Who Will Win the 2018 Midterms?

1. 86

   My Esotericposted 6 years ago

   Here are my prognostications under various scenarios.  For full disclosure, I did OK in 2014 but blew it in 2016 (I totally missed the white dissatisfaction)
   
   I have lots of variables I can tweak, which I will.  But, assume first I set everything at neutral, i.e. no weighting except for what the last voting cycle revealed.  I'll only give the Democratic predicted wins. Remember, they need 218 to gain the majority.
   
   1.  No Weighting: Ds win 239
   2.  20% of blacks don't vote or vote for Rs: Ds win 237
   3.  50% of Latinos stay home or vote of Rs: Ds win 214
   4.  30% if Others stay home: Ds win 204
   5.  10% more white women vote for Ds: Ds win 214
   6.  10% more youth vote for Ds: Ds win - 219
   7.  10% more blacks vote D: Ds win 221
   8.  10% more other vote for Ds; Ds win 226
   9.  10% more Latinos vote for Ds:  Ds win 229
   
   SADLY, I see Ds only getting 49 seats in the Senate.  That can change if women vote for Ds in much larger numbers, especially in North Dakota and Tennessee AND Latinos vote well above historic turnout levels in Texas.  In that case, I see Ds ending up with 51 seats.

   replyreport
   1. 0

      PrettyPantherposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      There are some positive indicators for Ds today. It's a tight race in Missouri and, surprisingly, Tennessee.

      replyreport
      1. 86

         My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         Yes, fingers crossed.

         replyreport
   2. 69

      Ken Burgessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      Wow, what a perfect example of how the Progressive Liberal mind likes to break things down.
      
      White, Black, Male, Female, Hispanic, Others... nice, the more you divide, the more you play the blame game, the more the elites, the corporations, the corrupt can control the country and strip people of their wealth, liberty, and freedoms.
      
      
      Funny how we went from Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama... yet nothing changed, NAFTA remained unchanged despite how it was a hot topic issue from the moment it passed,  how we handle illegal immigration never gets changed because there are many corporations out there getting rich off of hiring illegals over paying union workers, and corporations control the politicians who give people lip service, those wars Obama promised to end... never did. Etc. Etc.

      replyreport
      1. 86

         My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         Hey, what can I say.  I am an analyst and so I take a detailed look at the issue.  Men, women, black, white, straight, gay may be identical with each other to you, but in the REAL world, that isn't how it works.
         
         Actually. unless those corporations are agricultural, your statement about illegals is FALSE.  I am confident you can provide zero statistics to back up your claim.
         
         Actually. you bringing in union workers is a red herring.  In the private sector, union members now, thanks to people like you, comprise only about 10% of the workforce.
         
         Trump promised the same thing about wars, they haven't ended either, have they.  Nor is his promised border wall going to happen and even if it did, his promise that Mexico will pay for it was false.  He has lied about so many things so often that Trump has NO IDEA what truth is.

         replyreport
         1. 69

            Ken Burgessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            
            
            https://www.texastribune.org/2016/12/16 … ound-econ/
            
            https://www.angieslist.com/articles/bus … orkers.htm
            
            https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/2-com … -2-million
            
            Just a small sampling of the articles out there...

            replyreport
            1. 86

               My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               Anecdotes do not make statistics do they?  Show me studies (or links to studies) that looked at large samples.

               replyreport
               1. 76

                  wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                  "Thanks to a new study out from the Pew Hispanic Center today, we now have a solid citation for there being more than 8 million illegal foreign workers currently holding U.S. jobs!
                  
                  Using the largest estimate of illegal workers in agriculture jobs, that means more than 7 million illegal aliens are holding down jobs in the construction, manufacturing and service industries.
                  
                  Those are the jobs being sought (yes, this is the same number) by more than 7 million unemployed American workers who have no more than a high school education."
                  
                  https://www.numbersusa.com/content/nusa … -7-million
                  
                  "At the DNC's summer meeting in Chicago, a resolution was brought up "opposing the cruel immigration policies of the Trump administration."
                  
                  "I'd like to use this opportunity to tell you what happened in my own union just a few weeks ago. My union represents workers in a meatpacking plant in Salem, Ohio," the DNC member said. "One day our members went to work processing bacon as they do every day and ICE showed up with semiautomatic weapons, with guns pointed at peoples' faces, with a helicopter hovering overhead and 146 people were detained. 80 of them are still in detention, some of them were detained for the crime of not bringing their papers to work that day.""
                  
                  https://freebeacon.com/politics/dnc-mem … nts-union/
                  
                  "But with a receding membership in recent times, unions are aggressively targeting the 22 million immigrant workers in the country, regardless of legal status, to join their ranks."
                  
                  "Other immigrant-friendly unions have similar stances to United Here, with the AFL-CIO adopting a position in 2000 “calling for blanket amnesty for undocumented immigrants and condemning immigration raids against organizing workers,” Talking Points Memo reported."
                  
                  https://thinkprogress.org/labor-unions- … 76ac69da2/

                  replyreport
                  1. 86

                     My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                     Now, out of those 7 million Americans looking for work at the moment the statistics were taken, roughly 6 million had been laid-off, fired, quit, or just joined the labor force; and that figure (called 'churn') appears to be constant over time.  That leaves you 1 million Americans looking for work who don't fall into any of those reasons for being out of work. 
                     
