When making predictions, who is more accurate, political pundits or meteorologist?
Political pundits and meteorologists love to dazzle their audiences with charts and satellite images, in an ongoing attempt to appear relevant and credible. However, we all know how wrong both groups can be in forecasting the weather or the political climate. So who do you feel is correct more often...the pundits or the meteorologists?
I would have to say meteorologists. They at least have science to guide them.
Plus there aren't too many meteorologists who are millionaires from feeding the masses scare and fear innuendos.
Yes, fear pays well. I'm thinking of selling survival gear for the people who are afraid anarchy is coming when the President "grabs their guns."
I think the difference is political pundits lie, whereas meteorologists guess. I'd say that a meteorologist has a better chance of correctly guessing than a political pundit has of turning a lie into a truth.
Great question! But not really fair to judge each as a group because most pundits have an axe to grind while most meteorologists are probably paid for their stage presence and likability (ratings). As a group they both suck and I'd say it is a toss up but one on one there are individual exceptions on both sides although probably not impressive enough to make a difference. Where I live the meteorologists are always predicting rain in spite of southerly dry air winds that soak it up when it gets here..they never learn.
I'd say Meterologists are far more credible. They non-partisan. They are using their training and whatever data they can obtain to predict something which will be helpful. And don't make the mistake that they're not pretty accurate. Most of their forecasts are pretty close to the mark. However, the isolated and quick forming storm cell, the tornado or waterspout might be generally predicted, but it would asking too much at this stage to say EXACTLY where, and EXACTLY what path it will traverse.
Political pundits or Met Forecasters - I'd go for the Met people every time.
I hate to admit it, but the meteorologist are more accurate, while the politicians have their own agenda at stake and often deliberately mislead the majority whenever it benefits them!
Well. interesting question. I think they are the same. Both have convinced themselves they are right.
Our weatherman makes every show about him and plays social media to the hilt. His favorite phrase is, "Even though the models show a storm, I'm not buying it." Both groups are dominated by mega egos.
I don't feel, I know. I read in a book, that the accuracy of all predictions is about 50%. The same as guessing.
You can't predict the future. We don't predict, we estimate. I wish I could tell you the name of that book that was exposing "expertise" in making any predictions, political or not, but I just don't remember.
Now I am armed with the fact that you can never trust any predictions, none whatsoever.
It goes like in this anecdote:
A potential employer asks a candidate for a job:
- Where do you yourself in five years?
- If you don't stop asking stupid questions, in prison!
I think whichever individuals of either type hit the right target with their dart board by chance. Where I live (Minnesota) I don't think our meteorologists could accurately forecast darkness at midnight, for example. (Really far off.)
Honestly, it's a tough call; they're both so famously wrong about things at the moment. Sorry!
"Accurately forecast darkness at midnight" is rich! Our local prognosticator makes all of the weather reports about him. It gets old quick.
Thanks for the compliments--both on 'forecasting darkness' and for selecting this as the "Best Answer". Many apologies to all of the hardworking meteorologists, including uncle Ray, out there, but results in MN have been random and leave me cold.
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