Will Kicking Immigrants Out of US Hurt Our Economy.

1. 84

   My Esotericposted 7 years ago

   This is actually a math question. 
   
   #RealFact: Over the Long-Run, the GDP Growth Rate is roughly equal to Population Growth Rate PLUS Productivity Growth Rate.  Before you say BS, consider this.
   
   From 1960 through 2016
   - GDP grew at a rate of 3.8%.
   
   - Population, on the other hand, grew at an anemic rate of 1.7% and
   - Productivity grew at a rate of 2.1%;
   -- ADD the two together and you get ... 3.8% as well ... that is not a coincidence, by the way.
   
   Why do I bring this up in a forum?  For three reasons: 1) In recent years Productivity has flattened, 2) population growth has been decreasing for decades, and 3) President Trump has gone to war against immigrants, illegal or otherwise.
   
   More #RealFacts to help you answer: 
   
   - There are 43 million immigrants in America (that is 13.3% of total population)
   - Of those, 11 million are undocumented (that is 3.4% of total population)
   - Since 2014 immigration from Mexico has Reversed, meaning America is losing population
   - Of all immigrants 70% hold jobs
   - ALL of the unemployment type measures are at normal levels. 
   - CURRENT population growth is an unsustainable 0.8%
   
   QUESTION (finally) - If President Trump is successful in removing/preventing immigrants from America AND they aren't being replaced by new births, WHAT DO YOU THINK will happen to economic Growth?

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   1. 89

      wildernessposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Nothing.  You've made some rather egregious errors:
      
      "ADD the two together and you get ... 3.8% as well ... that is not a coincidence, by the way"
      
      Actually, yes it is.  Productivity increase is multiplied by the number of workers, not added to an increase in population.  The additive result is a meaningless figure.
      
      "President Trump has gone to war against immigrants, illegal or otherwise."
      
      False; this can be nothing but a slap at Trump for continuing policies of Obama and as such represents only a continuation of work in progress, not something new and frightening.  That the media has made a giant grab for headlines, "blaming" it on Trump is, well, the liberal media in action.  Nothing more.
      
      "ALL of the unemployment type measures are at normal levels."
      
      True...ONLY if your "measure" is the number on the unemployment rolls.  It's pretty common knowledge that actual unemployment (percentage of people that would work if they could) is far greater.  And that means that the jobs filled by the illegals will fill with unemployed Americans instead, cutting unemployment rolls and providing a larger tax base at the same time.

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      1. 84

         My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

         Figured you might say that, but you are dead wrong.  Here is one of my many sources of GDP growth = Population growth + Productivity growth.
         https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications … new-normal
         
         Please show me yours.
         
         You have something else wrong as well - "this can be nothing but a slap at Trump for continuing policies of Obama". Obama limited is deportation to real criminals, not ones who used fake IDs to get a job or the parents of kids who have been here, like forever.
         
         I actually use nine measures surrounding employment: Change in # and rate:
         1. Civ Labor Force
         2. Employment Levels
         3 Full Time Emp
         4. Part Time Emp
         5. Not in Labor Force
         6. Willingly Unemployed
         7, Discouraged Workers
         8. Unemployment Rate
         9 Participation Rate.
         
         Ever measure except participation rate are equal to or better than what Bush left Obama.  Even participation rate is improving under Obama after dropping precipitously under Bush and as a result of the conservative recession.
         
         So you are tell me unemployed white people, those that actually can't find work and want it, will become migrant workers and wait staff, maids and even worse jobs the illegals will take but nobody else will?  If so, you are wrong, otherwise they already would be.
         
         Also, if whites take those jobs, they won't at the wages illegals are forced to work at.  So, you won't complain about the general price increase in food, hotels, and many other things.  That is the REAL world, not the alternate university you and Trump live in.

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   2. 0

      promisemposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Is illegal immigration really a right versus left issue? Reasonable people can agree that legal immigration is good and illegal immigration is bad.
      
      Illegal immigrants get only part of the blame for coming here. Government gets some of it for not stopping them and the businesses who hire them get the rest.
      
      But suddenly throwing out millions of working illegal immigrants will lead to millions of unfilled jobs and a jump in the inflation rate.
      
      So again, let's hope that reasonable people in charge will solve the problem over time and not all at once.

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      1. 89

         wildernessposted 7 years agoin reply to this

         Close, but no cigar.
         
         Illegals get 100% of the blame for coming here - while we could do a better job protecting our border, there will ALWAYS be ways to get around, over or under it.
         
