Is Russia Going to Invade Ukraine? Should America care if they do?
Russian forces near collapse in Kupyansk as Moscow allies concede city lost: report
Viktor Trehubov says only several dozen Russian forces remain cut off in Kupyansk with failing air supply lines
Russian forces appear close to being pushed out of the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kupyansk, with only a small number of isolated troops remaining and even pro-Kremlin voices acknowledging the setback, according to a report.
The Kyiv Post reported Thursday that Ukrainian military officials say Russian units left inside the city are cut off from reliable supply lines and are increasingly surrendering as their position deteriorates.
Viktor Trehubov, head of communications for Ukraine’s Joint Forces grouping, said Russian forces inside Kupyansk now number only several dozen and include foreign mercenaries fighting alongside Moscow’s troops.
"They are surrendering," Trehubov said during a televised briefing carried by Ukrainian state media. "There have even been cases of foreigners — foreign mercenaries for the Russians — giving themselves up."
https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-f … ost-reportThat is good news indeed, but since it was Fox New, I had to verify it. Maybe Zelenskii is offering concessions too soon.
Shar,
The frustrating thing is that Ukraine attacks military targets.
russia attacks civilian cities.
russia is an evil empire.Mike, I agree. The distinction matters, and it often gets lost in the noise. Ukraine is targeting military infrastructure and assets tied directly to Russia’s ability to wage war. Russia, on the other hand, has repeatedly and deliberately struck civilian cities, homes, hospitals, and energy infrastructure with no military necessity. That’s not warfare, it’s terror.
This isn’t a case of “both sides are the same.” One side is defending its sovereignty and trying to minimize civilian harm; the other is using civilian suffering as a strategy. History has a name for regimes that operate this way, and “evil empire” fits because this behavior isn’t accidental; it’s systematic.Not as far as Trump is concerned. Reagan never trusted Russia, Trump repeatedly proves he trusts them more than he trusts America.
The only thing Trump has proven, is that he is far savvier than those who dislike him will ever admit.
To accomplish all that he has, requires plans within plans, and comprehension well beyond what he shows in public.What has he accomplished besides create many problems. The ONLY thing that you an point to is a shaky cease fire in Gaza that Netanyahu violates daily.
The Ukrainian Army is advancing.
Kyiv Troops Advance, Take Russian Prisoners in Kupyansk Battle Mop-Up
Putin proudly announced last month that Kupyansk was “totally under Russian control.” Now Ukrainian troops are taking ground, mopping up and taking prisoners.
Ukrainian infantry, commando, national guard and scout teams are advancing and have captured urban districts, Russian prisoners-of-war, and a key bridgehead to the east of the northeastern city of Kupyansk, a place Russian leader Vladimir Putin declared conquered decisively by Kremlin forces in November.
Ukrainian ground troops operating in the Kharkiv region city with a pre-war population of 27,000 have gained ground and cleared new districts of Kupyansk steadily over the past 72 hours against at times limited Russian resistance, Ukrainian official sources and military media said.
In a high-profile media event aired across Russia’s 11 time zones on the national broadcaster RT-1 on Nov. 20, a visibly pleased Putin wore a military uniform to receive a report that Ukrainian forces had, purportedly, been thrown out of the city by Russian forces. Independent media quickly confirmed that the official Kremlin claims were fake news.
Since then, effective Ukrainian assaults backed by concentrations of strike drone units have isolated Russian troops in the center of the city, wearing them down with casualties and food and ammunition shortages.
On Friday, Ukraine’s General Staff said combat within Kupyansk city limits had come to a near-halt and that the only serious fighting in the sector was some 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) east in and around a village called Petropavlivka. The regional Ukrainian headquarters Joint Task Forces Command (JTFC) on Friday said its troops had advanced “to improve local positions,” and on Saturday reported Russian troops had been ejected from that village.
Russian milbloggers over the weekend reported a worsening situation in Petropavlivka village and the adjacent Kucherivka village. According to those sources, Ukrainian assaults had effectively eliminated the remains of two Russian infantry regiments that had been attempting to hold out there. The independent battle-tracking group DeepState on Monday showed those villages were under confirmed Ukrainian control.
