President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin were filmed saying warm goodbyes as their two-day meeting ended with China’s leader saying they were driving geopolitical change around the world.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/2 … en-for-100
https://news.yahoo.com/photos-putins-bi … 20656.html
Thoughts?
Mind-blowing Current News... Hey, thank you for smacking us with this report... It's certainly a mind-blowing issue. I fully realize the Biden puppet show hopes all are concentrating on --- "Hey we are going to arrest Trump!" "We are keeping our promise..." All while the country is just blowing in the wind... So much actually going on, it would actually be hard to comprehend the mess that we are in, and in such a short time. But, again thanks for posting this very important world event.
The roots of China and Russia have become intermingled over the past years, getting stronger, and more of a threat to the US, and the world.
I think if one was more attentive to what was happening with these two nations over the past Biden years one would not be surprised to see the pickle we are in now. One only needs to realize China has had an economy that even with COVID has picked up more quickly than most. Russia has truely held its own even under the sanctions that NATO and the US slapped them with, and a costly war...
We now have our two biggest enemies joining together at the hip. I mean, what can one really surmise? What can one fear with this kind of alliance? I know what I surmise, and fear.
Oh forgot, so much easier to look away, However, it would seem this problem has now jumped up and bit us in the ass.
And we have a feeble, unintelligent puppet in the White House, and who in the hell knows what food is pulling his strings?
So, I would surmise the alliance between Russia and China will grow quickly, and be history-making. And it will change the delicate balance of power, and this will be very ugly for humanity.
I believe this is pure role play to make believe they are friends.
No - they are not - friends.
Before Putin started the invasion he had visited Xi and had asked for absolution.
Putin probably said something like: "It will be over in a week. the West won´t do anything because they didn´t in 2014 and in 2008. Granted, there will be more sanctions but who cares, we had sanctions from 2014 on."
Xi will probably have thought: "What is this fool doing? I have more urgent problems with the economy and this Corona stuff, and if he says it is a short adventure then let him go ahead. And if China benefits by bypassing sanctioned trade, all the better".
We all know the Ukraine war developed totally different.
But we have to understand that China shows a totally different face when not looking at consumer goods that you buy at Wallmart. Then China is not the economic giant that a superficial view would suggest.
Military products are not consumer products. Russia´s industry is not strong on military production and development and China is also not strong on this field. Only - Chinese are a technology generation behind (Russia). This is no strategic threat.
In my professional career i was involved in the Aerospace industry. The world distribution of this industry (with close resemblance to the military complex) is as follows:
40-50% North America (USA and Canada)
30% Europe (without Russia)
6% China
4% Russia
the rest for Brazil, Turkey, India..
This is of course a different picture with products from Wallmart. But does anyone buy tanks, rockets, fighters from Wallmart?
Xi knows this and he also knows how secondary sanctions can harm China. Putin is full of humiliation and self pity from the decomposition of the Soviet Union. Putin´s tunnel view doesn´t or doesn´t want to see.
And to end my thoughts: Where do you think the oil and gas exploration technology is coming from? Not from Russia and not from China. Who has the pipeline building technology? Well, China can achieve a lot with its inherent organisational skills, but without technology? Huawei and Alibaba won´t help.
A big show for the journalists. Xi is too smart and Putin is too much in his tunnel to lift the relation to another level.
I tend to go along with that, Xi has his own model of global economic dominance so associating with Russia is not helping his image.
I am fairly certain this is a dated perception.
For instance China launched more rockets into space last year than any other nation, Space X, however launched more than all nations combined.
Before 2010, China averaged fewer than 10 rocket launches a year. The country has made significant expansions of its military space program, launching observation and communications satellites and embarking on an ambitious robotic lunar exploration program and launching a next-generation space station.
China is outpacing the U.S. in hypersonic missiles, China’s test of a hypersonic missile over the summer “went around the world,” this was spoken about quite a lot.
The Chengdu J-20 is China's most advanced stealth fighter jet the answer to the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet.
All in all, China has caught up to, or surpassed America in the areas it has focused on, rockets, satellites, jets, etc.
Ken, i didn´t take my perception from the media. I was personally involved in the development of the Chinese (and Russian) aerospace industry over the past 2 decades.
While i admit that my direct access stopped with my retirement in 2019, my perception well anticipates the very gradual pace of development.
You mentioned the J20 fighter jet. Well - i saw the full factory plans for said jet around 2017, because my Chinese counterpart was proud and bragged and showed his ideas to my foreign longnose. 2019 i followed up and the velocity of progress is breathtakingly slow.
I did manufacturing consulting for the Y20 program (Chinese remake of the C17 Globemaster) in 2012 ..2014. And how many of them are actually flying?
And yes, back in the 90ties i was involved in the C17 Globemaster program and in the early 2000 in the F-35 fighter program as well, no to mention Airbus A400M and Eurofighter. So i know a little of what i am talking about and not from the media.
Chinese can set up hundreds of e-mobility charging stations in the blink of an eye, they can build Corona hospitals in a week, but they are amazingly slow in large high tech structures like tanks, fighter jets, planes, rockets.
The real aerospace technological bottleneck for both Russians and Chinese is engines. If i were a war contrahend to these countries i would drop a few easter eggs on engine manufacturing facilities, that should do the trick.
Again, where is the threat?
That is interesting, I will defer to your insight and experience.
That said, I find it goes counter to what we see.
The most efficient car companies in the world, in China (including the Tesla factory).
Apple products as well as many other high-tech companies are, or were, made in China.
I have seen their missiles and rockets in action, but not in person of course, through recorded events and news, which is different than your own experience.
As i wrote before, it is a huge difference between volume or mass production of consumer equipment or volume production of 60 tons of military grade high tech (on the ground, in the air or in space.. or if you will under water).
You mentioned efficient car production in China. Where is the know how and skill coming from and preserved? German brands (VW, Mercedes, BMW..) run over 50 production plants in China. GM some 15 plants, Ford some 6 plants. Japanese are a little underrepresented due to old sentiments with Japanese Empire and yes, Elon Musk is also producing in China.
One thing is media coverage, the other is real world situation. There is no scaling up from consumer products to big toys like the M1 Abrams or the Leopard 2.
Back to the Russian - Chinese relations and the Ukraine war.
China lacks technology until this very day but has impressive skills in organisation. Russia has brilliant technological skills but totally lacks organisational skills. At first glance this may look like a perfect complement of skills.
However - having been involved in joint Russo-Chinese projects like the CR929 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929 i always noticed the uneasiness of Russian parties when talking to their Chinese counterparts. Russians understand, they are the junior partner, if partner is even the right expression. Not a good start for lifting relations to a new level. At least that is what recent media coverage suggests.
OK, let's work with your perspective on the matter. It certainly coincides with what I understand China's own self assessment to be.
China's desire to displace America was not to come to fruition until well after 2030. Some plans stated 2049. This corresponds well with your views on where they are today... Not ready to take on America.
However.
I think China, and the world, sees the weakness in America today that was not there during our last major mobilization, Iraq.
In fact, as much as we hear in America how weak Russia looks being held at bay by the much smaller Ukraine... The leaders of the world know that America trained and prepared Ukraine for this, for years. America has provided covert military support, has given Ukraine intelligence, weapons, everything but openly deploy its own forces into Ukraine and fight the war full on.
Despite this and despite the sanctions, Russia is still going strong and no closer to losing the war than they were after the first week... Or so it seems.
My question being, if you have such a low opinion of China's current ability to mass produce missiles, jets, etc. where does America's current ability to do so stand, and do you feel it has the economic and political will to see through the scale of conflict that will be necessary to defeat Russia and it's supporters?
Grotesque the way you support Russia and China
You misinterpret the point of this thread.
While I disagree with almost every major move the Biden administration has made regarding foreign affairs, discussing the current situation for what it is, based on facts as I know them, is not the same as supporting Russia and China.
For context:
In this documentary there is a great deal of information from across a spectrum of perspectives, Polish, German, Historical, etc. regarding Ukraine... but I only want you to pay attention to Part VII: Prelude to War, which begins at the 1:03:00 mark (an hour into it).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcn3_V2_rJ0&t=4291s
Having a base understanding of Ukraine history helps, this is as short yet informative documentary as I could easily find:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDN-DtJMs4Y
Now back in 2014, who was the instrument of the revolution, the overthrow of the government in Ukraine?:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROTwyP5no08
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBo0akeDMY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHhGEiwCHZE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9Dk2emDU0o
You can spend a lot of time learning about Ukraine and Russia's entwined history, and how America directly became involved in what is going on there, covertly prior to the 2014 revolution and very openly afterward:
Biden's Visit in 2014, his third in a 7 month stretch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jylk1h4LLqc
Understanding what is happening and why, who is profiting from it, who is pushing for it and why, matters:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJLn-8HEK0w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AMsrxba3Sc
Now lets consider the deepening China - Russia alliance (the point of this thread):
A month before Xi went to Russia to meet with Putin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL-iC1pJmeg
Three days ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWv4Gj1SQjU
And Saudi Arabia's aligning with China and Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3aDau8nSi4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih14NzJxEYk
I have probably provided more information here, then you could get on these topics if you spent the last year watching CNN every day.
You do have a biased for Russia against Ukraine.
Why, I don't know. Have you been to Russia or Ukraine?
You can read about how great Khreshchatyk was before the war, but there is much more than you can ever read. Having been there is what provides the personal observations and experience.
I don't think in any of your responses you've ever supported Ukraine on any level. You need to read some of the news in Ukraine. If you're ever interested I can provide some sources.
I don't think you are interested in anything other than your selective sources that support your views.
My bias is not against Ukraine.
My bias is against WWIII, its against false narrative and propaganda.
My bias is against the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of people who have died needlessly.
A conflict that could have been AVOIDED if AMERICA didn't deliberately go out of its way to create it.
Just like we created the reason to invade Iraq, a second time.
Just like we created a reason to destabilize and occupy Syria.
Just like we created a reason to kill Gaddafi and turn Libya into a dysfunctional slave haven for militant gangs that run the region (one can't even call it a country, its collapsed, its as bad as Somalia).
https://www.theroot.com/how-obama-s-wor … 1820879083
I know VERY WELL what the real problems are, and why we are continuously at war, continuously overthrowing one nation after another.
I understand you have skin in this conflict, for you its personal... sorry to tell you, it could have been avoided, it could stop now... if there was anyone in a leadership position willing to compromise with Russia and Putin.
What you refuse to accept, is that Ukraine is just being used to get to Russia and Putin, Ukraine, and the hundreds of thousands that have died, are being used by Biden and all those that pull his strings.
Its a war about power, resource control, and the richest and most corrupt influencers of the decision to push for this war to get their way.
Putin is no saint, Russia is no bastion of freedom and liberty... but compromise would be far better than the potential millions that will die, the cost and suffering that will be endured, or worse, the end of civilization if WWIII breaks out and nukes start flying.
Do you at least admit that Ukraine was invaded? Do you agree that Ukraine has a right to defend its territory and people against Russia? Do you admit that Russia has committed horrible war crimes and must be held accountable? The reason for it is irreverent, it's today's reality. We must deal with what is happening today and now. Russia must be stopped. They have gone too far. If the are not stopped, they will go after Poland and western European countries. THEN you will have WWIII.
