ahorseback: I have done the research and analysis of what is going on in the mid-east and have written many hubs on this subject. It's too bad HP won't let us link to our own hubs in these forums. I'm going to try to condense my hubs for you and others in this forum.
In order to understand what is going on today in the mid-east, one has to go back to before WWI. Before WWI, there was the Ottoman Empire that had lasted for over 600 years. As a result of the war, the British and the French had wiped out the empire. The empire included three Muslim factions: Shia, Sunni, and Kurds that still exist today. The British and the French divided the empire into zones of influence as a result of the Sykes Picot agreement. These zones did not take into account the religious or cultural faction of the region. it was done intentionally to create chaos, because oil had been discovered and they wanted to manipulate the people. Sometime later, the French and the British pulled out and they set up borders including what is now Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, and Iran without any regard for the ethnicity, religion or culture of the people living within those borders.
It is important to understand there is a difference between the Shia, Sunni, and Kurds as to who rules Islam. The shia believe, it should be someone who is a direct descendant of Mohammad. This person is called an Imam. The Sunni believe it should be someone with the power and wherewithal to lead Islam. This person is called a Caliph and rules a Caliphate, the same as the Ottoman Empire. The Kurds are mixture of both sects, including Christians. The Shia, Sunni's, and Kurds hate each other and are willing to die for their beliefs.
Iraq has a majority of Shia, and a minority of Sunni. Saddam Hussien was a Sunni who ruled with an iron fist. When he was taken out, the Shia took over Iraq. George W. told the conquered Sunni military to go home, and you get to keep your weapons. Those Sunni military became ISIS that wants to take the middle east back to the Ottoman Empire. The leader of ISIS is called a Caliphate.
Syria is ruled by a Shia dictator who rules a majority of a Sunni population. This is where ISIS is headquartered. The Kurds are sitting on the oil rich part of Iraq and Syria, We make nice to them, but everybody else wants their oil.
Iran is Shia and is ruled by an Imam. We are trying to cut a nuclear deal with them, but at the same time we want to take out the president of Syria who is also a Shia.
Saudi Arabia is Sunni, the same as ISIS, but we sell them F15's that are used to bomb the Shia and Kurds in Yemen. At the same time, we support the Kurds in Iraq and Syria.
The leader of ISIS is a Sunni who was locked up at Camp Bucca in Afghanistan. He and his fellow prisoners were plotting forming ISIS while they were in prison. However, he was let go, because they thought he was a model prisoner.
His goal as a Calphate was to start from one end of the mid-east and control the land mass, like they did in WWI and WWII. The Koran says, that in order to be a Caliph, you have to control contiguous land. We have denied him that right by bombing his territories that he controls.
The conflicts of interest are: Saudi Arabia are Sunni, but so are ISIS, but we sell military weapons to the Saudi's. Saudis use those weapons to take out the Shia and the Kurds.
Iran is Shia. We are trying to cut a nuclear deal with them, but want to take out the president of Syria, who is also a Shia.
During WWII, people wore uniforms. Countries were invaded and land mass was controlled until the enemy lost his will to fight. We are fighting guerrilla warfare, now it's called asymmetrical war. The people who live in these regions, do not recognize their borders and pay allegiance to their particular form of Islam. That's why they are refugees. They would rather leave the country, then be ruled by dictators who don't have the same believes as they do.
The western world makes the mistake of thinking they can democratize a 2,000 year old theocracy. If you are a Muslim, your daily life is ruled by the Koran, which is also the same as our bible and constitution at the same time. Just like our bible, it has passages that can be interpreted for good or evil. According to ISIS, it is following the Koran in accordance with the instructions it gives for creating a Caliph, which includes all the horrors they can place on their enemies.
Most of the the refugees that come here will practice the Koran and just like the Bible, they will find justification for good and bad. We are fooling ourselves if we think we can democratize them.
Obama has many conflicts in the mid-east, including Russia and Turkey. He has to tread lightly, and carry a big stick. ISIS wants us to send ground troops so that they can get us into another long term slog. Obama's objective is to deny them contiguous land, without it, the Caliphate cannot exist. That's why he is not sending ground troops. How do you fight people that don't wear uniforms and some are your allies and others are your enemies? It's too bad they don't wear uniforms that identify their allegiance to their particular sect. This is were the media and politicians are making a big mistake by lumping them into one big Muslim family that has all the same values and beliefs. When they talk about rebels and militia, they are doing a big disservice to the American people because the differences have lost their identity. They are not the same and do not have the same goals.
Our politicians and presidential candidates take a very simplistic few of the mid-east, but it is really a soup sandwich. They want to bomb everybody, but don't have a clue as to the dynamics of the region. Right now, there is a three way civil war going on among the Shia, Sunni, and the Kurds. And to make matters worse Turkey, and Russia have entered the fray. We base our aircraft in Turkey to fight ISIS. Turkey is supposed to be taking out ISIS, but instead, they are attacking their long time enemy, the Kurds. Russia is supporting the Shia president of Syria and protects him against the Sunni led ISIS. All of this would have never happened if George W. had not taken out Saddam Husien and created the vacuum that exists today. It caused an unleashing of the long term hatred of all of the factions.
Now put yourself in the place of this president, what would you do? Put yourself in the place of the refugees. Would you go to their country and be willing to covert to Islam? I don't think so...no more than they want to convert to Christianity. By the way, the Koran does recognize Jesus.
I hope, this has been of some value to the understanding of the mid-east. It is not a simple situation as the politicians and media would like you to believe.
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