There are several categories on which we should rank the economic term of a president let's list them and debate them factually. Feel free to add to this list and post relevant additions. Success or failure on these points dictate a good or bad economic term.
Unemployment, spending, consumer confidence, GDP growth, stock market performance, and inflation.
Unemployment has been falling since within six months of the Obama presidency, this makes sense as being the time frame in which his policies could take effect. Unemployment is falling and has now dropped to below 8%. Obama took rapidly rising unemployment and turned it around completely. Real unemployment has also been falling.
Spending is still high no doubt but inflation adjusted spending (as in real spending) is actually down 2.6% since the beginning of the Obama presidency despite the economic rigors that we are facing (dealing with crisis generally requires higher spending).
Consumer confidence has increased from 61 on the consumer confidence index in 2008 to 71.1 in late September 2012.
GDP growth is a crucial statistic. GDP in the first quarter of 2009 was -6.1% GDP growth now is higher than 2% meaning GDP growth has increased by 400% under Obama.
The Standard and Poor's 500 is probably the best representation of the US market and is also widely considered to be an indicator for the short term future of the US economy, it has grown 70% under the Obama Presidency making this area a complete success.
Inflation has remained constant.
Based on this there is every basis to call the Obama presidency a complete success.
Happy to know that things are getting better in America. What truly impressed me was the investment Obama is making on finding energy alternatives. With most of the oil being in the Middle East, it is a great idea to get oneself free from overdependence on this resource, at the same time go forward on becoming more eco friendly.
I know there's a lot of polarity with this presidential election. As a Filipino, I just wish the best for your country, whoever wins.
Thank you so much for making these points. I have seen your comments in other hubs and decided to check out your hub in which I discovered you are an economist. I wanted to ask you a question because I am not an ecconomist,lol. It would seem to me that if an economy grows too quickly this would create hyperinflation and a large bubble, is this true? Do you believe that China has created such a bubble?
The economy has been growing too slowly, not too quickly. There will be plenty of time to worry about it growing too quickly.
Rapid growth can cause hyper inflation but only if it's not based in real value, for example if the growth is caused by simply creating more dollars then inflation will soon catch up to that. In China their economic growth is based on actual demand and manufacturing so I don't envision any major bubbles, some are of the opinion that China is building too many new cities with no one to fill them and this might constitute a bubble but I am unconvinced that this will occur, it does depend on the economy staying stable.
Thank you for getting back to me on this issue. As Ralph pointed out above I realize our growth is slow. I was just curious if "growing too quickly" had potential hazards.
No, unless of course growth is due to funky investment, like down here in Florida.
So, at what rate or maybe in years, of normal adequate 3% annual growth, how long until bread is say $20 a loaf?
It's not the economic growth it's the inflation that makes the price of things higher in dollar amounts. Inflation is currently 1.7% yearly so it should be a long time before bread is worth that much.
The dollar price of things should go up by about 1.7% yearly is the gist of it.
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