024)
   
   In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just three weeks away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State tracker poll.
   
   This week’s iteration includes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
   
   Today, in our latest edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 9,667 swing state voters finds Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in four out of ten swing states: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada & Pennsylvania. They both lead in three states.
   
   Compared to our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris has lost her narrow leads in both Michigan and Nevada (both of which are now tied), but has maintained her one-point advantage in Wisconsin. Donald Trump has widened his leads in both Arizona (+2%, +1) and Florida (+6%, +2), but has lost his narrow one and two-point leads he held in Georgia and Pennsylvania when we last polled those two states.
   
   https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com … ober-2024/
   
   Key term/phrase is Voter Intention.
   
   See in graphic format with written analysis . . .
   
   ** 2024 Presidential Election Voting Intention - Swing States
   
   ** Vote Switching 2024 vs 2020 - Swing States
   
   ** Single Most Important Election Issue - Swing State
   
   ** Importance of Election Issue - Swing State
   
   ** Senate voter intention for . . .
   Arizona
   Florida
   Michigan
   Minnesota
   Nevada
   and,
   North Carolina Governor
   
   ** Joe Biden approval rating - Swing State
   
   ** Kamala Harris approval rating - Swing State
   
   ** Donald Trump favorability rating - Swing State
   
   ** J.D. Vance favorability rating - Swing State
   
   ** Tim Waltz favorability rating - Swing State
   
   [Note: Yes, it can be questioned are the terms approval and favorability synonymous in the poll/survey participant's eyes?]
   
   ** Changes in Financial Situation - Swing State
   
   ** Trust in Harris vs. Trump on key issues Swing states
   
   ** Republican vs. Democrat Lean on Issues - Swing State
   
   Yes, a lot to digest, yet the nation is inching closer to Nov 5th (20 days away) while we just don't know what the undecided voter have in their minds. Do they feel pressured now? What will inspire them to decide on their vote if they do decide to vote. Will it come down to a flip of the coin?
   
   Thoughts, criticisms, accolades, and/or commentary?

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      Sharlee01posted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

      "Do they feel pressured now?"
      
      No, I didn't have to do much research this time. You see, I've been living, breathing, seeing perfectly well, hearing just fine, going to the grocery store, paying my bills every month. I made sure to research the two wars we're now supporting. I saw the one we pulled out of. I've watched malls here in Michigan littered with unsold EVs, and migrants pouring across the border by the millions, while an administration of airheads does nothing. Oh, wait! A few months ago, they penned some executive orders that slowed the flow down a bit. Makes me wonder, though—did the Dems finally realize time was running out and decided to do something? I've seen some of these migrants rape and kill young women, only to find out they were let in to await asylum hearings—even with murder records in their own countries. I've watched people start weighing lies. If you have less, you’re somehow "good to go."
      
      I could go on, but I’m pretty sure independents have witnessed what I have. Yet, somehow, they haven’t managed to put all this on the "con" list. Bless their hearts. I hope many of them realize why they’re in that position—just because. And take Lewis Black’s advice: “Don’t vote, please.”
      
      In my lifetime, I've never seen a clearer picture of who to vote for—ever.

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         Willowarborposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

         "I've seen some of these migrants rape and kill young women, only to find out they were let in to await asylum hearings—"
         
         "Congress must pass smart, fast and reasonable Immigration Laws now. Law Enforcement at the Border is doing a great job, but the laws they are forced to work with are insane....".
         Donald Trump, 2018.

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            Sharlee01posted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

            From everything Trump has said, it’s clear he believes he can do a lot to fix the border without needing Congress. First, he’s focused on reinstating and expanding many of the executive actions he took during his first term. He’s confident that he can immediately restart construction on the border wall using the funding that was already allocated but never spent. He also feels he can reinstate the "Remain in Mexico" policy, which required asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their claims were processed, reducing the surge at the border.
            
            Trump has also talked about increasing the use of Title 42, a public health policy that allows for the rapid expulsion of migrants, to manage the flow of people entering the country. He’s convinced he can leverage existing immigration laws to enforce stricter measures, including using more aggressive deportation tactics and cutting down on sanctuary cities. Additionally, he feels he can take a tougher stance on drug cartels, using executive power to designate them as terrorist organizations, which would give him broader authority to combat them.
            
            Trump is wise enough to know and mentioned that he may not have a majority of Republicans in Congress, and while he hopes that if he secures a majority, he’ll pass new immigration laws. That would be the best scenario.  However,  he’s also prepared with other solutions, the solutions I listed above. He’s ready to use every executive tool at his disposal to make the changes necessary, regardless of Congress’s makeup, ensuring he can still move forward on his border agenda even in a divided government.  His history shows he fights for change, and does forge ahead in unchartered waters.

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               Willowarborposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

               What public health emergency would be declared in order for him to reinstate 42?
               
               Mexico has stated they will not return to the wait in Mexico program.
               
               A president's power is very limited in terms of immigration.
               
               He begged Congress for immigration reform during his term and couldn't get it done.   His executive orders never fared well in the courts either
               
               Under no scenario will he get 60 votes to pass anything.

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                  Sharlee01posted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

                  I’ve taken the time to reflect on what I’ve gathered from Trump’s statements about his agenda regarding the broken immigration system. Title 42 is a public health policy that allows the U.S. government to expel migrants at the border without going through the typical immigration processing. This policy was implemented to address health concerns and prevent the spread of infectious diseases. We’ve seen an uptick in tuberculosis (TB), polio, and measles recently.
                  
