The Resurrection of the Housing Market

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   REIMillionsposted 13 years ago

   There has been many assumptions of when the real estate market will take a turn for the better. If you had pin point an exact year of when that would be what year would you determine and why?

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      Mutiny92posted 13 years agoin reply to this

      the sooner the better!  I have a house that is being rented out and could use a nice rally in the housing market.  I am hoping that happens as soon as the repo's clear out!

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         REIMillionsposted 13 years agoin reply to this

         though that's not an exact year, that is a Great Guesstimate! As soon as the repo's clear out there should definitely be a drastic improvement in the market. If it is possible for you to take advantage of the plummeted market, I highly recommend that you do so while you can. Thanks for your feedback.

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      dpsimswmposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      Fannie Mae recently published data on vacant rentals, which showed that this market has finally turned a corner.  For months, vacant rental properties were growing because of excess supply overall.  But in January 2011 it fell.   There is still an excess of supply for home buyers from foreclosure inventory that hasn't hit the market.
      
      I would estimate that by August 2011, we'll see significant increases in employment that will propel homebuying.  The bottom is now.

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         bgamallposted 13 years agoin reply to this

         We will either have a housing depression, or an easy money bubble. Watch for the resumption of securitization and the Bernanke Backstop that I wrote about. If these occur we will have another easy money bubble. Otherwise housing must go down more in value.

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   GmaGoldieposted 13 years ago

   18 months to 3 years is what I am consistently hearing.
   
   I want it now or next spring - the sooner the better - I agree with Mutiny92.

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      REIMillionsposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      Have you thought of taking advantage of the heavily discounted properties now or are you focused in getting the best price for your current investments?

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   LVHighRiseposted 13 years ago

   Out here in Vegas, it's been looking pretty dismal, but analysts say we might be one of the first to bounce back.  That this is a common trend with some of the cities that were hurt the most.  This is probably because of the great opportunities for investments.  I heard in 2011 level out and 2012, start to creep upwards!  I can't wait.

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      REIMillionsposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      Yes, I've heard the same thing about Vegas. It seems like one of the best places to invest.

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   Mark Knowlesposted 13 years ago

   7 to 10 years. Las Vegas and other markets based solely on boom money may never recover. Places like Lake Las Vegas for example.
   
   The problem is getting worse. US banks are sitting on 22 million residential properties. 22 million is a lot of properties - many of them are still not fully possessed and are rotting.
   
   Some markets such as Washington DC which have easy access to the public trough are already coming back, but the disparity will continue to cause problems.
   
   And Europe is still in a mess which has been hidden by government spending and illegal injections of money into certain government's coffers.
   
   If you are renting it out and making a profit - hang on to it rather than sell in this market. If you can sell without losing your shirt - I recommend selling now. It is not getting better any time soon.

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      REIMillionsposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      Thanks for contributing to this forum Mark. I am sure that 7 to 10 years will make a lot of people feel queasy in their tummies, but you have backed up your statement pretty well. To know that banks are sitting on over 22 million properties puts a lot of stress on the people wanting to see a fast and quick recovery. I would hope that your numbers are at least off by half and that we can see a significant improvement within the next 5 years. I guess only time will tell.

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      kerrygposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      I don't have your knowledge of the real estate industry, Mark, but as one of HubPages's resident tree huggers, I'd also have to question the ability of Las Vegas and many cities in California and Arizona to recover on ecological grounds. Water is already a serious, serious problem in that region and is only likely to get worse. The Southwest and California are simply not physically capable of supporting the number of people they are currently being asked to support, not at the current rates of water consumption anyway. They've been importing water from Oregon and Washington for decades, but Oregon and Washington have water problems of their own now. Cities like Los Angeles and Las Vegas are going to have to get creative fast, or literally dry up and disappear.

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   Dorothee-Gyposted 13 years ago

   I would say, it depends on the market/state your real estate is in. I guess if you depend only on US-Buyers (like Baltimore or other cities with not much influx of international money), it might go on for quite a while until it gets better and some cities might really take a long-term dive since they have been flooded with too much high-class inventory for that market.
   
