Is your vote based on the economy?

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  1. Kathleen Cochran profile image74
    Kathleen Cochranposted 8 months ago
    1. Sharlee01 profile image84
      Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

      I'm approaching my vote with a strong focus on the economy. After carefully examining both candidates' agendas, I've looked into what many economists have to say and analyzed historical examples of past policies that in some way mimic what the candidates are offering. Looking at what worked and what did not work out well historically.

      I am also considering the candidates' economic records during their time in office, including what they supported while serving in their administration and the outcomes of those policies on the general population, as well as the country. 

      I find it somewhat less biased to look at the available facts regarding the economy. These facts, along with information about various policies, are accessible, and there are also valuable historical insights on previous economic policies that can inform our understanding. I guess one could say this is one of the easier issues to put in perspective when adding to the list of pros and cons.

    2. Ken Burgess profile image72
      Ken Burgessposted 8 months agoin reply to this

      Articles like these, and reports put forth by our major media outlets in general, continue to promote such economic "truth" that flies in the face of most American's realities.

      An overwhelming number of Americans are not better off today than they were four or five years ago economically, more Americans today are struggling to get by, struggling to pay the bills.

      Even those people who are not struggling, they gripe about steak that used to cost 12 dollars now costing 37.  Gas that used to be around $2 a gallon now being around $4, and so on.

      1. Valeant profile image77
        Valeantposted 8 months agoin reply to this

        $2 a gallon at the height of a pandemic where there was no reason to be driving.  The usual far-right distortions.  And it's down under $3 where I am now.

      2. Sharlee01 profile image84
        Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

        Many Americans feel they are not better off today than they were four or five years ago, particularly in the context of rising living costs. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center found that 56% of adults reported feeling financially worse off compared to prior years. This sentiment is echoed in a Gallup poll, where over half of respondents stated that their financial situation had worsened, attributing their struggles to increased expenses and inflation.

        Here are some key statistics regarding poverty and income in the United States for 2023:

        Poverty Rate: In 2023, approximately 11.5% of the U.S. population lived in poverty, representing about 39.8 million people. This marks a slight increase from 2022's rate of 11.3%​(Census.gov).

        Income Levels: The median household income was $74,580, which is about a 2.3% decrease from the previous year when it was$76,066(Census.gov)​(Census.gov).

        Child Poverty: The child poverty rate stood at 16.3%, affecting about 8.9 million children​(Census.gov)​(Census.gov). This was a slight increase from 2022, when the rate was 15.5%​(Census.gov).

        Racial Disparities: Poverty rates varied significantly by race and ethnicity. In 2023, the poverty rate for Black or African American individuals was 19.8%, while for Hispanic individuals, it was 18.1%. In contrast, the rate for non-Hispanic white individuals was significantly lower at 7.7%​(
        Census.gov).

        1. Willowarbor profile image61
          Willowarborposted 8 months agoin reply to this

          What are Trump's specific plans to reduce childhood poverty? The cost of housing? The cost of groceries?  Raise wages?

          1. Sharlee01 profile image84
            Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

            I must first ask what are Harris's, and please offer how her agenda will be paid for ... In 60 minutes interview she could not answer that even after being asked three times.  It would well appear you ignore all questions regarding Harris. However, have many regarding Trump.  Trump openly offers his agenda, and how he plans to bring it to fruition.

            Trump has outlined a multifaceted agenda to address childhood poverty and the related issues of housing and food costs, with a strong emphasis on economic growth and job creation. He believes that keeping present tax codes or reducing the tax burden further on individuals and businesses will stimulate economic activity, leading to job creation and higher wages.

            Trump's administration has advocated for deregulation to encourage investment, which he argues can drive down costs for housing and groceries by increasing competition. Additionally, he has proposed initiatives to bolster vocational training and apprenticeship programs, aimed at equipping young people with the skills needed for well-paying jobs. By focusing on these economic strategies, Trump aims to create an environment where families can thrive, ultimately reducing childhood poverty and its associated challenges.

            Trump’s plan to bolster vocational training includes several key components aimed at enhancing educational opportunities and creating a skilled workforce. He proposed increasing federal FUNDING for vocational and technical education programs through grants to support schools and organizations that provide hands-on training in high-demand fields. ( I feel this form of funding supports adding well-educated workers, that will grow our nation. 

            Harris presents a plan that could hinder our nation by promoting social programs that lack incentives for work. Instead, these programs may encourage a dependency on government support, undermining the efforts of those who strive for success and self-sufficiency.

