Are Poor Views Of Biden Helping Trump In Polls?

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   Sharlee01posted 8 months ago

   
   
   How G.O.P. Views of Biden Are Helping Trump in the Republican Primary
   In interviews and polling, many Republican voters believe President Biden is so weak that picking the most electable candidate to beat him no longer matters.
   
   "Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida has run into a surprising buzzsaw in his bid to sell himself as the Republican Party’s most electable standard-bearer in 2024 — and it has more to do with President Biden than it does with Donald J. Trump.
   
   For months, Republican voters have consumed such a steady diet of clips of Mr. Biden stumbling, over words and sandbags, that they now see the 80-year-old Democratic incumbent as so frail that he would be beatable by practically any Republican — even a four-times-indicted former president who lost the last election.
   
   As Mr. Trump’s rivals take the stage for the first debate of the 2024 primaries on Wednesday, the perceived weaknesses of Mr. Biden have undercut one of the core arguments that Mr. DeSantis and others have made from the start: that the party must turn the page on the past and move beyond Mr. Trump in order to win in 2024.
   
   The focus on “electability” — the basic notion of which candidate has the best shot of winning a general election — was most intense in the aftermath of the disappointing 2022 midterms. Republicans were stung by losses of Trump-backed candidates in key swing states like Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And the issue offered a way to persuade a Republican electorate still very much in the thrall of Mr. Trump to consider throwing its lot in with a fresh face in 2024. It was a permission slip to move on.
   
   But nine months later, interviews with pollsters, strategists, elected officials and Republican voters in early-voting states show that the dim Republican opinion of Mr. Biden’s mental faculties and political skills has complicated that case in deep and unexpected ways.
   
   “I mean, I would hope anybody could beat Joe Biden at this point,” said Heather Hora, 52, as she waited in line for a photo with Mr. Trump at an Iowa Republican Party dinner, echoing a sentiment expressed in more than 30 interviews with Iowa Republicans in recent weeks.
   
   Mr. Trump’s rivals are still pushing an electability case against the former president, but even their advisers and other strategists acknowledge that the diminished views of Mr. Biden have sapped the pressure voters once felt about the need to nominate someone new. When Republican primary voters in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll were asked which candidate was better able to beat Mr. Biden, 58 percent picked Mr. Trump, while 28 percent selected Mr. DeSantis.
   
   “The perception that Biden is the weakest possible candidate has lowered the electability question in the calculus of primary voters,” said Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist and a longtime adviser to Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader.
   
   More than two-thirds of Republicans who described Fox News or another conservative outlet as the single source they most often turned to for news thought Mr. Trump was better able to beat Mr. Biden in the Times/Siena College poll, a 40-point advantage over Mr. DeSantis. Those who cited mainstream news outlets also said Mr. Trump was the stronger candidate to beat Mr. Biden, though by less than half the margin.
   
   There is little question that Mr. Biden has visibly aged. The president’s slip onstage at an Air Force graduation ceremony in June — his staff subsequently blamed a stray sandbag — is seen as a moment that particularly resonated for Republicans, cementing Mr. Biden’s image as frail, politically and otherwise.
   
   Google records show search interest for “Biden old” peaking three times in 2023 — during his State of the Union address in February, when he announced his 2024 run in late April and when he fell onstage in June. The number of searches just for “Biden” was higher after his fall than it was around the time of his re-election kickoff.
   
   Interviews with Republican voters in Iowa in recent weeks have revealed a consistent impression of Mr. Biden as weak and deteriorating.
   
   “It’s just one gaffe after another,” Joanie Pellett, 55, a retiree in Decatur County, said of Mr. Biden as she settled into her seat in a beer hall at the Iowa State Fair four hours before Mr. Trump was set to speak.
   
   “What strength as a candidate? Does he have any?” Rick Danowsky, a financial consultant who lives in Sigourney, Iowa, asked of Mr. Biden as he waited for Mr. DeSantis at a bar in downtown Des Moines earlier this month.
   
   “He’s a train wreck,” said Jack Seward, 67, a county supervisor in Washington County, Iowa, who is considering whether to vote for Mr. Trump or Mr. DeSantis.
   