The pro-Moscow milblogger Aleksandr Sladkov in a Monday report of fighting around Kupyansk, reported no combat within the city: “Kupyansk sector of the front. Fierce fighting continues near Kupyansk. The weather is challenging and unstable, and the opposing sides are taking advantage of this: the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to deploy additional forces to populated areas.”
The US-headquartered Institute for the Studay of War (ISW) on Monday in a daily situation report generally confirmed reports of Ukrainian advances near Petropavlivka and parallel ground gains to the south, south-east and north of Kupyansk.
If held by Kyiv forces, the Petropavlivka-Kucherivka built up area would become an operationally important Ukrainian bridgehead across the Oskil River, and a major reverse for Russian forces, who have fought bloody battles for almost four years in an as-yet unsuccessful effort to gain full control of the Oskil River’s left bank in the Kharkiv region.
Viktor Tregubov, the JTFC official spokesperson, in Sunday comments on a national television news program said that Ukraine’s military believes that within Kupyansk city itself, around one hundred Russian soldiers are still at large and that cold and food and ammunition shortages had reduced most of them to ineffectiveness. Russian milbloggers have reported skies saturated with Ukrainian attack drones since December.
A statement by the 77th Brigade’s parent unit, 7th Air Assault Corps, claimed at least 40 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously injured after reconnaissance drones discovered them exiting an unused natural gas pipeline near the village of Bohuslavka and operators called in shell strikes. An armored vehicle attack in the same sector was repelled with losses, that report said.
The video was geolocated to the battle site claimed by the Ukrainian military, but Kyiv Post wasn’t able to independently confirm the dates of the engagements.
Ukraine’s 127th Heavy Mechanized Brigade “Kharkiv” on Sunday published a report by a scout element describing a Cuban mercenary sent to fight as part of Russian forces deployed to the Kupyansk sector, and subsequently deciding that capture and surrender to Ukrainian forces was preferable.
The speaker, identifying himself in English as Jondi Delapaz, in a seven-minute video published by the 2nd Corps reconnaissance element Nord Division, said he had travelled to Moscow for work in early 2025, was unable to find permanent employment, and was arrested by police as an illegal migrant. He claimed he wanted to return to Cuba, but Russian law enforcers tricked him into signing a military contract and sent him to Kupyansk as a replacement in November. Delapaz complained about minimal food and said he surrendered after his team came under fire and he and a wounded Russian soldier decided to stop fighting.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67537I saw some earlier reports from the ISW alluding the same thing.
This is fantastic news! It’s incredibly encouraging to see the Ukrainian Armed Forces steadily advancing in Kupyansk, reclaiming key districts, and taking Russian prisoners. The reports of operational gains, including the Petropavlivka-Kucherivka bridgehead across the Oskil River, are especially significant; it’s a major strategic reversal for Russian forces who have struggled for years to control the region. The disciplined use of drones, coordinated infantry, and combined arms operations clearly shows that Ukraine is not only holding its ground but pushing forward effectively. Seeing the Russian troops isolated and reduced in effectiveness underscores the precision and determination of Kyiv’s forces. This is a strong demonstration of Ukraine’s resilience and tactical skill, and it’s truly satisfying to see their hard work paying off on the battlefield.
I pray nightly for this war to end, and a just ending, that the victims win over the aggressors."I pray nightly for this war to end, and a just ending, that the victims win over the aggressors."
The voices of millions of Ukrainians join you in this.
Is Russia down for the count?
Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t want you — or for that matter, President Trump — to know that Russia is in trouble — deep trouble.
His regime is not in danger of collapsing, but his country — its economy, military and global influence — is stuck in the mud.
Consider the curious case of the Bella One. Yesterday, after an 18-day pursuit evocative of a sea version of “Smokey and the Bandit,” the U.S. Coast Guard and Navy seized the rusting oil tanker in the North Atlantic that had fled the U.S. naval blockade of Venezuela.
By then, it had been renamed the Marinera and re-registered as a Russian tanker based in the Black Sea port city of Sochi. It was even sporting a hastily painted tri-color Russian flag on its hull.
