Do you believe in political polls?
I personally think that political polls are biased. So the one I believe is the one that is most accurate IMHO : Clinton -333 favorite to win - Trump +240 underdog, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
There are some highly reputable polls which have proven to be fairly accurate over the years. The Gallup Poll is one noteworthy example.
Having said that it's easy for there to be bias in polls based upon what questions are asked or not asked.
Also if you ask people who they are going to vote for and only present Trump and Clinton as their only options you're likely to have a different percentage outcome than if you gave the people four candidates to choose from including (Gary Johnson and Jill Stein).
Polls are deficient in that they usually only measure popular vote scenarios. However in the U.S. it's the Electoral College state by state winner take all that determines the outcome.
The winner of California alone will get 55 of the needed 270 electoral votes. That's 20%!. Blue and Red states rarely swap.
This process makes it possible for someone to win the popular vote across the country but still lose the election. This is what happened in the 2000 election where Gore had more popular votes than George W. Bush.
Ultimately a poll is nothing more than a snapshot tool measuring one moment in time that gives candidates a feel for the pulse of the voters. It can motivate the campaign to work harder if it's close or cause some voters to stay home if it's not close.
The ask: "If the election were being held (today)....etc"
All it takes is one news cycle or major crisis to make the wind shift.
Note: No one ahead in the polls has ever complained about the polls.
Heard that the betting odds place is the most accurate over the years. Probably because people are betting $$ where their mouth is.
Political Polls are only somewhat accurate because it is a tool of social engineering, telling the sheep what to do. It should be called the Pavlov Polls. I am going to ring the bell now.
I get calls at my home conducting polls. None of them involve telling me who to vote for.
These days they're not even human beings calling!
They ask you to press numbers in response to questions.
Do you feel reporting poll results is bad?
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