Economic News

1. 94

   wildernessposted 3 years ago

   I've seen reports that the economy grew at a 33.1% during the third quarter this year - the fastest growth ever recorded in our history, and something that will likely help Trump in the election.
   
   But I have yet to see it on the nightly news.  Did I miss it or (say it quietly) do our newscasts carry a political bias, not reporting anything that might help conservatives? Say it isn't so!
   
   https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/economy/ … d-quarter/

   replyreport
   1. 83

      GA Andersonposted 3 years agoin reply to this

      Yes, it is a great and history-making number, but, it is also a number made possible by the GDP decline due to the Covid-19 lockdowns.
      
      I doubt the same number would be possible without the inclusion of the pandemic effects.
      
      Also, in the midst of this pandemic and its disruption to folks' lives, I don't think this number means beans to the electorate.
      
      GA

      replyreport
      1. 60

         Kayode Doyakposted 3 years agoin reply to this

         I hope you don’t think that’s reason for the nightly news to not even report it.
         
         If they did report on it I’d bet it would be exactly like your comment. If they can’t say something bad they say nothing at all.

         replyreport
         1. 83

            GA Andersonposted 3 years agoin reply to this

            Nope, I would be more likely to believe the media isn't covering, (if they aren't), because it is a plus for Pres. Trump.;
            
            Also, my comment wasn't intended to say something "bad" about the numbers, it is just my opinion of why the GDP growth was so huge. There is no other rationale for a number roughly eight to ten times higher than any of our best years.
            
            GA

            replyreport
            1. 60

               Kayode Doyakposted 3 years agoin reply to this

               No other rationale? So what! No matter what rationale you use it is tremendous news when the “experts” were predicting a decline! Nobody predicted anything like this with any kind of rational and your comment doesn’t diminish the importance of this number at all though it sounds to me that was your intent.

               replyreport
               1. 83

                  GA Andersonposted 3 years agoin reply to this

                  Of course, you can take my explanation any way you please. As we are speaking of "sounds like," yours sounds like an ardent Trump supporter that doesn't care about anything but what can be made of a point.
                  
                  I haven't looked, but maybe you have. Has there ever been any other historical increase in GDP this large that wasn't attributable to some anomaly like this pandemic?
                  
                  Is my reasoning wrong? "So what" is not a rational support for anything.  The "what" matters, and if it doesn't, then I would question some priorities. Is effect more important than truth? Not to me. How about you?
                  
                  However, you are partially right. Relative to it being a kudos to Pres. Trump, my comment was intended to diminish the importance of the number, but simply because that importance needed to be diminished to be realistically understood.
                  
                  If you want to give Pres. Trump accolades and applause for that number, as if it the magical consequences of his actions, then go for it. That is certainly within your prerogative. But it is not within your prerogative to expect others to accept your interpretation.
                  
                  GA

                  replyreport
      2. 94

         wildernessposted 3 years agoin reply to this

         You're absolutely correct; it is the result of the COVID, and the gradual ending of restrictions.
         
         But I don't think you're right about it not mattering...if the people know about it.  It is a reminder of what we had a year ago, and that meant a great deal to a lot of people.

         replyreport
   2. 86

      crankaliciousposted 3 years agoin reply to this

      You can't be serious, can you? The reason it grew was because the economy shrunk by so much. To laud that growth is just math illiteracy. It's certainly good news that it rebounded, but that's all it is, a rebound. The economy is still smaller than it was. I believe the economy has contracted 3.5% or so from pre-COVID.

      replyreport
      1. 94

         wildernessposted 3 years agoin reply to this

         LOL  Will you say the same about Obama's numbers soon after the end of the recession?  You know, after the economy had shrunk so much it didn't mean anything?
         
         I doubt it - you're still giving Obama credit for the numbers Trump's policies and changes produced!
         
         Yeah, I think it's still smaller, and that number is somewhere around 3%. 
         
         But I won't give Trump credit this time - that would go to the governors that relaxed the shutdown.

         replyreport
   3. 89

      Sharlee01posted 3 years agoin reply to this

      Many economists have stated the "Trump economy was lying there just waiting to come back to an extent. Many saying his booming economy pre-pandemic will save us from depression.  Some claimed we would have a deep recession. It would appear those that felt Trump's economy was just resting and would rebound were correct. We are having a V-shaped recovery. I was so pleased to see 33% growth. 
      
      I think it was despicable of the media to suppressed such positive news. But this kind of news does not support the "dark winter", and all that gloom and doom that has been predicted for us all.
      
      Not sure it would have gleaned more votes for Trump. Seems many have already voted, and most already know who they will vote for.
      
