Does political polls matter any more?
In light of recent events, does any political polls matter? How accurate are they? It seems to me, if I am a pollster, I would go back to the drawing board and find out what went wrong before taking any more polls...perhaps they are using the wrong mix and perhaps they need a different sample...or a larger sample...
To who and by whom? The polls are about 'voting'. It is apparent the outcome favored some polls and not others. Some polls said Clinton would get more votes. She did.
From Inquistir.com is this quote: (Alas, do they publish Fake News? I dun'no . . . )
"National head-to-head polling measures only which candidate would currently win the most votes, if the election were held when the poll is taken. While Trump won the presidency by winning enough individual states to collect 306 electoral votes — 36 more than required under the U.S. Constitution to win the presidential election, Clinton prevailed in the contest measured by polls, the popular vote."
Also, in the article it points out that the accuracy of the 2016 polling was more acute than 2012. The polling in 2012 missed by 2.7 points while 2016 at the time of the article (Nov 12) points out it will be by 2.0 points.
If the popular vote is not what wins our elections, why take polls that predict that result? Shouldn't polls be fashioned after the electoral model and not popular vote? Just curious.
They do state polls Jack. We just are not exposed to them because it is not national news. At RealClearPolitics.com they published state polling results along the way. For instance on the 7th an Ohio poll showed Trump +7, another NC tied, and etc.
Jack, the polls were actually right. The race was tied or within the margin of error in all the key states. Trump did not win by wide margins overall, just in a few counties. So the polls showed a close race in the final weeks. That's what happened. HRC lead by a slight margin, reflecting the popular vote totals we see today.
However, MI and WI were not seen as real "swing" states, which is where the real error was. If HRC flew to Detroit and Milwaukee a couple of times in those final days to get out the vote, she probably wins.
We don't know the effect of the Comey letter. Right after that the polls narrowed. We can infer an effect of some kind. Combined with lower than average African American turnout, meant a loss for HRC. This was no blowout win for Trump. Maybe for the Party, but not for the President elect.
They lost their impact when it became evident that political polls went from reporting of facts to edited, altered and collected specifically to shape public opinion on various issues.
by Ralph Schwartz 2 years ago
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