What are the stars saying, Finland and Sweden is on the horizon.

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   tsmogposted 11 months ago

   I follow Sweden and much is happening there since the Ukraine conflict began. Same with Finland while the two are closely aligned with each other. Both are strongly considering application to NATO. Recent polling is favor of it, Now.
   
   Putin has already banged the drums of threatening usage of nuclear capabilities. Sweden in the recent months is revitalizing its over 65,000 bomb shelters and making its populace know where they are. They have beefed up their military on Gotland an island in the Baltic Sea, which Russia has always had an eye on.
   
   Is this going to be chapter two?
   
   Will Finland and Sweden Join NATO? by Center for Strategic & International Studies (Apr 15, 2022)
   https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-finl … -join-nato
   
   Sweden's Gotland gets ready for anything amid rising Russian threats
   https://www.dw.com/en/swedens-gotland-g … a-60620892

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      Credence2posted 11 months agoin reply to this

      Putin is revealing himself as more of tyrant each day. What would anyone expect Sweden or Finland not be concerned about their own security when the ravenous bear is so close to their own borders? If it can so brazenly attack its neighbor why would they not believe that outside NATO protection, they would not be next?

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   tsmogposted 10 months ago

   Well it pretty much is a done deal now as Finland officially announces support for NATO membership. All that is left is for its parliament to green light it in the coming days. Odds are Sweden will follow soon with their application.
   
   Do you think Russia will retaliate? How?
   
   What about Turkey's opposition to it?
   
   Will it affect Ukraine?
   
   How will it affect the U.S.?
   
   Finland officially announces support for NATO membership
   https://www.dw.com/en/finland-officiall … a-61803764
   
   Finland announces it wants to join NATO by Politico
   https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/1 … o-00032553
   
   Finland's president and prime minister announce formal intention to join NATO by EuroNews
   https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/15/nat … and-sweden

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      GA Andersonposted 10 months agoin reply to this

      A look-around says Turkey is asking 'what's in it for me"? with its opposition. I think Turkey will not block this deal—but it wants something from it before agreeing.
      
      *That's just a thought, based on my many years as an ambassador-level diplomat representing the nation of Maryland in a decades-long career of international negotiations. (the St. Petersburg accord was one of my better moments)
      
      GA

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         tsmogposted 10 months agoin reply to this

         I had to look up what Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is while not really seeing anything about Sweden's stance with it. That seems to be the sticky point by Turkey.
         
         I'm impressed by your ambassadorship. Were you also instrumental in severing the sister city relationship with Leningrad?

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            GA Andersonposted 10 months agoin reply to this

            Yes, I was instrumental, that's why I noted it as my great success. I convinced them that nobody needed to sever anything, just think of it as the dominant co-joined twin becoming the submissive one, still the same body.. I presented it as taking turns. It worked.
            
            GA

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               tsmogposted 10 months agoin reply to this

               Congratulations on your endeavor achieving reality. Frankly being early morning sipping my coffee listening to Progressive Rock upon seeing co-joined twin my mind flashed to:
               
               Twin Sons of Different Mothers by Dan Fogelberg and Tim Weisberg's album of 1978 specfically the song "The Power of Gold". Youtube below:
               
               https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H69ohsJOliw
               
               Then coming upon submissive one, still the same body . . I presented it is as taking turns my mind flashed upon Hegel's Master-Slave Dialectic specifically the quest is self-consciousness while thinking of nation identity with the recent conflict in Europe. 
               
               Hegel’s Master-Slave Dialectic: the search for self-consciousness
               https://central.edu/writing-anthology/2 … ciousness/
               
               So, thanks for the mystical and magical time of exploration of experience as influenced by language communicating ideas

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                  GA Andersonposted 10 months agoin reply to this

                  Sure thing.
                  
                  Your Hegel link was a good one, I like his idea as an extrapolation of Locke's ideas about State of Nature. Now I'm going to have to look into his reasoning.
                  
                  GA

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                     tsmogposted 10 months agoin reply to this

                     Unsure of the dialectic related to the state of nature of either Locke or Hobbes. Yet, both their views of the state of nature may be something to ponder with the Buffalo shooting as well as other mass shootings.
                     
                     Edit: Also, one thing I noted with the Musk video on freedom of speech at the end he said he studied the German philosophers, e.g. Hegel.

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                        GA Andersonposted 10 months agoin reply to this

                        I read both as being applicable. This tangent probably deserves a thread of its own.
                        
                        GA

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                           tsmogposted 10 months agoin reply to this

                           Agreed . . .

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      Nathanvilleposted 10 months agoin reply to this

      Russia isn’t in a position to retaliate militarily; they’ve got all their resources tied up in Ukraine, and are currently in a weak position.  Russia might cut off their supply of natural gas to Finland, but that only represents just 6% of their energy mix, and can be easily compensated for.  And less than 2% of Sweden’s gas comes from Russia, so they have no real worries either.
      
      At this time I have no opinion on Turkey’s opposition, so I’ll go with GA Anderson’s view.
      
      Finland’s Defence Budget is currently 1.96%, close to the 2% target for NATO, so in that respect Finland should be a welcome member to NATO from the USA’s perspective.  Sweden’s current Defence Budget is 1.2% of their GDP; whether that will change if/when Sweden joins NATO!

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         tsmogposted 10 months agoin reply to this

         I haven't been keeping as close and eye on Sweden's position recently, which I am partial to, yet I knew they would follow Finland seeking NATO membership. One thing to note with Sweden regard defense spending is they increased it significantly this year seeking the 2% GDP index as well as a 'new' strong national defense attitude. We should consider there was not a need before. Another note is Sweden's navy is significant while considering Russia and the Baltic Sea.

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            Nathanvilleposted 10 months agoin reply to this

            Thanks for the update.

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            wildernessposted 10 months agoin reply to this

            "We should consider there was not a need before."
            
            Tell that to the Ukrainians.  There is never a "need" for a strong military...until there is.

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               tsmogposted 10 months agoin reply to this

               You're correct, yet as stated they have increased their defense spending with an emphasis on ground forces.

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               Readmikenowposted 10 months agoin reply to this

               "ell that to the Ukrainians.  There is never a "need" for a strong military...until there is."
               
               You are right.  The Ukrainians military wake-up call occurred in 2014 when Russa joined the break away republics and Russia then annexed Crimea. They knew invasion was inevitable.  It wasn't a matter of if, but when.
               
               Fortunately, Russia is no longer in a position to invade any country right now.

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   Readmikenowposted 10 months ago

   Has anyone heard of the Winter War? It may also be influencing Finland to join NATO.
   
   It was a war between Finland and the USSR between 1939 and 1940. It began when the USSR invaded Finland.
   
   It lasted approximately 3 months.
   
   Finland had approximately 70,000 causalities.  The USSR had over 300,000 causalities.
   
   It ended when Finland gave up 9% of the territory to the USSR.
   
   Most nations believed the USSR would take Finland quickly.  It didn't happen due to the resistance of the Finnish military.  Sound familiar?
   
   https://www.history.com/this-day-in-his … ks-finland

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      tsmogposted 10 months agoin reply to this

      Interesting while I do see a parallel with Ukraine. As you pointed out way back when in earlier Ukraine threads as well as others European history does have a great impact on current events politically and regard sovereignty. It leaves me wondering if there will be compromise again as the means to resolution with the loss of territory?

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         Readmikenowposted 10 months agoin reply to this

         Ukraine president Zalensky said there will not be any negotiations to end the conflict until all of Ukraine's territory is returned.
         
         We'll see.

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