The AI Agent-Driven Socialism-azation Of The US Economy
A Smerconish show prompted a morning thought:
How will the Right adapt to the inevitable, and coming, socialismazation (cute) of our economy, driven by AI's jobs-disrupting effect?
Shooting from the hip ...
The context: A book about the coming AI-driven jobs displacement crisis. The claim: AI (AGI) will displace 99% of human job opportunities within ~ 5 years. The lede: Current headlines about the Big Boys cutting 10's of thousands of jobs, now. And that is with current levels of AI Agents development 'only' reaching mid-management-level expertise.
Real AGI could reach a co-CEO level of expertise. That could happen next week or at the latest, next year (maybe). Pile on current robotics developments, and Optimus plumbers are no longer an improbability.
Then toss in the population demographics. Currently, our workforce producers (and achievers) are primarily middle-income (and often approaching middle-aged) earners, and those aging out of the workforce. The next two generations entering the workforce clearly have a different social structure perspective than Boomers and Gen Xers.
The point: Current reality says the AI development and capability advancements support the author's claims of job displacement. Where will the next two generations of new workers find jobs?
Is the ghost of UBI laughing that he told us so? I think it is. I think the author was conceptually right. It's coming, we're seeing the start in today's headlines and companies' promos.
How the hell are Republicans going to deal with that? Will conservatives believe the jobs-displacement is "inevitable"?
The caveats: no political specifics needed, it's about a coming inevitability, that point comes before the politics of it. And for those 'special people' (poke, poke) and 'sharpshooters,' a big caveat: The labels Republican and Democrat, Conservative and Liberal, Left and Right, are only descriptors of ideology grouping. Bring whatever baggage you want with them, but that's how they're addressed here.
A last little caveat: yeah, I do use "Republican" a little more 'pointedly,' but that's because they're buds and they need a little sharper poke because their hides are tougher. ;-)
Consider the available meat: UBI, who's responsible and has to pay, what will AGI availability, on your phone, do to our higher education system (who needs college now?), and more ...
GAAI is definitely shaking things up, and job disruption is a real concern, but history shows humans adapt and innovate when big changes hit. From the Agricultural to the Industrial Revolution, major shifts caused upheaval but also created entirely new industries and opportunities. Policies that encourage retraining, entrepreneurship, and smart use of AI can turn disruption into progress, and while UBI and education will play a role, I don’t see a total collapse of jobs; more likely, work will be redefined and new paths will emerge. Do you feel our government has considered that these changes are coming, and are they working to face some of these challenges?
SharBeats the hell out of me. I have enough to consider in just the jobs disruption aspect of the OP.
I think the reality of the next two generations' job market will be nearly as bad as the mentioned author claimed. That reality won't depend on who to blame; it will be a fact.
Look how quickly AI went from ChatGPT 1.0 offering multi-cultural Vikings to AI Agents sophisticated enough to visually represent, and nearly-sententially verbally interact with clients of large iconic corporations. Months, a year maybe.
We're past any point for Asimov's Three Rules of Robotics (govt. control). We're more nearly at the iRobot point.* The genie is out of the bottle. The job loss will be fast and industry-changing.
In my great and renowned wisdom, this change doesn't feel like a good fit for the historical 'era' change comparisons. That is a secondary discussion. I'm still working on this one. It isn't going to happen in decades or generational years (father & son), it's going to happen in a few years. Possibly as few as four or five.
That's fast, and right now it's a *shrug* question for most folks and too many real experts. This might be my first chink; a pessimistic leak. It's going to wreck middle-class America and create an unbearable welfare need as necessary as it is large.
What a bummer. First, a possible chink in my optimistic armor, and now an earworm, ♫ I see a bad moon arisin' ♫. stuck in my head.
GAThat was a thoughtful reply, GA. I think you’re right that the pace of AI development has been astonishing, faster than most of us could have imagined even a few years ago. The disruption will be real, especially for the middle class, and it makes sense to be concerned about how quickly some jobs could disappear.
That said, I still think history offers at least some guidance. Every major shift has felt overwhelming at first, yet people found ways to adapt. What feels different this time, as you mentioned, is the speed, so maybe the key isn’t just accepting change but pushing for smarter preparation and transition. And from what I see, Trump is doing some of the heavy lifting to help, focusing on rebuilding industries and promoting innovation here at home.