   Kevin Munoz, a campaign spokesman for Mr. Biden, said Republican depictions of Mr. Biden as old were “recycled attacks” that had “repeatedly failed.”
   
   “Put simply, it’s a losing strategy and they know it,” he said. “Republicans can argue with each other all they want about electability, but every one of them has embraced the losing MAGA agenda.”
   
   Some Republicans worry that their voters have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about the challenge of beating a Democratic incumbent president. The last one to lose was Jimmy Carter more than four decades ago.
   
   “Electability is more than just beating Biden — Republicans need to choose a candidate who can build a majority coalition, especially with independents, to win both the House and Senate,” said Dave Winston, a Republican pollster.
   
   There were always structural challenges to running a primary campaign centered on electability. For more than a decade, Republican voters have tended to care little about which candidate political insiders have deemed to have the best shot at winning — and have tended to revolt against the preferences of the reviled party establishment.
   
   Then there are the hurdles specific to Mr. Trump, who was portrayed as unelectable before he won in 2016, and whose 2020 loss has not been accepted by many in the party.
   
   In a sign of how far electability has diminished, Republican voters today say they are more likely to support a candidate who agrees with them most on the issues over someone with the best chance to beat Mr. Biden, according to the Times/Siena College poll. They are prioritizing, in other words, policy positions over electability.
   
   Mr. DeSantis has sharpened his own electability argument heading into the first debate, calling out Mr. Trump by name. “There’s nothing that the Democratic Party would like better than to relitigate all these things with Donald Trump,” Mr. DeSantis said in a recent radio interview. “That is a loser for us going forward as a party.”
   
   The picture is brighter for Mr. DeSantis in Iowa, according to public polling and voter interviews, and that is where he is increasingly banking his candidacy. More than $3.5 million in television ads have aired from one anti-Trump group, Win It Back PAC. Those ads are explicitly aimed at undermining perceptions of Mr. Trump with voter testimonials of nervous former Trump supporters.
   
   “For 2024, Trump is not the most electable candidate,” one said in a recent ad. “I don’t know if we can get him elected,” said another.
   
   Likely Republican voters in Iowa see Mr. Trump as “able to beat Joe Biden” more than Mr. DeSantis despite that advertising onslaught, according to a separate Times/Siena College Iowa poll. But the margin is far smaller than in the national poll, and a larger share of Iowa Republicans say they would prioritize a candidate who could win.
   
   Mr. DeSantis’s improved standing in the state when it comes to electability is heavily shaped by the views of college-educated Republicans. Among that group, Mr. DeSantis is seen as better able to beat Mr. Biden by a 14-point margin compared with Mr. Trump.
   
   Mr. DeSantis faces his own electability headwinds. Some of those same party insiders who are worried about Mr. Trump topping the ticket have expressed concerns that the hard-line stances the governor has taken — especially signing a six-week abortion ban — could repel independent voters.
   
   Mr. Danowsky, the financial consultant who was at the bar in downtown Des Moines, worried that Mr. DeSantis was “a little extreme,” including on transgender rights.
   
   But more Iowa Republicans volunteered concerns about Mr. Trump’s viability as the top reason to move on from him, even as they saw Mr. Biden as weak.
   
   “I might be one out of 1,000, but I don’t think he can beat Biden,” Mike Farwell, 66, a retired construction worker in Indianola, said of Mr. Trump. He added that Mr. Biden “would be an easy president right now to beat” if he faced a strong enough opponent.
   
   Don Beebout, 74, a retiree who lives in Chariton and manages a farm, was worried about Mr. Trump as the party nominee as he waited to hear Mr. DeSantis speak at the state fair. But he also was not sold on any particular alternative.
   
   “He may be easy to beat,” he said of Mr. Biden, “if we get the right candidate.”
   New York Times    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/20/us/p … html"
   
   Your thoughts?

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      Kathleen Cochranposted 8 months agoin reply to this

      "For months, Republican voters have consumed such a steady diet of clips of Mr. Biden stumbling, over words and sandbags, that they now see the 80-year-old Democratic incumbent as so frail that he would be beatable by practically any Republican — even a four-times-indicted former president who lost the last election."
      
      Because that's all they are watching for.

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         Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

         Kathleen
         
         "Because that's all they are watching for."
         
