Closing polling numbers & forecasts Trump vs. Harris - Nov 4
Update Nov 4 2024 at 10:50 pm ET from NBC News Decision 2024 Early Vote and Mail-in ballots. See what is happening nationally and by state
The polling experts indicate a neck to neck race within the margin of error of recent polls. Two of them forecast Trump to win the electoral college, one Harris will win the electoral college, and the last of four expert websites is cautionary.
77,302,480 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally. That is 45.9% of registered voters.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e … early-vote
Table of mail-in and early in-person votes by battleground/swing states using Nate Silver's guide for the states.
Breakdown of national data
Republicans = 39%
Democrats = 21%
Other = 20%
Age
65+ = 40%
50 - 64 = 27%
40 - 49 = 13%
30 - 39 = 11%
18 - 9 = 9%
Women = 53%
Men = 44%
Unknown = 3%
In-person = 56%
Mail-in = 44%
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What do the expert poll analyzers say . . .
Nate Silver's the Bulletin / Update Nov 4
"Last update: 11:30 a.m., Monday, November 4. Lots of mediocre pollsters herding today — but amidst the noise, the model liked this update for Kamala Harris. I’m guessing it’s mostly because of this set of YouGov polls, which were good for Harris and from one of the more highly-rated pollsters to release data since our last update.
Harris is in the strongest position in our forecast since Oct. 18. Obviously, it’s a toss-up, and you shouldn’t care too much about whether the final forecast is 51/49 one way or the other, but it remains genuinely uncertain who will have the nominal lead in our final model run, which is scheduled to post at around 12:30 a.m. tonight. There’s also an outside chance of an interim update before then; we’ll play it by ear."
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FiveThirtyEight (538)
Polling Average / UPDATED Nov. 4, 2024, at 10:29 PM
Trump = 46.8%
Harris = 48.1%
Forecast
Trump wins 52 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Harris wins 48 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Electoral Count
Trump = 271
Harris = 267
Polling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po … /national/
Recent Polls ending today
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Election Forecast
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 … -forecast/
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The Hill 2024 Election Decision Desk HQ
Polling average / Update Tue, Nov 5, 12:17 AM EST
Trump = 48.4%
Harris = 48.4%
Forecast
Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 53% chance of winning the Presidency.
Electoral College
Trump = 275
Harris = 263
Polls / recent ending 11/04
https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio … p-general/
Election Forecast
https://elections2024.thehill.com/forec … president/
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Race to the WH by Logan Phillips / Last Updated on Nov 4, 3:35 PM ET
Polling average
Trump = 47.4%
Harris = 48.8%
Forecast / Chance to win
Trump = 49.4%
Harris = 50.4%
Electoral College
Trump = 262.6
Harris = 275.4
Polls recent ending Nov 4
https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls
Election Forecast
https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast published at Nate Silver's The Silver Bulletin (Nov 5, 2024)
So fine: let's go to the tiebreaker round.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-n … determined
"When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating.
At exactly midnight on Tuesday, I pressed the “go” button for the final time on our election model this year. I knew it was going to be close. I felt like I was spinning a roulette wheel. (Appropriate, I guess, in a year when I published a book about gambling.) We’d decided ahead of time to run 80,000 simulations instead of our usual 40K.
And after 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in … 40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent. The remaining 39,988 were split between Trump (39,718) and no majority — a 269-269 tie — which practically speaking would probably be resolved for Trump in the U.S. House.
The bottom line . . .
Win probability
Trump = 49.6%
Harris = 50%
Electoral College
Trump = 267
Harris = 271
Popular vote
Trump = 48.4%
Harris = 50.5%Early exit poll data:
. . . a tip of the hat to Mr. Trump and offering congratulations!
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