                     That 1 million, which represents.0.6% of the labor force, are the ones potentially suffering because illegals MIGHT have jobs they want.  So why not the other 6 million? Because they are going to be out of work regardless of whether there are illegals working or not.  People get laid off every day; people get fired every day; people get old enough to join the workforce everyday; people who have left the workforce return to it everyday.  The fact that an illegal may or not have a job is independent of those factors.
                     
                     Now, out of that 1 million, how many would work in the fields picking cabbage?  Not many, which is the problem farmers are facing.
                     
                     Out of those 1 million, how many have the skills or desires to work construction jobs out in the hot, humid or cold, windy air?  Again, not that many.
                     
                     As to your sources, the first one is a Glenn Beck associated, anti-union, right-wing opinion piece - hardly a authoritative source
                     
                     The second one is just a right-wing propaganda outlet which I really don't want to call 'media'
                     
                     The third has much the same problem as the second except it comes from the left.  Also, the operative phrase in that paragraph is "But with receding membership ..."  Why wouldn't they target immigrants?  They were remiss if they hadn't done it before.

                     replyreport
                     1. 76

                        wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                        Real simple solution to the perceived labor shortage: eliminate 10% of the people from welfare rolls.  You'll get all the workers you want.

                        replyreport
                  2. 86

                     My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                     This doesn't get to illegals replacing American workers, but it does tell you what will happen if 1) 50% of illegals in agriculture are deported and 2) if 100% are deported.
                     
                     https://www.cbsnews.com/news/illegal-im … ers-taxes/
                     
                     From another source - "“We found little to no negative effects on overall wages and employment of native-born workers in the longer term,” said Francine D. Blau, an economics professor at Cornell University who led the group that produced the 550-page report."
                     
                     "“The prospects for long-run economic growth in the United States would be considerably dimmed without the contributions of high-skilled immigrants,” the report said. "
                     
                     https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/22/us/i … finds.html

                     replyreport
                     1. 76

                        wildernessposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                        "This doesn't get to illegals replacing American workers, but it does tell you what will happen if 1) 50% of illegals in agriculture are deported and 2) if 100% are deported."
                        
                        Of course not - both work the same job at the same time, right?  There are certainly no American workers out of a job because 8 million illegal aliens are working them instead!
                        
                        Sorry, Esoteric - I've seen what happens when ICE visits a construction site and workers vanish.  When the employer of those illegals are forced to hire American to complete their contract.  And it says a lot about whether Americans are out of a job because illegals are working them instead.
                        
                        "“The prospects for long-run economic growth in the United States would be considerably dimmed without the contributions of high-skilled immigrants,” the report said. "
                        
                        I DO tend to agree with this to a large extent.  Of course, "high-skilled immigrants" has zero in common with illegal aliens, now do they?

                        replyreport
   3. 86

      My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      SO, how did I do?
      
      HOUSE - My model (which was conservative in its variable choices) indicated Ds will win 228 seats.  So far, they have 225 seats with 10 more results to be announced (Ds are expected to win most of those)
      
      SENATE - I had Ds gaining 1 seat (leaving them with 49 seats).  Right now they have 46 with 3 races still not called.  It almost seems certain that AZ will go to the Ds.  FL is in recount with R's a tiny bit ahead.  MS will go to recount as well with the R an almost certain winner.
      
      So that leaves us with Ds having 47 seats with one up in the air.

      replyreport
      1. 60

         Randy Godwinposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         Pretty close to your projections, Eso!

         replyreport
         1. 0

            PrettyPantherposted 6 years agoin reply to this

            Hey, Randy, long time no see. Where ya been? Glad to see you're back.

            replyreport
            1. 60

               Randy Godwinposted 6 years agoin reply to this

               Serving a 3 month forum ban for insulting Trumpsters, PP. It was well worth it..... 

               replyreport
               1. 0

                  PrettyPantherposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                  Three months! Wow, that must have been some insult, especially since we're repeatedly being told that Hubpages' liberal management silences only conservative voices. ;-)

                  replyreport
                  1. 60

                     Randy Godwinposted 6 years agoin reply to this

                     Yes, I repeatedly asked a Trumpster what he did for a living and he apparently took umbrage at my attempts. I suppose that counts as a personal attack of some sort..... 

                     replyreport
      2. 86

         My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

         Thanks Randy,
         
         It averaged out pretty close.  But behind that total is picking a D 11 times when a R won and picking a R 16 times when a D won.  As I said, I kept my variables at the low end of the range in picking Ds.

         replyreport
2. 0

   Ed Fisherposted 6 years ago

   

   replyreport
   1. 86

      My Esotericposted 6 years agoin reply to this

      Oooh, picture him naked - OK, don't it's too repulsive.  #TheKingHasNoCothes

      replyreport