         We DO, however, bear a portion of the blame for allowing them to stay.  Even knowing who some were, we allowed (and even encouraged) them to stay.
         
         I don't think those jobs will remain unfilled for long...if they are paying a reasonable wage.  If not they should remain unfilled.

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         1. 0

            promisemposted 7 years agoin reply to this

            They wouldn't come here if they couldn't get a job. They wouldn't stay here if they couldn't eat.

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            1. 89

               wildernessposted 7 years agoin reply to this

               That doesn't make Americans responsible for their crime.  Any more than a homeowner shares responsibility with the cat burglar that breaks into their home.

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                  promisemposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                  Yes, it does. They are knowingly hiring illegal immigrants for the sake of paying below minimum wage and avoiding employment taxes that support Social Security and Medicare.

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                  1. 89

                     wildernessposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                     Agreed.  But that has nothing to do with the decision to break the law.  We allowed them to stay, but they made the decision to enter the land of milk and honey - that that land is rich does not shift blame from the law breaker to the rich.

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                     1. 84

                        My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                        The problem, actually, is the law itself.; it shouldn't be written in such a xenophobic way.  Those who are breaking the law are, if fact, a valuable resource to America ... IF the laws were written in such a way as to take advantage of them.

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                        1. 89

                           wildernessposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                           Xenophobic?  Isn't that the definition of closed borders?  Those who are breaking the law are, in fact, costing the nation something over $10,000 each.  Per year.  That doesn't seem very valuable to me...
                           
                           Than an employer gains a few pennies does not make them a "valuable resource to America".

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                           1. 84

                              My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                              Xenophobia - http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/20/politics/ … index.html
                              
                              And, no, they contribute to the national economy much more than they cost it.
                              
                              Altogether, according to the state and local tax data analysis—published by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP)—undocumented immigrants contribute about $11.6 billion to the economy annually, including nearly $7 billion in sales and excise taxes and $3.6 billion in property taxes.Mar 14, 2016 - https://www.thenation.com/article/undoc … each-year/
                              
                              And you would rather give up that $11B rather than change the law.  SAD.

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                              1. 89

                                 wildernessposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                                 "And, no, they contribute to the national economy much more than they cost it."
                                 
                                 Of course they do.  NOT
                                 
                                 http://www.heritage.org/immigration/rep … s-taxpayer
                                 https://amac.us/illegal-immigration-cost-1/
                                 
                                 (Listing contributions while carefully "forgetting" to list costs does not indicate that they contribute more than they cost.)

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                           2. 84

                              My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                              Xenophobia - intense or irrational dislike or fear of people from other countries.
                              
                              And no, illegals don't cost the taxpayer anything, other than the cost of building walls and deportation forces.  Instead they contribute billions which you seem to want to take out of the American economy rather than chnage the law.  Why?
                              
                              Altogether, according to the state and local tax data analysis—published by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP)—undocumented immigrants contribute about $11.6 billion to the economy annually, including nearly $7 billion in sales and excise taxes and $3.6 billion in property taxes.Mar 14, 2016
                              https://www.thenation.com/article/undoc … each-year/

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                              1. 89

                                 wildernessposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                                 "And no, illegals don't cost the taxpayer anything, other than the cost of building walls and deportation forces."
                                 
                                 Now why would you promote such an obvious lie?  Is there some hidden agenda requiring that the truth be concealed?  Some reasoning behind pretending that they don't require schools, jails, or interpreters?  Is there a purpose in claiming they don't get means tested welfare (housing, EBT, etc.)?  Why would you want to "forget" increased car insurance prices because of those driving illegally?  Is it all just to promote the lie that they contribute more than they cost?
                                 
                                 Each illegal family costs the American public a net (that's net, after "contributions") of over $10,000.  TANSTAAFL, and that includes feeding 10 Million illegal aliens.
                                 
                                 http://www.heritage.org/immigration/rep … s-taxpayer
                                 https://amac.us/illegal-immigration-cost-1/

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                           3. 84

                              My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                              For those that are interested, this link lays out in great detail why that $10,000 an illegal immigrant per year.
                              http://www.factcheck.org/2009/04/cost-o … mmigrants/
                              
                              The fact is, studies show illegals are more productive and less crime prone than their natural born counterpart.

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                              1. 78

                                 jackclee lmposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                                 So by that logic, why not invite more illegal immigrants here?  What is the limit? Is there a limit? And when does a country stop being a country?