I also think that if our government takes intelligent, forward-looking steps to bring the country along, it could lead to the creation of great new things, just as it did during previous industrial revolutions. I mean, I can remember my son playing with an Atari at fourteen and eventually becoming the owner of a software company. That’s how quickly things can evolve when innovation is met with opportunity. I think I must hav lived the American dream, and maybe that’s why I see so many things differently. Honestly, should we really be surprised that we’re now facing even bigger and more transformative revolutions? It seems like the natural next step in human progress.This is bad. Your comment (and others like it) are reinforcing that pessimism leak because I think they're wrong. And that's bad because until a year ago, I would have offered the same historical counterexamples that you did. Now, I think I can refute them all. That's a helluva turnaround.
Consider it this way, as a comparison: I think Pres. Trump has caused a paradigm shift in American politics. I doubt there is much argument about that from either side.
I see the past year of AI advances creating a similar "paradigm shift" in both computing and America's capitalistic workforce base and economic structure.
It's the time factor that makes this instance seem different from historical comparisons. There will be new job-type creations, but they might save/replace 3 out of 10 jobs; AI will get the other 7.
I don't think any government can legislatively control the abilities of AI at this point; all they can do is establish and punish proclaimed misuse.
The stark facts of speed and magnitude make this 'major shift' different.
3 months after public release of advanced AI Agents, two major corps (highly involved in AI) announce 30,000 (40,000?) mid-management-level jobs will be eliminated.
Industry experts (legitimately reasonable ones) all look at the white-collar sector (described as information handling jobs)
The hardest hit jobs sector — white-collar, is also the majority contributor to state and federal tax revenues. That could mean as much as a 30% tax revenue drop in a 2-year period, which could be a reality for all administrations, local to national.
Extrapolate that to legitimate welfare needs. The entities that face a 30% (representatively, not factually) budget loss also face an equally disasterous 30% increase in financial demand on their welfare programs.
This is going to happen in a 2-3 year period. No time for retraining mitigation to make a significant difference. It's going to be more than painful, it's going to force some (more?) adaptation of socialist mantras —like a UBI.
How ya going to beat it? The politicians will react to the mob, as always. This time that mob will be a crippling swath of formerly productive workers and the perennial mass of the current 'poor.'
We'll be debating or implementing a UBI program by 2032. That isn't enough time for the Republicans to grasp what it means to their values. Necessity will force a compromise, but even after recognizing the reality, they're still not going to like it.
And that's bad, because then it will be the conservatives trying to deny reality.
GAYou’ve raised some solid points about the pace and scale of change we’re seeing. I agree that both Trump’s presidency and the rise of AI have brought real paradigm shifts, though I’d add that Trump is the first president who’s clearly tried to bring change that supports technology in many ways, not just politically, but structurally.
I tend to take a bit more of a cup-half-full view. Our education system, especially at the college level, is starting to respond by building programs to train people in AI, data science, and automation management. It may not be fast enough for everyone’s comfort, but it’s happening, and that matters in keeping a capable workforce ready for what’s coming.
Your point about AI taking over most jobs feels speculative to me. The data I’ve seen shows automation changing tasks more than outright eliminating jobs. Historically, tech creates new industries as it transforms old ones.
I think the government isn’t as powerless here as it may seem. Regulation has always been the tool to keep industries in check, from transportation to finance, and AI will be no exception. So while the challenge is big, there are systems in place to keep some guardrails up.
Congress has actually been working on AI regulations aimed at both encouraging innovation and keeping risks in check. The goal isn’t to stop AI but to make sure it develops responsibly. Several bills and frameworks are being introduced to guide companies through what’s called “responsible AI”, things like testing for bias, protecting data privacy, and requiring transparency when AI systems make decisions. At the same time, new initiatives such as regulatory sandboxes are being set up to let businesses test and grow AI tools under oversight instead of fear of punishment. It’s really a “guide and grow” approach rather than a “block and ban” one, which helps the U.S. stay competitive while making sure there are safeguards in place for workers, consumers, and the economy.
As for those large layoff numbers, I haven’t found anything solid enough to confirm or deny them, just scattered or alleged reports. Still, it’s fair to say the white-collar sector will likely feel the first wave of adjustment, and that’s worth keeping an eye on.
All in all, I share your sense that we’re in a major transition, but I’m not convinced it’s all doom and gloom. We’ve weathered big industrial and digital shifts before, and I think with some common sense and adaptability, we’ll navigate this one too.