I don't understand how people in this country have been persuaded to side with Russia. Putin needs to be slapped back and slapped down. He needs to be shown his place in the world pecking order. I'm quite content for the U.S to lead the world. Can't understand people who are content to be passive followers and let an authoritarian, communist nation take the lead globally and suggest we stand by while they invade another country. I wish our country would step up the efforts in Ukraine.
I think what Ken is saying perhaps the US, and NATO could have worked on preventing the war altogether. Stopping Russia cold before they stepped foot in Ukraine. The US could have stopped Russia in Russia, period.
They did not... Does this not leave room to truely ask why not? This BS about not becoming involved in a non-NATO countries war, is ridiculous. Facts show they could not be more involved in supporting this war. However, one must ask, who is suffering and perishing? One country, one people are suffering, and perishing due to this war.
So, I must ask, why was it not prevented with the power of the US and NATO? It was clear what Putin intended to do with his troop build-up on the Ukraine border. He could have been stopped cold. His aggression needs to be stopped, it needed to be stopped before he pushed into another country. This man is a menace to the world, and he now is bolstered by China and most likely feels very strong at this point. Biden released this man on Ukraine in my view. He is a weak president that did not show any deterrence to Putin.
And I agree we must deal with the here and now. We can only hope we get a man in the White House that can bring Putin down. All our bandaids will do no good in solving this conflict.
What would have put government said or done to prevent Putin from backing down on de-nazifying Ukraine?
You do realize he is a deranged man?
Actually talks were attempted and Putin snubbed his nose so I think he gets what's coming down the pike for him. I can't sympathize with a dictator. I don't think it's realistic to think any president's words can deter actions another leader is bent on carrying out. If that was the case we would have never had any of the wars throughout history. I know though it's just more convenient to place blame. We always need a quick fix here in America to slap on blame while we ignore the multitude of complexities in the situation.
You are just regurgitating what you have heard on some news or radio show.
You probably couldn't even be bothered to watch any of those links I provided.
You just lap up the MSM's dummed down messaging of Putin evil tyrant who wants war.
I know, it's simple... Russia bad, America good, that is all you need to know.
And why exactly is Russia good?? But yes, I live in America so I am pro American,,, why aren't you?? Why do you constantly extoll the virtues of a communist country and it's depraved leader and you assume that I "regurgitate" why do you not receive a ban? Oh yeah...right wing site here.
Your links have no validity. And yes...RUSSIA SUCKS
As I stated, "This man is a menace to the world".
You shared your view, I shared mine... in my view, this war could have been averted.
No interest in arguing my point.
Yeah, no. That's not what I am saying at all.
I am saying Russia, Putin, said stay out of my backyard... He's been saying it for 20 years.
Just like America has told the world stay out of all of North America and more, or else.
We didn't give a crap about what Russia wanted, so we supported anti-Russian efforts in Georgia, and Russia had to go in and quell it.
And America fueled and supported anti-Russian efforts in Ukraine, helped those factions overthrow the elected government, then put in their own pro-Western puppets, one a former IMF official.
Then America, spent 8 years training Ukraine for this fight, supporting Ukraine when Zelensky all but declared war with Russia when he promised to take Crimea back by force.
America has been pushing to destabilize Russia and its allies for decades now, they have targeted each nation one way or another.
America (Biden and the cabal that put him in office) and the West ( especially it's International corporations) want Russias resources, they want control, they want power... and if every last Ukrainian is sacrificed so that they get it, they don't care.
Ken, thank you for clarifying. I certainly had this one all skrewed up.
This is a very evil-sounding scenario. So it is clear to say the US just wanted exactly what we have now.
Ken, in your view -- could this plan ever work? I mean I don't see Russia as going all out, to the very bitter end.
And do you think if US and NATO if they wanted to could have pushed back on Russia, and averted a war?
Russia is going all out, to the bitter end.
Russia recognizes, now at least, that "the West" will not end this conflict until they have deposed Putin and his supporters and gained control of Crimea and beyond.
From the Russian perspective, Crimea is part of Russia as much as Moscow is.
It doesn't matter that America or Ukraine refuse to accept that reality, Russia has incorporated it into Russia, fully, and has stated to the world an attack on Crimea is no different than an attack on any other part of Russia.
Many other nations in the world already know we are in WWIII:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbcCh8Ni3MI
Syria claims WWIII underway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIbycZ_Yo8A
Russia Ukraine War: Nuclear Escalation
Those links give a better idea of what is going on currently with this war than you will get from MSM.
That is why it is important to realize that China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, showing signs that they are with Russia, and hence, against America in this conflict, is no small matter. If the conflict does escalate into open warfare... between the three largest nuclear armed states no less, it is bad news for all of us.
Do you have any faith that Biden is going to lead us anywhere else but into WWIII?
Thank you for the links... Shocked me.
I will answer your question honestly --- I feel Biden and his administration, as well as many outsiders, are hell-bent on destroying America at its very root -- He has caused such societal destruction, and I can't see this only growing. The hate in the country is palpable. So, I truely feel Biden will do his best to escalate the war. He is doing others' bidding, an evil game in my view. He is a shell of a man, always has been. He was the perfect person to stick in the office, a puppet, looking for some form of recognition.
This kind of hate can be guided into a literal revolution. I see we still have many Americans that see what I see and will not sit idle and watch the country become a country we no longer recognize.
So, Ken, I ask do you think these Americans I speak of will let Biden go as far as getting us deeper into this war? I am talking about ridding this bunch in 2024, voting them out, and ridding the country of the evil I see.
I realize the country is split in half, however, will more citizens wake up to the fact that the Democratic party is working hard to destroy the country?
The Pessimist, the Realist in me says we are screwed.
I said that as soon as Biden was handed the nomination. Credence should be able to attest to that easily enough.
The 'Manchurian Candidate' scenario I spoke on in another thread does not seem so far-fetched to me, when you look at the developing situations globally.
Who-ever Biden is really serving, it isn't the American people, there is literally nothing he has done on the international scene that has improved our future or our economy.
One thing has to remain key in considering all that has gone on... there was no need for the Ukraine conflict or its escalation. It could have been avoided, instead it was pursued, with vigor, by Biden.
One could even say it is a continuation of America's interference in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now on the border of Russia itself.
Those nations had two things in common, former Soviet Satellites and direct access to oil (and natural gas) and its production/transportation.
Russia is the biggest prize of all, when it comes to oil and resources.
They aren't going after Poland or anyone else, unless those countries engage them first.
Who is going to hold America accountable?
For what it did in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and the wastelands they turned those places into?
I have presented plenty of evidence America sought this conflict and ensured it occurred, and ensures it does not end.
America/Biden has stated it will never recognize Crimea as part of Russia, Russia has said Crimea is Russia, to attack it is to attack all of Russia.
It's just a matter of time before it escalates it's what the people running things in DC/Pentagon want.
I told you before this conflict even began, look to Iraq, that is what Ukraine's future will be, a devastated land, a shell of itself.
We just completed year one of a long, miserable, tragic, conflict that has a long way to go.
This argument that Ukraine should have rolled over and been incorporated into the USSR is tiring. Sorry Ken but I hope the U.S. goes in full force and obliterates Russia. Putin needs to be b**ch slapped into reality. He doesn't run the global stage...we do.
Good God America, Putin's laughing his ass off at us because we're afraid of a trans person in the next stall...get a grip people or well be speaking Russian in no time. When did Americans become SO weak?? Gross.
I agree with you.
It is Ukraine that was invaded. It was Russia that did the invading.
President Zelensky has said he doesn't need any other military to help the Ukraine military. They only need weapons that can match Russia's weapons.
Most people don't realize Russia's military has been seriously degraded because of this war. They've lost over 120,000 soldiers in a year. They have lost so many tanks and APCs they are using their stock piles from the 1960s and 1950s. They say they are "modernized." Ukraine is winning tank battles against Russia using captured modern Russian tanks. Now isn't THAT ironic.
Lets say this is factual, that Russia has lost all its best equipment.
How did that happen, how did Ukraine go from a satellite state with no real army or equipment to one that could stop an 'invasion' in its tracks?
Because the US and its allies spent years preparing Ukraine for this conflict, arming them for this conflict, ensuring they had the intel and support for this conflict.
This wasn't a surprise 'invasion' by Russia, it was one that was deliberately instigated, this was a conflict that was deliberately looked for, when Zelensky (with Biden's full support and assurances) went on a world tour telling everyone that would listen that Ukraine was taking Crimea back, by force, that was a declaration of war.
Zelensky, the West, did not want a peaceful negotiation, they wanted war.
They still want war.
Ultimately the goal is to destabilize Russia and gain control of it, and its resources. Whatever that takes, and if they can't do it by economics, or assassination, they will do it by forcing the war into Russia itself.
Their problem now is all the support Russia is getting, from China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc.
America and its close allies that wanted this fight hadn't anticipated so much of the world standing up against their efforts, they thought they could threaten Saudi Arabia, China, etc. and get them to back down. They were wrong.
I would also say that China, and by extension all of BRICS, as well as OPEC are getting what they want out of this.
America and its allies are also paying a huge toll supporting this war, it has cost nations like Germany massively economically and production wise. The chances of nations like France and Germany having to deal with an economic collapse is just as good as Russia having that occur.
This benefits China and the BRICS nations, while the EU in particular is being crippled by this conflict, China and India in particular are able to expand their production capabilities, they are able to benefit from the cheap energy resources Russia now provides them, not the EU.
For China as well, the longer they support Russia in this, the more reliant Russia becomes on them, separating them from the West and the Dollar.
"They aren't going after Poland or anyone else, unless those countries engage them first."
And you know this how?
Ukraine did not engage them first and look what happened. Have you ever spoken to a devout Russian from Russia? Many of them believe, as does Putin, that Ukraine, Poland and all the countries that were once part of the Soviet Union should be "Repatriated" to Russia. They refuse to acknowledge these other countries are sovereign nations.
On this point you are very wrong
"I have presented plenty of evidence America sought this conflict and ensured it occurred, and ensures it does not end."
All you have presented are opinion pieces.
I hate to break this to you, but as someone who is following the war on a daily basis, Ukraine is winning. I see major changes in favor of Ukraine this summer. The Ukraine military survived what they call the "Winter of Attrition." They are in a very good position accomplish their goals
'You need to read some of the news in Ukraine. If ever you're interested I can provided some sources'
ReadMikeNow, did you mean the news written in the Ukraine language or English language?
In the later case, I'm interested. Give some links. Thanks.
It was roughly 15 years ago i adopted a scaling factor to evaluate Chinese industry and economy. Scale 10.
A company in the USA or Europe with lets say 1000 employees and an adequate turnover is equal to a little giant with 10 thousand workers in China. And vice versa a Chinese city of 2 Million inhabitants has the economic punch of Little Rock, Ark. Consequently a city of the size of 200.000 in China is to be treated like a small county capital in rural USA.
This applies to industrial products as well and exspecially when it comes to military equipment that is larger that an assault rifle.
Apply factor 10 for advanced technology industry and economy and China gets comparable to Japan. This is of course of significance (as WWII has shown), but didn´t the USA come out of WWII as the sole Superpower?
Don´t underestimate the industrial base of the USA and Nato Europe. This is not about flooding the world with copycat Barbie dolls or cheap dish washers.
As long as China remains at this level for heavy and high tech equipment it is not even necessary for the USA to demonstrate political will. The US potential and abilities are all too obvious.