                  For instance, in 2022, the United States reported 8,800 TB cases, many of which were among migrants. Data shows that non-U.S.-born individuals account for a significant portion of these cases, with around 70% of TB cases in 2021 being in foreign-born individuals—a trend that has continued into 2022 and beyond. In 2023, TB cases in the United States continued to rise, aligning with a global trend, and the CDC provisionally reported 9,615 cases that year. Alarmingly, around 75% of these cases were attributed to foreign-born individuals. As we move into early 2024, TB cases show a continued upward trend, with a 16% increase from 2022, marking the highest level in a decade.
                  
                  As of early 2024, tuberculosis (TB) cases continue to rise in the U.S., with a reported increase across 40 states in 2023. Specific states showing significant numbers of cases include California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois. This upward trend reflects a broader global increase in TB, influenced by factors such as heightened migration.
                  
                  Given these circumstances, I believe Trump could once again invoke Title 42 due to the spread of TB and other infectious diseases. I also think he will have little trouble negotiating with Mexico to reinstate the "Remain in Mexico" policy to discourage migrants from making the journey through their country. I’ve addressed concerns about Congress, as has Trump; he is realistic and certainly understands what he is dealing with when it comes to legislative support.
                  
                  In my view, Trump is a problem solver. I feel this way because I witnessed his term in office and believe he did a good job. I trust him to address the issues we face. In contrast, I think the current administration has done a horrific job, leading to severe problems that we have yet to fully understand in terms of how badly they will impact our nation. It appears not much I offer disturbs you, and that you simply revert to blame
                  Trump.  I am sorry, I can't even understand how anyone can ignore what has gone on under Biden.  Again, we will need to agree to disagree in regard to what Trump can and can't do regarding the serious immigration problems.  I clearly watched for over 3 years Biden/harris do nothing, but blame others, instead of trying to work to solve the problems.  .

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      Ken Burgessposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

      So much thanks for that link... I was in tears it was so funny...
      
      Its so important that everyone vote and every vote matters... even if they only got into the country last week!!!

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   Kathryn L Hillposted 6 weeks ago

   7 million plus undecided voters might vote, but we don't know what they have in their minds. (Where have they been?)
   What is on their minds? ( Apparently, nothing.)
   Do they feel pressured now? (By what? A sense of duty?)
   What would their opinions be based on, if and when they finally decide to vote? (Why would they bother at this point?)
   Will it come down to a flip of the coin? (No, unless they get to keep it.)
   
   I agree with Lewis Black. If you are undecided, sit this one out so you don't cancel out  researched, intelligent choices.

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3. 87

   tsmogposted 6 weeks ago

   Voters who haven't yet made up their minds could decide the presidential race by USA Today (Oct 17, 2024)
   https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol … 482752007/
   [Oops! Apologies! Forgot to post the URLwith the original post]
   
   What do the undecided voters say? This article offers reasons why they are undecided. But, . . .
   
   "Patriotic duty will drive them to vote
   
   Despite her differences with both candidates, Terek, who met her late-husband while they both served in the Air Force four decades ago, said she will cast a ballot for president. She's just not sure for whom.
   
   "Oh, yes, I absolutely plan to vote. In person, too," said Terek, a mother of two and grandmother of two. "I don’t know where I’m going to place my 'X' at the moment."
   
   As a veteran, Hoekstra also believes it's his patriotic duty to make a presidential pick on Election Day.
   
   "Despite my feelings, I’ll crawl there to vote if I have to," Hoekstra said. "I respect those who fought and died to preserve this democracy and the freedom to vote. I won’t dishonor this sacrifice.
   
   "Even if it’s at the last minute," Hoekstra said. "I will vote, for someone."

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4. 72

   Kathleen Cochranposted 6 weeks ago

   "If you are undecided, sit this one out so you don't cancel out  researched, intelligent choices."
   
   If only they would do that.
   
   I suspect most undecided voters are still trying to justify voting for a Trump (convicted felon/January 6th orchestrator).

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      Ken Burgessposted 6 weeks agoin reply to this

      Yeah...
      
      The same people who have begun WWIII are the same people who ramrodded a slightly biased NY conviction on him... no political agenda at all...
      
      The Jan 6th event... that was a nice media event... I thought for a moment the entire government was going to be overthrown!!!    Like what happened in Ukraine!!! ...it was almost the same!!!
      
      Not...

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5. 87

   tsmogposted 6 weeks ago

   The Enigma of the Undecided Voter by The Institute of Quantitative Social Science (Oct 7, 2024) [5 minute read]
   
   Every four years, as the air grows colder and the days shorter, America becomes captivated by a singular figure—an almost mythical creature in the political wilderness. This character, the undecided voter, is the star of countless news reports and campaign strategies. Imagine the suburban mom loading groceries into her car or the blue-collar worker sipping coffee at a diner, both seemingly unable to choose between candidates, their indecision portrayed as holding the fate of the country in a delicate balance.
   
   https://www.iq.harvard.edu/news/enigma-undecided-voter
   
   Subheadings . . .
   
   ** The Real Swing
   
   ** The Great Unraveling of Voter Behavior
   
   ** The Emotional Tug-of-War
   
   **Apathy and the Swinging Voter
   
   ** The Media’s Role in the Swing
   
   ** A New Understanding of Voter Behavior
   
   ** The Swing of Things
   
   So, what does this mean as we head toward another election cycle? It means the myth of the undecided voter only tells part of the story. If you really want to understand what’s happening, you have to look at the bigger picture. The swings in the middle are just a reflection of the swings happening across the electorate. We’re all part of this collective movement, this shifting landscape. And that’s the real story.

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6. 87

   tsmogposted 5 weeks ago

   Recent polling by 538 shares the undecided remains at 5.5%. Both Trump and Harris are focusing on the undecided today in battleground/swing states.
   
   
   
   538/ABC News / Last updated Oct 23, 2024 7:45 ET
   
   Google landing page for browser search 'undecided voter Oct 23'
   https://www.google.com/search?client=fi … ter+oct+23

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