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                                 1. 84

                                    My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                                    That is a logical question, but the wrong one.  I see more important questions being 1) why are native-born Americans less productive and unwilling to work certain jobs and what can be done about it and 2) why are native-born Americans more prone to to commit crimes and what can be done about that? (rather than focus on the one illegal who killed that lady in San Francisco and make him look like he is indicative of ALL illegals, how about working on identifying home-grown terrorists and stopping them from mass murder?
                                    
                                    Also, if we "invited" more illegals here, they wouldn't be illegal in my estimation.
                                    
                                    What needs fixing is the immigration laws themselves so that immigrants who are willing to work jobs native-born Americans refuse to work can come here legally.

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                                    1. 78

                                       jackclee lmposted 7 years agoin reply to this

                                       I agree with you. Why our politicians on both isles refuse to do the right thing? and allow this travesty to go on for years and years...

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         2. 84

            My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

            If these jobs you are talking about remain unfilled, then YOU don't eat because there will nobody to pick the vegetables.

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            1. 89

               wildernessposted 7 years agoin reply to this

               Yeah, yeah,  I know.  And if they don't build your house for you, you will sleep under the stars.
               
               Isn't that tired old cliche getting a little old?

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      2. 84

         My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

         I sort of disagree with thinking illegal immigration is "bad".  When population growth is flat, then any kind of immigration is good for the economy.  The label "bad" I would think only applies to when society suffers noticeable harm from the immigration.  For example, if say 25% of those crossing the border were career criminals, then that would qualify as "bad"; if it is only 1%, then not so much and the economic benefit outweighs any harm.
         
         America, like most nations, is naturally xenophobic, even though we, as a people, often try not to be as a matter of policy.  But many times throughout our history, the kind of xenophobia that Trump has ignited in America has often times led to great harm to the people being discriminated against as well as the nation itself; the harm being both material and a lessening of our national character.

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   3. 0

      ahorsebackposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Even in my tiny state of Vermont there are illegals , What do you suppose they do for a living ? 
      Let me enlighten you ;
      
      The dairy industry here   is a dying  industry ,  they are going broke . They have been for years  , however besides that point  ,   illegal immigrants are employees there ,  according to the media  which not many people trust as being good accountants  , there are  around two thousand  illegals working here in Vermont on dairy farms doing manual labor .. Just about two miles from where I live there is a dairy farm that has approximately   30 of these single employees ,   They work the farm of approximately  500-600 dairy cows  in  three shifts  ," Hot bunking "   ,  this is where  3 workers share the same  bed , each sleeping  and working the same job for approximately  7- 8 dollars an hour .
      That's 7.00 -$ 8.00 an hour .   
      For the most part some  part of that eight dollars an hour goes back to Mexico or below that in support of their families at home , these men [women ] work "below the radar "  .
      Do you think they pay  state , local or federal taxes ?
      Do you think they are protected by fair labor laws ?
      Do you think their kids at home   are insured ?
      Do you think they are protected by AND from  employers  exploitations , insured , or have  retirement packages .health care etc....?
      
      Lets debate this one .

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   4. 78

      jackclee lmposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      I happened across this forum today.
      To answer the question, illegal immigrants in our country reduce the GDP. Legal immigration in general help raised the GDP.
      The difference has to do with the quality of the workers coming here.
      Legal immigrants are usually better educated with higher skills and they tend to work in high income jobs and pay taxes...in some cases, with H1B visa, they are doing some jobs we are lacking in skills...
      On the other hand, the illegal immigrants are usually low skills or no skills. They work for minimum wage and yes, they may perform some jobs that Americans are not willing to do. That is due to our entitlement system where some people are discouraged from taking low paying jobs...
      
      They also incur costs that are not easily measured such as schools, and hospitals where they and their children go for social services...
      Another factor is the crime rate.
      All in all, we need strict border control to keep our country safe. Every other nation has similar policy.
      
      Your estimates of illegal in our country are much lower than reality.
      Officially, that is the reported number. However, I believe they are much higher. Unfortunately, our government under both Democrat and Republican administrations refuse to count them. There is a whole underground economy that is much larger...
      Some estimates of illegals are as high as 30 million. I don't know what is the correct number but I do know 11 million is off the mark. It is not only illegals from our southern border even though that is the highest percentage. Some are here from Asia and from all over the world, over staying their tourist and student visa. Again our government failed us in tracking these people. Some of the 9/11 hijackers cane over this way. You think we would have learned our lesson.