China knows it. US officials also know. But of course it is always convenient to promote the image of a rising protagonist to foster the military industrial complex in the USA.
Yes, I realize that, your last paragraph.
I was in Korea in 96... It was a pretty backwater country then.
I went back 4 years later, they had 8 lane highways, it seemed every household had a new car, they had cellphones more advanced then our own at the time and had connectivity everywhere, unlike America at the time.
In four years it was like the country went from being Peru to being Silicone Valley. I can't stress the change and how amazingly fast it was.
I could never do the drastic changes I saw justice, it would take book, I would have never thought it possible.
Three years ago, Tesla didn't exist in China, today it has the world's leading auto manufacturing complex in existence there.
China leads the world in EVs, Satellites, Cell phones, cell tower equipment, etc. etc.
If I hadn't spent two years in Korea, and seen how drastically... Immensely so... things can change in a handful of years, I'd be much more willing to accept your assessment.
...sanctions, Russia is still going strong...
Really? Weren´t revenues from VAT (value added tax) dropping strongly?
Russian economic statistics are censored. But apparently they forgot about that number and kept publishing real data, until someone found out that figures don´t match with other statistics.
The Kremlin does everything to keep the big cities happy. And rural Russia is living in conditions of the past century. What do you care that a new, heated Japanese toilet seat gets more expensive if you don´t have fresh water supply in the first place. So for rural Russia not much is changing only that they are indoctrinated with patriotic duties and comparisons to the Great Patriotic War (WWII) for recruitments.
Military and industry are totally flawed by corruption and something called "Vranyo", systemic lying. Watch this video. The guy is spot on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz59GWeTIik&t=2142s
The outcome for the Russian military is poor quality in manpower and material, even though it takes time to deplete the stockpiles.
If the USA and Nato are taking their own doctrine seriously that quality beats quantity then there is not much to worry about.
A last word: In the beginning of the invasion i was one of those who gave Ukraine just a few days or weeks. My reasoning was that Ukraine is also a child of the Soviet Union and should face the same "Vranyo" problems. Apparently the real achievement of western training of the Ukraine army in recent years was to sort out the "Vranyo" behaviour.
Russo Chinese relations don´t solve any of the Russian flaws. And - the USA and Nato should not underestimate their own strength.
I will watch the link provided soon. But before I take the time, let me say I agree with your perspective on the corruption and quality of living standards for the majority of the rural population.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out, Russia has a lot of resources, and this war is on their border, they truly believe (with good reason) that America (the NATO alliance) is coming for them.
So for Russia this is a war of survival, if they lose this war, they become a "Banana Republic" that exists merely to serve the whims of the West.
For China, they lose a much needed ally, they no longer have a secure northern border, they no longer have access to the cheap energy and mineral resources provided by Russia, their Silk Road is compromised.
If Russia falls, or fails in Ukraine, it is a devastating blow to China's goals of usurping America's place on the Global stage.
If Russia falls, or fails, it impacts OPEC as well. OPEC loses its leverage of control on Oil production, Russia could put Saudi Arabia and the rest of them in the poor house if it ramps up its production under Western corporations control, this was proven a couple years back when Russia competed directly with Saudi Arabia flooding the market with oil and dropping the price to below profitability for production.
I do like your input and insight, but I'm not sure you realize the desperation and urgency Russia and China feel to succeed in this Ukraine conflict, in their BRICS union, in expanding their influence and breaking free from America and the Dollar.
I have to believe China, Iran, India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Brazil, Syria, etc. all understand that a loss in Ukraine is a loss for BRICS and is a loss for their nations, they will all suffer for allying with Russia far in excess of what America and the EU has or will suffer. Russia is sitting on resources, worth in excess of 60 trillion dollars today, if that comes under Western control, OPEC becomes a non-issue, and China is starved of affordable easily accessible energy.
Is China´s goal really to usurp America?
From a self centered American viewpoint it may look like it. For all others (including Nato allies) it is simply that China tries to make its way back to where it was 4 centuries ago.
There are 2 more Asian players: Japan decided (or had to do so) to take the American side. India is still undecided. Indeed it is interesting how all this plays out after the Ukraine conflict ends.
The role of the USA in the world has declined economically for the past 50 years. It is not because the USA performed poorly but it is because others on the world stage grew and grow up. A natural process i would say.
Another video just caught my attention on the discussion topic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz59GWeTIik&t=2142s
I am not always in line with Peter Zeihan, because he tends to make things too simplistic and sometimes gets matter wrong. But in this video he expresses rightly the unsymmetric relationship between Russia and China.
Another one?
I just got done watching your last one, which, was worth the watch.
I got a lot of laughs out of it, the way he explained 'Vranyo' through his examples were hysterical, of course I appreciated it probably far more than those who have not spent years in such situations (military).
I do believe he is spot on when explaining why Russia failed in its efforts, for the better part of the year, especially the belief that Ukraine would just roll over, leading to their initial disasters and such loss of equipment.
And I loved the saying he noted "The more paper you have, the cleaner your ass is'.
All that taken, after many months of failures and failings, I believe they have restructured and have gotten very serious about their efforts and their accountability.
Let me give an analogy. Consider the movie Rocky III.
Rocky shows up for a fight unprepared, not expecting that the guy he is facing is intent on trying to kill him. And Clubber Lang (Mr. T) knocks him into tomorrow right out of the gates.
After getting his ass handed to him, he does some soul searching, gets his act together, and in the rematch he wears down and ultimately defeats Clubber.
The first fight equates to the first year of this conflict for Russia.
Now Russia knows its up against it, its in a fight for its very existence... the idea that it was going to roll in and this would be over in a week are long gone.
This second year and beyond, will equate to the second fight.
It might be long, it might be bloody, but I don't see Russia losing.
I think Biden has made a big mistake not getting to the negotiation table and striking a cease-fire, armistice, or what-ever would end the conflict.
Instead he has escalated the commitment to this war, this verifies all of Russia's fears, that the West is not intent on protecting Ukraine, but coming after Russia itself.
When you corner a Bear and give it no avenue of escape, expect it to become fierce and extremely violent.
Your bias for Russia once again put on display.
You see this as a fight between Ukraine and Russia.
It is not.
It is a fight between "the West" and BRICS.
Ukraine was the proxy for this fight between the West and Russia (BRICS).
Because of your bias for Russia you don't want to admit that Ukraine was invaded. It was invaded by Russia. Ukraine is fighting for its right to exist as a people and culture. There was NO reason for Russia to invade Ukraine. They were no threat on any level. All issues were political not military. You also don't want to admit that putin is a war criminal. What Russia has done is goes against humanity.
Do you even realize what you are cheering for?
I don't forget things, I don't forget that this started with Zelensky, fully with Biden's backing, going on a World Tour to tell anyone who would listen, promising to take Crimea back by force, if necessary.
I don't forget that every time there was a chance at peace talks, or agreements, like the Minsk Accords, they were used merely to give Ukraine time to prepare for this war, to take Donbas and Crimea by force.
It is not as simple as you suggest, Russia has watched America take down its close allies, Libya, Syria, Iraq. Russia has watched as America has reneged on one agreement or promise after another.
You don't see it that way because you are Ukrainian, but I also remember prior to this conflict, you had no real problem with ceeding Crimea to Russia... as any sane person, you felt it wasn't worth expending hundreds of thousands of lives and causing untold misery on millions of others just to claim Crimea, which was full of Russians that had no problem being Russian.
So you see... I realize the real culprit is the one who poked the Bear into becoming aggressive, who still now pokes the bear, backing it into a corner, until it becomes far more ferocious and dangerous to the world than it has been to this point.
"but I also remember prior to this conflict, you had no real problem with ceeding Crimea to Russia."
I don't think that was me.
"I realize the real culprit is the one who poked the Bear into becoming aggressive, who still now pokes the bear, backing it into a corner, until it becomes far more ferocious and dangerous to the world than it has been to this point."
Platitudes is how you comprehend the massive death and destruction of humanity by a dictator?
That's just plain sad.
I think Ken made a point sharing that he doesn't forget that this started with Zelensky, fully with Biden's backing, going on a World Tour to tell anyone who would listen, promising to take Crimea back by force, if necessary.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles … ify%20wall
https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/ru … 35ab9e0eb1
It well appears Zelinsky is twisting the knife in Putin's side. The question is, do you feel this bravado is wise on Zelinsky's part?
I don't think anyone is not very much sympathetic to what the Ukrainian people are going through. I am just trying to figure out how this war started, could it have been prevented, and now, where will all this end up?
Realistically, I think we could agree, the US walks away when they find a war becoming too detrimental to the US, and the American people.
It would be hard to assume what would happen if Ukraine no longer had the help of the US.
In my view, the war needs to be addressed diplomatically at this point to have any chance of a positive outcome for the people of Ukraine. No one is really making that effort at this time. Except for China.
"BEIJING, March 16 (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to soon visit Russia's Vladimir Putin and, according to media, hold a virtual meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy weeks after China proposed a 12-point plan for peace in Ukraine."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ca … 023-03-16/
Sherlee01, your insightful thoughts makes sense. Ken has said the the Biden backing of Zelensky and Ukraine to annex Crinea is a first cause. But I'm much concern with how the innocent souls suffer and died in the war. I study Crimean history later later.
No, what is sad is that we have leaders who wanted this.
We have leaders who said there would be no compromise, that Crimea would be taken back.
And this is some of the cost for that, I am sure there is more to come.
You are correct, I cannot ignore the past:
Zelenskiy Takes Aim At Russia Ahead Of International Meeting About Crimea - 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PsY7ncfpqs
Zelenskiy: Ukraine will retake Crimea 'whatever the path may be' - 1 yr ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Px5l3rSedic
It was always going to be war, Zelensky and Biden refused to accept Crimea's secession and refused to seek peace/compromise in Donbas.
This is what the reality is, Russia was provoked.
You can disagree with the legitimacy of the secession of Crimea, but Crimea did secede and was accepted into Russia and is part of the Republic.
May I not forget this act of Crimea succession in world affairs.
Crimea did not succeed from Ukraine. Russia used its military to annex it from Ukraine. The region had been part of Ukraine for decades.
Mike, you have become jaded on this subject (rightly so perhaps).
Prior to this conflict you could debate in a less emotional, less personal way about it, as exampled in your own thread from right before the conflict started:
https://hubpages.com/politics/forum/354 … if-they-do
You did not want war then, you did not want America fighting that war then.
Here is an interesting thread when it occurred 9 years ago:
https://hubpages.com/politics/forum/120 … the-crimea
People then were saying it was the same as WWII and Germany, but it wasn't. Russia secured Crimea, supported the "rebels" in the Donbas region, and for years did not escalate matters.
Putin could have rolled into Ukraine far more effectively in 2014, Ukraine would have collapsed if he had, Ukraine was fighting amongst itself, there was no government or power structure to speak of.
Russia didn't. Russia 'annexed' Crimea or Crimea 'seceded' take you pick, I don't care... It was done without conflict, without war. For the most part, everyone in Crimea went right along living their lives in peace.
Donbas is another matter. It was after Zelensky was elected that Ukraine increased its efforts in the Donbas region, this too is documented by the observers that were in place.
https://acleddata.com/2020/04/13/donbas … ay-silent/
https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications … 05_fhs.pdf
https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/fil … ine_EN.pdf
Those are some great resources to show where things were in 2019.
