Norpoth and Lichtman both cast their 2020 presidential predictions

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   Stevennix2001posted 4 years ago

   As most of you may know, both these men have been able to accurately predict the election results beforehand for decades successfully.  However, both these professors have made different predictions, which means one of them is gong to be wrong this coming election day.   
   
   Professor Helmut Norpoth predicts Trump will win in a landslide this coming election year, and this current pandemic along with the racially charged riots will not have much barring on the results.
   
   https://spectator.org/helmut-norpoth-tr … -november/
   
   Meanwhile, Allan Lichtman hasn't been wrong predicting presidential outcomes since 1984 according to the media.   And he predicts Joe Biden will win this election.  To be fair, he did claim pre-pandemic that it looked like Trump was all but certain to be re-elected, but the current political climate regarding race issues, riots, and the pandemic may have changed things significantly to swing towards Joe Biden. 
   
   
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0PDVeBRLUA
   
   So who's going to be right?  And who's going to be wrong?   Please discuss.

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      Sharlee01posted 4 years agoin reply to this

      I think this election is like no other, due to the pandemic, losing a wonderful record-breaking economy, and ongoing unrest in Democratic cites. Both futurist skills are notably accurate, but neither has had to predict with so many unpredictable obstacles that faced America in 2020.
      
      Here are the keys that Lichtman held against Trump. If an incumbent gets six keys he will lose the election.  Lichtman gave Trump 7 keys.  In my opinion, only a few applied - 1. 8. 9. 12.
      Not sure  Mr. L realizes we no longer have ISIS... 
      And both economic keys would not have been considered pre - COVID. 
      
      Key 1, Mandate Key, because of Republican losses in the midterm elections of 2018.
      Key 5, Short-Term Economic Key, because of an election-year recession.
      Key 6, Long-Term Economic Key, because of the sharply negative growth this year.
      Key 8, Social Unrest, because what is raging across the land.
      Key 9, Scandal, Trump is only the third American president to be impeached by the full US House of Representatives.
      Key 11, Foreign/Military Success, because of the lack of an acclaimed success abroad.
      Key 12, Incumbent Charisma, because Trump appeals only to a narrow base.

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   Live to Learnposted 4 years ago

   It's a hard call. I saw Lichtman on a news segment, sharing how he comes up with his predictions. But, never before have we lived in such strange times. I think it is necessary to factor in the oddities going on. I think he needs to factor in the extraordinary climate.
   
   I guess I'll have to look up Norpoth and as how he calculates the winner.
   
   My personal opinion is the only way Biden can win is if the democrats cheat, which I have no doubt they are and will continue to do.

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      IslandBitesposted 4 years agoin reply to this

      My personal opinion is the only way Biden can win is if the democrats cheat, which I have no doubt they are and will continue to do.
      
      

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         Live to Learnposted 4 years agoin reply to this

         Nice that such a thought can make one of us laugh, but the left has ceased to live in reality so I can see why we might not share the same sense of humor.

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            PrettyPantherposted 4 years agoin reply to this

            

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         GA Andersonposted 4 years agoin reply to this

         Tsk. tsk. so lazy. Come on IslandMom. Spend a few keystrokes to tell us what you really think. ;-)
         
         GA

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            PrettyPantherposted 4 years agoin reply to this

            She expended the same amount of effort on her response that LtL did on validating her  opinion (of which she has no doubt, mind you.)
            
            In my opinion, of course, which is based on the evidence. Or, more accurately, the complete lack of evidence that voter fraud exists at a level beyond what is generally described as "miniscule."

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               GA Andersonposted 4 years agoin reply to this

               What! Say it ain't so. You really don't believe the Democrats are going to steal this election with mail-in ballot voter fraud!
               
               Come on. You know, as well as I do that the Democrats have tons of hidden mail-in ballots that they will sneak in just before the polls close. How can you be so naive?
               
               *sigh* Yes, that was my feeble attempt at a sarcastic response. I also took issue with Live to Learn's response, but was chiding IslandMom for being so lazy, (although more wasn't really needed), as to simply reply with an emotican—which you will note, I never use. ;-)
               
               GA

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                  PrettyPantherposted 4 years agoin reply to this

                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  Just kidding. I resisted emotions for quite some time, but have come to recognize that certain situations deserve nothing more than a single jeering grin.

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                     GA Andersonposted 4 years agoin reply to this

                     Amen to that thought.
                     