         Short on words, but really relevant. Are many Americans only picking up on the worst, and due to our split society more than willing to settle for only the negative? Is grabbing the negative more common than looking for the positive?
         
         Could some just be concentrating on what they see as negative developments in their own lives, like financial problems, or disagreeing with possible negatives that might be occurring in their communities, such as crime, homeless, and the influx of immigrants?  Are some just willing to place all the blame on Biden?

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   Valeantposted 8 months ago

   The GOP media was pushing the idea of Republican strength in the 2022 midterms as well and ignoring the clear danger signs to the party's candidates.  Their answer - hedge until a frontrunner emerges and then double down on whoever emerges. 
   
   Unfortunately for them, it's one that is pushing the same false narratives that got them defeated in 2020 and 2022.  Everyone knows Trump exaggerates his own accomplishments and changes the timeline of his failures to omit them.
   
   Add to that that he has taken credit for ending the idea of women's body autonomy.  Add to that that he organized and incited a domestic terror attack on his own Capitol because the country chose someone else in 2020, and it's going to be a bloodbath as the number of never-Trumpers in the right has only grown and not gotten smaller since 2020.
   
   The left has gotten exactly what we wanted from Biden - someone who stays out of the limelight and does not embarrass the country daily with his latest stupid comment.  Someone who steered the country through the recovery from Covid without a lot of drama.  Someone who doesn't capitulate to murderous dictators.  We will see if enough independents buy into that thinking.
   
   But if the motivating factors from 2020 are still the thinking today based on having the same two candidates, both have a few more negatives - but which candidate's negatives are worse?  Biden being painted by the right as corrupt - without the proof to make the case for those claims.  Or Trump who has admitted to ending body autonomy and has been indicted by citizens of this country for his actual corruption?
   
   Non-MAGA Americans can easily answer those questions and it's not going to be pretty for the GOP.

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      Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

      "But if the motivating factors from 2020 are still the thinking today based on having the same two candidates, both have a few more negatives - but which candidate's negatives are worse?  Biden being painted by the right as corrupt - without the proof to make the case for those claims.  Or Trump who has admitted to ending body autonomy and has been indicted by citizens of this country for his actual corruption?
      
      Non-MAGA Americans can easily answer those questions and it's not going to be pretty for the GOP."
      
      While I we agree it's true that 2020 brought forth strong motivating factors, it's important to consider that the current situation isn't a simple repetition of the past.  While both candidates have their share of negatives, the focus should be on evaluating the actual impact of their actions and policies rather than solely dwelling on the allegations made against them.
      
      Regarding Biden, it's important to acknowledge that concerns about corruption aren't solely a product of right-wing narratives. People across the political spectrum have raised questions about Joe, and his family's business dealings and potential conflicts of interest. While concrete proof might be lacking, it's valid to be cautious about potential ethical concerns that could arise from his past associations.
      
      On the other hand, scrutinizing Trump's actions shouldn't just focus on his admission to certain policy decisions, like those concerning body autonomy. It's worth examining the broader context and consequences of these decisions. Additionally, while he might have faced legal challenges and accusations of corruption, it's also crucial to consider the outcomes of any investigations and whether those accusations were substantiated in a court of law.
      
      So, any debate surrounding the negatives of the candidates perhaps should emphasize the importance of evaluating actions, policies, and outcomes over allegations and narratives. Plus, who in the world knows what's ahead that could work to turn everything we now think on its head? Just my view.

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         Valeantposted 8 months agoin reply to this

         Valid and well-reasoned.
         
         I think Trump's supporters have to lean into policy because that is the only saving grace.  But even then, he is not immune. 
         
         While his supporters feel positive about his Covid response, as you have pointed out numerous times in these forums, there are so many others that saw it as a disaster.  His foreign policy was a show of subservience to Russia, Turkey and North Korea.  He does get good marks for the economy, even I was pretty satisfied, pre-covid, with the outcomes.  But 2019 set new records for border crossings and his policy to violate the human rights of children just put his cruelty on display.  And the thing that the right wants to ding Joe Biden on, inflation, was caused as much by letting covid turn into a global issue than by Biden's actions.
         