And then Zelensky (and Biden) changed all that. Not Putin. Zelensky, backed by Biden, both began ranting about how they would never accept Crimea as part of Russia.
Zelensky (with Biden's backing and several years after Crimea had been fully incorporated into the Russian Republic). Put into Ukrainian law that Crimea was going to be taken back, no matter the cost, by force if necessary... signaling he was willing to throw away hundreds of thousands of lives to do so.
That was not the way to peace, Zelensky never looked for a compromise or a peaceful resolution, he stated to Ukraine, NATO, who ever would listen his intent to retake Crimea. That always meant war.
You are right. I am different now. I will spare you the details, but my family has truly suffered from this war. I have seen things I haven't since I was an officer in the Army and only much worse. The US Army in Iran and Iraq faced nothing like the Ukraine military is facing right now. It's the images, listening to refugees, hearing from friends and relatives what they are experiencing in Ukraine, it changes you.
I see this conflict in way you can not imagine. Yes, it is personal. It is friends, family, fellow Ukrainians, family history all on the line.
I still say you know nothing about Crimea. I don't care about your links. I've been there, I've spoken to the Tartars and it is their land.
There is NOW only one way to peace. Russia must retreat from ALL Ukraine lands. Period. I encourage the liberation of Crimea. This is something desired by many people in Crimea. Again, you need to speak with the Tartars and know what Russia did to them and their land.
Russia is suffering huge losses. I guess you need to look at foreign newspapers and even Ukraine media to realize how bad it is for them right now. Their losses are staggering.
You refuse to realize or acknowledge, it was Ukraine who was invaded. It was Ukraine who had it's land seized by Russia. It is Russia who is the aggressor in this conflict. It is Putin who had been declared a War Criminal by the International Criminal Court. Russia are the ones who must be defeated.
To me, THIS is all that matters.
I've caught that the West is pushing this 'the Tartars are oppressed' issue as well. Just more excuses for this war. No one seemed to care when they were being 'oppressed' prior to 2014.
Like you said: 'not that I would know' since I'm not there.
"There is NOW only one way to peace. Russia must retreat from ALL Ukraine lands. Period. I encourage the liberation of Crimea. "
Well then, you are just pushing for millions more to die. Sorry, not going to join you in that.
The hundreds of thousands who have lost their lives are not better off for this effort to "liberate" Crimea.
There will be hundreds of thousands more if this war continues, including many of the Crimean's you want to "liberate".
ReadMike, I get into history and do research. Thanks.
Miebakagh,
You are always a pleasure to hear from in these forums.
"Crimea's secession"
Really and truly you are one confused individual on this topic. I think a more accurate word would be annexation by a foreign power. You know nothing about Crimea, I doubt you've ever been there or talked to the Tartars who live there. Their history with Russia is one that is also heartbreaking.
You probably don't even know before Russia used its military to annex Crimea, it was referred to in Ukraine as "The Autonomous Region." They had quite a bit of freedom under Ukraine.
Ukraine is in a war for its very existence as a people, nation and culture. We all know Ukraine can not lose the no matter what. That is the reason I feel compelled to respond to your accusations. It is one of the things I do to support the effort for a free Ukraine.
You never respond when I ask if you have any connections to Russia or Russians. One more time, do you?
In my hometown in Germany currently we host some 1.500 Ukrainian refugees. I met a guy from Rivne and as he and i are both of similar age and profession, so we got easily connected.
The man is from Rivne. Was an engineer and in Soviet times a polkovnik (colonel) in the a sapper or pioneer unit. He had his share in the Chernobyl nuclear disaster and is a Chernobyl radiation victim and veteran.
Making a long story short: Yesterday we played chess and had some talks on the situation in Ukraine. He made an interesting remark on Crimea.
For south eastern Europe the Black Sea is something like the Carribean for the USA. And Crimea is the Florida of former Soviet Union.
In Soviet times when military brass and high ranking officials retired, they had a choice of residence. And they did and do behave like retired Americans do, move south. For the Russians to Crimea. But these retirees take connections and influence, their network with them. Of course a retired general will connect to local army units, no matter before or after 1991, 2014 ...
Made it easy for Russia to take over Crimea. Not because local Crim tatars were good friends with Russia, not because an absolute majority of people were pro Russian, simply because those with influence and network indeed were Russian and pro Russian, and that mattered in 2014.
I concede that history may also have played a minor role. But this remark by my Ukrainian friend makes more sense. Just saying ...
Exactly, there is no black and white to who Crimea belongs to.
Its grey.
There were attempts by Crimea to secede and become independent, or rejoin Russia, before 2014... many.
When Crimea did secede, it did so when there was no legitimate government in charge of Ukraine (the legitimate government had been overthrown).
Crimea returned to the Russian Republic, without war, without conflict.
Now in order to return Crimea back to Ukraine, they are willing to sacrifice millions of lives and risk WWIII and Nuclear Armageddon.
So, who are really the warmongers here?
"When Crimea did secede, it did so when there was no legitimate government in charge of Ukraine (the legitimate government had been overthrown).
Crimea returned to the Russian Republic, without war, without conflict."
Again, another BOLD FACED lie. NO an illegitimate government in Ukraine had been overthrown. An illegal election installed a Russian puppet as president who could not even speak Ukrainian. He was removed and returned back to Russia.
Crimea was not RETURNED to Russa, it was illegally annexed. The entire world agrees it was illegally annexed. Why do you continue to perpetrate such lies? It required Russian soldiers to complete the illegal annexation.
As they say in Ukraine Путін, пішов нахуй!
Why are you so afraid to reveal your connection with Russia? You talk and use phrases just like a Putin supporter that I've encountered on other forums. The only difference is they had the courage to identify themselves.
Yeah, anyone who doesn't support Biden or Zelensky in their war efforts are Pro-Russian traitors, #1 threats to Democracy... yup, got it, know the spiel.
Companies like Shell and corrupt politicians like Biden just love folks who buy in to that dogma.
Nothing you've said justifies telling blatant lies about Ukraine.
Crimea was annexed by the Russian military and did not secede. I feel strongly you know the difference and are just being dishonest. This is a fact.
You still refuse to admit that Ukraine was invaded. This is a fact. It is not even in dispute.
Ukraine has a right to fight off an invading military force.
Your lack of acknowledging these things have led to to wonder about you.
1. You have a close connection to Russia from a relative or friend, etc. and share their views.
2. You don't really care and are simply writing things to get people, such as myself, to respond and keep responding. A person who would do such a thing would be a very ignorant being.
3. There is more to your blind dedication to Russia than you are willing to share.
I'm an open book. I don't hide why I support Ukraine. I am proud to support Ukraine.
What I have been saying is apparent, because it is in this thread.
The attack was not "unprovoked".
There was no effort to ensure peace, to the contrary what Zelensky and Biden were spouting was an invitation to the disaster we see now.
I do not defend Putin, but I recognize many of the motives, on both sides.
Yes, Ukraine is in a war for national survival, but why was that brought on?
Who were the instigators of this current conflict and how far back do you want to go?
My question to you is, how many more Ukrainians are you willing to sacrifice to "liberate" Crimea?
Is it worth another 200,000?
When will it be too many deaths?
When will it be time to sit at the negotiation table and compromise?
After a mushroom cloud goes up over Kyiv?
After all out WW breaks out and tens of millions have died?
"My question to you is, how many more Ukrainians are you willing to sacrifice to "liberate" Crimea?"
My question to you is how many more soldiers are the Russians willing to sacrifice in order to continue their illegal invasion of Crimea? So far, they've lost over 150,000 soldiers. So, I guess they may need to lose 150,000 more.
"After a mushroom cloud goes up over Kyiv?"
Should that happen, a mushroom cloud will go up over Moscow. European countries have let it known they will not let such a thing stand. It is the doctrine of mutual destruction.
"When will it be time to sit at the negotiation table and compromise?"
When Russians have left all of Ukrainian territory. Period. They've gone too far and will not benefit from this illegal invasion of a sovereign nation.
Again, you avoid the question of your connection to Russia. Your responses are too similar to Russians I have come across in other forums.
Like I said, you are willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of more lives.
Over a place that Russia is not going to give up, because to Putin and the Russians, its part of Russia now.
There is no more point in discussing it with you then, you are right there with Zelensky, willing to destroy your own nation, no matter how many die and how that leaves your country (see Syria, Iraq).
I think that it is Putin who will ultimately end up being destroyed by this along with hundreds of thousands of more Russians.
Ukraine will NOT give up Crimea as it is part of Ukraine being occupied by invaders.
No, there is no more discussing this.
Unless you want to disclose your connection with Russia.
I would like to know about that as it would put things in perspective.
I do feel an obligation to call out the lies you tell about Ukraine. Even when proven wrong, you persist in telling the same lies.
Interesting behavior.
You've proven nothing wrong.
I provide links to my claims. From some of the most well established sources. Or to videos where Biden or Zelensky are speaking the words themselves, or from official White House releases.
I understand your refusal to accept these facts, to do so, is to admit hundreds of thousands of lives have been thrown away for the greed and arrogance of leaders that have no interest in compromise... that sought this war, and continue to feed it.
Millions of lives have been ruined, and you support these asses that could care less how many millions of lives they destroy. It seems you are right there with them, willing to throw away a few million more so that you can take back Crimea... for what?
What is Crimea going to get all those who have died and suffered?
Nothing.
What did it get us fighting in Afghanistan for 20 years?
Nothing but deaths and debt and misery.
What did it get us fighting in Iraq for over 10 years?
Nothing but deaths and debt and misery.
Syria... Libya?
Do see the trend?
Do you see how we left those countries?
Do you know what is to become of Ukraine?
No, I don't expect you want to see that truth, just like you don't want to see the Russian perspective, you just want to hate and destroy them.
You need to go and fight there then, because your attitude is what is feeding young people being thrown into the meat grinder to die.
Still won't reveal your connection to Russia.
I can only imagine.
I'm Ukrainian and the world knows it. I don't back down from that fact.
You still refuse to acknowledge Ukraine was invaded.
Ukraine is fighting for its very existence, not Russia.
Russia is the one committing war crimes.
Russia is the one that is intentionally targeting civilians.
It is Russia's leader who has been determined to be guilty of committing war crimes.
Russia is now and always has been the aggressor in this conflicts.
These are facts YOU refuse to accept.
When asked how many soldiers can Russia afford to lose? One may want to compare the population of Russia 143.4 million to the population of Ukraine 43.79 million
Putin is an evil heartless man, do you think he won't continue to draft anyone including young and old, men and women to fight his war?
Is it possible to win this war without losing massive numbers of civilians in Ukraine?
How do we know how many Russian soldiers have died? Do you believe what our Government is reporting, when they add the word estimated?
"One may want to compare the population of Russia 143.4 million to the population of Ukraine 43.79 million"
It doesn't matter. What matters in the ways of warfare are the equipment, motivation of the soldiers, training and the will to win.
In these regards Ukraine is more than a match for Russia.
"Is it possible to win this war without losing massive numbers of civilians in Ukraine?"
No. But what is the option? Living under Russian control? Like they say in place where my relatives live in Ukraine, "I would rather die a free wolf than live as a Russian pet."
Here is an international organization that keeps track of losses. I understand the information comes from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
https://www.minusrus.com/en
"It doesn't matter. What matters in the ways of warfare are the equipment, motivation of the soldiers, training and the will to win."
