Is gambling a science or is it simply a bit of fun? Harris vs. Trump?

  1. tsmog profile image86
    tsmogposted 4 months ago

    Odds Of Trump Winning 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump, Harris Tied With 1 Month To Go published at Covers betting news (Oct 7, 2024)
    After trailing for most of September, Donald Trump (-110) is in a dead heat with Kamala Harris (-110) at major sportsbooks as the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch.
    https://www.covers.com/politics/trump-presidential-odds

    Trump = -110 or implied probability is 52.4%
    Harris = -110 or implied probability is 52.4%

    In other words, it is a dead heat according to the odds makers in Las Vegas with 29 days to Nov 6th when all votes through the 5th have concluded at the polls and postal date on mail-in ballots are finalized.

    What will occur to change the outcome? Will votes be gained or will votes be lost? The past is now the null set and the future is before us. It is speculated around 18% of voters have not made up their mind as how to vote yet.

    Will they vote on an emotional impulse such as anger or fear? Will that causal event happen on the day they vote, a recent memory, or a hidden one lurking in the shadows of some elation or painful moments?

    Will someone in their social circle make the final choice for them?

    Okay, we know what the odds makers are saying. What about the poll watchers? Nate Silver the founder of fivethirtyeight (538) in his most recent news letter the Silver Bulletin puts it at 55/45.

    "However, on average, since our forecast relaunch on July 30, Harris has won 49.4 percent of simulations, and Trump has won 50.2 percent. (These don’t quite add up to 100 because of the slim possibility of a 269-269 Electoral College tie.) People understand intuitively that a 50/50 or 49/51 forecast is a toss-up.

    If the forecast is 55/45 in some direction instead, however, confusion can abound — even though this isn’t any different from 50/50 for most practical purposes. Some of the problem is that people can confuse this forecast for a prediction of vote share: if Harris were to win 55 percent of the vote and Trump 45 percent, that would be the biggest landslide in an American election since Ronald Reagan in 1984. But that’s not what this forecast is saying. Rather, it’s that Harris will win the Electoral College about 11 times out of 20 and Trump will win it 9 times out of 20: still basically a toss-up, just with the coin weighted ever so slightly in Harris’s favor."

    Silver Bulletin / 55/45 is a really close race by Nate Silver (Oct 8, 2024)
    Life lessons from gambling about understanding election probabilities.
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/5545-is-a- … close-race

    An interesting article doing a deep dive into the probability of uncertainty while we each bank on hopes for tomorrow. Do we spend the tax savings from Trump's economic model? How many hamburgers meals will it buy while the top 1% go on a luxury vacation? Or, is that BS? How will our kids pay for the plan in 2034 or 2050?

    Or, is it other issues at stake for those 18% of undecided voters? Tick-tock, tick-tock . . .

    "Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating"

    ~ Karl Von Clausewitz

 
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