EUROPE Published 9 hours ago Nov
Ukraine says Russia amassed 100K troops near the border, Blinken raises 'real concerns' of invasion Satellite images released Nov. 8 showed an estimated 90,000 troops at the border
Russia --- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has claimed that Russia amassed nearly 100,000 troops near his country’s border as concerns over an invasion continue to mount. American officials consulted European allies on the situation, warning that Russia could attempt to invade the country in the near future.
I will now add Conflict to my four C's that will derail Bidens presidency.
Cost -- Crime - CRT - COVID - and now Conflicts...
Satellite images released Nov. 8 showed an estimated 90,000 Russian troops gathered at the Ukrainian border. (WOW, that's a lot of troops! ) This report prompted House Republicans to petition President Biden to deploy troops to the region. Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told Fox News correspondent Jacqui Heinrich that Russia’s recent movements are a continuation of "what started back in April."
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken briefly discussed the situation at the Ukrainian border during a joint strategic dialogue last week, warning that Russia needs to avoid making "a serious mistake."
"We're very concerned about some of the irregular movements of forces that we see on Ukraine's borders," Blinken said Friday. "I can't speak to Russia's intentions. We don't know what they are, but we do know that we've seen in the past Russia mass forces on Ukraine's borders."
Blinken warned that Russia could claim "some kind of provocation" and then invade, following a plan that led them to establish control of Crimea in 2014. The U.S. remains in "close consultation" with its European allies as it continues to monitor the situation. "I can just say that based on the past, we have real concerns about what we’re seeing in the present," Blinken explained. "And it would be a serious mistake for Russia to engage in a repeat of what it did in 2014."
Boy, when it rains it pours... Lots of foreign policy problems are brewing. But this is a biggie...
This administration has a poor record of handling any problems that come their way. As a rule, they have taken the option to ignore any and all problems. As a rule, they opt for the strategy of just hoping the problem will just go away.
So, will Russia just pick up their toys and go home?
Do you feel confident in our current administration to handle Russia and its aggressions at Ukraine's borders?
One last question --- Do you think during Biden's presidency we will see more aggression from our long-time foes? If so why?
I will now add Conflict to the C's that will derail Bidens presidency. Cost - inflation -- CTR -- COVID -- Crime -- and now Conflict
whoever is running the presidency/vice presidency will tell Biden to not lift a finger.
This makes sense if China is looking to invade Taiwan...
Russia builds up its forces and that gets America to move assets to the European front, and while deployed there China invades Taiwan.
Russia & China combined outnumber American forces 3 to 1.
American technology has essentially been duplicated by China, so there will be no edge there if conflict breaks out... in addition to the fact that both Russia and China are in their own backyards/border nations... America would have to cross oceans to supply its troops.
Lets not forget China builds half the equipment our military uses in everything from Jets to Tanks to Computers. China will find it far easier to fix their military assets and build new ones than America.
There is a good chance that China makes a move or that both China and Russia do... what can America do about it?
Both China and Russia make what sort of a move??
You have said all I have been thinking about and trying to not think about. But, I agree at this point China and Russia are holding all the cards.
What scares me most is that at this time we have a very weak president in the White House. Taking this into account, I would think China and Russia see there is no time better to make moves in their own interests. I would think Ukraine and Taiwan are in big trouble.
Kathryn, what d'ya mean "to not lift a finger"? D'you or are you supporting Russia to invade Ukraine?
As far as i read from publicly available intelligence info, the 41st army was transfered from central Russia to Jelnja in the Smolensk district. This is roughly half way between Moscow and Minsk (Belarus). Still more than 100 km away from the Belarus border and more than 300 km away from the closest Ukraine border.
There may be speculation on why the 41st army was moved west, but i can´t see any threat to the Ukraine. What is all this media hype about? And what does this have to do with potential weakness in global policies of the current US administration?
Look at the map, borders should be clearly visible. I would speculate that Putin is telling his buddy Lukashenko something.
Your map doesn't show the Russian military near Kursk.
"Meanwhile, a new analysis by Jane’s on Monday reveals that equipment from Russia’s 4th Tank Division has been moved to areas around Bryansk and Kursk close to Ukraine's northern border. The units are equipped with T-80U main battle tanks and self-propelled artillery.
Elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army have also been spotted in the area. The army “has been designed to conduct operations at every level of combat from counterinsurgency to mechanized warfare,” Jane's analysis reported. “It is usually the first to receive the latest equipment and is also seen as the primary formation for the testing of new equipment and tactics.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/0 … ary-518337
Many Ukrainians here and in Ukraine are very stressed about the Russians massing on the boarder. Things would be very different from their other attempted invasion in 2014. The Ukrainian military is now much larger, stronger and better equipped. Reserves are being called up right now. It doesn't make any sense. Russia would experience significant losses. Many wonder if they are doing this to deflect attention from something else they are doing.