            A crucial aspect of Trump's initiative involves encouraging partnerships between educational institutions and local businesses, allowing schools to tailor their programs to meet the specific needs of the job market, ensuring students gain relevant skills that employers are seeking. Trump has also emphasized the importance of expanding apprenticeship programs, which provide students with valuable work experience while still in school, creating a direct pathway to employment upon graduation. Additionally, by advocating for the inclusion of Career and Technical Education (CTE) in high school curricula, Trump aims to ensure that students are aware of and can pursue various career paths that may not require a traditional four-year college degree. Finally, he has suggested reducing regulatory burdens on educational institutions that offer vocational training, making it easier for them to operate and innovate in their program offerings. Through these initiatives.

            Trump’s agenda aims to cultivate a skilled workforce prepared to take on future job opportunities, ultimately fostering economic growth and reducing childhood poverty. He promotes a sense of pride and achievement, while Harris's approach is viewed as promoting stagnation rather than progress.

            Trump offers a fishing rod, whereas Harris offers a fish.

            1. wilderness profile image79
              wildernessposted 8 months agoin reply to this

              "Trump offers a fishing rod, whereas Harris offers a fish."  I would add that Harris's "fish" belongs to someone else; she must first confiscate it before giving it away.

              But I do like the comment; it fits very well with how I see the two parties when it comes to their basic philosophy.

              1. Sharlee01 profile image84
                Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

                So true—and I can only picture the fish she offers being quite small. Would she genuinely want her supporters to feel satisfied without reaching out for a frozen fish stick? After all, some people prefer Chilean sea bass, while others are content with free frozen fish sticks that require no effort to obtain.

  2. Credence2 profile image81
    Credence2posted 8 months ago

    After reading this, it is obvious that for most Trump supporters it is not.

  3. Valeant profile image77
    Valeantposted 8 months ago

    Hell no.  I'm voting to see Trump brought to justice for his 2020 coup attempt.

  4. Willowarbor profile image61
    Willowarborposted 8 months ago

    WSJ poll of 39 economists... the vast majority vehemently disagreed with some of Trump’s most popular policies.

    "When it comes to eliminating taxes on tips, 87 percent oppose it, believing it would have little impact on lower-wage workers; 85 percent oppose extending, or making permanent, Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. One hundred percent oppose imposing tariffs on imported goods.

    And sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists warned in an open letter that a second Trump term would have a “destabilizing effect” on the U.S.’s domestic economy and negatively impact its world standing."

    An analysis from the Peterson Institute For International Economics found that Trump’s policies would “worsen American living standards.”

    Eighty-eight current and former executives in corporate America predicted Trump’s policies “risk reigniting inflation” and would “lower GDP growth” and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in an open letter.


    “As a bundle, the policies are pretty terrible,” Dr. Josh Bivens, a Chief Economist and Senior Researcher with the Economic Policy Institute said. “They will raise taxes on the vast majority of households on net while cutting taxes for the very rich and maintaining the tax cuts on corporations. They will create all sorts of weird unintended effects. No big problem currently facing US working families is really addressed.

    “If they’re all undertaken, it is a near guarantee that the result would be higher interest rates and higher inflation,” Bivens said.

    Trump's economic plans? There are no for me.

    1. tsmog profile image76
      tsmogposted 8 months agoin reply to this

      How a Trump Win in 2024 Could Impact Inflation in 2025 by GOBankingRates (Oct 8, 2024)
      https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/ec … inflation/

      The most important quote is . . .

      "A separate report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics suggested that Trump’s policies could cause the U.S. inflation rate to climb “between 4.1 and 7.4 percentage points higher than otherwise by 2026.”

    2. wilderness profile image79
      wildernessposted 8 months agoin reply to this

      ""When it comes to eliminating taxes on tips, 87 percent oppose it, believing it would have little impact on lower-wage workers..."

      This is something I don't understand.  If it will have no impact on lower wage workers it will have no impact on tax roles.  If that is the case why in the world do we impose the onerous record keeping rules on businesses AND employees that receives tips?  Just because we can?

    3. Sharlee01 profile image84
      Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

      Eliminating taxes on tips could be a meaningful policy for low-wage workers, and dismissing its impact overlooks several important considerations. While some argue that 87 percent of people oppose the measure because they believe it would have little effect, this view may underestimate how taxes on tips disproportionately burden workers in service industries. Tips often make up a significant portion of their income, and even a small tax break could improve their financial stability. For many in low-paying jobs, every bit helps, and removing the tax on tips could reduce their overall tax burden, allowing them to keep more of their hard-earned money. Additionally, tipping is already a volatile source of income, and reducing taxes on it could provide more predictability and relief for workers who rely on tips to make ends meet. Rather than dismiss the idea, it might be more beneficial to consider how this policy could contribute to alleviating the financial challenges faced by low-wage earners.