      Our media is far beyond being called just bias... In my view, much of our current media is sheer propaganda, that supports a seriously flawed Democratic party.
      
      Trump predicted this quarter months ago, as well as V-shaped recovery ... He was ridiculed for his lofty prediction --- Just saying https://www.newsweek.com/trump-us-econo … on-1520226

      replyreport
      1. 83

         GA Andersonposted 3 years agoin reply to this

         What do you think of the folks that are describing the recovery as more of a "K" than a "V." As in it is a "V" for the monied, but a "K" for the average Joe that is still out of work, or working a reduced schedule?
         
         Joe Blow concerned about his 401K might be seeing that "V," but John Doe working at the airport is still wondering how he will make rent this month.
         
         Jane Doe, the small business owner that received help might be seeing that "V" because of the monetary help she received, but Nancy Doe, her furloughed employee is still stressing how she will make rent this month.
         
         What are your thoughts on the reality of the "K" recovery?
         
         GA

         replyreport
         1. 89

            Sharlee01posted 3 years agoin reply to this

            You are determined to make me do my homework, and step out with an opinion.
            
            As you know, the GDP is our monetary or market value, of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders for quarters. It's really a broad measure of overall domestic production, just a function to keep a comprehensive scorecard of economic health.
            
            The U.S. economy showed resilience in the third quarter, due to sales and growth powering higher despite the persistent coronavirus pandemic and a lack of another stimulus package. Even with increased uncertainty about the future and Congress' inability to pass another spending package to help struggling small businesses and unemployed workers. The GDP was outstanding, and not expected by many economists.
            
            In my opinion, the Trump economy is sleeping at this point, and just starting to come back. Living in Michigan I can tell you the first industry that our Gov opened was the auto industry. Which this quarter showed good numbers in sales. I would think much of the GDP this last quarter is representing manufacturing and retail.
            
            In the third quarter, Americans increased their spending significantly, especially on cars, furniture, home renovations, electronics, and spent big at big box retail stores, and online retail sored.
            In this last quarter, it was apparent American's were not afraid to spend money. One could guess the stimulus packages offered false confidence or one could say many had confidence in the current administration. The economist is all over the place with opinions on why we had such a good third quarter.
            
            We can surmise some citizens are not feeling the V comeback, and that would be expected. We have a three-tiered society, this is not new or caused by our current health crisis.  It is obvious many are hurting, and need help. One could say, we need to provide stimulus quickly, others say we need to just get the country open 100%. I think we need both if we want our economy to thrive as it clearly was thriving.
            
            This big bounce may be mechanical, and the road ahead if not handled well, will be more difficult I would predict. The K recovery is evident if we don't open up the country soon.   We are sitting on a good economy it just needs to be open. We need to protect our vulnerable from the virus and continue mitigations with an open economy to help
            prevent a recession. 
            
            I feel if Trump wins we can depend on a V shape recovery, he is in no way afraid of going after it. And at this point with this kind of crisis, in my view, we need a bold plan. Not a plan to raise taxes, spend on unnecessary projects, you get the picture...

            replyreport
            1. 83

               GA Andersonposted 3 years agoin reply to this

               Well damn Sharlee. I may have made you work, but it wasn't for a lost effort.
               
               Good job. I like your opinion and explanation. Especially this part:
               
               "This big bounce may be mechanical, and the road ahead if not handled well, will be more difficult I would predict. The K recovery is evident if we don't open up the country soon.   We are sitting on a good economy it just needs to be open. We need to protect our vulnerable from the virus and continue mitigations with an open economy to help
               prevent a recession. "
               
               I think that is a good description of the situation. "Mechanical." Relative to our nation's economy—as measured by GDP numbers, I think we will have a "V" recovery. But, as an economic measure relative to our citizens' economies I think "K" is a more accurate description.
               
               GA

               replyreport
               1. 89

                  Sharlee01posted 3 years agoin reply to this

                  With our current capitalistic set up I agree some will "feel" a  K recovery. However, we need more to feel that V, to get the country back on track.  And hopefully, as the year goes on more citizens will catch up.

                  replyreport
         2. 89

            Sharlee01posted 3 years agoin reply to this

            GA, Just a follow up on our conversation in regard to V or K recovery. Is this not a lighter subject than the current election insanity? LOL
            
              The job numbers are in and give some further support for a  V recovery.
            The nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 and the unemployment rate was at 6.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a payroll gain of 530,000 and an unemployment rate of 7.7% a touch lower than the September level of 7.9%.
            