Thus far it is clear that the US and NATO are supporting the war with equipment, and aid, and the people are committed to fighting as long and hard as they need to. This is commendable on so many levels... But what if the help decides they can do no more? America has a long history of picking up their marbles when the game does not go their way.
So what happens if the help is no longer there?
I just hear very little about any attempt to try to end the war with peace talks. Why is this? I do believe some solution could be reached, I pray for peace in Ukraine and an end to the war.
I watched so many of my friends, and my husband go off to Vietnam. The war was long and cost many lives, military, and civilians. I also watched it on TV the day the US pulled out swiftly... And the country falls into the hands of the communists. We watched the same in Afghanistan.
My fear we will see the same in Ukraine. My heart and prayers are with the Ukrainian people. But my common sense and knowledge of US history make me hope for peace talks, and solutions to bring an end to this war.
"I just hear very little about any attempt to try to end the war with peace talks."
China's Xi, recently put forward a 12-point proposal to end the war. Putin shoots it down. When your new best friend asks you to consider something and you say "nah" where do you go? The man is on a mission.
“Wars typically tend to go on longer than people expect or hope, but especially interstate conflicts of this length,” Kofman said. “History tells us that wars which go on this long … are likely to become protracted, lasting several years.”
Perhaps Italian analyst Lucio Caracciolo was the most pessimistic of all. “This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said.
“It will only stop when Ukraine or Russia or both collapse, since for both sides this is a matter of life or death,” added Caracciolo, the editor of Italian geopolitics publication Limes.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro … edictions/
https://mwi.usma.edu/how-will-the-war-e … f-victory/
The annexation of Crimea was popular and welcomed by an overwhelming majority of Russians. Unlike Donbas, where the fighting has continued since 2014, Crimea was never contested militarily by Ukraine following the annexation, though it was not recognized by Ukraine as part of Russia. During the eight years preceding the February 24, 2022, escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Russian public had accepted the Kremlin’s slogan “Krym Nash” (“Crimea Is Ours”). In the eyes of the Russian public, the prospect of losing Crimea would lend credence to Putin’s claims that the war is being fought in defense of the homeland.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/1 … -pub-89071
Those are some links to some expert opinions and explanations on this war.
They can be tragic to read.
I read those, and others not linked here, of equal or better value for their expertise and insight.
As I said, they are tragic, because the overwhelming majority of military and government opinion considers this only in the context of Russia vs. Ukraine/NATO.
The truth is, and the point of this thread was, it is not just Russia.
The visit from China's Xi to spend three days with Putin was a message that this is the case. No matter how it is relayed by Western MSM news sources, what it was in reality was a message to the world "we are united"... and they signed agreements to that fact.
Bigger picture, one has to understand what BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is and what their goals are:
the bloc’s primary objective has been to promote a shift from the Western-led global governance system to a more inclusive paradigm of multipolarity that could serve as an alternative to the U.S.-hegemonic unipolar model.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com … rld-order/
And what this conflict has shown, is that India and China are willing to stand by Russia, without actually coming out and opposing America in doing so, of course. Brazil and South Africa are far less relevant in this,
OPECS choice to make decisions on behalf of Russia, snubbing Biden's efforts, is an even more eye opening turn of events, that they have agreed to trade in Yuan with China, that China brokered a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and that China stepped in to support Russia at the year mark of the Ukrainian conflict, shows that this is not just Russia vs. Ukraine/NATO.
The military opinions (in the links provided) expected this war to drag on for years possibly, but that was without taking into consideration that Russia is not alone in this, it is getting support from other nations, and I think that support will grow.
That is what is so tragic about this, a total miscalculation as to where this would go, the 'brains' behind these decisions thought the world would treat Russia as a pariah, but what is being proven, is that the BRICS alliance and OPEC alliance is stronger than the threats and wishes of America/NATO (at least while Biden is President).
You cite Italian analyst Lucio Caracciolo as an expert?
He's nothing but a journalist.
Why would anybody care what HE thinks? The man has never even been in the military.
This is what you refer to as an "expert."
That is just plain sad.
Ken, thank you for sharing. I can see this is complicated. However, I can see you have insight into the bigger picture. My common sense tells me you are right on the money.
I guess I never opened my eyes to the evil that can be done to maintain or usurp power. I am very fearful, America has now been pushed into a corner that we won't be able to get out of.
I just can't comprehend how our Government could have been so very stupid to get us into this mess.
Yes, thank you, I do not have a myopic view of the Ukraine conflict as to how it effects Ukraine only.
And I don't really concern myself with what is 100% agreed upon by "the West" in regards to who did what when, or what is or was legitimate or legal according to whatever law/rule is being quoted.
I know our government and media sources lie just as much as any others in the world, if not more.
In fact, that is the biggest problem we as Americans have, we only get a packaged propaganda version of what is going on, with Ukraine or anything else.
So it requires a considerable amount of research to find a more balanced idea of what is going on.
To ignore Russia's perspective is ludicrous, in doing so, you can never reach a negotiated peace. The West has shown for the last two decades it could care less about what Russia wants or what its security concerns are.
And if you don't consider the larger perspective, of what is going on beyond Ukraine, BRICS, OPEC, the shifts in power, the unwillingness of most nations outside of "the West" to go along with America's wants and demands... and realize how this too, ties into the war in Ukraine, then indeed you miss the larger picture, and therefore cannot predict with any feasible accuracy, what is going to happen going forward.
America has made a lot of enemies... Iran, Syria, North Korea, now Russia, and joining in supporting Russia is Saudi Arabia, China and India.
That's a big deal.
Ken, you and Mike's discussions of this topic is most interesting. It is like anxiously awaiting an upcoming episode of a popular program.
As I have said early on, almost a year ago, that the West has brought much of this on itself. I always say, if you don't want to find yourself in an untenable position, don't put your adversary in one,
Questions:
It would seem to me that Putin would have to topple the Ukrainian government, install a puppet leader to prevent any more entreaties from the West toward the Ukraine. That would have to mean carving the Ukraine up like a roast. He is earnest in this pursuit and is determined not come away empty handed.
For much of this century,as you have pointed out, an unnecessary security threat has been facing Moscow. But clearly the people of the Ukraine, under the principle of self determination of people, are fighting as the underdog to avoid being reduced from an internationally recognized Sovereign nation to instead, being a Russian colony.
Any armistice or negotiated agreement will be resisted by Putin short of the Ukraine' ceasing to exist as an independent nation. He has already gone to too much trouble to accept anything less.
But as it is right now, believing that Putin is not open to negotiation, do we just stand by and let Putin just take what he wants? A level of aggression not seen since WWII.
Are other nations in the Russian vicinity to have confidence regarding our defense agreements with allies under the Pact? They all virtually storm the gates to get into NATO. Is that response more than just an irrational fear?
If Putin can be convinced to call off his invasion, I believe that more consideration needs to be worked into future negotiations that consider Russia's security concerns.
And what does it takes to provde Russia security? Is BRICS not enough? What else then?
A start would be a pledge by the west to discourage NATO membership for countries next to Russia. I would not want to be surrounded by hostile forces, why would Putin?
Agreed.
But again, there is the bigger picture, and there is what this 'conflict' has now set in motion.
US Dollar Faces A Rebellion | Saudi Arabia Enters China-Led SCO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vm2s9eCgPCM
Understanding BRICS, OPEC, SCO collectively, what decisions they have been making since the outset of this 'conflict' matters.
In trying to understand what the real goal of Russia is, one has to set aside everything one has been told about what Russia/Putin is trying to do by every single news story put out by the Western media.
What has Russia/Putin wanted?
Well, Russia/Putin supported America when it wanted to invade Iraq, that wasn't in its best interests if it planned on reconstituting the USSR.
In fact, that would have been a great time to take over Ukraine and several other nations, while the entire collective Western Armies were assembled to demolish Iraq (and Afghanistan).
Lets consider 2014, that would have been a great time for Russia/Putin to invade Ukraine, he would have had half the country supporting him then, rather than letting them spend the last 8 years killing political opposition and building up their army and getting training from America, the UK and others.
Its strange that for 20 years Russia didn't take advantage of any opportunities to expand.
Maybe Russia/Putin is doing what he said he was doing, protecting Russians and Russian interests by accepting Crimea's secession and by supporting the "rebel" factions in the Donbas region.
Maybe he doesn't want surface-to-air missiles (SAM), or a variety of other deadly weapons within distance of hitting Moscow or anything in its airspace?
Or maybe Crimea is vitally critical to Russia's ability to control its access to the Black Sea, and the sea of Azov, and to keep missiles and weapons being placed there that could destroy any ship it has in that sea.
Based on Russia's actions, I see no clear evidence that it ever wanted to carve Ukraine up like a roast. I see nothing until Zelensky and Biden came on the scene and started ranting about taking back Crimea by force and bringing up their artillery to shell the heck out of the "rebels" in the Donbas region just days before Russia chose to invade.
Very simply, I believe peace could have easily been achieved for Ukraine.
Accept that Crimea was now part of the Russian Republic, as it has been for nine years now.
Find a way of resolving the Donbas conflict.
This is what Russia proposed:
The U.S. and NATO not admitting any new members, including Ukraine, and also effectively prohibiting any NATO military activity in Eastern Europe and most of the former Soviet Union.
Proposals that addressed grievances the Kremlin has nurtured for nearly three decades about NATO's expansion since the Cold War -- into what Moscow views as its sphere of influence.
Joe Biden said F'off to that.
Funny, but that is exactly what we demand from the world for the North America and beyond. We would not accept any missiles from Russia to be put in, lets say, Cuba for instance.
And of course, Biden also said F'off to recognizing Crimea as part of Russia. Despite the fact that Russia is NEVER going to give up Crimea without direct and total war with Russia to take it back. It is complete fantasy to think that anything short of total annihilation of Russia's army and ability to fight back will ever separate Crimea from Russia now.
That's why I call Zelensky and Biden what they are, warmongering callous, arrogant, egotistical, corrupt, evil men that chose to send hundreds of thousands (perhaps millions as it is not near over), to their deaths... over something they cannot force from Russia.
Putin never once asked for that, before or after the conflict started.
He said no NATO, no missiles, accept Crimea as part of Russia.
This war will never end, until most if not all of those criteria are met.
Now that Russia has allies, in OPEC and BRICS, trust me, there is a slew of evidence showing these relationships are getting stronger every day.
Russia brokered a peace between Syria and Saudi Arabia.
China brokered a peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
All of them are working together, all of them are agreeing to trade in China's Yuan, not the dollar. In particular China, Russia and India are working more closely together than ever before.
Russia has real allies in this, and they are not getting cold feet over the war... if anything, they seem to be warming to Russia all the more for it.
Your Russian sympathies are quite obvious.
Again, you perpetrate a blatant lie about Crimea. "
"accepting Crimea's secession and by supporting the "rebel" factions in the Donbas region."
Crimea did not secede from Ukraine. They were illegally annexed. The Russian military was used to take it over. How many times and in how many ways do you have to hear this or read this before you accept it?
I know this is the lie perpetrated by the Russian government.
Your approach to this is the Russian way.
When they do something others may disagree with, Russians tell blatant lies and their lies become their truth.
In every other way you have promoted the Russian position. You have only promoted the Russian position.
You only promote the lies told by Russians.
I do question what is your connection to Russia? It is obvious you DO have a connection to Russia. You may not admit to it on such an open forum, but it IS painfully obvious.
