Heading into 2022 and 2024, new polling has 44% of the GOP favoring Trump as the candidate, but nearly a third not wanting Trump to remain in national politics.
Now, other polling has Biden with only a 4% approval rate among the GOP and in the 30's with independents, while sitting at 80% among his own party.
Can Trump win when a third of the party may not be willing to vote for him?
Yes. You're laying out the exact same thing as happened in 2016; a "non-starter" was given the opportunity and half the country picked him rather than the twisted evil offered by the Democrat party. It seems that the majority of people do not vote "for" a candidate but rather "against" one; that a third of the GOP does not want Trump in politics does not mean they would not choose him over the failed, destructive policies of Democrats. They did it in 2016 and they will do it again after watching Biden.
Problem for you is that most sane republicans can see that when comparing failed and destructive policies, the Democrats will not put the country in a $7.8 trillion dollar hole or directly work against the policies that protect people during a deadly pandemic.
Democratic failures still pale in comparison to the level of debt that the GOP puts us in or the death toll from their failure to believe in basic science.
By the time Biden is done American's will have a pretty good picture of his agenda, and just how that all worked out for America. At this point, one could just point to the polls to varify the displeasure of the American people. Or just turn on the tube daily to view all the many hot messes he is accomplishing this far.
I think in 2024 people will have an incumbent that will and should be judged on his job performance. Maybe many will consider it's not such a good idea to lean rely on emotions when choosing a president, or the" I just hate you" scenario.
Trump in my view was a good president and did a good job. If he runs, maybe more will return to looking at what is truly important in a president. Job performance, and a good dose of common sense.
I agree with you, the Democrats have destructive policies. In my view, that is what will in the end find them losing in the mid-terms, and as well in 2024 no matter who the Republicans run.
One small problem will trip up Trump's bid for the presidency; it's called the Constitution, specifically Article 14, Section 3, which reads:
"No Person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."
You can look it up. I did.
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