I think that there is one way to evaluate intelligently whether the Afghan war can be won. When a psychiatrist takes on a new patient, it doesn't take him/her long to assess whether the patient will benefit from therapy. We have watched the middle east long enough. Between culture and religion, concepts of democracy from the west (a Greek tradition) aren't going to spin. It is time to turn our treasure toward our social needs, continue defensive military development, and fund enough offensive military development that we can strike back when terrorist try to play their trade. We simply do not have enough wealth to prop up the rest of the world - ask the Europeans!
We can give the Middle East all the moral support they need; it's time for an all out revolution. It appears to have started, but it needs to meet fruition with every citizen willing to lay down his life for a new order for his/her children!