"Russia has real allies in this, and they are not getting cold feet over the war... if anything, they seem to be warming to Russia all the more for it."
This is article makes me think of your responses. The use of fake accounts?
"Russia’s techniques for spreading these narratives included the use of fake accounts, manipulated imagery like deepfakes, forged documents, and videos with fake news tickers purporting to be from respected brands like the BBC or Al Jazeera. In other cases, operatives simply aimed to increase mistrust in foreign audiences about the credibility of Ukraine’s government and the effectiveness of its military."
"Russia and Ukraine are fighting multiple battles, but Russia has the resources to create customized messages to different audiences all over the globe."
"Before Putin ordered tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, the Kremlin spent years seeding false narratives to justify military action. When the invasion began, the effort kicked into overdrive. Ukrainian researchers were taken aback by the volume of false information in the war’s opening weeks.
"Russia co-opted popular fact-checking formats. It created a host of multilingual channels, like one named “War on Fakes,” which “verified” or “fact-checked” allegations to support pro-Kremlin narratives and defend the Russian military’s actions."
https://time.com/6257372/russia-ukraine … formation/
As I said last time you made such claims:
To you, and those like you: Anyone who doesn't support Biden or Zelensky in their war efforts are Pro-Russian traitors, #1 threats to Democracy... yup, got it, know the spiel.
Corrupt politicians like Biden just love folks who buy in to that dogma.
I don't support the war, I don't support Biden, I think Zelensky is a flaming ass who does nothing but stir the pot and send more men to the meat grinder.
I state facts. Not fantasy that gets hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions more to come, killed.
Russia is not giving up Crimea. It was never going to happen.
"I state facts."
Could not disagree with you more.
You state false Russian propaganda.
That is easily provable and has been on many occasions.
It is not provable, if it were you would have a plethora of links showing it.
I have a plethora of links in this thread, proving my points.
Your focus is on Ukraine alone, your focus is on justifying the slaughter of hundreds of thousands, for an effort doomed to fail... Ukraine is being used, that is the reality, certain people wanted this war and did what it took to manufacture it.
War crimes, civilians killed... yup, in every war, this is the case. That is why good leaders find compromise and warmongers put us into WWIII.
The TRUTH... Crimea had been part of Russia for eight years.
The Minsk Agreements were NOT agreed to by Zelensky, it wasn't Russia refusing them. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment... Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone... and find a peaceful resolution.
Zelensky from day one started his tirade about taking back Crimea.
That truth... that seeking of war... that is Biden and Zelensky.
"It is not provable, if it were you would have a plethora of links showing it."
Your consistent allegation that Crimea seceded is a blatant lie and falsehood. That is just one of the many "provable" things.
"justifying the slaughter of hundreds of thousands, for an effort doomed to fail..."
More Russian propaganda. This is almost word for word what Russian commentator Vladimir Solovyov has said in the past. Odd how you repeat it.
"War crimes, civilians killed... yup, in every war, this is the case."
Again, you refuse to admit that the INTENTIONAL targeting of civilians in a war goes against the rules of the Geneva Convention. Russia is a signatory to the Geneva Convention. It is a fact that Russia had committed war crimes and an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court has been issued for putin because of the war crimes he has committed.
This is a fact and it is indisputable.
Situation in Ukraine: ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation- … -putin-and
putin is a war criminal
Ukraine was invaded and is fighting for its sovereignty against an aggressor. The World Court agrees Ukraine has a right to its sovereignty.
Crimea will be eventually be returned to Ukraine. They are waiting to be liberated.
"The military-political leadership speaks of the inevitability of the de-occupation of Crimea, since the citizens of Ukraine suffer from systematic and gross violations of human rights on the temporarily occupied peninsula. In addition, the Russian Federation uses Crimea as a springboard for its aggression in Southern Ukraine, shelling Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones.
If earlier the Ukrainian authorities considered the diplomatic way of returning the peninsula to the constitutional space of Ukraine as a priority, then after February 24, 2022, Ukraine is really preparing for the military liberation of Crimea."
https://day.kyiv.ua/article/polityka/kr … s-chekayut
Ken, it is very clear facts are not accepted as they were in the past. And neither are any opposing views that are factual. This is what is very scary. We have intelligent citizens so beaten down with propaganda, that they no longer believe what is factual. They believe what is set in front of them by the media, and a very corrupt administration.
What is needed is a new administration that offers talks not weapons.
As I see it, the facts were that Putin invaded Ukraine. Not just Crimea. Putin's stated reason for the invasion: to " de-nazify" Ukraine. I may be wrong but I don't ever remember him speaking to the Crimea issue as a reason for the invasion of the entire country. Just to tough for me to get on team Putin. Feels very anti-american.
You have a point about the Crimea area, there has been enough contention over the years regarding it to allow for negotiation and compromise as to whom it does belong. It appears from historical record that the region and its occupants are pro Russia.
I can see not admitting new members from the area in the Russian sphere of influence, its backyard. Otherwise, NATO can gather new members elsewhere.
Prohibiting NATO exercises in Russian areas of influence, but as Poland is in Eastern Europe, such a demand is not reasonable. Eastern Europe is a broad area.
"He said no NATO, no missiles, accept Crimea as part of Russia."
So, you believe that Putin will stop there?
I wonder what Mike and Chris would think about these points as part of a negotiation process.
"I wonder what Mike and Chris would think about these points as part of a negotiation process."
Negotiations can only begin when Russia has left all of Ukrainian territory and not until then.
Negotiations can only begin when Russia has left all of Ukrainian territory and not until then."
OK
Cred,
I would like to ask you and all Americans on Hubpages this question.
What would you do if one day Russia showed up in Alaska with thousands of soldiers and their leaders refused to acknowledge they are there? The soldiers took over the airports, all major communications, all military bases. They took over Alaska and the Russian government still refused to admit they are there. Then the Russians lets thousands of Russian citizens into Alaska to take over the homes and businesses of American citizens.
They then hold a referendum counting the votes of Russian soldiers and the newly arrived Russian citizens and claim that Alaska is now part of Russia. They claim that this territory was once owned by Russia for over 100 years. The history of Alaska is that of being part of Russia. They tell you Russia is the second most spoken language in Alaska and it historically belongs to Russia. They tell you the citizens wanted Russia to rescue them.
The entire world tells the Russians they illegally annexed Alaska, but the Russians ignore this and continue to spread their lies and propaganda about Alaska.
The Russians then build a bridge to Alaska. They remove all American flags, demand only Russian be spoken. They turn all street signs as well as names of towns into Russian. Schools are suddenly forbidden to teach English or any language other than Russian. People speaking anything other than Russian are punished. During this time, all Americans, including native Americans, suffer terrible human rights abuses. They are told they can't leave. Now picture hearing the words seeing the images of Americans suffering this way in Russian-controlled Alaska.
How would you feel?
If you understand this, you understand what is happening in Crimea.
If the situation in the Crimea is the example that you provided here, I would consider such an invasion to be akin to an act of war. I would need to dig into my articles regarding the Crimea area again to compare and contrast your scenario with what is currently happening in the Crimea region.
I guess Americans should know their history. We fomented revolt, separatism in the Panama Canal region against Columbia in the early 20th century to obtain permission to build a canal there against the wishes of the Colombian government. They certainly did not like this as I would not have either.
While Russia had the region under military ccupation, it appears that the referendum was forced and coerced by the Russian government
In 2014, UN General Assembly adopted a non-binding resolution declaring the referendum invalid and reaffirming Ukraine's territorial integrity by a vote of 100 to 11 with 58 abstentions and 24 absent.[51][52] Since 2014, the UN General Assembly has voted several times, most recently in December 2019,[53] to affirm Ukraine's territorial integrity, condemn the 'temporary occupation' of Crimea, and reaffirm nonrecognition of its annexation.
Ken, how can we argue with UN referendums?
How can you argue with the fact that China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, India, Syria, Brazil... OPEC and BRICS are standing with Russia?
I'm a big picture guy Cred.
Who was right or wrong when it came to Korea?
Does anyone know or care?
We avoided hundreds of thousands, or perhaps millions, or tens of millions of deaths by compromising.
Crimea had been adopted into the Russia Republic, for over 8 years.
Now suddenly, we HAD to go to war to take it back.
Biden and Zelensky said there would be no compromise, no cost is too high!!!
I disagree.
I don't care what anyone else 'feels' about it.
Peace was the better solution for America and all Americans. For the Western world.
This war is going to cost America immensely and the EU even more.
This has facilitated OPEC and BRICS nations to begin shifting off of the dollar and agreeing to trade in Yuan.
It has brokered peace agreements between long time rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, India and China, it is interesting to see these nations set aside their long time conflicts to unite and make the move away from the Dollar... they truly seem to be joyous over the idea of being out for the shadow of America, even if that means becoming bedmates with former enemies.
How you did not respond to the UN Resolution speaks volumes.
I know you are focused on Ukraine.
I know you are focused on the justification for Ukraine's actions.
I know you don't want to hear about how international corporations like Shell want access to the vast resources of oil and Natural gas. Or the role America played in nurturing the uprisings in 2004 - 2014. Or the historic relevance and efforts of Crimea to separate from Ukraine long before 2014.
I know you want to frame this as: Putin bad - Ukraine victim.
But I am more interested in what this is on the larger scale.
This I feel is America's One Country Too Far.
This could prove to be America's One Enemy Too Many.
We may have the world's largest Army and the World's best weapons, and we may have an Ocean separating us from all the conflicts we are involved in.
But it is beginning to become clear, that outside of the "Western" Nations, the World is looking to get free from America, its interference (military and otherwise) and its Dollar.
So when you bring up the UN Resolution, well first, lets make sure we understand what that was...
The U.N. General Assembly on Thursday passed a non-binding resolution declaring invalid Crimea’s Moscow-backed referendum earlier this month on seceding from Ukraine, in a vote that Western nations said highlighted Russia’s isolation.
There were 100 votes in favor, 11 against and 58 abstentions in the 193-nation assembly. Two dozen countries did not participate in the vote, either because they did not show up or because they have not paid their dues, U.N. diplomats said.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukra … GA20140327
Now that was in 2014... a lot has changed since then, and it seems America is a lot less popular than it had been just a decade ago.
The second thing I would bring up, is the UN is far more a tool of the West and what we see developing now with BRICS and the SRO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) is a large part of the world beginning to separate from the Dollar and by extension the IMF, WB, and other Western controlled 'NWO' global agencies.
How this fairs for the UN as an international peacekeeping agency, or global court, I don't know, but I suspect its relevance will wane as America's dominance on the global stage wanes.
Ken, I think that can't be re-enacted nowadays? Thanks.
No I don't think it could be.
That was two Presidents and ten years ago.
Obama was far more popular on the Global Stage and he had more competent people working in his Administration at that time then Biden has now.
Besides, ten years ago America was more of an economic force, the divide between China and America had not yet begun, and in general, the world has had ten more years of growth, and ten more years to grow tired of American bad behavior.
Thank you, Ken. Thank you. I appreciated your input.
Well, Ken, obviously we cared as we conducted limited warfare in the region in the early 1950s.
Yes, we ultimately agreed to the 38th parallel as the boundary between the north and south.
Let's have a negotiated settlement, but why can't Putin recognize that no one is going to come to the negotiating table as long as his troops are in the Ukraine?