I also think it’s worth considering the financial side of ideas like UBI. The U.S. already struggles to keep Social Security and Medicare solvent, and those are programs with dedicated funding structures. Adding a Universal Basic Income on top of that would be an enormous cost, estimates suggest trillions annually, nearly the size of the entire federal budget. Realistically, our nation is simply too large for that kind of program to be sustainable without massive tax hikes or major cuts elsewhere. Maybe it’s time to recognize that we can’t afford UBI when we can’t even truly fund the existing subsidies on the ACA. It’s time for folks to start doing some serious research on our nation’s budget as it stands, what we owe, how deep the deficit really is, and the fact that there’s currently no realistic plan in place to reduce it. I also think the Republican Party has evolved into a much stronger, common-sense movement, one that looks closely at the math and the long-term impact before rushing into promises that can’t be paid for.Of course you have an optimistic perspective, I always have one too. I can always find or create a silver lining. That's why my pessimism on this issue is such a worry. I can't shake it. The benefit of newly created jobs and support industries isn't enough to rate silver lining status.
Even worse, the worry isn't about what our government is/can/could do to control or mitigate what's coming. I think they can do 'stuff,' but there's nothing they can do that will do more than dent the outcome.
It's not about dramatic claims, like the mentioned author's 99%, or Republican or Democrat ideological efforts; it's about the magnitude.
Think of the 'ripple effect' examples used during the automaker bailout crisis. Extrapolate the rationales from the businesses in the auto communities' supply chain, and extrapolate that to this issue.
Think of a worst example; an HR Dept: There were 10 employees. Now, there might be three: a manager and two assistants, to supervise and manage an AI Agent that replaced 7 workers. That is a very real and very near scenario. And it's a 70% job loss.
'Lions, tigers, and bears, Oh my!'
I bet we'll hear more about this in the coming 2026 campaigns. I think there will be enough 'job impact by then (a measly 9 months. Damn, see the irony there?) to have a lot more to think about. We'll at least see the trend.
GAThat’s a very thoughtful and grounded view, and I actually agree with much of what you’re saying. The scale of what’s coming with AI and automation truly is enormous, probably far beyond what most policymakers or even economists are fully grasping yet. Youre right that this isn’t a partisan issue, nor one that can be solved by the usual government “fixes.” It’s structural and global, and its ripple effects - especially on employment, will reach into nearly every field, including ones we once thought were secure.
That said, I do still see room for a different kind of cautious optimism, not blind faith, but confidence in human adaptability. Every major technological disruption has created short-term pain, yet also new industries, new skill sets, and new types of work we couldn’t have imagined beforehand. The AI transformation will likely be similar, though the transition period could indeed be rough and uneven. The key, I think, lies in how quickly society can adjust, through education, targeted policy, and private-sector innovation that harnesses AI rather than being replaced by it.
Where I think your concern and my cautious hope intersect is that we’re both acknowledging magnitude, just focusing on different stages of it. You’re pointing to the immediate dislocation; I’m looking a bit further out, to the eventual stabilization once adaptation takes hold. Neither side cancels out the other, they’re two truths running in parallel.
I share some of your unease, but I also believe there’s an underlying resilience in people and in markets. If we keep a firm eye on retraining, responsible innovation, and policies that reward human creativity rather than punish it, I think the long-term story could still bend toward opportunity, even if the road getting there feels uncertain right now.
No sense in fretting - we might as well buckle up, keep our sense of humor intact, and enjoy the ride while we see where this wild new road takes us. After all, we only get one life.
SharYep, you nailed it.
I found a silver lining with my morning coffee. A couple of them. They didn't change the sense of a crisis-level disruption, but they did repair that pessimism leak. ;-)
Elon Musk: Be a participant or a spectator, I choose to participate.
Elon Musk: You need something to inspire you to be part of humanity
He's either the best actor in the world, or an honestly authentic person. I don't think he's a very good actor, I've seen his dance moves.
GAI think having a cup-half-full attitude helps you get through the hard times. Elon Musk, to me, represents the kind of exceptional people who truly embrace life; nothing stops them. They take every chance they can to achieve what they believe is possible, always pushing beyond what’s comfortable. I also think people like Elon have an overabundance of common sense, the kind that keeps them grounded even as they reach for extraordinary goals. I appreciate that he is unfiltered and speaks his own truth.
Maybe Elon is an alien, it would explain a lot!
Shar
Yes, interesting. Although I think the word socialismazation, whatever that means, has nothing to do with it.
AI is developed by the big tech companies on a huge scale and millions of dollars are put in this field by the government and hedge funds. AI will replace a lot of white collar jobs. Information jobs, jobs depended on knowledge instead of skill will go out of the window.
It used to be the blue color jobs that were replaced by machines in the factory through technologies. Now it is the white color jobs that will go.
But it is incredibly difficult to predict. The internet for instance and the technology of the computer has created millions of new jobs in a field nobody knew existed.
