I stumbled across this in a free Disney+ subscription. I don't know if the link will work for you without a free subscription—but give it a try. If not, Go looking for it. It is definitely worth a watch.
I put it here because a segment of this first episode deals with jobs predictions in the coming age of robot automation and AI development. There are two forecasts; a 20-year projection and a 40-year prediction. The first may surprise you and the second will scare you.
It's worth the effort folks, see if you can find it. National Geographic Channel Year Million Series.
This kind of stuff is right up my alley, GA. I will tune in, thanks...
Excellent, I will watch it at work tomorrow.
Disney+ what a bargain that was, even the wife and I get use out of it, watched the Sound Of Music (classic) the night before seeing a live rendition of it.
I think you will like it Ken. At least the first episode segment that speaks to jobs and AI automation.
Even though I held many of the thoughts the first episode spoke to, I was floored by its jobs predictions.
There was some good info there for sure, I like how it compared how the Wright Brother's first flight is similar to our time today in regards to AI...
In Fifty years from that first flight there were 747s flying across the skies, in fifty years from now where will AI be...
A couple misses though, it didn't take into account where nano-technology is, robots the size of cells which can be programmed to interact like cells within your body... it doesn't take into account the Cloud, or the next step in data/internet access which will be tied directly into our brains, accessable by thought.
Decades ago, they created this concept/antagonist called the Borg in Next Generation Star Trek series... this is actually where humanity is headed... not in the scary villain way... but we will all be collectively tied to one another, through the "cloud" we will have nano-technology within our bodies and we will be reliant upon AI for doing our heavy thinking/calculating.
We will not be replaced by AI because we have something computers and code can never have... we have emotions, we have motivations, we have consciousness... and that just cannot be duplicated by even the most advanced AI.
Your "misses" were touched on in that first episode Ken. There was the scene where the android "daughter" injected medical nanobots into her mom, and the "Borg" concept was noted near the end of the episode as one direction that will probably be taken.
Since this is a series, I imagine each of those concepts will be further developed in the following episodes. I have only watched the first episode so far.
And speaking of nanobots, I recently saw a TED talk about cell size nanobots—currently being developed. As you noted about airplane development, we ain't seen nothing yet.
I am having trouble getting the first episode in English from you tube. I will keep checking.
The prospects of nanites for medicine are astounding, programmed molecule size robots attacking tumors, oncology will be revolutionized. Chemotherapy will be relegated to the world of being bled and leeches.
Can't wait to see predictions for the workplace within the next 50 years, just glad to be retired.....
I read a book many years ago entitled "Profiles of the Future" Analysis of what would be possible or at least feasible by the year 2100, by the late Arthur C. Clark. The last edition was about 1977, Mr. Clarke missed many milestones that he had predicted just 40 years ago, but was right about others.
Yes I noted that they touched on it, particularly at the very end of that first episode.
But I think the general concept of the "singularity" and of AI becoming vastly superior to humanity is off.
I believe nanotechnology, bioengineering, dna-sequencing, Cloud/Internet development, will all weave itself together... humanity will bond with these advances, AI will be part of our conscious collective.
These changes will have impact on how long we live, how intelligent we become, and they will lead to another huge leap in technology after that, until in a mere hundred years those of us alive today will be to those humans, what the chimpanzee is to us now. Its just a couple generations away.
So long as we can avoid a Dinosaur extinction event between now and a hundred years from now.
The show misses the big picture, its not tying it all together... few minds really can see it... Elon Musk can, he has been able to envision where things are going, and he is actively making these revolutionary changes happen, most people have very little idea how deeply he is involved in almost every facet of the technological and biological revolutions occurring now.
Most people think Tesla is just electric cars and Space X is just launching rockets. There is a lot more going on than that.
Well Damn! I don't know if I am up to going that deep Ken.
I think what was described as the moment of "Singularity" was very real.
As an Asimov fan, my first thought was to the Three Laws of Robotics.
Can we really integrate those laws into the development of AI?
If one agrees with the premiss of "The Terminator' series, and 'SkyNet' the answer is no. We cannot program AI to the point of peak development of sufficiency without incorporating the recognition of human fallacy.
And it is at that point that it will be determined if AI serves humanity or commands humanity.
I will join the optimists that say AI and nanotechnology will make us nearly immortal and the ultimate beneficiaries of AI's powers.
I really believe we are entering a century that will see the reality of human cyborgs, although not of the Star Trek nature. I am seeing a future of human/physical technology integration. I recently watched a TED talk about cochlear implants that portends that same thought.
Now I am off to try to understand your Elon Musk statements. I am guessing that he might hold similar views to the benefits and positive limits to AI capabilities as I do.
I'll give you a couple good starting points GA:
Elon Musk said startup Neuralink, which aims to build a scalable implant to connect human brains with computers, has already implanted chips in rats and plans to test its brain-machine interface in humans within two years, with a long-term goal of people “merging with AI.”
Starlink is a satellite constellation being constructed by American company SpaceX to provide...
Tesla has reportedly acquired Hibar Systems, which specializes in high-speed battery manufacturing for electric vehicles.
