Who do you contend will win the 2016 United States presidency and why?
It's too early to tell right now.
However if we went with the two candidates leading the polls in their respective parties I believe Hilary Clinton would beat Donald Trump.
I believe it is highly unlikely that the general electorate would vote for someone who has extreme views on immigration or lacks experience legislating or holding any elected office.
Entrepreneurs are use to giving orders and having people follow those orders. It's my way or the highway! You can't simply "fire" senators or congressmen who disagree with you.
I also believe in a "general election" you'll see a bigger contrast on social issues such as a woman's right to choose, Plan Parenthood funding, Marriage Equality, raising the minimum wage, along with dealing with foreign policy matters and their leaders around the globe.
"I'm building a wall and Mexico is going to pay for it! I'm departing 11 million people who live in the U.S. illegally. I will destroy ISIS...etc
How? "You'll have to wait until I'm elected"
The "Tea Party" or extreme conservatives are very frustrated and want to blow up or shake up the way government operates. However in the general election most people aren't going to want to vote for someone with (no government experience) to lead the free world.
Established Republicans such as John Kasich or Marco Rubio would have a better chance of winning the hearts and minds of some liberals, minorities, independents, and some women voters. Although Rubio's penchant for wanting to go to war over just about everything and his belief that abortion should not be performed even if the mother's life is at risk will hurt him. However the biggest obstacle is Republican candidates outside of Trump and Carson are seen as "the establishment". The Tea Party doesn't want any candidate who would "compromise". They'd rather shut down the government if their demands aren't met. They feel the federal government is the enemy.
Ronald Reagan wouldn't win the Republican nomination as it is today!
I think - hope - after the circus leaves town the Republican nominee will be either Chris Christie or Rubio. Either would make it an interesting race.
Remember that the US got to this dismal place of decline and failure through the efforts of people in both parties that were full of political experience, holding prior political office. Those same politicians in congress created the immigration laws
I am still hoping Hillary is charged as she should be by the FBI. She didn't just lie to those four Benghazi victim's families & the US; she let them die for some still unanswered reason. Many of us aren't so stupid to be fooled; we have eyes &am
Entrepreneurs are accountable to their customers and stock holders, career politicians like Hillary are able to ignore the will of the people through bribes via government handouts under the cover of a fawning media.
I can't say who will win the presidency, but I can tell you who will lose in the election.
The American people will once again lose, because who ever wins the election will carry on the tradition of the goal of their party, perhaps with the exception of Donald Trump.
Look back at the history of the US for the last one hundred years, and you will see how neither party moved the country forward, and why the US has been in decline since the bogus oils shortages of the 1970s.
The Red and Blue of the American Flag doesn't run and neither do the colors of the democrat and republicans.
They should both had shades of purple, but instead they remain their full vibrant and unadulterated Blue and Red.
It's impossible to know whose going to end up on top because of the mood of the American people is quite different now than in the past, especially on the Republican side of the aisle.
So I'm hoping it's Ben Carson and I'll try to give some rationale, so here goes.
Republican's are feed up with the political class in Washington, they're tired of electing candidates who run on one platform but don't represent them when they're in office. The poll numbers seem to indicate that the political outsiders are not going away.
So between Trump and Carson I believe Carson will eventually prevail for a number of reasons.
1) Eventually Trumps reality TV style will wear thin
2) Carson is a man of character and I think most Republicans know it although not as many would say the same of Trump.
3) As the field narrows, trump's unfavorability ratings will hurt him, where Carson high ratings will gain him more support.
In the General Election the Republican's have an 85% chance of winning for two simple reasons.
1) Only once since WW2 has any party held the White House for 3 consecutive terms.
2) Obama has less than a 50% approval rating and it's not very likely to improve anytime soon.
If Hillary is the Democratic nominee, Carson polls favorably against her.She has a lot to defend, a long sorted career as a corrupt Washington insider. If Carson can project himself as someone who can unite the country and a competent alternative to business as usual, he can win and I think he's capable of doing just that.
Until both parties begin to start working together to some extent instead of consistently against each other, trying to make the other look bad and come to some form of resolution on many of the major issues we have, it really doesn't matter who is in office, our country will continue it's downward spiral.
Clinton will win. The economy will hold until she is put in office. Trump is the American "Hitler"; an outside guy who is charismatic but who lacks the traditional political acumen. The GOP has basically given up on 2016 in my opinion.
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