         The left can see some positives of the Biden agenda - from building infrastructure and manufacturing, to protecting seniors and veterans, to rebuilding the alliances that Trump neglected while cozying up to the murderous dictators that he aspires to join.
         
         But here is where the right still does not have an answer.  Their messaging about body autonomy is another disaster.  And the party is doubling-down on the anti-democracy message by nominating Trump - something the vast majority of democrats and about two-thirds of independents find absolutely deplorable - which those two groups made clear in 2022 when pretty much all 'big lie' candidates went down in flames in the swing states.  Unfortunately for the right, the lesson was not learned and will need to be given again by those of us who support the Constitution over a lying grifter like Trump.

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            Sharlee01posted 8 months agoin reply to this

            The idea that Trump's supporters should lean into policy as a saving grace is reasonable. no argument here.  I think focusing on policy allows for a significant evaluation of a leader's impact on various aspects of governance.  However, the effectiveness of policies and their impacts can be a matter of interpretation and political bias.
            
            The assessment of Trump's COVID-19 response as positive by his supporters and negative by others indicates the polarization surrounding his administration.  While some argue that his administration's efforts led to the rapid development of vaccines, we have others criticize his initial handling of the pandemic and are very dissatisfied with how he handled the pandemic.
            
            The claim that Trump's foreign policy demonstrated subservience to certain countries like Russia, Turkey, and North Korea can surely be debated. Supporters could argue that his administration pursued a realist approach to international relations, while critics might perceive it as compromising American interests.
            
            The acknowledgment of Trump's positive economic outcomes before the pandemic aligns with commonly cited economic indicators.   Yet, the extent to which a president can claim sole credit for economic performance is a complex issue, also often influenced by global economic trends. Assigning blame for inflation to COVID's global impact versus Biden's actions is a nuanced matter. Economic factors are multifaceted and can rarely be attributed solely to one factor.
            
            I can acknowledge positive aspects of Biden's agenda, such as infrastructure and alliances, demonstrate a fair evaluation of policy goals. However, the success of these initiatives and their long-term impacts remain to be seen.
            
            The claim that the right's messaging on body autonomy is a disaster suggests a disagreement with certain conservative viewpoints, likely related to issues like reproductive rights and bodily autonomy.
            In my perspective, the border matter holds no potential for progress. Several of our urban centers are grappling with an excessive influx of migrants. A severe humanitarian crisis of unprecedented magnitude is unfolding, surpassing any previous instances in our history. The influx of illegal drugs has reached an all-time high, and an alarming number of unaccompanied children are being abandoned at the border. The count of migrants seeking entry at the southern border has surpassed the 5 million mark.
            
            The debate around Trump's nomination and the perception of anti-democracy messaging is highly polarized. Supporters view him as a strong leader, while critics argue his rhetoric and actions undermine democratic institutions.
            
            The assertion that the right did not learn from the 2022 election results raises questions about the interpretation of those results and the overall direction of the party.
            
            My final point underscores a fundamental ideological divide, where some view Trump's actions as harmful to democratic values. In contrast, others perceive him as a champion of their beliefs.

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               Kathleen Cochranposted 8 months agoin reply to this

               "The Deloitte European Chief Financial Officers Survey reveals that the invasion of Ukraine has delivered a sharp shock to business sentiment which had previously been recovering as lockdown measures from the COVID-19 pandemic were lifted. CFOs now report a record level of risk, stemming from geopolitics and inflation. "
               
               Whose fault is the invasion of Ukraine? Would Putin have done it if Trump had been re-elected? Would he have had less reason or more?
               
               Those questions aside, most encomiasts I've read lay the blame for worldwide inflation on Putin.

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   Valeantposted 8 months ago

   On the flip side to this original question...how does a Trump conviction help Biden in the polls?
   Here is one survey:
   
   https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-trump-c … 51983.html
   
   'Asking registered voters who they would vote for in next year’s general election “if Trump is convicted of a serious crime” produces a similar (though smaller) shift. In that case, support for President Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, holds steady at 47%. But support for Trump falls by 3 points, from 41% to 38%, while the overall number of voters who say they're not sure (9%) or that they would not vote (6%) increases by 3 points.  That gives Biden a 9-point lead.'

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