Food Costs

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   Willowarborposted 2 months ago

   There has been a laser focus on the cost of grocery items as they were impacted during covid and the recovery period. 
   
   As Trump prepares two enter the oval office, I would like to take a look at his "plan" to address these rising costs and continue to have a space to monitor any fluctuation in prices.    He has said that he will "end inflation on day one.".   
   
   "Trump's vow to lower food prices clashes with his love of tariffs and desire to deport migrant workers with economists warning those steps would drive up consumer prices at a time inflation is finally cooling.
   
   At a rally in Michigan, an attendee asked Trump what he would do to reduce food costs.
   
   American farmers, Trump said, are being "absolutely decimated" and that one of the reasons is that the U.S. allows "a lot of farm product into our country." In the future, "we're not going to allow so much," he added.
   
   The Food and Drug Administration estimates that the U.S. imports roughly 15% of its overall food supply.
   
   Tariffs were a favorite policy tool of the first Trump administration and play a big part in his plans for a second term — though economists have repeatedly warned that this could reignite inflation.
   
   Restricting imports via tariffs might decrease some competition but would "almost certainly have the opposite effect" Trump intends and "lead to higher prices," David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, told Axios.
   
   Food imports work to keep grocery prices low, and using tariffs to decrease food prices "makes no sense," said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, a think tank devoted to reducing hunger and malnutrition.
   
   American farmers also export a good deal of what they produce. Introducing import tariffs could cause other countries to retaliate, hurting American farmers, both Ortega and Glauber said.
   Context: Any U.S. president "can do very little to affect food prices in the short run," Ortega said.
   
   The increase in grocery prices over the past few years has been driven by a variety of factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting supply chains and labor markets, Ortega said.
   
   Trump's hope to decrease food prices could also clash with his plans for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.
   
   The U.S. food industry relies heavily on migrant labor, including undocumented migrants, for jobs like harvesting and processing crops and meatpacking, Glauber pointed out.
   Replacing migrant workers with Americans or machines could add to the cost of food, he added.
   
   But the spike in grocery prices has been driven less by the cost of the products themselves but rather the costs of processing, packaging and transporting them, Ortega said.
   The bottom line: "I don't think we'll get back down to that level that we were seeing" in 2019, Glauber said.
   
   https://www.axios.com/2024/09/21/trump- … od-imports

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      wildernessposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      It kind of reminds me of Obama's promise to get ObamaCare passed...until he was elected.  Within hours of taking office he decided he would have to be re-elected for a second term to get the job done.
      
      Maybe it's like Obama's though process here?

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         Willowarborposted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Americans clearly want food costs lowered and they want it done very quickly.  I don't think he will have any grace on this issue.   He ran on the promise to lower these costs.  He was elected on that promise.  His tariff plans seem to be in direct opposition though.

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         Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Dan could be seen that way, but I see two different kinds of men here. One is a well-educated, intelligent individual who is hard to dispute; the other, while certainly very smart, possesses the unique strength needed for governance. In my view, Obama was a "Joe" — someone who excelled with words and had a gift for communication. He glided through his presidency, often leaning on a strong team of advisors. On the other hand, Trump seemed to rely more on his instincts, and while his team wasn't always the strongest, it worked in his favor during his first term. Ultimately, only time will tell how things unfold.

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            Willowarborposted 2 months agoin reply to this

            Yes, two different sorts of men. One brought affordable health Care to 45 million people.  Will the other be able to conquer the cost of milk?

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               wildernessposted 2 months agoin reply to this

               LOLOLOL  I had some of that "affordable health care" at one point.  A bronze plan, all I could afford, with a $5,000 deductible per person.  That was considered "affordable" for a family with an income of 1 1/2 near-minimum wage jobs.
               
               At his absolute worst, Trump cannot make milk unaffordable, but Obama did a pretty good job with his much touted Affordable Care Act.

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                  Willowarborposted 2 months agoin reply to this

                  Oh I'll be tracking those milk prices on day one of his administration.   How long do we give him to enact some sort of policy or action that has an appreciable effect on grocery prices? Keep in mind that he has told us he will do this very quickly.

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   Willowarborposted 2 months ago

   Donald Trump’s plan to lower grocery costs would actually increase them...
   
   Trump said Sept. 17 that his plan to lower grocery costs is to place tariffs on food imports — a policy economists say would do the opposite of his intended goal.
   
   In 2023, about 15% of the United States food supply was imported, according to the Food and Drug Administration. Certain categories of foods are imported at high rates, including 55% of the fresh fruit, 32% of the fresh vegetables, and 94% of the seafood Americans eat, according to the FDA.
   
   Because farmers and fishers cannot quickly ramp up the production of fruits, vegetables, and seafood, the cost of those goods would almost certainly go up if Trump placed tariffs on imports.
   
   “Importers will no doubt pass on the cost to consumers unless they have a reason to eat the cost themselves. As domestic suppliers are unlikely to be able to undercut them on price any time soon (America’s limited coffee farms, for instance, produce nowhere near the amount of coffee Americans drink), consumers are likely to foot the bill,” Stephen Craven, a former trade negotiator for the U.S. Department of Commerce.
   
   In 2017, when he was in the White House, Trump put a 9% tariff on imported washing machines. After that tariff was in place, the consumer price of washing machines rose 9%, according to Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan.
   
   “I’m exhausted even saying it, but blocking supply won’t reduce prices, and it’s not even close,” Wolfers wrote in a Sept. 18 post on X in response to Trump’s plan to put tariffs on imported food....
   
   https://pennsylvaniaindependent.com/eco … ease-them/

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      tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      Thanks for the research and providing the info. This topic and inflation itself will be what I am going to hold Trump accountable for in the future. The outlook is pretty foggy.

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         Willowarborposted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Absolutely.  I am hoping that folks will take that approach of gathering the data when we attempt to weigh the impact of presidential/ legislative action on our cost of living. 
         
         Trump has promised to lower grocery costs.  I hope everyone will keep an eye on the metrics.

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         Sharlee01posted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Tim, I feel the same. I just hope whatever direction he takes is good for the country. After all my research, I still only know a fraction of what his plans are, so I’m just hoping it works out. No cart before the horse.  I am all about stats as you seem to be.  This was one reason I voted for Trump. This could be an interesting thread, hope more will add some stats, not if come but factual.

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   Willowarborposted 2 months ago

   Does anyone know of the existence of a daily tracker for the average price of various food items?

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      tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

      The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) is a fantastic resource for consumer goods and more. You have to play with it to get used to how to obtain what you desire to know. I use to use it for automotive stuff when I worked.
      
      FRED economic data landing page
      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
      
      Landing page for milk
      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=milk%3Bprice
      
      
      Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food in U.S. City Average landing page
      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL
      
      Edit: The link next is what you most want. It is by gallon
      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000709112

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         Willowarborposted 2 months agoin reply to this

         Thank you!!  I was thinking you'd be able to help with this.  A great start for a zero point analysis

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            tsmogposted 2 months agoin reply to this

            

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