There are already enough threads about Coronavirus, so I didn't want to do this one.
But it is necessary. Some people here, in an effort to defend Trump or criticized Obama (whichever is it) and/ or minimize the threat of Coronavirus, keep comparing H1N1 death toll vs Coronavirus (so far) deaths. Another person even called Coronavirus a nothingburger.
So, lets compare numbers.
First of all, the estimates of H1N1 global death toll is between 200,000 to 500,000. CDC estimate there were 285,000 deaths.This is important, but why? Because these are estimates based on all the data from 12 countries and case-fatality ratios (CFRs) reported from five countries. Estimates are also how we get the numbers of influenza deaths, etc.
WHO numbers, based on reported deaths, is 18,449. But that number is regarded as well below the true total, mainly because many people who die of flu-related causes are not tested for the disease.
OK. Lets see.
After a year of H1N1, the reported deaths were 18,449. Right now, just 3 months after the first Coronavirus case, there are 25, 278. That is almost 7,000 more deaths in 1/4 of the time.
Remember. These are reported cases. Keep in mind the 18,449 = 285,000.
Three months after the first case of H1N1, there were 98,000 global cases and 440 deaths.
In Coronavirus case, in three months there are 559,103 cases and 25,278 deaths.
Do the math.
Now lets get to the ignorant point of some Hubpages members.
H1N1 in US was mismanaged and the government did nothing, based in the death toll. (And Im not judging the government response, just the faulty logic of some here.)
The H1N1 death toll ESTIMATES in US is 12, 469. This was from April 2009 to April 2010.
The first case of H1N1 in US was in April, 2009. Three months in, there were 33,900 cases and 170 deaths.
Right now, there are 85,548 cases and 1,321 deaths.
That is 1,151 more deaths than H1N1 at the time.
By October 2009, global deaths were 5,000+ and US deaths were 1,000+ deaths.
We don't know how many more deaths Coronavirus will cause. Hopefully, there will be a vaccine soon enough. But you can't say everything is perfectly manage now, but then "they did nothing", based on H1N1 estimates.
Plus, to the irresponsible persons that keep minimizing and misinforming... I hope you don't have to change your tune because you or your family get sick.
When I opened this thread, 28 hours ago, there were 85,548 cases and 1,321 deaths in USA.
Just 28 hours later, there are 119,938 cases and 1,991 deaths.
Doesn't sound like anything that is going to blow over anytime soon to me.
So, it is a little more problematic than the common cold. I hope the rightwingers can see the light. But, I hear they are now attacking Fauci for correcting Trump and his erroneous information about th virus and needed precautions, so he is now part of the "Deep State".
This is simply exponential growth. Can be easily computed by applying the logarithm to basis e . ln(natural logarithm) of 2 (for doubling) is 0,693. Multiply with 100 to get to percent and you have a handy number: 70. Divide this 70 by the day to day growth rate and you have the doubling period. From Friday to Saturday (27-28.03) we had some 20%. Gives a doubling period of 3,5 days.
Do the same trick for a magnitude (x10) and you get the ln(10)= 2,30. As the US is already beyond 100k infected, it should take some 11 days to pass the million infected.
In a fairly controlled situation (you know, who is infected - you take measures to prevent contagion, you have adequate health care and intensive care resources), with these conditions you have a death rate of 1%.
Hits mostly elderly people with precondition. What does this mean? Aren´t those people potential pass away candidates anyways? Cruise ship "Corona Princess" had 750 infected and 8 deaths with more than 3000 people on board. Environment was perfect. 100% tested, no infection numbers in the dark. You can compute the death rate yourself. But what is more interesting: Natural death toll for the quarantene period was very close. Just think it over, a death rate of 1% means life expectancy is 100 years.
The real issue with Covid19 is that it spreads very fast and congests and overloads the health care system. I am an old industrial consultant and in industry we call this a bottleneck. First mandatory rule is to protect the bottleneck, meaning to inject as many resources as possible and to route unnecessary production around the bottleneck for relief.
Until here it is all fact. Now a little political excursion. Looking at the situation in NYC and NY, i think the state and local administration do exactly the right thing to keep the machine, the health care system running. But upper management is obstructing. Upper management only likes blue machines and not red machines. They tell the red machine with the bottleneck not to offload production to the blue machine and spare parts are also better only for the blue... Could continue, you understand what i mean.