In my view, we will see many world leaders taking advantage of the weak leadership we have at this point. This kind of governing, as a rule, leads to problems for our foreign allies. I think Russia and China will work quickly and aggressively in regard to Ukraine and Taiwan. They see the US in turmoil and that we at this point have disfunction in the leadership. Why would they not take great advantage of this?
Russia would not send 100,000 troops to the Ukraine border for nothing. The moment Biden walked into the White House Russia started putting troops back on Ukraine's border. Under Trump, I don't think I read or heard that Russia put troops on the Ukraine border.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles … e-invasion
What is NATO's response to Russian military movements? Have European countries massed troops in the Ukraine or anywhere the Russian buildup? Seems I have heard requests that the US close European military bases - is Europe taking on the job of protecting itself or just depending on the US to do it for them?
NATO's response was --- Here it is .
"BRUSSELS, Nov 15 (Reuters) - NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia on Monday that the western military alliance was standing by Ukraine amid a large and unusual concentration of Russian troops on Ukraine's borders."
What if China and Russia sufficiently coordinated with one another to engage in simultaneous hostilities in the Pacific and in Europe?
https://www.rt.com/russia/531965-russia … e-success/
Russia has never posed a legitimate threat alone.
Germany, France, Poland and the United Kingdom will fight with the USA giving support. In most conventional scenarios, even the European allies alone would give NATO a tremendous medium term advantage over the Russians; Russia might take parts of the Baltics, but it would suffer heavily under NATO airpower, and likely couldn’t hold stolen territory for long. The U.S. nuclear capability would provide insurance against a Russian decision to employ tactical or strategic nuclear weapons.
Russia may however be willing to make strong gestures or even engage in a small conflict, if that would cause enough of a distraction to allow China to pull off its take-over of Taiwan.
Taiwan leads the world in the manufacturing of semiconductors, from the simplest for household appliances to the most sophisticated for cell phones and electric cars. It currently dominates with over 30% of the global market, and makes up 70% of America's Market (consumption).
If Taiwan falls to China, not only will China control over 50% of the worlds semiconductor production capability, it would cripple America.
To make matters worse, China provides another 5% of America's market and Samsung another 20%... and most likely if China is willing to take Taiwan with force, its probably willing to lock down the trade routes leading from South Korea to the US... meaning America will have no access to semiconductors critical to military equipment.
Russia is not a real threat to America... other than the risk that some rogue element launches off some Nukes.
China on the other hand could cripple America with limited military effort.
After all, in addition to what I laid out regarding Semiconductors, just about everything in America is 'Made in China" these days.
This sounds pretty bad. Are we actually at China's mercy, which they have none?
Don't you think that if China were to engage in hostilities against the United States, they would pay a huge economic price? What would their economy look like without access to the markets in the United States?
A man from China once told me those in charge are always concerned about having enough jobs for the population. They know if they aren't able to provide in income for billions of people, they are in trouble.
So, why would China take such an economic devastating move knowing it would severely damage their economic future and political stability?
May be i am biased, because i have personal ties to both Russia and China. But i simply can´t imagine that nations who benefit very much from international trade will wage war against their customers.
China and Russia are simply not influenced by western media. They do their own stuff, and that may not be what the west wants to see.
By the way, what business did Nato have to do in the Ukraine in September 2021? Hasn´t a former US president (Bush sen.) assured a former Soviet leader (Gorbachev) that Nato would never go east?
You need to realize the Ukraine is a sovereign nation. They are free to invite NATO to come to their country. They don't need Russia's permission.
What happens between NATO and the Ukraine is between NATO and the Ukraine.
The Ukraine would love to be part of NATO. It's always under consideration.
Again - Hasn´t a former US president (Bush sen.) assured a former Soviet leader (Gorbachev) that Nato would never go east?
Where was Nato in 1989?
It was a verbal agreement perhaps, but nothing binding laid out in a treaty or written pact.
That would be like saying something Trump promised to some other world leader is binding, if it isn't in a written contractual or treatise format then don't expect the American government to bide by it past that President's term.
This was more than a president just saying something in a bilateral meeting.
It was connected to the opening of the Berlin Wall and the withdrawel of Soviet troups from East Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on … to_Germany
You are right that the agreement was never in writing, but the harm had been done since, spreading distrust about what the West intends to do.
You are misreading the tea leaves... we have never been closer to a reason for war than now... not ever in human history.
A variety of supplies are limited, and China is at a very desperate and critical stage.
Of course most people in the West do not know anything at all about what is going on in China, or what they are concerned about.
If the CCP felt it had two choices... risk a world war or lose control and power, what choice do you think the leaders of the CCP will make?
