How much will he lose by this time?

1. 71

   Kathleen Cochranposted 23 months ago

   First time he lost by three million votes.
   Second time he lost by seven million votes.
   This time will he lose by fifteen million votes? The percentage increase would be consistent with his other losses. What do you think?

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   1. 83

      Sharlee01posted 23 months agoin reply to this

      In my opinion, it is far too early to make any predictions about the outcome of the 2024 election, and attempting to do so at this stage appears to be imprudent. Speculating about the result of the election based on current circumstances can be misleading. Just a week ago, an ABC/WAPO poll indicated that Trump was, and possibly still is, ahead of Biden by 10 points. However, jumping to conclusions that the race is over and Biden is certain to lose would be premature and unwise.
      
      At this point in time, the only data we have to rely on are polls, and it's worth noting that Biden's approval ratings on various issues have been particularly unfavorable. Therefore, in my view, it is wise to withhold any predictions about the winner and acknowledge the uncertainty of what lies ahead.  Both Biden and Trump have their challenges and obstacles to overcome, making it essential to continue monitoring the polls to gain insight into the sentiments and preferences of the American people. Only by considering these factors can we get a clearer picture of which candidate has the stronger appeal to voters.

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      1. 72

         tsmogposted 23 months agoin reply to this

         True!
         
         One thing to bear in mind polling between candidates determines popularity. By that I mean, yes, in 2016 Hillary was running away in the polls. It proved true. She had the popular vote by about 3 million when all was said and done.
         
         But, and that is a big but, polling does not indicate the electoral college vote outcome as we saw with Trump and George W. Bush, too.

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         1. 71

            Ken Burgessposted 23 months agoin reply to this

            It is convenient for Democrats to forget that the reason for the electoral procedure is so that ALL States have fair representation.
            
            We are a REPUBLIC of United States... not a Democracy.
            
            The fact that in California Clinton and then Biden defeated Trump by millions of votes does not mean that the rest of the USA should be stuck doing what Californians want.
            
            Trump wins the popular vote in both elections if you subtract CA.
            
            Do we really want the high taxation, extremes of rich and poor, the hundreds of thousands of homeless, the millions of undocumented migrants, the city streets littered with feces and drug paraphernalia?
            
            Middle Class Americans are fleeing from California by the hundreds of thousands every year now... so I'm not sure allowing CA to dictate the Nation's course is the way to go.
            
            If we were a small nation like Switzerland, a true Democracy might be the way to go.  The closer America gets to a true Democracy, the worse our problems will become.  Small states would soon be awash in regulations and laws that make no sense for their situation, and would be subject to the whims of larger states that would eventually abuse their power over them.

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            1. 72

               tsmogposted 23 months agoin reply to this

               ahhh . . . alas, California is a state in the U.S. No getting around that. So, what is happening with the GOP in California? They are not sitting around drinking coffee brainstorming about this and that. They are actually doing something while some say, "Finally".
               
               Why California Republicans are facing a moment of truth found at CalMatters (Sept 28, 2023)
               https://calmatters.org/politics/2023/09 … tion-2023/
               
               One of many elements that caught my attention is: "There is one departure from Trump orthodoxy the party is willing to make this year — encouraging Republican voters to take advantage of California’s mail balloting system."

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            2. 76

               wildernessposted 23 months agoin reply to this

               "Small states would soon be awash in regulations and laws that make no sense for their situation, and would be subject to the whims of larger states that would eventually abuse their power over them."
               
               I would disagree only with this paragraph.  Small (or lightly populated) states would not eventually be subject to the whims of larger states: it would happen within weeks.  Probably with the first piece of legislation passed by Congress.
               
               Other than that, you have hit the nail squarely on the head.

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         2. 83

            Sharlee01posted 23 months agoin reply to this

            Indeed, that's absolutely accurate. Polling often struggles to accurately forecast voter turnout and primarily reflects the sentiment prevailing on a specific day. It's fascinating how these two variables can offer insight into our society in their own unique way.
            
            It's intriguing to observe how these two factors provide distinctive insights into our society. In a sense, it does raise questions about the vitality of our nation's democratic voting experiment, suggesting that it may be nearing its conclusion. Just not working as it did in our past history. Has the great experiment come to an end?

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