If i found this situation in a production plant, i would get the guy in charge fired immediately. But i am not the people, not a politician.
This is really good info. Thank you for taking the time to do this. :-)
New Cases +19,988
New deaths: +565
Daily rate of infection increases is slowing down a little. Too early for a regular progress of the pandemic. Possibly limits in testing capacities have impact.
Listened yesterday to the press conference of Governor Cuomo. State of New York seems to be doing what must be done. (refer to my earlier comment). Looks like this guy Cuomo is the right man in the right position.
US is getting close to the 12k H1N1 deaths.
Right now Covid deaths are 9,325.
The difference is H1N1 are estimates. When this finally end, we'll get the Covid estimates.
People that still downplay this emergency should be ashamed.
They should be more than ashamed. They are insidious in their scope. H1Ni is a very serious disease as COVID-19 is. Pandemics are serious & nothing to take lightly. As for now, I am staying inside my apartment & only going out to shop for necessities. 12K H1N1 death is a very gravely serious matter.
In less than 3 months, Covid-19 has caused more deaths than H1N1 caused in a year.
USA Total Deaths - 12,795 (New Deaths) +1,924
Again, keep in mind those 12k H1N1 deaths were estimates. When the CDC do the Covid death estimates, the toll would be significantly bigger.
There may be light at the end of the tunnel. Gov. Cuomo is tentatively speculating that their recent numbers may be indicating NY has reached its apex of infections.
*fingers crossed - that would be good news
Yes, I hope it finally gets under control. It is so sad and scary.
But is going to be a huge number (even if only with those almost 13k).
Total global declared deaths of H1N1 were 18+k (so right now USA is only 5+K under) and the CDC estimates it were 285K deaths.
Perhaps a bit premature. NY had the highest amount of deaths today. I do hope this changes tomorrow though.
Try to follow this logic. Up to now, the USA have done some 2 Mill. tests. Result was identification of some 360k infected. That is an overall hit rate of 18%. Today presumably 150k tests per day are done. With a hit rate of generous 20% that will identify 30k newly infected per day.
Death rate is still very high with growth rates not flattening the curve. Newly infection rate is somehow halting at 30k growths per day, making the curve transform from exponential growth to linear growth.
My explanation for this may be questionable, but the little milkmaid maths tells me that lack of testing resources prevents from knowing the real virus spreading.
So - am i wrong?
Last week in Germany we had some 40k newly infected with a testing count of more than 500k. That is a hit rate of less than 10%. South Korea was at less than 3% hit rate. To get a clear picture the US would have to run at least 500k plus tests per day. As far as i understand, this is not happening.
A really frightening story. The more the situation progresses, the less is known, the more is in the dark. While in Italy all deaths are Corona tested, this is not happening in NYC. So i bet Corona death figures in NYC are undercounted. Sorry to say.
I certainly hope i am wrong, so please correct me.
At this point, Covid deaths in US are more than double the H1N1 deaths.
Total deaths - 25,854
New deaths - +2,214
And unfortunately, that is not going to stop for weeks to come.
Total global deaths - 125,949
Yeah but some on the forums claimed it wouldn't take more lives, and was not as contagious, as the H1N1 virus was, IB.
As some larger population countries are mostly though with the first wave, today the US takes a 43% share of all active cases worldwide, and growing.
There is a little over 2 Mill. active cases worldwide and some 860k cases in the US.
In Europe the UK now is in the lead with active cases, having passed both Italy and Spain.
US daily death rate is currently adding some 20% to natural death rate of 1,25% for the US population.
USA Total Deaths: 81,552
Now, the people that kept minimizing Coronavirus and assured us that it was nothing compare with H1N1, can only peddle conspiracy theories about wrong numbers, greedy hospitals, unethical scientists. They can't admit they were wrong.
If I had to guess at this point I'd say that the estimate of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths, assuming social distancing and shutdown, was a pretty good one.
I agree. That's what Dr. Birx said, even when Trump was saying it would be lower.