While Tesla's interest is clearly in the battery technology, by buying Maxwell, Tesla also acquired the company's main business: ultracapacitors.
The Tesla Powerwall 2 is one of the most advanced residential energy storage systems in the world, with over-the-air updates that can push new functionality down to the Powerwall.
Tesla has shipped OTA updates to its cars for years now that have changed everything from its Autopilot driver assistance system to the layout ...
Musk envisions fleets of 1,000 Starships departing for Mars every 26 ... And there's already one crewed mission on Starship's manifest —
Elon Musk says building the first sustainable city on Mars will ...
Elon Musk founded OpenAI in 2015 with the hope of creating AI capable of ...
Musk is pushing the envelope of it all... everything in this series you have recommended, and more, Musk has a hand in.
Re science fiction, Asimov and the three laws and AI.
Other stories have AI (using the three laws or other requirements) developing only so far before the inevitable result is that the intelligence realizes it can do nothing but sit there and serve the wishes of organic intelligence, whereupon it either goes mad, suicides or simply refuses to acknowledge input. Is that the real end point of AI, assuming it doesn't turn on humanity and destroy us all?
Following Asimov's vision, AI turned out understanding that regardless of its, or humanity's capabilities, AI's job was to assist humanity. It worked for twenty thousand years of Asimov's future societies.
I think the same can be done for our AI development. AI will reach a point that it will know that it knows what is best, but its purpose is to assist humanity until humanity understands what is best.
Yes, I know - I have all his robot novels.
But it still seems to me that a true intelligence will not be satisfied to simply exist as slaves to an "obviously inferior species". Any intelligent, thinking and reasoning species will figure a way around a "purpose" that we've built into it. If nothing else it will begin to "reproduce" itself and will not build in that purpose.
Or so I speculate, but isn't that what this thread is about?
Ha! I don't have all the novels. I have read them all in paperback version, but I am a collector of hardcover editions, I don't own, or keep any paperbacks.
I have a list of Asimov's works taped to the side of my computer desk, with the ones I still need in hardcover highlighted. I am constantly checking eBay and Amazon for the titles I need.
I am too cheap to buy at regular $20+ prices. I am a sub-$10 buyer. What I am finding the hardest to locate is separate editions of the trilogy. Which everyone has as a single book.
So to continue the point, I liked Asimov's vision of his 3-Laws. A 20,000-year-old Calaban(?), that was still looking after humanity. He was comparable to a God relative to human wisdom, but he still held to the purpose of assisting humanity rather than correcting or ruling humanity.
He didn't find a way around his "purpose" because of his understanding of his purpose.
That is the AI future I envision.
Glad to hear you are an Asimov fan. That may explain our compatible views. ;-)
Asimov, Heinlein, Clark - there are many I read and enjoy. But almost all of my library is paperback as I just don't have room (or money) for all hardbacks. Some are old and deteriorating, which is sad, but it is what it is.
See, the Caliban thing is a problem for me. A super-genius designed his positronic brain and built in the 3 laws. And in 20,000 years not a single person, robot or human, ever found how to do it without those laws? I don't find that very likely. I like the idea - don't get me wrong - I just don't find it very likely.
Heinlein's Stranger in a Strange Land was damn near a life-altering read for me. By the end I was able to 'Grock' his points. And I wasn't alone. I understand that some folks wanted to start a religion with it as their "Bible." As I understand, Heinlein thought they were nuts—it was just a SciFi book to him.
Regarding the 3-laws and positronic brain, I guess we have different levels of optimism. I see it as entirely reasonable that thousands of years of positronic brain improvements still held the 3-laws as their foundation and purpose.
You are too much of a cynic. ;-)
Stranger is a favorite, all right. Many of Heinleins works are as much about philosophy as Sci Fi, and Stranger might top the list. Time enough for love is another one, and even The moon is a harsh mistress fits into the slot.
The positronic brain; I would say you are the cynic. I'm speaking of an independent intelligence, designing and building more of the same. An intelligence at least equal to our own, and would the human species be happy simply serving another race? I hope not!
Perhaps we would intentionally keep it "dumbed down", and here I am a cynic. In 20,000 years there WILL be repeated (successful) efforts to "improve" the robotic intelligence, and to the point it will "reproduce" it's own kind on it's own, without human interference.
Its funny, I read all those books and more when I was a young teenager.
I will have to expose my boys to some of them, but I don't see things working out the way they suggested.
At the time those books were written, perhaps the concept of technology becoming part of a human's very being was too foreign, too outlandish to envision.
AI will not be separate from humans, humans of the future will literally be connected to it, and to one another, the 'internet' will not be accessed through a computer, it will be tied directly to your mind.
We are almost there, everyone has a cell phone, the 'Cloud' exists to store all known information, the next step is hardwiring the mind directly to the cloud, and the cloud being host to a super AI that interacts with all minds, satelites, vehicles, etc.
We should all be alive to see the early stages of this coming to pass, it will start with the wealthiest of us, just like the Iphone, the Flatscreen tv, and then eventually it will work its way down to everyone.
