Reality: Are New York's Tax Payers Leaving

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   GA Andersonposted 5 years ago

   Conservative media is promoting the line that taxpayers are fleeing Democrat-run cities. So I asked my friend Google if this was true.
   
   I started with New York.
   
   Are Newe Yorkers leaving New York
   
   It seems the answer to that question is yes.
   
   "In 2018, the New York metropolitan area was losing 100 people per day on average, most of it to Florida. Now it is closer to 270 per day.
   
   The reduction of the state and local tax deduction doubled the percentage rate of taxation for those living in the city. The deduction is now limited to $10,000 for state and local taxes."
   
   The other sources in the search had similar comments. So, I asked about Seattle.
   
   Are taxpayers leaving Seattle
   
   It seems Seattle's problem is with its business communiy
   
   Coronavirus pandemic or not, an investment advisory company is leaving the cultural unrest in Seattle and moving its headquarters to Phoenix’s Camelback Corridor.
   
   ” … The unrest that has taken place in the city of Seattle … there is really is not a downtown business community today,” Smead Capital Management. President and CEO Cole Smead told KTAR News 92.3 FM.
   
   Smead said that although taxes in Seattle are lower, candidate recruitment is harder and the cost of living within the city is more expensive than Phoenix.
   
   “We’re hearing rumors of 40-story buildings that will be only 20-percent occupied by October,” Smead said.
   
   “My biggest concern for Seattle was what the business community is going to come back to, and what kind of businesses are going to come back for customers.”
   
   He found that metro Phoenix offers a better quality of life.
   
   “My colleagues can pick the socio-economic rung of life that they want … live their lives, build their households and have a family if they’d like,” Smead said.
   
   “Where we’re coming from just wasn’t like that.”
   
   Smead added his employees will take precautions to protect themselves from COVID-19 during their move."
   
   I wonder if Minneapolis has a similar problem?
   
   Are Minneapolis Taxpayers leaving?
   
   "Minnesotans are leaving for lower-tax states. On net, in every year from 2001 through 2016, Minnesota lost residents to other states. This was a source of much discussion in our state, prompting fears of slower economic growth and a lost congressional seat.
   
   So there was some celebration when, in 2017 and 2018, the Census Bureau found that there were net in-migrations of people into Minnesota from other states, in the net amounts of 7,941 and 6,769, respectively.
   
   Unfortunately, that uptick of migration into Minnesota has proved to be temporary. Figures for 2019 show that in-migration dropped essentially to zero, a positive net of 65 people. And another new data set provides more cause for concern.
   
   The Internal Revenue Service maintains a database that allows us to track the movements of individuals between states. Unlike the Census Bureau’s numbers, the IRS database supplies both age and income information about interstate migrants. This gives us a picture of which people we are attracting, and which are we driving away.
   
   As the Center of the American Experiment noted in our previous report “Minnesotans on the Move to Lower Tax States,” the IRS database showed that our state had been losing residents to other states, on net, since 2001-02 — matching the Census Bureau numbers. It also showed that, as of 2016, the outflow of residents went overwhelmingly to lower-tax states.
   
   The IRS database has just been updated with the addition of two more years of statistics on the movement of taxpayers across state lines, covering the years 2016-17 and 2017-18. Unfortunately, these new data show that the trend that existed as of 2016 continues: Minnesota gains low-income residents from other states, but loses middle- and upper-income residents, generally to lower-tax states."
   
   I suppose I should also check Republican-run cities to see if they are having the same problem . . .
   
   Is there a correlation here?
   
   GA

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      Credence2posted 5 years agoin reply to this

      "I suppose I should also check Republican-run cities to see if they are having the same problem . . . "
      
      I would be interested in your findings...

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         GA Andersonposted 5 years agoin reply to this

         My "findings" will probably disappoint you Cred.
         
         Using this list: List of mayors of the 50 largest cities in the United States, I didn't find any cities with the instability-driven exodus of the above Democrat-run cities mentioned.
         
         The top five Republican-led cities are: San Diego, Jacksonville, Fort Worth, El Paso, and Oklahoma City. None of which have made the news for the reasons the previously mentioned cities have.
         
         Fort Worth is one of the fastest-growing cities, while El Paso is losing folks, but the reasons cited are related to poor job and social opportunities not the problems cited as reasons for the Democrat cities' exodus.
         
         Jacksonville has 50% more people coming than leaving. Oklahoma City has a net outflow,but that has been attributed to poor economics and job opportunities related to the oil industry.
         
         I probably didn't dig as deeply as I should, but none of the Republican-led cities in that Top 50 list made the 25 Worst Cities by Crime Statistics lists,and none had comparable crime statistics to the Democrat-led cities previously mentioned.
         
         GA

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