If taking Taiwan increases their power, distracts the populace from its own problems, heightens the fears of the populace that America will attack it... then the CCP doesn't have to worry about its people rising up in revolt because of a collapsing economy, lack of power, loss of life savings, etc.
And be clear about this... taking Taiwan is a checkmate move. Between Taiwan, China, and choking the trade from South Korea 95% of the world's Semi Conductor production capability would be under China's control
Your computers...phones...cars...tvs... everything that uses power and has been created in the last ten years uses Semi Conductors... Tanks, Jets, Ships, Radar, Satellites, Signal Towers, Radios, Missiles, need Semi Conductors.
So yes... a desperate CCP could absolutely invade Taiwan, take control of the South China Sea and north up to South Korea, its a war America would likely lose as it could not replace its missiles or repair its Jets without Chinese made parts or Semi-Conductors to build new ones.
Of course... I don't think Brandon would actually be willing to risk going to war over Taiwan, more likely will just capitulate to China after making some noise against their take-over of Taiwan.
What’s all the hype about – It’s not ‘New News’; at least not on this side of the pond. There’s been friction of this kind between Russia and Europe, including Britain, since the ‘Cold War’; nothing has changed, except perhaps that the American News Media is highlighting this incident more than other similar incidences in the past?
• British Royal Navy responds to Russian threat (in 2018): https://youtu.be/Q-67OEp0KPQ
• A Russian Warship Causes Concern on the HMS Queen Elizabeth (2020): https://youtu.be/AV4OiEY1HPY
• RAF jets (British war planes) intercept two Russian bombers near UK airspace (in 2015): https://youtu.be/cJAh23nC1fE
Maybe you should speak to someone from Ukraine. They've had Crimea annexed and have been fighting a war with Russia since 2014. So, Ukrainians can understand why having over 100,000 Russian troops massed at only a two hour drive away from their border could be a big deal. They've had over 5,000 of their military killed and over 10,000 wounded.
Yeah, based on past experience, Ukraine and its allies are going to take this serious and see it as a big deal.
Who is "its allies"? Nato? No atruistic intentions.
The geopolitical issue is that Ukraine is kept in a constant state of instability by western interest groups. Imho Ukraine is kind of a roadblock in the Euro-Asian landmass that connects Asia, India, China with Europe. The other roadblock is Iran, which is also always under manipulation. And finally there is the Kaukasus.
You cannot use naval forces to control a landmass. The Britains and other western powers of the time tried to and didn´t really succeed (Crimean war of 1855) in the wake of the deterioration of the Osman empire.
The USA took over this task of destabilization in their strategic objectives.
Since 2003 Georgia (Kaukasus) has allowed the US military full access to their infrastructure.
Who is threatening whom?
.. Maybe you should speak to someone from Ukraine..
Our neighbour is from Ukraine (Donbas region). A cousin of my wife is from Ukraine (Zaporozhye). My wife has Jewish, Polish, Belarus background. It is always refreshing to talk to these people with direct information access, not disturbed by any media hype or paranoia.
My family is from the Ukraine and I have several family members who live there. We are from the western part of Ukraine, so we see things differently from those who are from Donbas region or the east.
Mike, I know what you mean. My tennis trainer was from Lviv. Actually he left the Ukraine exactly because of strong Ukraine nationalism, this Stepan Bandera style fascism. But that is another story.
It is a pity that the region of galicia had been "thrown under the bus" many times in history. Nationalistic sentiments and fears in both eastern galicia (in the Ukraine) and western galicia (in Poland) are used in todays politics and powerplay.
I have nothing to say, other than if you get an opportunity to visit Liviv during the summer, it can be a great time.
Where my family is from, there is a very strong Ukrainian national sentiment. Everybody in Ukraine speaks Russian, if you speak Russian in my cousin's home, he will tell you to leave. Ukrainian only.
My wife's family is also from Ukraine. They are like my family. We don't consider it to be nationalistic as much as a patriot.
found this video:
This guy Mearsheimer has insight and pretty much summons up of what i think about the crisis.
Even though the lecture was 6 years ago, the issue is as fresh as can be.
Have a nice Christmas.
I didn’t say it wasn’t a big deal, I was just stressing that it’s not ‘new news’ on this side of the pond; in Britain we’ve had to live with the Russian threat on our doorstep ever since the cold war e.g. it’s not unusual for Russian submarines to be snooping around the Scottish cost when one of our (British) four nuclear submarines (armed with nuclear missiles) leaves port to spend six months duty hidden in the depths of the open ocean.
UK forces must keep up to counter Russia threat, army chief says: https://youtu.be/S2QKr7RShRM
Preview - On Board Britain's Nuclear Submarine: Trident - https://youtu.be/3CMvMaUtd0Q
Let's put it this way. When over 100,000 Russian troops are massed in less than a two hour drive to the UK border, we'll talk. This is not just troops Russia has massed. It is also heavy tanks, artillery, etc.
