The news reports earlier said many votes in Florida had been cast before the odd events of the past few days. Plus, we still have primaries in blockbuster states ahead of us - New York, California, Texas and other states have more delegate votes at stake than the primaries we've seen so far. This is a very odd Primary year - it started out way early and has had a marathon series of debates.
The Iowa flip-flop is puzzling. The night of the vote, it was made clear there were no recounts in Iowa Caucus voting. of course, they had the rather entertaining Carolyn & Edith thing going on.
but still the number of "early ballot" votes is a small percentage overall
They need to scrap Iowa...they always pick a loser and it never sets the tone for the primary. The caucus system is so antiquated...they need to go to a straight primary. Keep in mind folks..that only 4 to 7% of Republican voters even vote in primaries...usually it is the activists that show up. The final outcome is never representative of the party--John McCain is an example of this. He never broke through the conservative right wing of the party. That's why he pick Palin...she saved his campaign by appealing to the right wing conservatives that abandoned him.
To be more direct in answering - no, I don't think he's out yet. But the roller coaster ride the GOP has taken since the Fall means nobody can predict the next surprise.
I noticed the same thing - best I can figure is that they make predictions based on the demographics of the precincts that reported early, the results of early voting, and analysis of exit polls. (I just noticed typos in my earlier comments - I should avoid doing this on a mobile device. Sigh.)
I think it is too early to count anyone out. These four contenders seem to be holding on to the bitter end. So, to answer your question, I do not think Mitt is out but I think Florida will be an interesting ride.
Paul says he is in till the end but to what end? A third party run would be more to his liking...if he gets enough delegates as a candidate for the GOP, he could use the delegates as leverage to include some of his talking points in the platform. In brokered conventions of the past, candidates use delegates as leverage to get party positions, congressional appointments, platform statements or even use them to bully their way to the VP spot. I don't think Paul will get enough to leverage, unless Santorum drops out and maybe he will pick up his delegates but most likely they will go to Newt by default. Paul's delegates are too committed to him to go anywhere.
Mitt Romney is damaged from the South Carolina loss. It certainly shows that in the general election, he will have trouble getting traction in more conservative states (he will win them, but will he get big margins?). But as far as the Republican nomination goes, the math is still on Romney's side to win. So far, not a single moderate state has voted. Once they do, Romney might start running the board and lock up the nomination. But Gingrich is keeping it interesting.
Gingrich's big win in South Carolina is a game changer, but it's way too early to count Romney out.
There is yet to see what happens when his tax returns are made public. Of course he doesn't want the public to see that he is a greedy, rich vulture capitalist.
However, Gingrich's win leads to a strong indication that he would win in Florida and Georgia. I think Romney will go thru a dry spell for the next three primaries before winning anything of significance. He is weak in the South...which is Gingrich's stronghold due to his right wing viewpoints as he appeases the Tea Party. However, keep in mind he will switch positions, like Romney would, to pander to voters in each state.
I am reminded of the saying that "You can't keep a good man down!" There is a lot of fight in the old boy yet. And remember similar to what another pundit once quipped: Obama is no Ted Kennedy.
I don't agree that he is greedy or a vulture. Our country was founded on principles such as capitalism (which basically means we have the right to own a business or earn our own money, such as we writers do). I do think, in the environment of the current economy, any rich person risks being bashed by those who are struggling. Many 'rich' people have let down society. I don't think he is one of them, nor do I think he's hiding anything. I wouldn't want to share my tax returns, either - they're my personal business.
Obama may not be a Ted Kennedy but he is closer to a Ted Kennedy than any GOP candidate running for office or not running for office. I would say Romney and Newt can claim they are closer to Nixon and Spiro Agnew.
Politics just as law is based on precedents or what has happened before except if a change in policies is needed. The precedent is that every presidential hopeful who won the South Carolina primaries has went on to earn the party's nomination for the presidential bid. Newt Gingrich won in South Carolina but the Republicans are not too keen on Gingrich because of his private marital affairs.
The Republicans are not keen on Mitt Romney either because they think that his health care plan is similar to President Obama. The good thing about Massachusetts of which Romney is governor is that its citizens should be proud to have almost 98 per cent of its inhabitants on a health care plan.