Significantly, Moscow appeared to have dispatched a Russian nuclear-powered submarine to intercept the Marinera under orders to escort it back safely to Murmansk — a Russian sea port in the Arctic.
Nukes or no, the plan failed. Instead, the pride of Putin’s Baltic Fleet could only watch as a U.S. Coast Guard Cutter and Navy assets tracked, chased and seized the tanker.
This invites the question of what, if anything, the Marinera was transporting. The empty tanker began its voyage in Iran in August. If it was carrying something, then Putin was going to great lengths to try and prevent Team Trump from finding out its cargo. Navies rarely dispatch nuclear-powered submarines to safeguard empty oil tankers.
If it was carrying illicit or nefarious cargo, it certainly wasn’t cases of Coors. We do, however, have clues.
Previously, the Bella 1 and its then-owners — Louis Marine Shipholding Enterprises, S.A. — had been sanctioned by the Department of Treasury in 2024, “for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and specifically its Quds Force. Jason Brodsky, a Middle East expert and policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran, has pointed out that the Quds Force’s Unit 840 “has been historically active in Venezuela.”
The unit is responsible for the planning, coordination and execution of Iranian sponsored terrorist attacks overseas. In this vein, the Bella 1 could have been transporting arms and munitions for future Unit 840 operations in Latin America.
Or it could have been shipping weapons and military assets — for example, Iranian-made drones, Russian built surface-to-air missile batteries, etc. — for use by the Maduro regime itself. Or perhaps, all of the above. We will know soon enough.
The real question is why all of the Russian smoke and mirror gamesmanship over this one ship? Why dispatch a nuclear-powered sub to safeguard a can of rust? It doesn’t add up unless Putin is hiding something. Significantly, it may have had little or nothing to do with what was on board the Marinera and everything to do with Putin desperately trying to project a mirage of Russian military might.
Negotiations between Team Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have produced letters of intent in Paris by France and Germany on Tuesday to provide Ukraine with post-war security guarantees.
Regardless of what, if anything was on board the Bella 1, it tells us that Putin is panicking. Nor is this the first time of late. Putin also panicked ahead of Zelensky’s Dec. 28 meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. At that time, Putin’s smoke-and-mirrors gambit was to claim that the Ukrainians had targeted his personal residence in Valdai. Ultimately, after first biting, Trump dismissed Putin’s claims, saying on Air Force One, “I don’t believe that strike happened.”
By pursuing these charades, Putin is foolishly is sending Team Trump a message that Russia is out of conventional cards. As the Institute for the Study of War continues to observe, Putin’s meatgrinder advances in Ukraine continue at only a snail’s pace. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been able to advance in the vicinity of Pokrovsk — a key town in the Donbas that Putin had previously bragged was completely under Russian control.
At home, Putin’s economy is veering into stagnation. Yes, Russian unemployment is historically low — 2.1 percent as of November 2025 — but that is what happens when you build up an entire army and kill or maim 1.2 million of your prime-age workforce in a self-defeating and failing special military operation.
Combined with minimum projected GDP growth — only 1 percent after a 0.6 percent GDP growth rate in 2025 — Russia’s economy is in trouble. It is stuck, and it’s a humiliating comedown after 5.9 percent growth in 2021.
Simply put, Putin no longer has the manpower to grow his economy. In turn, that means he cannot further grow his military, either. Defense spending is projected to be relatively flat over the next three years, peaking at 13.6 percent of GDP in 2026.
Putin has run out of cards other to play, other than playing for time. Trump — and by extension Ukraine — now hold all of the cards. It’s time to play them and put Putin down for the count.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics … &ei=11While I do not doubt any of what you just presented, I don't think Trump is of a mind to pin his mentor and hero to the mat. His history since he became president in 2017, is to take knee to Putin. Why change now?
It soon may not matter what President Donald Trump does. russia can't continue much longer. This war has had a devastating impact on russia in terms of military prestige as well as economic power and population. They will not recover from this for generations. Ukraine can continue because their European and Asian allies are providing what is necessary to continue.
putin may soon have no choice but to give in to a peace deal.
