The economy

1. 77

   Kathleen Cochranposted 9 months ago

   https://hubpages.com/politics/president … he-economy

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2. 79

   Brenda Arledgeposted 9 months ago

   Scott has written a compelling article.
   
   There isn't much any President can do nor is it his fault for this economy.
   He does say prices are going down, which sadly in my little corner of the world....that does not seem to be the case.
   
   Groceries are outrageous.
   
   I paid $4.99 for 5 lb of potatoes.
   Bread & Eggs are unbelievable.
   
   I know I'm having issues with everything going up...but I suppose things could be worse.
   
   Good write though.

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   1. 95

      wildernessposted 9 months agoin reply to this

      Yes, groceries are still going up, as is gasoline.  Of course, the government does not consider those two items in deciding what prices are doing.
      
      Convenient, isn't it?  Two of the greatest costs for all of us, left out of the equations.

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      1. 75

         Ken Burgessposted 9 months agoin reply to this

         So true.
         
         Inflation is a direct consequence of government over-spending.
         
         Inflation continues to be well above the Federal Reserve's target, and the national debt recently topped $31 trillion just eight months after it crossed $30 trillion.
         
         Let that sink in, it took them less than NINE MONTHS to blow through a Trillion dollars... how much longer do you think we have before that makes the Dollar worth HALF what it is today?
         
         The underlying causes: President Joe Biden's continued spending binge.  And Joe Biden's War.
         
         Its a simple concept, when the government spends money it doesn't have, it in essence creates more dollars, making each dollar worth less.
         
         The war in Ukraine has impacted the global economy, the cost of many food items, the cost of gas and oil.
         
         Also alienating Saudi Arabia has impacted the cost of gas and oil, and the more gas costs, the more every item purchased costs, as transportation costs get added to the price of the product.
         
         Costs for gas that are double what they were in 2019, I don't see it improving anytime soon.

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3. 84

   Sharlee01posted 9 months ago

   "An overwhelming majority of business economists still see a 50–50 chance the U.S. economy goes into a recession within the next year, according to a new survey published by the National Association for Business Economics.
   
   About three-quarters of respondents, 71%, reported the odds of an economic downturn within the next 12 months is about 50% or less. That marks a sharp reversal from April, when about 44% projected a more than 50% chance of a recession within the year.
   
   More than one-quarter of economists pegged the likelihood of a downturn at 25% or less.
   
   "A majority of panelists is more confident about the economy over the next year as they see the probability of a recession diminishing," said Carlos Herrera, the NABE Business Conditions Survey chair and chief economist at Coca-Cola North America.
   
   The uptick in sentiment reflects rising sales and profits over the past three months. The survey indicates that the percentage of respondents reporting rising sales continued to outstrip those reporting falling sales. Businesses are also feeling more optimistic about future profits over the next three months.
   
   The economists also noted that material costs continued to fall at the beginning of the summer.
   
   Finally, businesses reported that wages at their firms were unchanged during the second quarter for the first time since 2021. Rising wages have been a key component of the inflation spike in the U.S. as businesses competed with each other to hire a limited number of workers.
   
   "Results of the July 2023 NABE Business Conditions Survey reflect an economy of rising sales and profits, as material costs decline and stabilizing wages prove less challenging," said NABE president Julia Coronado in a release.
   
   The survey, which was conducted between June 30 and July 12 and includes responses from 52 NABE members, comes amid signs of cooling inflation.
   
   The Labor Department reported earlier in July that the consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of the price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 0.2% in June from the previous month. Prices climbed just 3% on an annual basis, the lowest level in two years" --- read more
   
   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economis … 55668.html

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   1. 60

      Willowarborposted 9 months agoin reply to this

      July 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the central bank's staff no longer forecasts a U.S. recession.

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      1. 77

         Kathleen Cochranposted 9 months agoin reply to this

         Willowarbor: You'll have to post this at least three more times to make a dent. Thanks for the source.

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         1. 84

            Sharlee01posted 9 months agoin reply to this

            And maybe post the article, its full context indicates Jerome used the words "we have a shot"... Or better yet here is Jerome offering his own words.
            https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/07/26/f … ssion.html

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            1. 90

               IslandBitesposted 9 months agoin reply to this

               Thanks for the video that confirms what Willowarbor said.
               
               
               “The staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast, but given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession.”

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               1. 84

                  Sharlee01posted 9 months agoin reply to this

                  Actually the complete transcript of his speech, and question and answer period tell a very different outlook for the economy.  Jerome suggested there are some big hurdles possibly ahead to return the country back to the low inflation we had under Trump. It is a bit lengthy but gives a more appropriate complete picture of whAt Powell shared.
                  
                  https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacen … 230726.pdf

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               2. 86

                  Valeantposted 9 months agoin reply to this

                  No amount of accurate quoting will convince the hardcore Trumpists here of anything but their own doom and gloom outlook for the country when another party leads.

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                  1. 84

                     Sharlee01posted 9 months agoin reply to this

                     Val,
                     Hey, quotes are fine, but the quote was taken from literally thousands of words from his speech, and question and answer period. Sorry, he did not project such a rosy picture during his speech or the Qand A.
                     
                     He was honest, he was somewhat upbeat, but seem to be sharing some elements of our economy that need to hold, and more need to happen to repair the economy, and avert further problems.
                     
                     I am certainly not arguing he said the few words that were quoted here, but hey, one only needs to read the entire speech to see that one sentence just did not fully offer his view of what could come of the economy in the future.  It seemed to me as if he was saying we have a shot if all continues to go well to avoid a recession.
                     
                     No gloom and doom, hey I took the time to have a long read, the transcript is interesting and full of economic information.
                     
                     Actually, I think you would find the transcript interesting.

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                     1. 60

                        Willowarborposted 9 months agoin reply to this

                        Are Jerome Powell and the central bank still forecasting a recession?

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                     2. 86

                        Valeantposted 9 months agoin reply to this

                        In actuality, the quote was taken directly from the specific question pertaining to his views on recession, not from his actual speech.  In this instance, it also appeared to be the first question pertaining to recession.  So while he talked about many other economic factors, he was very specific about his, and his staff's, views about leaning away from believing there would be a recession due to the strength of the economy. 
                        
                        Something that has to pain any Trump supporter to admit as it would make it harder for their deity to be elected if Biden is actually overseeing a strong and improving economy.

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                        1. 84

                           Sharlee01posted 9 months agoin reply to this

                           Yes, I think the transcript gives a wider picture. That's what I was sharing.
                           
                           As Powell said we have a shot at things going right. I am just pointing out that many economists are not of the same mind, just another view. No need for anyone to pick up a club, and beat my opposing view down.

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4. 77

   Kathleen Cochranposted 9 months ago

   Most of the world was in the same inflation boat - as always - and it had nothing to do with Trump. Very little about inflation has to do with a sitting president.
   
   "Regardless of the absolute level of inflation in each country, most show variations on the same basic pattern: relatively low levels before the COVID-19 pandemic struck in the first quarter of 2020; flat or falling rates for the rest of that year and into 2021, as many governments sharply curtailed most economic activity; and rising rates starting in mid- to late 2021, as the world struggled to get back to something approaching normal."
   
   https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads … ng-higher/

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