      As of now, Donald Trump has not made any specific public announcements about plans to change the tax rates he implemented during his presidency. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 was one of the hallmark achievements of his administration, significantly lowering tax rates for corporations and individuals. Trump has frequently praised the impact of the TCJA, particularly on economic growth and job creation, and has continued to defend its provisions.  It appears some are providing media with if comes...


      This bunch seems to like to write letters...
      Sept  2021 ---Open letter from Nobel Laureates in support of economic recovery agenda
      The American economy appears set for a robust recovery in part due to active government interventions over the past year and a half, including President Biden’s American Rescue Plan. But, reversing years of disinvestment in public goods and addressing the country’s long-term needs—including building toward sustainable and inclusive growth and facilitating our clean energy transition—will require more.

      (Related content: Debunking 5 Top Inflation Myths)

      Success in the 21st century will require building upon the bi-partisan infrastructure deal that has passed the Senate, which prioritizes investments in our nation’s “hard” infrastructure. The President’s Build Back Better agenda employs a broader conception of infrastructure by making critical investments in human capital, the care economy, research and development, public education, and more, which will REDUCE families’ costs. 

      While we all have different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we believe that key components of this broader agenda are critical—including tax reforms that make our tax system more equitable and that enable our system to raise the additional funds required to facilitate necessary public investments and achieve our collective goals. Because this agenda invests in long-term economic capacity and will enhance the ability of more Americans to participate productively in the economy, it will ease longer-term inflationary pressures.

      Signed by 17 recipients of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences:

      George A. Akerlof, Professor, Georgetown University
      Sir Angus Deaton, Professor, Princeton University
      Peter Diamond, Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
      Robert Engle, Professor Emeritus and Co-Director of the Volatility and Risk Institute, New York University
      Oliver Hart, Professor, Harvard University
      Daniel Kahneman, Professor, Princeton University
      Eric S. Maskin, Professor, Harvard University
      Daniel McFadden, Professor, University of California, Berkley
      Paul Milgrom, Professor, Stanford University
      Roger Myerson, Professor, University of Chicago
      Edmund S. Phelps, Professor and Director of the Center on Capitalism and Society, Columbia University
      Paul Romer, Professor, New York University
      William Sharpe, Professor Emeritus, Stanford University
      Robert Shiller, Professor, Yale University
      Christopher Sims, Professor, Princeton University
      Robert Solow, Professor Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
      Joseph Stiglitz, Professor, Columbia University

      The same group wrote a letter in 2016 regarding Trump's economic plan---
      Yes, a group of Nobel Prize-winning economists signed an open letter in 2016 warning that Donald Trump's economic plan would likely lead to negative consequences for the U.S. economy. The letter, released during the presidential campaign, criticized Trump's proposals, particularly regarding tax cuts, trade policies, and immigration restrictions. The economists argued that these policies could increase the federal deficit, raise inequality, and create instability in the economy.  For a full copy of the letter, you can access it directly (Columbia Business School
      )ps://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Joseph_Stiglitz/Nobel%20letter%20on%20the%20economy.pdf).

      It would appear they got it wrong regarding Trump and Biden in the end.

      1. Willowarbor profile image61
        Willowarborposted 8 months agoin reply to this

        I cannot find a letter from 2016.  Is there a direct link?

        1. Sharlee01 profile image84
          Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this
          1. Willowarbor profile image61
            Willowarborposted 8 months agoin reply to this

            Using the information from your first post, I was led to the following. 

            https://business.columbia.edu/sites/def … conomy.pdf

            This is their letter discussing the economic impacts of  a Trump second term.

            1. Sharlee01 profile image84
              Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

              Yes, I read that letter, which led me to examine their track record in predicting economic outcomes—and it's quite poor. Hopefully, you checked out the links I provided. It’s interesting that they endorsed Biden during his campaign, believing his plan would be beneficial for the country. Yet, we’re now living through what many see as the fallout of his failed economic policies. Back in 2016, they harshly criticized Trump’s economic proposals in comparison to Clinton's, but we saw that, up until COVID, Trump's economy was thriving. It seems this group consistently gets it wrong.

              So, I must say, I have no confidence in what they stated in their 2024 letter regarding Trump's economic plan. I've done my own research and have shared it extensively here on HPs with People Power in this thread. I’m not about to repeat myself again.

              Let me add that Harris has not provided anything concrete regarding an economic plan. She’s made a lot of promises about what she intends to deliver, but there’s no clear explanation of how she plans to fund it. Has this group published a letter evaluating her economic proposals? I’m unsure how any economist can assess a plan that lacks real details. I shared information about Trump's economic plan and how he intends to finance it.