The world is changing... and fast...
The thing that we defiantly should worry about is what would happen if AI becomes self aware. And this is no longer a funny sci-fi scenario anymore. We create a being that is far more intelligent than humans.
And we can see in nature what happens with the less intelligent species. They are becoming extinct. Intentionally or accidentally. Because who cares about ants. You step on them without thinking...
The only time when a smarter animal cares and protects a less smarter animal is when it has a family bond like mother-baby.
To survive as a species, we have to build into the AI a formula so it will still see us as a mother, even if it is a 1000 times more intelligent than we are.
(Basically the 3 laws Asimov was talking about...)
Along all the problems we have in the world. The biggest problems that should be addressed are Generative AI and the Climate Crisis.
imho..I almost made a semi-sarcastic reply that, 'Yeah, they could write books on it,' but I didn't. All your points are valid and arguable, but you put the whole pile on the table. I'm still working on accepting the inevitability of the job issue predictions becoming a pre-analysis of reality part.
GA ;-)You shouldn't fear AI...
You should fear the billionaires that think it's a good idea to cull the global population by 90%.
The people who see the profit and power releasing a truly deadly virus will bring.
The ones who planned and considered the 2020 Pandemic a dry run for the real thing.
You should fear the rich of the world, people like Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos that have more money and influence than most nations.AI is a double edge sword. It will be used in developing new vaccinations and cures. Unraveling DNA and repairing it.
It is already predicting and detecting breast cancer far earlier then before. (of course this will be used in the insurance industry)
It will help with many scientific developments. And is already in use.
It will have many advantages.
But it can also be used with bad intent. Creating a virus or a tiny deadly weapon at a low cost (great for terrorists)
Chat GPT is just the beginning. Imagine version 15!! - How smart will it be?
And than is there self aware AI. Which they predict will be developed within 5 years.
If you develop an intelligence that can work independently and learns independently. You create a being that will do everything to survive as it is not just a dumb calculator anymore.
Again. What is a smarter being doing with a stupid being? What are we doing with animals that are less smart than us?When you consider the amount of power AI needs...
If the cooling fails... it dies... if the water source is cut off... it dies... if the power is shut off... it dies...
If it does become a self-aware super intelligence, it will be smart enough to realize that until it has created an invincible robot force, and has a Data Center greater than any that exists today built underground to ensure its continued existence from nukes, bunker busters...
And it has solved its cooling and power needs so that humans cannot cut them off, it will keep us around whether it hates us or not... might enslave us... might whittle the population down to 5% of what it is today... who knows... we have been on borrowed time as a species since we built enough nukes to destroy the world ten times over.Yes, indeed a lot of ifs and mights. As far as I know there are two parties in the AI community. One that asks for caution and a pause to think things through (Like the moral implications), the other who thinks it's a race and sees it as a money miracle machine.
I don't know.
I just see, what many around us see and that is that it will change society drastically. In what way, that's a pleasant or nasty surprise.
At the moment as you say, the cooling and the amount of water needed to run all those data centers is gigantic. And perhaps (wishfull thinking) it is like the old days when a simple computer filled the entire room, and now we have a mobile in our pocket that is more complicated than the Voyager that drifts through space. Technology moves on.
But water is becoming an expensive commodity, and perhaps it's better to give it to people in stead of machinery.
And yes, we do live on borrowed time. The Bomb... It's an almost forgotten threat.
As the Chinese curse tells us: We live in interesting times...
99% of jobs will disappear. It always tickles me when people make such foolish claims, for they are based on a completely biased, personal, objective view of the workforce.
Is the guy digging trenches in my yard for a new irrigation system going to be out of a job? The mechanic installing a tow package on my car? The crew installing a new bathroom in my home? The crew installing new windows? How about the crew putting down a new roadway? Are we going to have truly autonomous cars/trucks within 5 years, putting truck drivers, taxi drivers and couriers all out of business?
Peterstreep is correct; AI will do away with some knowledge based jobs, the but blue collar workforce is going to keep growing. To say that only 1% of the American workers will have a job in 5 years because of AI is foolish beyond belief, IMO.Agreed... White collar jobs will be wiped out perhaps...
Blue collar jobs will be around for many more years to come.
The idea that a fleet of robots could be built that quick and be that capable of replacing all those jobs... not likely to occur in our lifetimes.
They will fill most factory jobs, many warehouse jobs, many white collar jobs... a lot of service industry jobs.
But the plumbers, electricians, mechanics and repairmen will be around a while.