   Cities that draw international clientele, like Las Vegas, San Francisco, New York etc, and states like Florida, will see the turnaround way earlier, since the international investors have a keen eye on the situation and just wait at the sidelines to get in after it has hit bottom.
   
   I personally think that Florida is nearing that stage, with more interest from investors now. There are a lot of people with cash in their pockets who only wait for real estate gems falling into their lap, enhanced by a favorable exchange rate. The more the Dollar weakens, the more international buyers will come into the market and get things rolling. American buyers are not moving a lot at the moment with the perspectives on the employment sector being bleak and the worries about the economy still rampant.
   
   Nevada resp. Las Vegas is hard to predict, it depends if the city is able to reinvent itself as a "livable city" (which is a bit hard to do in the middle of the desert). In my book, there is too much residential real estate in Las Vegas for a mere gambling boomtown, so they need some re-interpretation (which they are trying at the moment, let's see how that goes). The water situation adds problems on top, so Las Vegas will be a difficult market for quite a long time.
   
   24-hour cities like New York or San Francisco will recover relatively quickly, because they will always be considered first tier and so investors will not wait too long for prices to deteriorate. Its like in every crisis, if you have Class A real estate in a Class A area, you value will still hold up pretty good, since many of the people who'd normally buy inferior properties now see their chance to get something much nicer.
   
   So, it's the same problem as always: its about quality and location, and the better that is, the sooner the crisis will be over for you, and vice versa.

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      REIMillionsposted 13 years agoin reply to this

      Great Contribution Dorothee! You couldn't have said it better.  Thanks for your input :-)

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         Dorothee-Gyposted 13 years agoin reply to this

         You're welcome!

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   SomewayOuttaHereposted 13 years ago

   in Canada we are not at the 'bottom of the market' yet...it just keeps sliding...have my house up for sale and it's not moving and i don't want to do a 'fire sale'...so will have to determine what to do...in the past 8 months, my price has been chasing the market...so not sure how far 'down' i want to go....my view is that it will take at least 5 years to correct itself...

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   Hi-Barposted 13 years ago

   There is an interesting take on this very subject in this 60 minutes interview (http://www.foreclosurecleanupnetwork.co … o-in-a-new)  If link doesn't work, maybe you can look it up on 60 Minutes.  2010 is supposed to be worse than what we've already been through.  Sub-primes were just the beginning of this terrible mess.  A second wave is getting ready to hit us.   2 other types of deadly loans will contribute to the next downfall....so hang on everyone.  I'm posting this link to a network I belong to and had reposted this interview.  I hope this link works for you because this man put the scare of be-jeezes in me.  He's saying 5 years before things even start to turn around  I live in Seattle/Tacoma area which is the 3rd strongest economy in the US right now but, people are loosing homes right and left...I work in property preservation and don't see any improvements...only getting more calls for bids.

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   DMonsourposted 13 years ago

   I think we'll have another 2-3 years before we see much of an improvement in the housing market.  The low rates are taking the place of the tax credits as far as artificially proping prices short term.  However, lending has tightened and credit score requirements continue to elevate.  The prior along with many consumers facing damaged credit from short sale and foreclosure has greatly limited the buyer pool across the country. 
   
   Couple a limited buyer pool with massive amounts of foreclosures and you have an obvious supply and damand problem that will likely take quite a bit of time to remedy. 
   
   I hope that we see a turn sooner but the market indicators for such a situation do not exist.  The market doesn't have the means to return with unemployment this high.  When we get the job situation under control we'll have much better odds of increasing prices.  If you follow the graphs home prices typically increase with average wage which, right now, is far from what we are all hoping for.

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      canadawest99posted 13 years agoin reply to this

      7-10 years conservatively.  Reason being is that interest rates are going to have to go up to contain inflation, so the average joe is going to have larger borrowing costs and living costs and that prevents prices from rising.

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