The peace that comes with a boot on your adversaries neck is not peace. Peace is not always an absolute in itself.
I can't dispute with the UN resolution, Hitler, Tojo and Mussolini walked away from the League of Nations when they could not have their way.
I can't accept Putin's word over that of the predominant international community. Circumstances may have changed from 2014, what has happened so that Putin deserves more sympathy in his position today?
Can we begin with Putin taking his troops out for a start?
Can Putin agreed to that? That's why I posted somehow above that both Putin and Zelensky should quit their respective goverments. Credence, both you Ken and Mike, I inferred are ex-service men. I'm unabled to join the elite corps or commission officers cadre of the Nigerian Army due to age limitation and other issues at my end side. So I went to university and read history. This has enable me to understood you trios io this forum discussion and another about the Russian-Ukrainian war. While, the UN presently is domintated by China? Now that China-Russian has signed a friendship pact, can China back Russian to withdraw from Crimea?
I suppose they could, but I don't think that is what they are interested in.
I want to take the Right or Wrong out this... the who has a right to do what, as well.
Its important to recognize what is going on.
In fact, I'm trying to get off the Ukraine focus, because it is a small part of something much larger that is occurring, at an increasingly quickened rate.
Nations are shifting away from America and those institutions, organizations, and agreements back by, or influenced by America.
Russia and China have united, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, Syria and others are all joining in. OPEC is siding with Russia. BRICS is siding with Russia.
This is a big deal. This is going to have MAJOR and I mean MAJOR impact on America's economy and the value of the Dollar...Soon.
Yes, Ken, it's a big deal. But playing politics with the question of the State, Big Brother is fallen. God save America!
A solid read on the matter:
WHY THE BRICS BLOC WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL GLOBAL ECONOMIC ROLE IN 2023
https://internationalbanker.com/finance … e-in-2023/
One of the most significant objectives the BRICS nations appear to be working to achieve is a shift away from reliance on the US dollar. Even before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, which seems to have expedited de-dollarization initiatives across much of the non-Western world, Russia and China had embarked on clear policies of local-currency promotion, invariably at the dollar’s expense, as their relationships with the United States continued to deteriorate. By the first quarter of 2020, for instance, the dollar’s share of bilateral trade between the two countries fell below 50 percent for the first time on record, having been almost 90 percent just five years earlier.
This alignment with Saudi Arabia (OPEC) that China (BRICS) has brokered means they are well on their way to De-dollarizing the Global Financial System.
Why would Putin take his troops out without an armistice, without some guarantee?
Try to put yourself in Putin's shoes.
For twenty years Putin has been saying, to America, NATO, the EU... stop instigating problems, stay away from nations that are close to Russia. Keep nuclear weapons away from our borders, leave our allies alone.
America and their close allies have ignored all of Russia's requests, concerns, wants, etc.
Syria is a close ally of Russia, the amount of destruction we fostered there is as bad as anything suffered in Ukraine.
Of course, America didn't do that officially to Syria...
Remember Benghazi, the Ambassador being killed, the shipment of anti-aircraft and anti-armor weapons shipped from there, to Turkey, to be smuggled into Syria to arm the rebels?
Russia has watched allies like Iraq, Syria, and Libya fall victim to American interference.
Russia has had to contend with revolts, uprisings, overthrows, in Georgia, Ukraine, even within its borders, funded by 'the West' through one means or another.
Russia came to the table and signed the Minsk Accord, only for Zelensky to spit on it and begin his world-tour campaign to garner support for taking Crimea back.
I am sure I am only scratching the surface on the amount of times and ways Russia/Putin feels he has had a dagger stabbed into his back, by America in particular.
Also, let me add, Crimea is not going back, it is not "occupied territory" in the minds of Putin or Russians in general. It is Russian. Hence why, when Zelensky and Biden started publicly and insistently talking about taking Crimea back, by force, Putin amassed a force to invade Ukraine.
And then he demanded the Minsk Accord be adhered to, NATO give assurance to stay out of Ukraine, and accept Crimea as part of the Russian Republic.
Biden, in his fashion, said F'off. Zelensky as well.
Then Ukraine amped up its artillery barrage on the "rebels" in the Donbas.
Only then did the Russian invasion begin.
I would trust America, especially this Administration, less than I would trust a Cobra I just stabbed with a fork... if I were Putin.
By and large, I believe much of the rest of the world, not North America, the UK, and the EU (and some of them perhaps) has had enough.
I think this is becoming about much more than Ukraine.
I think a large portion of the globe sees what is being done to Russia and realizes that if America is willing to antagonize the world's largest nuclear power, on its own border, and do everything but declare war on Russia... they (the world) have a problem.
"Also, let me add, Crimea is not going back, it is not "occupied territory" in the minds of Putin or Russians in general. "
Not according to the rest of the world. Not according to the United Nations.
"Try to put yourself in Putin's shoes."
During the 1930s and 1940s the world should have tried to understand Hitler's reign of murder and destruction. The world would be a much better place, right? He had his reasons for killing the Jews and taking over Poland, Austria and those other countries.
The world was just unfair and Hitler was just the victim of western aggression, right?
This makes about as much sense and trying to put yourself in Putin's shoes.
This is in a realm beyond ridiculous.
Everyone is Hitler... Trump is Hitler... Putin is Hitler. It gets old.
This is not Germany in the 1930s and Putin is not Hitler.
Neither is Trump for that matter.
Or Xi.
Putin's treatment of Ukraine is more like Hitler than anyone you mentioned.
You Russians need to realize this war you started is based on the dictates of a deranged and evil person named putin. Nothing you Russians can say or do will change this. putin IS a war criminal charged by the International Criminal Court.
Yeah, I'm not Russian, I'm also not Pro-Russian, nor am I a terrorist threat to Democracy.
Stick to voicing your opinion rather than name calling.
The ICC's arrest warrant is more meaningless than the UN's non-binding Resolution.
China is not part of it, Russia is not part of it, Russia, like many other countries, does not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC.
It does, however, help to give a current understanding of who is allying with whom.
Those nations that say they will adhere to the ICC's warrant are taking sides with America and the West. Those that don't will be siding with the growing alliance of nations headed by China and Russia.
This is ridiculous. It make international justice system a laugh.
Yes, Credence. But Hitler's murdering the Jews, Poles, and other ethnic groups of people he opined as low blood is inhuman, calous, and extreme madness. Grant the fact that Wildrow Wilson, engineer and Chaired the Paris Peace Treaty, Hitler and Germany were not treated fairly. He and Germany is not the exceptions. They're others. Dictators come in different colours. Some are benevolent.
The difference is significant for sure.
I am not defending Russia.
I am saying this is a stupid war to get into. Over Crimea.
Just like pissing off Saudi Arabia, spitting in their face so to speak, and then threatening them when they don't do as you demand, is stupid.
This thread is about showing what is going on in the world, and yes, our support of Ukraine is having a large impact on that, but this is not about Ukraine... its about the alliances developing between other nations because of our efforts against Russia, for Ukraine, and also Biden's ineptness in general.
Ken, i think you are off track with the victim role of Russia and Putin.
There are multiple historic examples that indicate what is happening right now.
Just look back some 90 years. In the early 1930ties Japan invaded the northern part of China (Manchuko, Manchuria). When Japan found out it got away with it, they moved on in 1937 and kicked off the invasion of China with the Marco Polo bridge incident.
Few years later Germany expanded by connecting more and more neighbouring countries to the Reich (i believe this was already part of this discussion). Again after getting away with it (Appeasement policy), the guy with the short mustache started a real war.
In 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. When Russia found out it got away with it (with the exception of minor sanctions) Putin moved on...and in 2022 ...
Every one of these historic events holds a source of national humiliation (or what is comprehended to be one).
- For the japanese Empire it was the denial of Western (colonial) powers to accept Japans sphere of influence in Asia and neglectance in the Versaille treaty.
- For Germany it was again the Versaille treaty
- For Russia and the conflict today it was the deconstruction of the Soviet Union.
This feeling of national humiliation unites people and their government in regaining basic status quo. This is why most Russians follow Putin until this very day. (One of the successful moves of Putin was the decadelong creation of "Russky Mir" the Russian world.
If you step back far enough to look at the "events" and humiliations then in the first part of the 20th century it were the colonial powers that played a major role, not the USA.
All historic events were triggered by expansionist strategies of Japan, Germany, Russia. Each of these countries were/are lead by the impression that they are entitled to more of this planet than they already have.
The role of the USA is not as active as it may be perceived. And from a foreigners standpoint there never was and is any general change in foreign policies, no matter which administration was/is in charge.
The Soviet Union fell apart by itself. When Ronald Reagan started his Star Wars initiative it only accelerated the process within the SU a little. But at that time the Soviet Union was already broke and broken, too weak to counter any Nato intimidations, if there ever were any in the first place.
Don´t overestimate the influence of the USA on local conflicts. Conflicts ignite from the inside, in case of Ukraine by the desire of Russia to reestablish the Soviet Union and by Ukraine by deciding to team up with the west.
It was Great Britain that was pioonering these expansionist, colony, dominion, and overseas ambitions. Critically, the slangon was 'Britainica brave the waves'. One salient factor was her lack of food at home. Looking beyond her country provide the food supply. Is it any wonder Africa, Ireland, India, America, and Japan come first under Britain on a large scale? Is it also any wonder that other nations began to copy her? It's only China that came late, and that to expand it's economic frontiers in the 21st Century.
I don't buy this. I know this is what the Western MSM is selling, but it doesn't float for me, my experience/knowledge of how we operate (justify) military interference with other nations gives me too much insight.
Russia didn't try to invade from 2014 to 2022 and they agreed to the Minsk Accord which Zelensky refused to ratify.
Zelensky (who didn't come into power until 2019) went on a world-wide tour telling every nation that would listen he was taking Crimea back, he created an international panel to take Crimea back, he put into Ukrainian law that they would take Crimea back no matter the cost.
These are all well documented facts that I have sourced (linked) before.
Biden came out and stated repeatedly the US would support Ukraine in these efforts, that Crimea would never be recognized as Russian.
All this was essentially a declaration of war against Russia... it is simply the American (Western) way of declaring war... which we never do anymore.
Toppling Iraq was not considered a war, toppling Libya was not considered a war, trying to topple Syria was not considered a war (we still occupy much of Syria today with American forces and Mercs), 20 years in Afghanistan... you get the point.
Again... Russia/Putin had to watch all those nations, of which Syria was a close ally, be demolished by America/Western nations. He knew Ukraine was building up a Western trained and equipped army and had been doing so for 8 years.
Quite the opposite, it is far more involved than you will ever be informed, no matter how much news you watch or what your sources are, unless, you have direct access to such founts of information as the Pentagon, SoS's office, etc.
Putin did not want to take Ukraine by force any more than he wanted to take Belarus by force or reclaim all the states of the former USSR.
What Putin wanted to do back in 2013 and beyond was insure the continued trade alliance between former USSR nations known as the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States).
https://www.nti.org/education-center/tr … tates-cis/
The overthrow of 2014 all but destroyed that. The major reason why that usurpation occurred was because of the contestation between Russia and the West for trade dominance and access to resources.
Ukraine: trade reorientation from Russia to the EU
https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/ukrai … -russia-eu
This 'conflict', I believe, is as much about Resources and Trade then will ever be admitted to by either side. Russia's pipelines ran through Ukraine, feeding he needs of the EU, food resources from Ukraine are also important, as too is Russia's ability to get food and resources in and out of the Black Sea.