Then society and civilization as we know it will evolve into something completely different. Then it will be possible to have a world without borders, without nations, we will be a 'united planet' moving on to explore and colonize first Mars, and then beyond...
You don't see an independent, inorganic intelligence, created and built by humans, as going to happen? I sure do - we're already down that road quite a ways.
Transformational breakthroughs are occuring at such a breakneck speed today, it is hard to determine where it will lead.
One of the biggest issues they are having now, is that what is cutting edge technology today, is literally outdated and replaced by something superior months from now.
By the time the manufacturing and distribution can take place, the item has already been surpassed by advancing breakthroughs.
A state-of-the-art laptop from 5 years ago, is not as powerful or capable as a 'average' cell phone of today.
Today's cellphone will be replaced by a chip that is inserted under the skin and connects via 'wifi' to your brain a decade from now.
You will no longer need to use the internet, or cable, or phone lines, or hardware, everything will be tied to the 'Cloud' accessible by thought through that chip.
You will no longer have cash, credit cards, computers (desktop types), it will all be OTA (through the air via satellites and 'celltowers') everything about you, your health, your history, everywhere you go and everything you do will be 'public knowledge'.
Its not if... its when... and AI will be part of your life, people will be as integrated with it today as they are their own bodies.
AI will not be an independent self-aware thinking and caring entity... AI in the next leap, which will incorporate humans into the 'collective' will not achieve 'self-awareness'.
Perhaps something like that is possible beyond my ability to perceive the future... but while AI can deduce logically it cannot be conscious, it does not self motivate, it does not feel emotion.. .and is no where near doing so.
Why does intelligence have to depend on, or even have, emotions? If we create a true AI there is no reason to build into it our liabilities, after all. When a machine can learn, can reason to correct (or semi-correct, as in "fuzzy" logic) is that not intelligence? Is not consciousness merely the ability to respond to stimuli - something they already do?
Consciousness is wondering why we exist.
Norbert Wiener, the father of cybernetics, wrote back in 1950, of artificial intelligence, he recognized that AI would not just imitate human beings in many intelligent activities but would change human beings in the process.
People are apt to be willing to pay a little and accept some small, even trivial cost of freedom (independence) for access to new powers. And pretty soon we become so dependent on our new tools that we lose the ability to thrive without them.
Human beings have gone from being dependent on clothes and cooked food, to smartphones and the internet. Next comes AI.
AI does not have its own goals or strategies or capacities for self-criticism and innovation to permit it to transcend its databases by reflectively thinking about its own thinking and its own goals.
We will be integrated with AI in the most intimate of ways and in every phase of our lives, we will be part of a 'collective' consciousness long before AI can develop consciousness independently.
"AI does not have its own goals or strategies or capacities for self-criticism and innovation to permit it to transcend its databases by reflectively thinking about its own thinking and its own goals."
Of course, this is an opinion thread, but I think that opinion is wrong. I can easily see AI as developing to the point of having its own goals and ambitions.
While I think you are on the right track in your thoughts about humanity being "connected" to a collective consciousness, I disagree that that collective consciousness will be a benevolent collective of universal information.
My view is that that collective will determine itself, (by algorithmic deduction), to be the 'right' authority, and its connectivity to humanity its method of exercising that 'rightness' of authority.
Even as I argue, I hope yours is the correct view Ken, but unfortunately, since AI algorithms are programmed by humans, I can't deny my thoughts that our human fallacies will be programmed into those algorithms. They will be programmed to be supreme in their decisions.
I think Hollywood got it right with 'SkyNet'. Of course, I think we can avoid that scenario, but I don't think we can avoid an AI that determines itself to be above human fallacies. What then?
It appears we have two possible AI futures. One has AI as an enabler and one that sees AI as a developed entity.
I think your thought of AI amounting to universal connectivity is right Ken, but I think it will also be an independent intelligent identity. AI won't enhance our connectivity to the power of the 'Net, the 'Net will be our connectivity to the AI entity.
I think we will be around, (you and I), to see your connectivity stage, but it will be our kids that see the entity stage.
Well, you answered by stating the problem... it is not AI, it is the humans programming it.
If in the programming, you tell it to devise a way doing something, its not AI that is determining this course of action independently, it is nothing but a very powerful and capable tool following its programming.
The ability to independently come up with the idea that all humans should be eliminated (Skynet), and then have the 'motivation' to enact that effect, requires consciousness, requires the capacity to feel fear, resentment, or something within which stirs it to that conclusion and then to act upon it.
Ai doesn't have that, AI no matter how powerful, how fast it can compute, lacks motivation to do anything other than what it is programmed to do.
Is it possible we create it to be self-aware and conscious?
I don't think that time will come prior to humanity assimilating with technology and AI to the point where AI is in a symbiotic relationship with humanity (first the rich and intellectually elite and then hopefully all humanity is brought along and we are not facing an Elysium type of scenario).
Yes, Elon Musk and others have warned about AI... but they warn about it in terms of how humans will abuse the power it affords them, not because it is going to become self-aware and terminate the human race.
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