            With Republicans holding the Senate we can perhaps look for a stable stock market and a continuation of that K recovery. Keep your fingers crossed.
            
            Let me add a bit of news from my state of Michigan, yesterday our Governor addressed our COVID spike. (on a daily basis  for the past two weeks we have shown infection spikes that double our very worse numbers of the pandemic)  She feels we need no further lockdowns and need to continue bringing our state back to a full opening. A buck-up speech... Before the election, she forecasted another lockdown due to the spikes. Go figure, so many of us here in Michigan knew her draconian mitigations were politically motivated. However, I am so relieved we are headed back to a full opening, and a bit more normal lives.
            
            Now that the election is over, and if other Dem states follow Whitmer's attitude the V recovery has a better chance. 
            
            I mean would Biden want to walk into a poor economy or to the Trump economy that was for a while taking a nap? I am pulling for a speedy recovery.

            replyreport
            1. 86

               crankaliciousposted 3 years agoin reply to this

               We should be clear, if there are more lockdowns, it's not because of the politicians. It's because of people's behavior. More restrictions seem inevitable. Or, we can just let the spike continue until death rates start to climb and there's panic. Or we can just ignore it and let people die.
               
               Here in Colorado, we've gone to "Safer at Home" status, which is one step away from a lockdown. So, the governor is trying to give everyone the freedom to do the right thing. If we don't do the right thing, schools and businesses are going to close.
               
               The holidays are really going to be awful because people just will not stay away from each other.

               replyreport
               1. 94

                  wildernessposted 3 years agoin reply to this

                  Maybe I'm just jaded from the politics recently, but my prediction is there will be precious few additional lockdowns in any state.  The virus will continue to worsen until we get a vaccine, but there is no longer any reason to harm the economy with lockdowns; Trump has lost and the "ends" have been met.  (Not to insinuate the first round of lockdowns had economic failure as an goal, for it most certainly did not.)

                  replyreport
                  1. 86

                     crankaliciousposted 3 years agoin reply to this

                     I hope you are wrong.
                     
                     One thing that might reduce spread is fewer protests and fewer super-spreader events.
                     
                     Will we see more mask-wearing or less?
                     
                     If we have a lockdown, it should be for two weeks and then lifted. That's probably what I would do. Call for a lockdown, but for a specified amount of time to slow the spread. From what I've seen, many hospitals are overflowing. And I saw that in Idaho, they had their highest number of cases recently.

                     replyreport
                  2. 89

                     Sharlee01posted 3 years agoin reply to this

                     I agree. It was laughable to watch Gov Whiter walk it all back "we did a great job of flattening the curve, and know our hospitals are doing well even with the increase in cases, the mortality rate is low, and we have great therapeutic which is shortening hospital stays, we will shortly have a vaccine" Blah Blah Blah... I agree with you many better get ready for the "time to buck up speech".
                     
                     I would think more would note that this virus although spreading very easily, is not as deadly.

                     replyreport
               2. 89

                  Sharlee01posted 3 years agoin reply to this

                  The governor of Michigan addressed the increase in cases and a decline in death rate as well as no problems with hospital overloads, as well as shorter required stays due to therapeutics. She felt lockdowns were not necessary at this point.  Our infection stats are the highest they have ever been more than double of what they were in the very worse part of the pandemic.  She at this point appears to be concentrating on the economy.

                  replyreport
2. 0

   PrettyPantherposted 3 years ago

   Geez, people, the media did not "suppress" this news. I heard about it and I do not read of watch right-wing news media.
   
   What, pray tell, made you believe that this information was not reported? I saw it on NPR a couple of days ago.

   replyreport
   1. 94

      wildernessposted 3 years agoin reply to this

      I haven't seen it on the nightly news, that's all.  And thought that rather surprising, given the enormity of the rise. 
      
      Didn't mean to indicate that it was "suppressed" - ABC didn't send mafia goons to threaten the other networks to remain silent.  But none of the big media sources appear to have reported it either, at least not on their primary news outlets.  Meaning the evening news, where I would certainly have expected such news to appear.
      
      Why do you think the biggest economic news since ever was not reported, with much ballyhoo, on mainstream TV?

      replyreport
      1. 0

         PrettyPantherposted 3 years agoin reply to this

         Because it isn't terribly meaningful given the totality of circumstances?

         replyreport
         1. 94

            wildernessposted 3 years agoin reply to this

            The biggest economic gain in history isn't "meaningful"?  Perhaps not to those not wishing to see it as an aid in ejecting Trump, but to most of us, and particularly to those wanting to work rather than lose everything, it is very "meaningful".

            replyreport