Aussies: Warning 44% increase in housing inventory

1. 62

   bgamallposted 14 years ago

   This is a serious problem and if you are counting on your house for retirement nest egg in the land down under this is likely the peak: http://www.businessinsider.com/australi … ble-2011-1
   
   I urge you to realize that the housing shortage in australia is a myth and you can always tell this from inventory growth. Demand destruction causes inventory growth.

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2. 0

   ryankettposted 14 years ago

   Almost every property market in the world has seen falling demand though, there are other external factors involved in demand for Australian housing. It is a natural occurance during tough economic times, property prices have fallen in the UK, USA, all of Europe, Canada, almost every developed nation. The restriction on demand is the limits to bank lending. You should also consider immigration figures, over 1 million British people live in Australia, over 20000 more per year emigrate there. In order to gain a permament residency visa they must hold a certain amount of cash, cant remember how much it is but it is a six figure sum and enough to buy a small home. With the current exchange rates pushing down the value of the pound, and UK property market deflated, there will be plenty of Brits waiting to find the money to move out there. Just ask people in Perth what mature British expats do to property prices!

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      CMHypnoposted 14 years agoin reply to this

      Yes but the trouble is that Australian property prices are inflated while those in the UK have dipped and the exchange rate is not great for Brits anymore - I think that people in the UK planning to emigrate think that they are going to move into a big house in Australia near the beach and with a pool and then are disappointed to find out that in this economic climate that they cannot afford it

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         ryankettposted 14 years agoin reply to this

         To be honest, I think that most place a few other factors above house size, such as:
         
         a) weather
         b) weather
         c) happier people
         d) clean seas
         e) lots of women in bikinis
         f) proximity to other great places
         g) weather
         h) did i mention the weather?
         
         It has long been the case that average British people would not be gaining much in terms of property size, perhaps an extra bedroom and a bigger garden. Your point is very valid though, and was the point that I was trying to make. British property prices have fallen significantly, Australian property prices haven't. Either the value of British property needs to rise again, or Australian property needs to fall, in order for it to be viable for British people to start a new life down under and maintain a decent living standard. I am sure that they could, if they sacrificed that extra bedroom, but who wants to take a sideways step on the property market? Not many people, retirees perhaps.
         
         Are you from Australia? How do people in Australia feel about the mass influx of British people? Does it annoy them? Or do you welcome them? I know that friends of mine who moved to New Zealand were made to feel welcome, although they also made it clear that work was available in abundance. I have witnessed at first hand how the more simple minded amongst our communities turn on anybody with a non-native accent as soon as jobs become scarce.
         
         Personally I don't see the attraction, I want to immigrate myself at some stage but my order of personal preference would be:
         
         1) United States*
         2) New Zealand
         3) Canada**
         4) Australia
         
         *To be more specific, I would want to live in New York, Nevada, or California. Preferably on a working visa, I don't want a Green card, you can give those to refugees.
         
         **I love Canada, but I am not a huge fan of mammoth snow fall. I would choose city apartment living if I ever moved there, the idea of having to snow plough my way out of the drive doesn't inspire me all that much.
         
         If I was committed enough to learn a language, I would move to Italy, France or Spain tomorrow. Only I am not, it is a pet hate of mine to encounter people who live in the UK and make no attempt to learn the language. Therefore, it would be hypocritical of me to do the same. I know that many Spanish and French people are unhappy with the influx of British, I can't blame them really, we are often unwilling to embrace other cultures. I don't blame the British for wanting to get out either, this great empire has crumbled, if a ship is sinking you jump. I love British people, I am proud to be British, but I don't particularly enjoy living in the UK anymore.
         
         Sorry for the tangent.

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            CMHypnoposted 14 years agoin reply to this

            I used to visit a friend on the Costa del Sol who lived there - she had learned the language and deliberately bought an apartment in a Spanish block to integrate with the local Spanish community, but most of the ex-pat Brit population hadn't bothered to learn Spanish, hung out in British bars, had opened a British shop and had even started a local newspaper in English. So any hostility from the locals is totally understandable.
            
            If you want to emigrate though Ryan, do it while you are young, as it gets harder as you get older.  At my age, you are definitely not wanted down under (unless you have pots of cash of course LOL!)

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         2. 75

            Aficionadaposted 14 years agoin reply to this

            
            
            WOW, the things we don't know about other parts of the world!  I was stunned by this.  Is it really just a sign of the times?  I know a lot of Americans are not too happy with the US right now.  (Their attitude about the USA pretty much perfectly mirrors yours about the UK.)  We hope that's not permanent, but you never know.  Maybe you need to move here and help change things?

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   2. 72

      Kangaroo_Jaseposted 14 years agoin reply to this

      137,000 people was last years immigration intake nationally and I think its over $300,000 for Brits to emigrate here now Ryan.
      
      We are on that usual fine line between mortgage repayments and the Reserve Bank hiking up interest rates, since the country has enjoyed about a 12-13 year growth in property prices, the bubble is soon about to bust in the next year or two (once more interest rises occur). Housing shortage? Going to be a flood of properties in 2012, 2013.

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3. 55

   ftclickposted 14 years ago

   the housing inventory will be a double dip in Australia.

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4. 66

   Abbasangelposted 14 years ago

   I think that is the top end of the market and that people have gone in to massive houses and massive mortgages with little leway and every interest rate hike --- another predicted.. is crushing people who have over commited themselves.
   
   Alot of people aren't confident to buy houses either as more and more employers are employer on part time basis and houses in the metropolitan areas well out of reach of the "average" income.

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5. 63

   Wayne Orvisburgposted 14 years ago

   Who all here, is from Australia? I have visited a few times and absolutely love it! Would like to relocate, but immigration seems tough and I have no funds. LOL

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6. 62

   bgamallposted 14 years ago

   I appreciate you Aussies posting great information about the bubblicious nature of the Aussie housing market. Houses can stay priced too high much longer than people can imagine. But it all depends upon rents and income and if the house price gets too out of whack, way above 3-4 times yearly income, then there can be a crash.

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7. 58

   dablufoxposted 14 years ago

   The property market is a racket!
   
   Real Estate Agents
   Local Government
   State Government
   Federal Government
   
   They all have a vested interest in inflating and manipulating the market.
   
   But alas you can't fight gravity, what goes up must come down and there will be much carnage very soon.
   
   I hate it when I read articles in newspapers like The Australian that say the housing market is gathering its second win, what crap! You look at the bottom of the article and it was written by the owner of Toop & Toop or some other prominent rip off merchant and shiester of a real estate agent.
   
   The concept of Realtors 'charge what the market will bear' is not only unethical but also unsustainable.
   
   Soon I see technology catching up with these freeloaders and they will end up pricing themselves out of the market.
   
   You know when a crash or a crash of sorts is imminent when the big property players stop developing and buying properties and start selling seminars on how to get rich in the property market! They know what's coming!
   
   Bring on the crash I say!

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