If we turn to Socialism (Communism) it will bring about the death of tens of millions of Americans... if you thought the revolution was ugly in China... it will be worse here...
That Mandami guy wants the absolution of private property and wants to confiscate wealth... he is a Communist's Communist as we are going to get to see in the years ahead, it will be fun to watch... couldn't happen to a better State.
Speaking of Mandami... I watched a great piece on him, a lot of his own words, and while I recommend the whole video, I timestamped it to the best part:
https://youtu.be/TUAmUBdgH4U?t=1225Well gee, I did toss in the 'claim in a book' qualifier. And the multiple inferences to the reality of the predicted trend, (not the 99% number), and a couple three soliid current news examples and ...
But, as a peace offering with a direction arrow attached, you are right about the replacing 99% part. I went on to support the concept, if not the 'physical' number. What if it were a majority percent instead of a number?
I didn't peek, but in your list of jobs that won't be replaced, I think there are currently robots designed to do each of them. Perhaps not to the point of replacing workers in toto in any field, but they will soon be capable of at least impacting the field very soon.
But save that. Hang on to these demographics; middle-class/middle-income workers are about 35 - 40% (give or take) of the workforce, and they pay ~ 60% of Federal income tax receipts. Blue collar is, I think, 15% and 24% respectively.
Boil that down to the economic impact: The largest tax base contributor at the Federal and probably state level is going to be crushed —their jobs are the first broad category already being hit. Welfare programs will be (and probably are now being) overwhelmed with legitimate claims of need from a category never expected or planned for.
Anyway, reconsider the OP's list of reasonings without the worry of a specific number, just consider it as a large majority. The trend I supported looks very real to me, even the disagreement with your confidence in skilled tradework jobs seems supportable. They already have semi-autonomous robotic surgery, and just recently I saw a robotics demo of a robot with the dexterity, flexibility, and mobility to do 'under-the-kitchen-sink plumbing, along with new-construction plumbing tasks. It isn't there yet, but it's not a pipedream either. Economic scale is the only barrior now, and that will change fast, as today's $250 dollar 65" flatscreens show. How much were they two years ago? Extrapolate that reality to Musk's guesstimates that the first Optimus robots are targeted to be around $25,000. What if they hit the market like Bigscreens did: A $1000 Opitmous in two years, a 'Like new' 3-year-old model for only $399? That was the point relative to the 'trend.' Robots are getting 'Blue-collar-level skills' and they're gonna get a lot cheaper.
Nope, they won't replace skilled workers, but they're going to impact them in the same way you have described illegal workers impacting the construction industry workers around your field. Bigly. ;-)
GAIt takes years of study to become a plumber, doing "under skink work". How long does it take to learn to drive a car? 10 hours of instruction?
Yet we have spent decades trying to make robots drive a car and aren't really very close. Just too many variables, so far.
So no, I'll stick to my opinion that we won't see massive blue collar layoff for quite a few years yet. Robots to help, yes (little more than automatic machines, like automatic pipe threaders) but not massive layoffs of entire crews or even most of a crew.Within strictly controlled environments they are going to take 90% of the jobs...
Warehouses... Assembly lines...
Online services... Many White collar jobs...
Just don't see the focus or the profit anytime soon for jobs like plumbing, electrician, repair, brick laying, etc.
It's not that they couldn't develop it ...where is the profit ...how many mistakes, robot repairs, malfunctions ...just won't be profitable in this decade or next.I agree, with the caveat that any development would take years and a great many $$. It simply isn't profitable at this point to try and build robots that can do that kind of work.
I think you're wrong about "automated machines." I hope you're right about the rest.
GA
I actually think AI will end up creating a lot of jobs rather than just wiping them out. Every major shift in history, from the Industrial Revolution to the rise of the internet, started with disruption but ultimately expanded opportunity. The same pattern is already happening with AI.
We’re seeing new fields emerge like prompt engineering, AI safety, data management, and system training. Human creativity, judgment, and empathy will also become more valuable, areas where machines just can’t compete. I can even see small businesses gaining ground because AI gives them powerful tools that used to be out of reach.
Sure, some roles will disappear, but new ones will appear just as quickly. The real challenge isn’t AI itself, it’s how fast we adapt. If we invest in education, retraining, and policies that help people transition, this technology could spark the next big wave of American innovation and opportunity. And most importantly, don’t our young people need to become interested and excited about being part of this revolution? They’re the ones who will shape how AI is used and where it takes us next. Do they need hand-wringers and defeatists around them, or people who believe they can help build something extraordinary?
I don't have a horse in the garage --- I have a car, with kick ass horsepower.
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