It does a[pear something is brewing, and the media will do everything to downplay this Russian aggression. How unfortunate for the people of Ukraine.
Yeah, the border between Ukraine and Russia is over 1,300 miles long, and the border between Russia and Eastern Europe is 2,344 miles long; and for years Russia has periodically massed troops and tanks along various parts of its border with Eastern Europe, not just Ukraine: So as I said, it’s ‘Not New News’; but that doesn’t mean that I’m belittling it, it’s just ‘where was American (and the rest of the world) in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine?
As you have strong connections with Ukraine, you’re probably familiar with their winning song in the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest that takes a swipe at Russian’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014; it’s one of my favourite Eurovision Songs:-
Jamala 1944 (entry from Ukraine); winner of the 2016 Eurovision: https://youtu.be/75OwdZJzlkg
"where was American (and the rest of the world) in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine?"
That is a very good question. obama was in office at the time and couldn't be bothered with things in Eastern Europe. As for the rest of the world, I don't know. It's been a bloody and costly conflict with Russia since 2014, so, I think the unease in Ukraine is understandable.
I am familiar with the song. She is considered by many to be a hero in Ukraine.
"‘where was American (and the rest of the world) in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine?"
That is a very good question. obama was president during that time and he did not really care all that much about the Eastern European conflict.
I am familiar with the song. I didn't understand the words until it was explained me she was singing in the Crimean Tatar language.
Yep, I know; a great singer, and a great song.
On my part of the world, we know when Russia invaded Ukraine. But about the song, we learnt little...it was all in Greek.
The song “Jamala 1944” (Ukraine’s entry into the Eurovision) was watched live by over 180 million Europeans in the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest (A great song that takes a swipe at Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in 2014). This version (below) is with English subtitles.
• Jamala 1944 (Ukraine winner of the 2016 Eurovision): https://youtu.be/75OwdZJzlkg?t=38
What is EUROVISION (Explained by an American): https://youtu.be/kIcjd8tkdoc
I can say with a fair amount of knowledge with 35 visits to Russia that Russia today is not a threat to Europe. Whatever aggression you are seeing now is basically because of provocation from the west which has not yet got out of the cold war age. All the time the American generals are thinking that the threat is from Russia when actual threat is from China. Needless sanctions have been put on Russia in the hope that Russia will collapse. it's about time the west realized that Russia is not going to collapse -sanctions or no sanctions but the net result is bitterness. It is about time Western Europe realized that a conflict with Russia could lead to the destruction of Western Europe, which after the collapse of colonialism is now just a shadow of what it was and can ride only piggyback on America. Biden must factor in all these points if he wants to make a meaningful contribution to the world.
I can't see China as a direct threat. China is a trading nation that relies on exports to lift the living standards of its people. Would they do anything that would threaten world trade?
Many writers are talking as if Britain is a great power; one should not forget what Nikita Khrushchev said in 1961, that it will require just five H-Bombs to obliterate Britain from the World map. It is in the interest of Britain to make an accommodation with Russia and forget about Ukraine which in any case is being egged on by Western powers to needle Russia.
I don't think the president will address this issue. I know Russia may invade Ukraine, but I don't think Biden will act differently from Obama.
It makes my heart sink, but I have to agree with you. The Ukraine, with biden as president, is in a bad situation facing Russia.
America, with Biden as president, is in a bad situation.
The director of the FBI has said that acts of espionage and theft by China's government pose the "greatest long-term threat" to the future of the US.
Globalization has worked to extend Beijing's reach.
And --- the Soviet Union was a peer military competitor of the United States for many years, but with a relatively weak economy largely isolated from the wider international system. The US has now offered Russia a pipeline that will make them very rich.
China also has a huge and growing economic muscle. It shares much of the same economic space with the West and its dominance of crucial supply chains - just think of the medical PPE we needed due to the pandemic for example - we needed to turn to China for supplies as did much of the world.
Five days ago China warns of "drastic measures" if Taiwan provokes independence. China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and in the past two years has stepped up military and diplomatic pressure to assert its sovereignty claim, fuelling anger in Taipei and concern in Washington DC.
The People's Republic has always believed that Taiwan is a province as it always was until the very corrupt Kuomintang sought refuge there after the civil war. China can never accept Taiwan as an independent country, no country would ever accept that an integral part of itself can split away. What would happen if Texas claimed independence?
However, it is unlikely that China would invade. (I hope)
Yes, they do. China has had incredible success in lifting so many people out of poverty. But by doing so, it has raised expectations that improvements will continue. Its people demand progress. The government can't interrupt trade.
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