How much of an impact will the Presidential debates have on the support of the nominees?
Presidential debates have no impact on my vote. However, this year the debates will have enormous impact on the independent vote. The bar is so low for Trump, that if he looks statesmanlike for 30 minutes it could sway voters in PA or NC. Not sure on FL. He will still have a hard time making headway in South Fla or any other Hispanic community.
HRC can rope a dope and survive. All she needs to do is to look healthy and sound experienced.
This might be one of the most significant debates we've ever had.
Trump will convincingly win FL... he was essentially tied for votes received in the primaries with Clinton... both got just over 1 million votes.
Now consider Rubio and Cruz got a million votes combined, Bernie 1/2 million, and Inds are 2/1 for Trump
Ken, but won't more people turn out on the Dem side for the general election? Bernie was not really competitive in FL. Voters figured they'll just wait for the general. I believe more than 1/2 of the Cruz/Rubio voters will go for HRC.
Few Rep voters will go for Hillary, 99% will go Trump or 3rd party.
I doubt half of the Bernie supporters will go to Hillary. And I expect two thirds of the Independants who were unable to vote in FL primaries will go for Trump.
The debate is HUGE in my opinion. This is where Trump wins the election hands down (at least popular vote wise, if not electoral college) or he loses it.
I like what Trump says he stands for... Pro-America, Pro-American Worker, Pro-Military, strong against Terrorism and illegal immigration.
But he needs to be able to articulate his positions in the debates, he needs to be able to appear to be a strong viable world leader in the debates... and he needs to show he can answer the questions with a comprehensive understanding of the issues presented, not with some canned on-the-campaign-trail answer.
I am not sure what Clinton can say or do to change my opinion of her... if she stands firm on issues and past decisions that are not popular now, if she defends her positions and speaks what I know is truth on certain issues that would impress me... she has always been one to say whatever is politically prudent, she has always been one to shift blame "the youtube video caused those riots" sometimes with so obvious a lie as to make even her most ardent supporters doubt her, for a moment.
Ultimately Clinton has a much bigger hill to climb than Trump to get my vote... but if Trump proves to be totally inept in these debates, and she comes across far stronger, and more believable than I have seen to date, then it is possible for Trump to lose my vote. I would say I am not alone in this... however if Trump exceeds expectations, and presents very well in this first debate, this election is essentially over and he will win the popular vote.
If Trump loses your vote does that mean you're voting for Hillary or not voting at all (given third party is same as not voting at all)
As I said, it depends. I don't know what Trump would have to do to turn me off that badly that I would support Clinton, or what Clinton could do to sway my opinion of her for the better... but it IS possible, whatever I think is best for America.
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