Polls, Polls, Polls! We all read them. How to read them?

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   tsmogposted 5 weeks ago

   I have to admit being a data freak in a sense I love polls especially compare/contrast one with another and over time seeking a trend. There importance grow exponentially during election cycles and become a popular goto by media to spread this or that about who knows what. But, do you know how to read them?
   
   On August 27, 2024 Time (online) Magazine published;
   
   How to Read Political Polls Like a Pro (10 minute read)
   https://time.com/7012220/how-read-polit … ike-a-pro/
   
   "No poll is predictive. Every single one of them is a measure of a specific window inside a specific space. No one wins—or loses—based on the polls, and it’s often irresponsible to say that someone is winning in the polls. It’s trite, but when strategists say the only poll that matters is the one taken on Election Day, they’re not wrong."
   
   A hop-skip-jump arrives . . .
   
   "Reading the polls can be tricky if you don’t know what you’re doing. On its own, a single survey does not really describe anything more about the race than how one group of selected voters responded to one set of questions during a moment in time. Taken en masse—and there are pollsters out there who will scream Don’t Do It!—the numbers can offer a framework for a race, especially for donors who want a clear return-on-investment proof point. (Indeed, when donors began trying to force Joe Biden to step aside after his disastrous June debate, many were responding more to polling dashboards from Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight than their own concerns about what happened on that debate stage.)"
   
   Importantly the concluding paragraph is . . .
   
   "That said, plenty of us do look at so-called polls of polls. But like all opinion surveys, it’s helpful to remember that they should never be taken as predictive and that they’re already out-of-date by the time the data are released.
   
   Did the article offer anything of value if you read or skimmed here and there?
   
   Thoughts, criticisms, accolades, and/or commentary?

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      Kathryn L Hillposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

      Well, there you go.
      "... it’s trite, but when strategists say the only poll that matters is the one taken on Election Day, they’re not wrong."
      
      Thank You.
      
      But what about those of you who are data freaks?
      Will you still be tempted to look at poll numbers?
      Its okay. A small indulgence once in a while is okay.

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         tsmogposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

         "But what about those of you who are data freaks?"
         
         Who is the 'you' being referred to? Me? I don't understand that question on a personal level. What are you asking for? My autobiography, my resume, or an opinion or view on something?
         
         "Will you still be tempted to look at poll numbers??
         
         Absolutely!! Learning is fun, fun, fun as well as applying what is learned.
         
         "Its okay. A small indulgence once in a while is okay."
         
         Though I damn well don't need or have to have 'your' permission, I appreciate you giving it.
         
         [Edit/Note] The reason for posting the article is the majority of forum participants in this forum do pay attention to polls. So, discovering an article about how to read them is meant as offering a learning opportunity if so desired.

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            Kathryn L Hillposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

            I was just trying to be funny.
            Not hurting "your" feelings since "you" admitted being a data freak.
            I know, I have a weird sense of humor.
            

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               tsmogposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

               

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   Kathleen Cochranposted 5 weeks ago

   Polls have sometimes proved to be completely wrong. They are interesting and thanks for the information. But the only absolute is the results on election day.

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      tsmogposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

      Yes, you are right in regards to elections. The final poll is the election results affecting not only politics, but the direction of a community while definition for community is yours to decide.

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   Sharlee01posted 5 weeks ago

   Interesting Thread, food for thought.
   
   Tim,    Polls are widely used for gauging public opinion on various topics, they do perhaps offer a snapshot of what a group of people thinks at a particular time.   One of the main advantages of polls is that they provide valuable insights into current public sentiment.  But can change quickly as the wind blows. Additionally, polls can foster engagement by giving people a sense that their opinions are being heard and considered.
   
   However, polls also have some drawbacks. One major concern is the potential for bias in the way questions are phrased, the sample is selected, or the method of data collection, all of which can skew results. For instance, poorly worded questions or unrepresentative samples can lead to misleading outcomes that do not accurately reflect the broader population's views.  In my view,  polls are often susceptible to manipulation, where results can be used to push specific agendas rather than genuinely reflect public opinion. Finally, over-reliance on polls can create a false sense of certainty about complex issues and discourage deeper exploration and discussion.

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      tsmogposted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

      Great perspective! Thanks for contributing it. Noted!

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   Venkatachari Mposted 5 weeks ago

   Sharlee, I admire your analysis of the weak points and the minus points in poll surveys. I agree with you that polls do not project the correct picture even though they are good for collecting the waves and moods of people.

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      Sharlee01posted 5 weeks agoin reply to this

      Thank You!
      
      Throughout our history, we have had several presidents win and defy the polls.  John F. Kennedy’s presidential victory is one of the most famous cases of a candidate winning against the odds. Despite the polls predicting a  Nixon win, Kennedy narrowly won. Ronald Reagan's election win also defied early poll expectations. For much of the campaign, incumbent President Jimmy Carter led Reagan in the polls.  Most recently, in 2016, Trump pulled off a major upset over Hillary Clinton. Polls consistently showed Clinton with a clear lead, especially in key battleground states. Yet, on Election Day, Trump won.
      
      Just some food for thought --- I got to thinking and in my opinion, these three men shared several traits.   John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and Donald Trump share several traits despite their differing political eras and styles. All three men were charismatic leaders who leveraged their personal appeal to connect with large segments of the population. Each seemed to capitalize on a strong media presence—Kennedy with television during his debates, Reagan as a former actor, and Trump through his reality TV fame. Additionally, they all positioned themselves as true outsiders aiming to challenge the political establishment, appealing to voters’ desire for big change. Their presidencies were also marked by a focus on strong nationalism, with each leader promoting a vision of America's global dominance and influence.  Despite their varying policies and legacies, Kennedy, Reagan, and Trump shared a flair for populism, media-savvy strategies, and an ability to galvanize political movements.

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