The Republicans think that the only one who could have raffle with Obama would have been Huntsman who bowed out and gave endorsements to one of the other candidates.
I think that Newt Gingrich as a former Speaker of the House would be the Republican's best bet to run against Obama. The whole Republican's bid for the presidency is akin to a circus with Herman Cain and his mistresses and Santorum and his vests so I suppose it is now a guessing game about who gets the Republican nomination.
Again, I think that Newt Gingrich having won the South Carolina's primaries got the best chance to get that sought after Republican nomination for presidency.
Keep in mind that Newt did not make the ballot in Virginia...which means Mitt will be almost assured of those delegates and has the money to go to the end. I think Santorum and Paul will most assuredly drop out after Florida--since campaigning there is extremely expensive and they will be tapped out to even compete. It will be a two horse race after Florida.
Unless we get a late entrant .... a draft Jeb Bush movement??
Even Jeb would not draft Jeb. Jeb is also a weak candidate due to his namesake. Like they say..."walk away...there is nothing to see here".
I think I heard that Newt didn't get on the ballot in MO, either. If Newt gets the GOP nod, we'll get 4 more years of Obama, and actually, I think BO is a safer choice than Newt.
Mitt is releasing his tax returns on Tuesday, so we'll see what that shows. As long as he didn't go anything illegal, I really don't care how much money he has or what he does with it.
He did not get on the ballot in Missouri, Ohio and Virginia. The bad news for Newt is that Missouri's non binding primary will be on 2/7/2012...so he will have to clinch before then--thus stopping the Gingrich steam roller. Plus the number of delegates up for grabs in Virginia is 49...of which he will get zero. He needs 1144 to clinch the nomination and prevent a brokered convention. Newt is behind the 8 ball...so for all of you who were pulling for Newt...his chances are not good that he can win since he will be not be on the ballot of three states thus missing out on 167 delegates in all three states.
I do. He off-shores his money in the Cayman Islands to avoid US taxes. To me, that is totally un-American.
Not patriotic at all!
You need to read up on this, LMC. Did you know that many folks' pension funds are invested offshore - including the largest public pension fund in the U.S.? Most of Mitt's offshore money is in an IRA, and when he withdraws it, he'll have to pay 35% on it. If he followed the law, he shouldn't be excoriated for following our tax laws. Do the laws need to be changed? Yes!
Well, that's nice for him. And will he advocate changing the laws? Getting rid of loop-holes his set can take advantage of? No--he won't.
He won't do that, and in fact, will give them MORE free-bee's.
Which he will get by cutting from those really struggling. This is the legacy he left in Massachusetts...and the reason he had his people destroy his records, IMO.
He is a complete 1%, and governs for them. Them, and Bibi Netanyahu.
Anyone But Obama, the ABO's. God Help Us.
Actually, he could easily win
States don't apportion delegates according to "winner takes all", they do it by vote.
In caucus states, Ron Paul has an EASY chance of winning the vast majority of delegates.
Also, California & New York consist of about 23% of what is needed to win, and they are open primary/caucus states that are largely democratic. Now that Huntsman is out, they will likely go towards Paul
Also, now that Perry gave up, Paul is the only candidate from Texas, another 12%.
IF you think that Mitt is done, then you don't understand how a primary system works.
Mitt will beat Newt and then lose to Barrack.
The fact that he can't beat Newt just shows that he doesnt have the conservative base.
Mitt is 'Obama light', and that isnt going to win the Oval Office unless the economy take another MAJOR downturn.
In other news... New England will win the Superbowl and Snooki will get married this year
Mitt is nothing like Obama, IMO. He wants to overturn Roe v Wade, and give himself another big tax break.
Obama wants the tax breaks to go to those less fortunate,
and he supports a woman's right to choose her own destiny.
Polar opposites. If you aks me (s/o to Russshhhhh)
Want's the Cayman Islands the place that Newt took his girlfriends to during his marriages?
Hey! That's a lie! He said so. Besides, "character" doesn't matter anymore.
Cheating on your wife, and being a "draft-dodger" is de-riguer now.
And Newt is the one who drafted that memo to "say no to anything Obama", no matter who gets hurt...he does not deserve the position of POTUS.
LOTUS, ok. Lame-O Of The Underworld Set.
So will Mitt's tax disclosure "finish" the job Newt started in South Carolina?
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