Ukraine Shatters a Major Russian Offensive in Pokrovsk — Analysts Are Stunned
Ukraine delivered a crushing blow to Russian forces in the Pokrovsk direction on January 6th, 2026, obliterating 84 enemy soldiers and shattering a massive Russian offensive. This unprecedented defeat.
The day erupted into fierce combat, with Ukrainian forces engaging in over 200 clashes by evening. Russian troops launched 41 separate assaults on the Pokrovsk sector alone, aiming to breach Ukraine’s defenses with relentless force. Instead, they suffered staggering losses, unable to achieve a single breakthrough.
Ukraine’s defenders transformed Pokrovsk into a battlefield graveyard, inflicting irreversible damage on Russian manpower and military assets. Among the 84 Russian casualties, 53 were killed outright, a testament to the lethal precision and determination of the Ukrainian forces under immense pressure.
Russian command posts were systematically destroyed in theWell, I hesitated to post this for a while... but... it was so well put together and so informative regarding the current state of the war, I figure it is best to put it out there for people interested to make up their own minds:
Devastating Defeat for Ukraine in Siversk (But Their Defense Was Legendary)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfZpPMophDQThis is an example of how low Trump has driven America's reputation of standing up for democracy!
Having an ally begging him not to join Russia against them.
"Zelensky makes plea to Trump: ‘Stay on our side’"
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ … 6rrhglas2tA war of choice to... help a friend?
Trump eases Russian oil sanctions as Iran war sends prices spiking
The move was met Friday with dismay in Europe, where officials and experts feared it would aid the Russian war machine in Ukraine. The Kremlin pressed Washington to go further.
The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil, a boost to the Kremlin as Washington tries to contain energy prices sent soaring by the American-Israeli assault on Iran.
President Vladimir Putin’s team welcomed the move to ease penalties that were imposed over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and pushed Friday for the U.S. to go further. The decision caused dismay in Europe, where officials feared it would give a timely boost to the Moscow war machine on their doorstep as attention shifts to the Middle East.
The announcement failed to immediately calm oil prices, which have spiraled since Tehran effectively closed the vital Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint and began attacking energy facilities across neighboring Gulf countries.
The international benchmark of Brent crude rose again overnight, sitting just above $100 a barrel as of 6 a.m. ET. Markets worldwide slipped, with U.S. stock futures down following slumps across Asia and Europe.
Announcing the move Thursday evening, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that until April 11 countries would be able to buy Russian oil that was already at sea.
Today, there are around 124 million barrels of Russian oil being carried on ships around the world. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is preventing around 10 million barrels from entering the international market every day.Ukraine keeps slamming hammers on the Russian Bear's toes to great effect.
"Ukrainian forces are engaged in an operational long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets, exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses. Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against targets throughout Russia, ranging up to 1,400 kilometers from the international border, on the night of April 28 to 29. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on April 29 that Ukrainian forces struck the Transeft Perm Linear Production Dispatch Station, Perm Oblast, causing fires to almost all oil storage tanks at the station. The SBU reported that the station is a strategic hub for Russia’s oil pipeline system and distributes oil in all four directions, including to the Perm Oil Refinery. Geolocated footage published on April 29 shows fires at the dispatch station. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Ukrainian Navy also struck the sanctioned Marquise oil tanker using unmanned service vehicles (USVs) 210 kilometers southeast of Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Marquise was flying under the Cameroonian flag, had a carrying capacity of over 37,000 tons, and was traveling without cargo — likely waiting for loading at sea from another vessel. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi posted geolocated footage and reported that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian Mi-28 and two Mi-17 helicopters refueling at a field landing site in Voronezh Oblast, 150 kilometers from the frontline. Geolocated footage published on April 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely also conducted strikes targeting the Orsk Oil Refinery in Orenburg Oblast (roughly 1,300 kilometers from the international border).
