How accurate are the political polls like Gallup etc., in predicting the winners in the election?
There are many competing polls and it is like every TV networks, newspapers, Wall Street Journal conduct their own poll.
The last several years Rassmussen has had the best trackrecord of predicting winners. Yet no poll is flawless. Often times there can be an issue that breaks just before the election that throws all the previous data out the window. Anybody remember the VP debate from 1992 with Ross Perot's running mate. One really bad comment greatly altered his ability as a 3rd party candidate. He polled much better before that and even had a shot.
I think the Gallup poll, specifically is most accurate at any given time. If they take a poll and then something significantly bad comes out about a political figure, however, then of course their polls would probably be off.
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