Until both parties select their nominee it will be hard to predict.
If the economy stays about the same and there are no new terrorist threats the democrats will most likely to win the general election.
As of now the electoral college map has the democrats getting 270 votes to the republicans 268. Naturally that could change depending upon who the nominees are and what happens within the country by election time. Swing states and independents decide elections.
Historically the country tends to favor gridlock.
If the republicans control congress than a democrat is elected president and vice versa, On those instances where one party controls both changes are usually made during the following congressional/senate elections to divide power.
Overall people aren't comfortable with (one party) in control.
Interesting overview. I guess in 10 weeks or so we will know who the nominee will be from each party. I do wonder how Bloomberg could impact things. I would contend that if it ends up being a Sanders vs Cruz/Trump that may be a real possibility.
As I am not an American - a neutral perspective.
Firstly I wouldn't make any predictions at this stage, it is too early to make a sound judgement.
Watching the primaries though there seems to be a trend to, let us call it, "purism". Many Republicans seem to want a "real" conservative, which is why Cruz is so popular with them. Many Democrats want a "true" liberal, which is why Sanders is doing so well.
Assuming those two went on to win the nominations, Donald Trump might take umbrage and run as an independent. Meanwhile Michael Bloomberg is making noises that the centre is not going to be represented and he could make a run as an independent as well.
Which gives you four serious candidates (I know that in every Presidential election, there are more than two candidates, but you never hear much about anyone except the Republican and Democrat running - not even the Libertarian or the Green Party candidates get much consideration).
If this happens, this could end up being very complicated!
Living in Germany these days where there are five major parties (and a sixth potentially emerging), this isn't so strange to me personally, and run-offs are sometimes needed when an out-and-out winner is required (as happened in Frankfurt in the last mayoral election). Americans may though find the whole thing rather strange. If nobody wins an outright majority in the electoral college, what happens then?
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