ISW has observed geolocated evidence that Ukrainian forces conducted at least 18 strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and at least 41 strikes against Russian military assets in at least 19 Russian federal subjects in April 2026. Ukrainian forces have been steadily increasing the range, volume, and intensity of their long-range strike campaigns against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets in Russia and occupied Ukraine’s territories since March 2026. Ukrainian forces are exploiting the large attack surface of Russia’s deep rear and overstretched Russian oil infrastructure and military assets, supported by increased Ukrainian domestic drone production. Ukrainian long-range strikes also continue to have outsized impacts on Russian oil exports, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stating on April 29 that Ukrainian strikes have left the port of Primorsk, Leningrad Oblast, operating at 13 percent below capacity; the port of Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, at 38 percent below capacity; and the port of Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast, at 43 percent below capacity."I's been clear from very early on that President Trump supported Rusia (Putin). He never made an effort to support Ukraine and only supported Ukraine if he could make money out of the situation.
The stance against Ukraine was extended into an anti European attitude. Which is different than the America First politics. As the America First politics is over a 100 years old.
The stance against Ukraine which might have seemed a detail for Trump had a huge impact Geo-diplomatic wise. As Ukraine is now one of the most technical advanced countries drone wise. The war in Ukraine also brought Europe closed together and even the aggressive stance of Trump made Europe more closer than ever.
Time and time again Trump makes the wrong diplomatic choices. Basically because he is not a diplomat but rules by dictate. He has been a dictator in his business life and he is a dictator now he's a president. He bullies and does not negotiate. This works for him with small countries like Venezuela, but not with China or Europe, not Iran.
Trump does not understand the concept of soft power either as could be seen with dismantling USAID, that gave the US an enormous goodwill and leverage in diplomatic circles.
And now Trump is retracting soldiers from Germany. Another sign that President Trump is basically breaking down the American Empire.
It's sad to see that a country with so much potential has deliberately inflicted pain on itself and is falling apart.
And in this chaos, fascism thrives and billionaires get even richer.The German Chancellor predicted Trump would take an America Last position by threatening to withdraw the frontline of America's national security from Germany.
Yes, this action doesn't make sense, geo-politically wise. It is a simplistic action, taken because the P of the US feels offended. A highly unprofessional attitude, but world leaders know by now that Trump is not a professional, but acts like a child lead by his emotions.
And just to remind everybody who refuses to accept it, Trump as a ... wait for it ...
* Observably Psychopathic as Defined By his
* Pathological Lying
* Observable Lack of Remorse except for maybe his family
* Observable Lack of Empathy (I am glad Mueller is dead)
* Observably Manipulative (his bribe to Morris to drop out of the KY Senate race)
* Observable Grandiosity (there are 2 Kings here, King Charles a...)
* Observable Chronic avoidance of Accepting Responsibility
* Observable Callousness Toward those he has Harmed.
* Observable Vindictiveness and retaliatory cruelty (Comey, James, Brennan)
* Observable Reckless Disregard for Law, Truth, and Consequences (Jan 6)
* Observable Instrumental Use of other People as Tools (firing those IGs)
Those are the 10 traits mental health professionals go to help come up with a diagnosis. Those same mental health professions also tell you you don't need to be a Psychologist or Psychiatrist to correctly observe those traits. Any normal person can see and interpret those.
What any normal person cannot do is tell you the WHY, that is what Psychologist or Psychiatrist add to the Psychopathy question.
What any normal person can also do is go to the MSN and look up the traits of a Psychopath and match them to shat they observe.
{b}In Trump's case, he matches 10 out of 10.[/b] Any normal person can see that
Logic has it that "If a person matches 10 out of 10 markers of Psychopathy, then it follows that any real diagnosis, with a high degree of probability, that person is a Psychopath"LOLOL While I have no doubt your "observations" of your President give you no end of comfort and vast number of reasons to grow and continue the TDS they don't do nearly as much for others.
Certainly they do not support the "conclusions" you have after "observing" him.Yes it's clear that Donald Trump has a syndrome and he's mentally different than many people. But if you love someone, and strong leaders are loved passionately, than this will be seen as a detail, or not seen at all.
When Hitler died, many people cried as there beloved hero died. I've seen the same thing in the Netherlands where a president candidate, who was on the brink of becoming a president and who was a Trump like populist, was shot dead. I saw people cry, as their hero, who was a fascist, died, as if it was a family member.