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      1. 84

         My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

         Illegals crime rate is LOWER than natural born citizens;  I use this source out of dozens I found because I thought you would find it more credible.
         http://www.businessinsider.com/immigran … ech-2017-3
         
         For the same reason I offer this Forbes article, among many, that speaks to the myth that illegals take our jobs, lower our wages, and reduce our productivity ... they don't.
         https://www.forbes.com/sites/artcarden/ … 10bab1771a
         
         How do you know 11 million illegals is off the mark?  Your source please.
         
         Actually NONE of the 9/11 hijackers came into America illegally and only TWO overstayed their visas on technical grounds, bureaucratic bungling gave them the wrong visa.  Had they had the right visa, then they would not have overstated.
         http://www.factcheck.org/2013/05/911-hi … ent-visas/
         http://www.factcheck.org/2015/07/graham … sas-again/

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2. 74

   Castlepalomaposted 7 years ago

   The model of unemployment from 1970s would make unemployment rate today about 15% to 20% , not 40% like Trump says. Still on the edge of a great depression since private debt is 20% greater and national debt about the same as great depression. 
   
   Trump solution is to blame it the minimum wages Mexican, ban Muslims (uncontitutsional ) and cut tragically foreign cheap trade.  Then creates an delusion that he going after the wealthy  corrupted  corporations, when he has been one himself all his life. Giving more finance to the Zionist won't help the common Americans, AMERICA IS pretty  well screwed.

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3. 74

   Castlepalomaposted 7 years ago

   Not only has US Corp created worldwide poverty. It's all going to come home to roast in America. Trump will not be able to feed the many by oil and coal, wail kicking out the fruit and  vegetable pickers. It's all unbalanced favouring the wealthy.  Adding 20% custom tax to Mexican food imported,  is going to backfire when they are trading more with China now. Don't  think feeding  poor with cake,  alcohol and giving them gambling chips is going to work either.
   
   If this clown offers everyone NY Steak. The pitch forks and meat choppers are coming out.

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      My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      While I am not a friend of most  big corporations of any nations, I can't go along with the notion that corporations create poverty; they don't.  Corporations do what they need to to make money; many times immorally, unethically, and illegally but they aren't responsible, per se. 
      
      Instead, it is the governments who are at fault.  It is the governments who can regulate the corporations and set the tax policies which can go a long way to reducing poverty.

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      1. 74

         Castlepalomaposted 7 years agoin reply to this

         Do you think most people actually believe in Government fairytales work for the people?. Or do they pick from the two evils?.
         
         US Government are corporations too and corporation have bought off the natural environment,  supermarket and etc....  more for them and always less for you. Collective consciousness of the people is the only real positive change throughout human history . Not lobbyist or backdoor politics corperatism who own the Federal Government. Capitalism you can regulate, never corporatism.

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         1. 84

            My Esotericposted 7 years agoin reply to this

            Actually, I do, and not because I spent two careers working for the Army and Air Force.  I do because I study American history. I can see what it was like to live 200, 100, 50 years ago and even with the current debacle in the White House, I don't know of another period I would like to live in or, save for Canada, any other country.
            
            Against all odds from conservative opposition and some horrific decisions regarding blacks, Native Americans, imperialism in the 1800s has progressed to one of the most free, prosperous, idealistic nation in the world.  (I would have said inclusive, but that is not really true, is it.)
            
            I won't bother with the corporation because I personally know it isn't true.

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            1. 74

               Castlepalomaposted 7 years agoin reply to this

               There is a few countries I know with centuries of more impressive history than America. As far as all the genocides and war side of America history.  The suffering and discivilized starting from Columbus crews piracy, gold rush' and slavery has been too ugly to describe from my museum history displays.
               
               If America wants to keep this tradition of rape and pillage with Corporatism on this earth, I will deal with other nations. I have done more deadly dangerous jobs than a cops or military troop have. Nobody puts metals on me or promotes me. No other corperation employment group is greater in the world, than the US justice system and the US military complex. Today it all for the worst disease on the planet, called corporation operation greed. That harms both our freedom and security.

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4. 50

   Endlesslarryposted 7 years ago

   Legit point on cost per criminal.I'll assume it's correct.However,criminals also maintain
   employment for a large number of citizens who have careers wrapped up in the Law Enforcement racket.We need some Law Enforcement,but the Criminal Justice Degree
   Is a racket.Ever wonder why the Corrections
   Officers Unions oppose legalizing marijuana?
   They want more people locked up.Not less.You think these people want crime to cease?To want that would be like the mechanic not wanting engine problems.No criminals,and alot of people are out of work with worthless paper for College Degrees.

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