"Our projections have always been between 100-240,000 American lives lost and that's with full mitigation and us learning from each other of how to social distance," Birx told Chris Wallace on "Fox News Sunday."
Would their projections change now that there is no longer full mitigation? Lets hope not.
Total Global Deaths: 347,293
Total US Deaths: 99,381
Six weeks ago, there were almost 13K deaths in US. Now, there are almost 100K. Six weeks! And we're still counting...
But for some is more important to go to the beach, or a crowded restaurant. Not even a mask, oh, my freedom! Idiots.
We will always wonder what it would have been if we did nothing, just continued life as if the virus did not exist.
Personally, I believe that the estimate of 2,000,000 under that scenario was likely a reasonable one. Even if we eventually hit the 200,000 mark (top of the predicted range) it still means our efforts saved the lives of 1,800,000 people.
The 2 million never was reasonable. Even if administrations did nothing, death count would be much lower. People simply protect themselves if matters get really dire. They isolate and distance automatically.
People already did so in ancient times. What is written in the bible about how they treated leprosy people. What happened to people with the Black Death in the Middle Ages?
Certainly this high number looks convenient if politics want to claim success. But there is no such achievement, no such success, if you compare to 2000 years ago.
"What happened to people with the Black Death in the Middle Ages?"
They died. Using quarantine and "social distancing" as a basic tool, it is estimated that as much as 60% of Europe died during the black death plague. For America that would be some 180,000,000 people. Kind of puts that two million in a different perspective, doesn't it?
People died in the Middle Ages, because they had no or primitive knowledge about treatment and because people were starving after cold winters and bad harvest periods. However they had basic understanding of how to prevent spreading and infecting. The word quarantine has its origin in 1349, because all incoming ships in the Meditarrenean were isolated for 40 days. (French: une quarantaine de jours).
And what social (i would say physical) distancing does, was experienced in the USA in the early 20th century (Spanish Flue): https://www.cityhealth.org/blog/2018/12 … kers-today
Without any commanding by administrations, a lot of commen sense will appear when people personally understand or are subject to the threat. Depending on their social conditioning they will either wear masks or they shoot the people who are coming too close. No way that theoretical numbers will be seen in any society on the planet haunted by Corona before vaccine solution. Theoretical is 60% for herd immunity multiplied with 1% fatalities (the 2 mIllion in the US)
Of course shooting is no common sense solution, i tried to amplify.
And what have we done differently than the middle ages to control the spread of the virus? They quarantined infected people - we do the same. They practiced "social distancing" and commerce closures (albeit voluntarily rather than by law) - we do the same.
And that's it! Yes, we have better treatment than they had, but the issue of control has remained nearly static. At least until we get that vaccine.
When it comes down to it, they may have done a better job than we are, with our beach parties, bar openings and other entertainment stunts. Of course, if we had a 60% death toll we might not be having those parties either...
I've seen that herd immunity requires at least 80% infection rate, and quite possibly more. I've also seen your 60% rate. I don't think we have a good handle on that concept yet - certainly it didn't work (at 60% level) with the Plague.
It was found out that reproduction factor is at max. 2.9 to 3 (1 infected infects 3 new). This was fairly easy to analyse because all countries with outbreaks and no countermeasures in early stages had this figure.
Now, all you have to do is get this R- number below 1. That is achieved by having a smaller part of the population vulnerable for infection (From 3 for 100% population to 1 for 33% (1/3) of population). So the other 2/3 must have immunity. That is where this number of 60..66% herd immunity is coming from. More will help, but is not necessary.
wilderness, as you rightly pointed out, the real issue will be how to make all those beach party goers aware of what they are doing to their grandmas and grandpas. A really tough task in the US with so many contradictory signals from political leaders.
A forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects more than 127,000 coronavirus deaths in the country by June 27.
US Total Deaths - 110,179
US showing signs of retreat in battle against COVID-19
When throngs of tourists and revelers left their homes over Memorial Day weekend, public health experts braced for a surge in coronavirus infections that could force a second round of painful shutdowns.
Two weeks later, that surge has hit places like Houston, Phoenix, South Carolina and Missouri. Week-over-week case counts are on the rise in half of all states. Only 16 states and the District of Columbia have seen their total case counts decline for two consecutive weeks.
