Does political polls matter any more?
In light of recent events, does any political polls matter? How accurate are they? It seems to me, if I am a pollster, I would go back to the drawing board and find out what went wrong before taking any more polls...perhaps they are using the wrong mix and perhaps they need a different sample...or a larger sample...
To who and by whom? The polls are about 'voting'. It is apparent the outcome favored some polls and not others. Some polls said Clinton would get more votes. She did.
From Inquistir.com is this quote: (Alas, do they publish Fake News? I dun'no . . . )
"National head-to-head polling measures only which candidate would currently win the most votes, if the election were held when the poll is taken. While Trump won the presidency by winning enough individual states to collect 306 electoral votes — 36 more than required under the U.S. Constitution to win the presidential election, Clinton prevailed in the contest measured by polls, the popular vote."
Also, in the article it points out that the accuracy of the 2016 polling was more acute than 2012. The polling in 2012 missed by 2.7 points while 2016 at the time of the article (Nov 12) points out it will be by 2.0 points.
If the popular vote is not what wins our elections, why take polls that predict that result? Shouldn't polls be fashioned after the electoral model and not popular vote? Just curious.
They do state polls Jack. We just are not exposed to them because it is not national news. At RealClearPolitics.com they published state polling results along the way. For instance on the 7th an Ohio poll showed Trump +7, another NC tied, and etc.
Jack, the polls were actually right. The race was tied or within the margin of error in all the key states. Trump did not win by wide margins overall, just in a few counties. So the polls showed a close race in the final weeks. That's what happened. HRC lead by a slight margin, reflecting the popular vote totals we see today.
However, MI and WI were not seen as real "swing" states, which is where the real error was. If HRC flew to Detroit and Milwaukee a couple of times in those final days to get out the vote, she probably wins.
We don't know the effect of the Comey letter. Right after that the polls narrowed. We can infer an effect of some kind. Combined with lower than average African American turnout, meant a loss for HRC. This was no blowout win for Trump. Maybe for the Party, but not for the President elect.
They lost their impact when it became evident that political polls went from reporting of facts to edited, altered and collected specifically to shape public opinion on various issues.
by Ralph Schwartz 24 months ago
Does anyone trust political polling anymore?We've all heard the news...Hillary up 10 points, now Trump up 3, wait, now Hillary is back up, hold on, now it's tied......seriously, does anyone believe any of them at this point? And furthermore, what do they matter with still nearly 3 months and...
by Dennis L. Page 2 years ago
What does this recent polling say about Trump supporters?Using polling from Public Policy and YouGov, the New York Times has reported an analysis of Trump voters. Here is a breakdown of those who support Trump:33.3% of South Carolina Trump supporters would like to bar gays and lesbians from...
by ptosis 2 years ago
What or which, where are the credible sources of information? Huge poll differences out there.Pollster has Clinton leading Trump, The fake news web site posing as ABC says Trump leading Clinton be a huge amount. Siena College Poll conducted between Aug. 7-10. says Clinton has a 30 point lead in New...
by John Wilson 2 years ago
Rasmussen Poll Trump Leads Clinton by 2 Points Nationally - Is the Media Losing the Propaganda Wars?I'm feeling the news media, despite all the propaganda they're spewing about hilllary killary, is losing the war!The war being against democracy and for a socialistic cesspool. The average person...
by Susie Lehto 2 years ago
* http://constitution.com/trump-leading-6 … 00-voters/ App maker: Trump will win election!* http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016 … /88640044/"What do you honestly think Trump meant by saying "The 2nd amendment people can do something about Hillary? Vote...
by Tim Mitchell 21 months ago
What are your 'feelings' about politics today?I realize we all have opinions about politics with its many directions and controversies. But, what are your 'feelings'? Maybe that can be expanded with the interactions one has today with what are the feelings of the circles traveled in your life?
Copyright © 2018 HubPages Inc. and respective owners. Other product and company names shown may be trademarks of their respective owners. HubPages® is a registered Service Mark of HubPages, Inc. HubPages and Hubbers (authors) may earn revenue on this page based on affiliate relationships and advertisements with partners including Amazon, Google, and others.
|HubPages Device ID||This is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.|
|Login||This is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.|
|HubPages Traffic Pixel||This is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.|
|Remarketing Pixels||We may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.|
|Conversion Tracking Pixels||We may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.|