              Can you provide any details on Harris’s economic plan? I haven't found anything about how she would pay for it. Additionally, she had a great opportunity to discuss her plan on 60 Minutes but failed to do so, even after being asked three times about funding. I don't understand why the focus seems to be solely on Trump's economic plans when there appears to be little attention given to Harris's proposals. Trump's administration was on fire, Biden/Harris were the water that put the fire out.

              I am very satisfied with Trump's proposals. I find them fresh and bold, completely breaking from the status quo. I believe they can help Americans refocus on striving for the American Dream through capitalism.

              1. Willowarbor profile image61
                Willowarborposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                'Which presidential nominee has the better economic agenda to get Americans back on track? According to nearly 40 economists from America's top schools surveyed by the Financial Times and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business' Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets, it's Harris instead of former President Donald Trump, the GOP presidential nominee.

                When asked which nominees' economic policies would be more inflationary—in other words, which would be more likely to cause inflation—70 percent of the economists said Trump's while only 3 percent said Harris'. Meanwhile, 27 percent said there is no material difference in each economic platform's inflationary consequences.

                A total of 70 percent also thought Trump's economic platform would produce larger federal budget deficits, while only 11 percent said Harris' platform would and 19 percent said there would be no material difference.

                Then we have Moody's and Goldman Sachs , the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget, Penn -Wharton and more that all support the Harris plan over Trump. 

                How Will trump offset the costs of his plan?  Tariffs that essentially all economists believe will be passed on to consumers. His  plans also result in  the middle class paying more in tax. .  Harris will raise the corporate tax rate to 28% and a slight increase in the top tax bracket.   

                https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris- … ey-1953940

                1. Sharlee01 profile image84
                  Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

                  I looked over your link, and it offers little in terms of a concrete economic plan from Kamala Harris. The most I could find was a vague outline of her proposals: she aims to expand tax deductions for small businesses, restore and increase the child tax credit, and lower housing costs through down payment assistance for first-time homeowners. To finance these initiatives, she plans to raise taxes on the wealthy and large corporations and crack down on price gouging to help with grocery bills.

                  However, implementing such large social programs requires Congressional approval, and the specifics of how she intends to fund these proposals remain largely undefined. This lack of clarity makes it difficult for economists to assess her plan effectively. They rely on her campaign documents, speeches, and broad principles she has put forward, including investments in social programs and infrastructure. Yet, as we've seen with previous evaluations, economists have often been inaccurate in their predictions, particularly regarding Biden’s and Trump’s economic policies. Many of their forecasts about the Biden administration's economic outcomes were significantly off the mark, many economists praised his economic plan. It is clear his economic plan was a disaster, and we have all lived it.  Just as they were with Trump, whose economy was performing well until the onset of COVID-19. Many economists predicted his plan would put the economy in danger.

                  Harris's proposals appear to lean heavily on handouts and tax increases, which raises concerns about their realism and implications for democracy. The notion of funding expansive social programs through taxing the rich is not only questionable in practice but could undermine the democratic principles that have contributed to America's prosperity. It's troubling to consider that such an approach might gain traction, especially given the historical significance of individual liberties and market-driven success in shaping our society. How can anyone support relinquishing the democratic ideals that have built this country?

                  As of yet, you have provided nothing that would have me believe you have found out anything regarding how Harris's plan would be paid for. You offer many leftist economists simple evaluations of her plan without clear information but what she is saying at rallies...  To be honest just about every article I have read regarding Harris economic plan the authors have add caveats such as " The wide range of possibilities reflects considerable uncertainty about her fiscal policy stance at this point, leaving a large void regarding how she might deal with the already unprecedented, dangerous, and unsustainable federal debt trajectory." or "We relied on what she has shared on the campaign trail, and interviews."   

                  Just quoting these types of evaluations holds water in my book. I pointed out a few incidences of just how wrong some economists have been.  It is important to rely on these folks' past records, is it not?

                  1. Willowarbor profile image61
                    Willowarborposted 8 months agoin reply to this

                    https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/upl … tunity.pdf

                    "As of yet, you have provided nothing that would have me believe you have found out anything regarding how Harris's plan would be paid for."

                    I have repeatedly written about the increase in the corporate tax rate as well as the highest income bracket rates.

  5. tsmog profile image76
    tsmogposted 8 months ago

    https://usercontent1.hubstatic.com/17220422_f1024.jpg

  6. Willowarbor profile image61
    Willowarborposted 8 months ago

    Trump and Harris tax plans side by side...

    https://www.claconnect.com/en/resources … -proposals

 
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