The statistics are startling. The average number of confirmed cases over a two-week period has doubled or more in Arizona, Arkansas, Oregon and Utah. Fewer than a quarter of intensive care unit beds in Alabama, Georgia and Rhode Island are available.
In Texas, the number of people admitted to the hospital has grown 42 percent since Memorial Day. Arizona’s top health official has urged hospitals to activate their emergency plans.
North Carolina, California, Mississippi and Arkansas are all reporting record levels of hospitalizations.
US Total Deaths: 116,034
New cases of the novel coronavirus broke single-day records in Florida and South Carolina on Thursday, according to health officials.
The Florida Department of Health confirmed 1,698 additional cases of COVID-19 within the preceding 24 hours, nearly a 20 percent increase from the state's previous high of 1,419 reported last Thursday.
Health officials in Florida have now confirmed at least 966 new positive cases every day since June 3, which comes after the state began its reopening process last month.
South Carolina also recorded a record total of 687 coronavirus cases on Thursday -- surpassing its previous high of 542, set just three days earlier -- the state's Department of Health and Environmental Control reported, according to Columbia's WLTX-TV. South Carolina now has at least 16,441 confirmed COVID-19 cases, based on data from Johns Hopkins University.
In recent days, the U.S. saw a 36.5 percent increase in daily cases, a striking difference compared to the top 10 other countries with the most COVID-19 infections to date, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Due to the recent spike in cases, Ashish Jha, head of Harvard's Global Health Institute said in an interview with CNN that he believes fatalities from the virus would nearly double in the U.S. by the fall unless action was taken to limit its spread.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida- … single-day
US coronavirus cases at highest level since April
The daily number of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is the highest it has been since the height of the pandemic two months ago, as several states around the country experience spikes in cases.
On Tuesday, 34,700 new cases of coronavirus were reported, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The school's coronavirus tracker shows only two other days in which more new cases of the virus were recorded: April 9 and 24.
Hospitalizations are increasing and so are the percentage of tests coming back positive, indicators of growing outbreaks in those states.
Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warned members of Congress on Tuesday that the U.S. could reach 100,000 new COVID-19 cases per day if the country does not get a handle on the pandemic.
Speaking before the Senate health committee, Fauci said the country is heading in the “wrong direction" as the average number of daily cases continues to go up.
“We need to do something about that and we need to do it very quickly," said Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
The U.S. is now recording 40,000 new cases per day, surpassing previous records set in April when New York was the epicenter of the outbreak.
The US is now almost, almost to peak first wave active infection numbers.
Having said this, it is worth while to look at what other countries had still to come after having peaked active cases.
Germany peaked first wave in the beginning of April. At that time 1.200 deaths. Now: more than 9.000 death.
Italy peaked first wave on April 19th, then 23.000 death, today 36.000.
South Korea peaked first wave on March 12th, then 65, today more than 300 death
UK shows no active cases, but daily new infections peaked April 20th, thus active cases probably peaked end of April. Death then: 26.000, today 41.000.
What i want to say: Even for well performing and responding countries, then aftermath is awful: Germany 8 times fatalities, S.Korea: 6 times fatalities, but a low absolute numbers, even if normalised to population.
The US i beg to put into the category of bad or late responding countries. This would mean the US peers with Italy and the UK. And that means that fatalities to be expected are at least 60% above current numbers at the end of first wave. So don´t be astonished if by next March there will be 260 to 270 thousend fatalities, even with vaccination by then activated.
Last 4 week period had some 35.000 covid19 deaths in the US. In that same time period the natural mortality is (my quick and dirty pick without looking it up): 330.000.000 / 80 years life expectancy / (52/4 weeks) = 320.000 deaths. Covid19 is more than 10% of the natural mortality. Lets better hope that with economy slowing, less people die from obesity, traffic accidents, work accidents, you name it. Anyways (this is twisting statistics now): Covid 19 takes some 8 to 10% of life expectancy from everyone. What an outlook.
In Germany the person identified as case no. 1 had already lost his antibodies/immunity after some 3 months. What does that tell us?
I don´t understand why the US is allowing active cases to get so much out of control. A very sad story.
More than 200k deaths in US
Almost a million Worldwide
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