                     GA

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               Abby Slutskyposted 4 years agoin reply to this

               Yes, I am certain fraud will be at its height. Look at the problem with the Brooklyn ballots, and that is just one example. Absentee ballots should have been okay, but all this mail in and extended time to vote should not have happened. God Bless America. Let's hope. I personally think this is destined to be a disaster.

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            IslandBitesposted 4 years agoin reply to this

            A few keystrokes, ok. ---> L O L
            
            Only because you asked so nicely.

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               GA Andersonposted 4 years agoin reply to this

               Yeah, PrettyPanther already jumped me for chastising you. But you deserved it. Your simple LOL would have averted all the consternation.
               
               GA

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      GA Andersonposted 4 years agoin reply to this

      "My personal opinion is the only way Biden can win is if the democrats cheat, which I have no doubt they are and will continue to do."
      
      I just had to grab your comment as a launching pad after I saw that quote. I just don't see the potential for Democrat cheating on a scale that would change the election results.
      
      I have no expertise, and no Google University validation for my thought, but, I think Covid-19 has defeated Pres. Trump. Now, remember, this is just my 'gut' prediction. It doesn't claim any authoritative evaluations, it is just my perspective. I am predicting a Biden win. I can only hope that doesn't also translate into a Senate upheaval. Us Conservatives are going to need the Senate more than ever.
      
      GA

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         Live to Learnposted 4 years agoin reply to this

         You could be right. My position is that Trump set him self up to lose, if a viable candidate had been put forth. Joe is not that candidate. Not for all the complaints put forth by the left prior to the democratic nomination.
         
         Joe's nomination is a slap in the face to every complaint put forth against Trump. It's the opportunistic nature of the democratic machine, not the natural result of the will of the people.
         
         If Biden wins, I wish he would (but he won't) remember most of the country is not voting for any agenda as much as they are voting against a personality. He will not have a mandate.

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         Credence2posted 4 years agoin reply to this

         "I can only hope that doesn't also translate into a Senate upheaval. Us Conservatives are going to need the Senate more than ever".
         -----
         
         That is all the more reason why we have to win the Senate, which in many ways is more crucial and important than just being rid of Trump. Was Trump's election reflecting a mandate? I think not, as he did not win the popular vote in 2016.

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         Live to Learnposted 4 years agoin reply to this

         Honestly, everyone is stating opinions. Most anyone can find a statistic, expert or article to support their opinions.
         
         Most everyone here has already made up their mind on the subject.
         
         I see a massive amount of cheating. Everything from ballot harvesting, paying people for those absentee ballots to be filled out a certain way, ballots found mysteriously undelivered, a concerted effort by left leaning news organizations to subvert truth, a documented effort by social media sites to quash any information that may hurt the left.
         
         All taken together makes me leery. Plus, let's be honest. We've spent four years of the left whining that a fair election resulted in a stolen election so if I chose to do the same if Biden wins I think I will have more to stand on with the complaint than they did.

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            GA Andersonposted 4 years agoin reply to this

            ". . . a concerted effort by left leaning news organizations to subvert truth, a documented effort by social media sites to quash any information that may hurt the left."
            
            That is about all I can agree with. I have not seen evidence of "ballot harvesting," or paying people for their absentee ballots. Also, the only other evidence I have seen, such as the military Trump ballots in a trashcan, have been anecdotal references that I haven't seen followed-up with proof of systemic abuse.
            
            Maybe I am being naive, but I think proof should be a crucial requirement for such claims.
            
            GA

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   PrettyPantherposted 4 years ago

   https://www.270towin.com/maps/niskanen- … redictions
   
   Check out this site. If you scroll down below the map and click on "Reset Map" a drop-down menu appears showing predictions from several different prognosticators.

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      Stevennix2001posted 4 years agoin reply to this

      That's interesting.  I'll check out the link.  Thanks Pretty Panther.

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   Stevennix2001posted 4 years ago

   Well regardless of what happens after election day, I just hope there's no riots over the results, as I do worry some people are going to be awfully mad if the person they want to win doesn't win.    That's the thing that worries me honestly.

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      Live to Learnposted 4 years agoin reply to this

      I can't see the right doing anything violent.   I can see the far left getting more violent.

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      GA Andersonposted 4 years agoin reply to this

      As telling as my response may be, I would only anticipate violent rioting if Pres. Trump wins.
      
      GA

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   emgeposted 4 years ago

   I will add a bit of my own forecast which have been made by Indian astrologers. Most of them have forecast that Trump will win and we will have to see when the result comes out. I have however a gut feeling that Trump is going to carry the flag, I don't know whether it will be good or bad for America and the world because neither Biden orTrump are dynamic. That's all I will say.

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