What are Gary Johnson's actual chances of winning the 2016 election?
I'm curious to know the statistical probability of a third party winning the election. An educated guess will also suffice.
Somewhere between "doodly" and "squat"... and squat just left town!
Zero. No chance. He won't win any electoral votes. Libertarians will need to start winning Congressional seats in order for there to be any change in the outcomes of these elections.
But you don't vote for the 3rd party thinking like that. It is either a look to the future (every vote builds on another) or it is a protest. Johnson is a bit of a goofball, but he was a good Governor in a very Democratic and diverse state (New Mexico). If you don't try and agitate a little, we will never get change. As a Republican, I think that is the first time I've used the word "agitate" about anything.
The Electoral College is one of the reasons there will never be a third party. It would never work. It could work if they counted the popular vote.
Very true, Greg. Now that first popular vote election would be fun.
Odds of winning: Zero, nil, none, impossible.
Odds of taking enough votes to swing the election to a different candidate: possible.
It has happened before.
When Abraham Lincoln won, the Republicans were a newly emerging spin-off of the Democratic-Republican party.
The result was Civil War.
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