What scared me is that people vote for fascists in good faith. Not understanding that the person they support is a fascist. Most people think Hitler is a fascist and that this is the only fascism that exists or has existed.
And so are blind to the trademarks of fascism when it is in front of their eyes.
Italian fascism was different than the German or the Japanese or Spanish.
Fascism is strongly patriotic, something that the USA has cultivated for years and has now under president Trump come to fruition.
I recently saw a video about the many fascist training camps all over the US in the late 30'. Promoting the white christian values.
NAZI TOWN, USA | Chapter 1 | American Experience
Fascism is often also connected with antisemitism, but this is not necessary. The fascism you see today in the US and Europe is more against foreigners than Jews.
Make America Great Again - Is a fascist slogan in itself. As the again, refers to a time when America was great. A longing and nostalgia for the past, one of the trademarks of fascism.
And what time are they referring too? The idyllic, like the song Summertime.... Papa is rich, mama is good looking and the cotton is high!!!
The US lives in frightening times, and I hope they can restore the damage that is done, but it will take a long time. To destroy is easier than to build.Historically, about 30 - 35% of a population becomes abnormally attached to a populist leader, whether good or bad; MAGA is no different. The main reasons are a person sees themselves reflected in that leader or they have become brainwashed, if the leader is bad.
We see examples of both in these forums.I am surprised you know Summertime, I used to sing that a lot to myself.
Yes, it's a beautiful but sad song. I never thought about it that much until one day I realized that the song is sung from the perspective of a slave nanny talking to a child from plantation owners. Which makes the whole song a very powerful statement, without mentioning it. Quite political. In the same category as Strange Fruit from Billy Holiday, which is more direct but touches the same subjects.
"What a deserted mall in Moscow says about Russia’s economic woes"
While the world expected a much faster collapse of the Russian economy, Putin was able to use smoke and mirrors to make it look like the sanctions, et al, were a minor inconvenience. It is finally catching up with him as Russians are experiencing some of what Iranians are now.
From one of the most TRUSTED news net works in America - https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/02/business … s-intl-cmdSome Good News on the Ukraine Front
"Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces lost control of 116 square kilometers in April 2026, not counting areas into which Russian troops may have infiltrated. The Russian rate of advance across the battlefield has been steadily declining since November 2025 as continued Ukrainian ground counterattacks, Ukrainian mid-range strikes, the February 2026 block on Russia’s use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s throttling of Telegram have exacerbated existing problems within the Russian military.
The relative decline in the rate of Russian advances may be related in part to annual seasonal patterns. Weather data indicates that average temperatures in eastern Ukraine were about three degrees Fahrenheit colder in Winter 2025 to 2026 (December to February) than in Winter 2024 to 2025, and that Winter 2025 to 2026 was significantly wetter than Winter 2024 to 2025. ISW has previously observed relative declines in the rate of Russian advances during March and April due to seasonal weather effects, namely the muddy rasputitsa season, the period in which melting frozen winter ground and spring rains degrade conditions for mechanized movement. Russian forces have previously increased their advances in May and June as ground dries, and it remains to be seen whether such trends will repeat in 2026. ISW has observed less commentary in 2026 than in previous years regarding the effects of weather conditions on Russian advances, however.
The rate of Russian advances has slowed in 2026 compared to 2025, but the changing character of the war, particularly Russia’s increased use of infiltration tactics over the course of 2025, makes year-on-year comparisons difficult. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized 1,443.35 square kilometers in the past six months (November 2025 to April 2026) compared with 2,368.38 square kilometers seized during the same time period in 2024-2025. Russian forces seized an average of 2.9 square kilometers per day in the first four months of 2026 compared to 9.76 square kilometers per day in the first four months of 2025. Russian forces have been increasingly using infiltration tactics since Fall 2025, however, and ISW created its assessed Russian infiltration layer to depict these infiltration areas as distinct from areas in which Russian forces have advanced and seized territory. Comparisons of Russian gains this year with those of previous years, when infiltration tactics were rarer, are not straightforward, as Russian forces exert a significantly lower degree of control over infiltration areas than they do over seized areas."
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