New Hampshire Predictions?

1. 71

   Peter M. Lopezposted 16 years ago

   Will Obama go 2 for 2?  Probably not, but possible.  Hillary probably, but closer than the experts think.
   
   McCain or Mit?  Huckabee will make it tighter than most think even though it is NH.  McCain & Mit split the top vote, so Huckabee will be a close 3rd.

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   1. STAFF

      pauldeedsposted 16 years agoin reply to this

      If you believe the latest New Hampshire democratic and republican polls it will be Obama by 8% and McCain by 5%.  I don't have any reason to suspect them, so imagine it will be pretty close to that.

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2. 59

   jorminsposted 16 years ago

   I think Obama wins by 10%, but Edwards can't repeat.  Hillary defeats him by at least 5%.
   
   I also think McCain and Romney is much closer than people think but McCain pulls out a 2-3% win with Huck & Chuck down 10-15% below them.  After seeing the most recent debates I think Obama might have pulled a few more votes from the undecided voters that might have gone for McCain.

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3. 0

   helenathegreatposted 16 years ago

   jormins pretty much took the predictions right out of my mouth!  I second all of it. 

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4. 59

   College politicoposted 16 years ago

   The way it looks now is that Obama will beat hillary. Could even be another blow out... I'm not quite sure but Obama plays really well with independents and NH is about 40% independent. I see Edwards coming in third and possibly dropping out.
   
   On the Republican side I see McCain beating Romney in a reasonably close race and Huckabee coming in about 5 points behind second. But again NH is a bit harder to predict than other states... I guess we will see what happens.

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5. 61

   Earth Angelposted 16 years ago

   Earth Angel weighing in here!!
   
   Even though I have been a registered Republican most of my life I am voting Democratic this year!! I am for Obama all the way!!
   
   I think Obama WILL come in 1st later tonight in New Hampshire followed by Edwards and Hillary trailing!!
   
   I think a nice party ticket would be Obama as President with Edwards as his Vice President!!
   
   
   In reality, I think we pretty much all want the same thing: A better, safer, healthier, cleaner, more balanced, more harmonious, more tolerant, more prosperous, better respected USA!!
   
   Blessings, Earth Angel!!

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6. 59

   College politicoposted 16 years ago

   I'm not sure how successful a Obama/Edwards would be. Usually the parties look for a balanced ticket and both of those candidates are playing further to the left. If Obama wins the nomination (which is looking more likely everyday) he would most likely need to find a more moderate running mate.

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7. STAFF

   pauldeedsposted 16 years ago

   Hillary manged to squeak out a win in New Hampshire after all, but there is a lot of speculation flying around that the diebold voting machines may have been rigged.
   
   http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/200 … hires.html
   http://benmoseley.blogspot.com/2008/01/ … ction.html
   
   What do you all make of these conspiracy theories?

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   1. 59

      jorminsposted 16 years agoin reply to this

      If those numbers are true I hope CNN or somebody picks up on it and puts it on the airwaves for the masses to see.  I have to admit I was shocked in the numbers rolling in last night.  I was thinking perhaps a slimmer Obama win due to Hillary "showing how human she is" coincidentally  choking up with extremely great timing.
      
      Can they do a recount if some tampering is found?  That would be a really interesting development.

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      1. 62

         C.M. Vanderlindenposted 16 years agoin reply to this

         It's my understanding that in a primary a candidate can request that the ballots be recounted if there is any kind of discrepancy in the results.  I'm not 100% positive on that, though...just remembering back to my undergrad political science classes

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8. 62

   C.M. Vanderlindenposted 16 years ago

   Interesting. I want to believe that the polls were just off, but how could the Republican polls have been almost dead on, while the Dem polls were totally wrong? I guess that at this point, I wouldn't really be surprised by anything.
   
   One theory for Hillary ending up with the win was that NH voters were responding to the media's misogynistic attitudes toward her (they all had a field day ripping on her for crying the other day). I don't know. I was really looking forward to voting in the primaries, but I'm in Michigan, so we MI Dems are being punished because the state moved our primary forward. I can vote for Hillary, Kucinich, or "Uncommitted" and no one's campaigning here. It really sucks.

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9. 71

   Peter M. Lopezposted 16 years ago

   I am at the same time patting myself on the back for the Hillary upset call, and banging the back of my head on the upswing for the missed Republican prediction...

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