What are Gary Johnson's actual chances of winning the 2016 election?

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  1. Irvin Watson profile image62
    Irvin Watsonposted 24 months ago

    What are Gary Johnson's actual chances of winning the 2016 election?

    I'm curious to know the statistical probability of a third party winning the election. An educated guess will also suffice.


  2. FatFreddysCat profile image97
    FatFreddysCatposted 24 months ago

    Somewhere between "doodly" and "squat"... and squat just left town!

  3. lions44 profile image97
    lions44posted 24 months ago

    Zero. No chance. He won't win any electoral votes.  Libertarians will need to start winning Congressional seats in order for there to be any change in the outcomes of these elections.

    But you don't vote for the 3rd party thinking like that. It is either a look to the future (every vote builds on another) or it is a protest. Johnson is a bit of a goofball, but he was a good Governor in a very Democratic and diverse state (New Mexico).  If you don't try and agitate a little, we will never get change.  As a Republican, I think that is the first time I've used the word "agitate" about anything.

    1. gregas profile image82
      gregasposted 24 months agoin reply to this

      The Electoral College is one of the reasons there will never be a third party. It would never work. It could work if they counted the popular vote.

    2. lions44 profile image97
      lions44posted 24 months agoin reply to this

      Very true, Greg.  Now that first popular vote election would be fun.

  4. dashingscorpio profile image86
    dashingscorpioposted 24 months ago

    Slim and none; And Slim just left the building!

  5. tamarawilhite profile image91
    tamarawilhiteposted 24 months ago

    Odds of winning: Zero, nil, none, impossible.
    Odds of taking enough votes to swing the election to a different candidate: possible.

  6. FitnezzJim profile image83
    FitnezzJimposted 24 months ago

    It has happened before.
    When Abraham Lincoln won, the Republicans were a newly emerging spin-off of the Democratic-Republican party.

    The result was Civil War.

  7. Rupert Taylor profile image98
    Rupert Taylorposted 24 months ago

    Latest polling show him doing very poorly in Aleppo.

    1. FitnezzJim profile image83
      FitnezzJimposted 24 months agoin reply to this

      Latest news seems to indicate Aleppo itself is not doing so well.  Does the city still exist?


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