Just to reply to one of your statements:
.. Putin did not want to take Ukraine by force any more than he wanted to take Belarus by force or reclaim all the states of the former USSR..
Ken, aren´t you aware that this game is about control? Putin does control Belarus, so he doesn´t have to invade. Putin does not control Ukraine, that is why he did invade.
Control over Ukraine was lost when Yanukovych was forced out of office in early 2014 (Euromaidan).
But anyways, don´t make matters complicated by introducing the USA or Nato into the theater. Their role is that of high profile influencers who promote ideas, ideas that look attractive for the Ukrainians and lookthreatening for "Russky Mir". Trying to influence is not doing real stuff.
Only after the invasion of Ukraine weapon support became a billon dollar business. And that only hesitantly.
I believe this short video will help explain, at least a bit, why this is much more than about Ukraine right now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbu8Ph1QbeM
I am "complicating" matters because NATO nations and America are knee deep in dealing with the economic ramifications of this.
I watched half of the video and then i found out this was about promoting a small Canadian manufacturer of charging stations.
I would say the video is a typical vlog with lots of falsehoods. Even the promotional part is very dubious, just thinking of the dozens of charging station manufacturers in Germany and hundreds of home hookup charger types available. That market is already claimed for.
Back to Russia and Ukraine.
One false statement is that sanction don´t have any impact, that Russian economy is doing great. This is plain wrong, no matter what IMF may have said. Just think about decreasing VAT revenues. I think i mentioned that in a previous comment.
I don´t want to kick media links around just to underscore my assessments. It is my privilage to have had direct access to Russian enterprises (that was part of my job) and to Russian people in particular (that is my family).
Just one anecdote (hope it is no more confidential, even if relevant in todays discussion):
Some years ago (after 2014) i visited a helicopter manufacturing plant in Russia. It was doing semi commercial, semi military stuff, that is why i got access. 2014 sanctions had been in place for a couple of years and sheet metal forming lines were at half capacity (where choppers get their structure from) because a Swedish precision machine didn´t work and spare parts were sanctioned. Production methods were taken back to pre WWII conditions. Of course absolutely immune to cyber attacks, because all material management was paperwork only.
Sanction do work. May not be visible for Barby toys or basic consumer needs, but for everything else. How was the saying when Greece was bankrupt some years ago: It takes an awful lot of olives to buy a BMW.
Russia may have olives (consumer products and resources), but no BMWs. And it is the latter that make an economy prosper with its high value add.
So - i don´t understand why this video should help to explain. May be i don´t read enough media coverage? May be i try to stick to personal experience and put that into context instead?
Oh I understand, personal experience is much more valuable than any amount of reports or news.
What the majority of Russians think or want is not something I can know.
What the real intent is of China, Iran, etc. and how far they are willing to go in support of Russia I don't know either.
Russia may start getting those critical high-tech parts and components through other nations, if the likes of India and China are going to ignore sanctions and provide them with the technology for the weaponry they need.
Or Russia may be stuck doing their machine work with pre-computer (pre-WWII as you put it seems hard to believe) technology, but as you said, they don't have to worry about cyber attacks if thats the case.
Everything you've been saying aligns with the thought process coming out of DC/Pentagon reports and opinions... they have based their plans on it... they want to whittle Russia's best equipment down, get them to use up their best missiles, tanks, helicopters, jets, and then press the advantage with the best tech the West can produce.
Quality over Quantity...
So... I guess we will see, will China and the rest come through with the technology and military equipment Russia needs, or will they let Russia fall... only time can tell.
Quality vs. Quantity? Is China an edge over Russia? Gone are the days of made in America corrupted to made in USSR. 3 months ago, I went to market to buy a new gas cooker. I happen to bargained with the seller a made in China stock. It happen also that we began to ccmpared the prices of similar items. The made io .Japan is more costly than made in china.. It's odd to think even more absurd to think that China can surpass Sussia in quality production. Both can be at par. That's my tgnking.
Miebakagh you are entirely correct.
What says "Made in America" anymore?
Since most military components and most medicines are produced in China today, what is to stop China from supplying Russia with what they need?
Other than the very best Computer Chips, most of which are made in Tiawan, 75% of the world’s integrated circuit manufacturing capacity is based there. When it comes to the most advanced fabrication technologies, Taiwan outshines even the U.S., 92% of the world’s capacity for the manufacturing “nodes” of 10 nanometers and below is currently located in Taiwan.
If China takes Tiawan, well, where is America's vaunted technological advantage then?
Ken, I did a serious research lately. It's about made in USA goods in Nigeria markets. I pick Port Harcourt, the 3rd largest sea port(it was initially second) in Nigeria, as my portofolio. Made in the USA? No. It's either made in Japan or China. Even India surpassed the USA. America has no match compared to the lesser Asian or Far East countries. But cars, trunks, traillers, vehicles that are imported into Nigeria, from America are made in Japan. Ford cars are for the '60s and '70s. My car Mazda was made in where? Seriously, America, even lags behind UK, Germany, and France in imported brand new cars and daily consumer goods:milk, sugar,biscuits, tea, cocoa, and flours.
Miebakagh, not a big surprise is it?
[EDITED] Manufacturers help to drive the United States economy, with $1,397.03 billion in manufactured goods exports in 2018. That same year, $679.46 billion in exports was with our free trade agreement (FTA) partners. Small businesses comprised 96.60% percent of all exporters in the United States.
Most of that was pharmaceuticals and medicine related, then aerospace products and parts, then it drops off from there.
Relatively speaking, most common use, or everyday manufactured goods like toasters and TVs are made in China. In Africa especially, China has put a lot of effort to capture the marketplace, including pharmaceuticals, so your results come as no surprise.
Ken, thank you. I hardly realize it. Now, I know. Thanks again.
Ken, this time I'm reacting to your edit. Yes, long story short, China, has captured the African market. Right now in Nigeria, she's re-building the Nigerian Railway system. It wouldn't be a surprise if she took over the shipping line likdwise.
... So... I guess we will see, will China and the rest come through with the technology and military equipment Russia needs, or will they let Russia fall... only time can tell...
Fully agree.
But - is it necessary to wait until technology, equipment.. comes through to Russia. My take is that internal problems and struggles inside Russia may solve the issue sooner.
In 1856 Russia lost the Crimean war and had to initiate changes in society to push industrialisation. Had to sell Alaska in 1867.
In 1905 Russia lost the Russo-Japanese war (The USA was mediator for peace agreement). Resulting in Bloody Sunday massacre in St. Petersburg and eventually in the revolution.
In 2023 what if the carefully designed building named Russki Mir superiority collapses under the weight of reality. Economy is dire, the war is not going to plan, Russia is isolated and people start feeling the pain.
Yesterday i drove my mother in law to the airport. From a prewar 3 hour flight to Moscow it became a full day and more adventure trip with flying first to Turkey or Eqypt and then to Moscow. Same problems with getting medicine to Russia. Now ordinary people in the cities get involved in the issues.
May be the whole thing blows up in Russia before China or Iran .. come through with technology..
Yes, again, your view is in alignment with what DC/Pentagon believes is going to occur.
Your explanation(s) as to how much this has impacted Russia, from machine work to access to medical supplies (which are mostly made in China these days) makes sense as well.
That said, I consider what China wants out of this, and I do not see a scenario where they want Russia failing or falling. If that occurs, all of China's plans for global dominance (or at least fully independent freedom and autonomy from all things USA related) goes bye bye.
An interesting read as to why I don't trust the views on this in DC or on Wall Street, or our current leader's decision making:
https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/red-hande … q=51934480
" the number of American elites who are eager to help the Chinese dictatorship in its quest for global hegemony. Presidential families, Silicon Valley gurus, Wall Street high rollers, Ivy League..."
I remember listening to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger extol about how great the Chinese system was, how impressive their industrial efforts were, and of course they put their money where their mouths were into Chinese companies like BYD and American companies like Apple heavily reliant on China for their products.
Again, this is why I do not like the emphasis on the war, as I said in an earlier post, it s but one part of something much greater going on.
Brazil has shifted away from the dollar and to the Yuan.
Saudi Arabia has made a shift away from the dollar and to the Yuan.
China in addition brokered a peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
China is investing heavily into getting most African nations dependent on it and the Yuan.
Who is the ultimate winner of "the West" being tied up in a war with Russia?
Who is going to be hurt the MOST by Russia's cheap energy being diverted to non-Western nations?
Who is going to be hurt the MOST when OPEC slowly closes off its production to the EU and "the West"?
Who is going to be hurt the MOST as world shifts away from the Dollar as the world's reserve currency?
Interesting.
What does Saudi Arabia do with RMB from oil sales? Buy Chinese companies? Buy barby dolls for its population in size less than Ukraine? No not really.
What is Saudi Arabia doing if precious RMB exchange rate is revalued at gusto by Chinese administration? RMB is not a free floating currency.
I suggest to read this link:
https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/the-re … ld-economy
While i understand the uneasiness of Americans about the decreasing role of American economy on the world stage, it is the accumulated history of US dominance that plays out today and for the future.
At least i don´t want to bet on RMB. It is too much subject of political powerplay of the Chinese and not of economic necessities.
I have two trains of thought on this.
One is you, the Pentagon, the Think Tanks are correct in this.
That China will not supply Russia with much needed military equipment and financial support, that the Yuan will not successfully replace the Dollar for those nations so inclined to try (Brazil, Saudi Arabia, etc.).
My other train of thought is that one should not under-estimate one's enemy.
China has been working toward this and planning for this, for decades... though admittedly they did not want to pursue this course as early as they are now.
BRICS has existed for many years now, China has been forming economic alliances with the majority of Asian nations, and the shift of OPEC and Saudi Arabia away from the US and toward Russia and China cannot be ignored... that is a very big 'Canary in the Coal Mine' scenario.
Then I have to consider track records and my own experiences.
The Pentagon/DC suffers from its own 'Vranyo' one only has to look back to their assessments of how long the Afghanistan government/military would be able to sustain when the US withdrew... didn't work out exactly as Biden declared it would.
What I do feel, is that Russia's fate in Ukraine is tied to China, they cannot sustain without it past the start of the new year (2024) in my estimations.
Lots of room for speculation.
I am not sure if selfbelief instances like Afghanistan retreat or the WMD accusation on Irak some 20 years earlier was vranyo. But anyways, today´s situation in Russia and Ukraine can not really be compared.
May i suggest to read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Day_of_the_Oprichnik
The author Sorokin goes very hardcore porn in his grotesque writing, but the political message from 2006 is something that may happen in the near future. And the story describes in an exaggerated manner the behaviour of Russian power elites of today and the past decade. There is not much in the story that foreign powers influence the situation of Russian society. It is pure homebrewn, in this fiction story and in the current reality, me think.
Chris, I don't know if you have had time to go over the Pentagon's Leaked Documents regarding, among other things, the Ukraine conflict.
Without rehashing in depth, it lays out a scenario much like I had surmised. Which is the opposite of what you believed, and the Pentagon and DC officially put out.
As I had said before, this is our war, it is our troops doing the bulk of the damage against Russia, it is "Western" special forces and "Western" Intel operations and satellites and drones and missiles.
Whatever army Ukraine did have that was competent of going on the offensive, has already been destroyed during the first year of conflict.
Any victories on the battlefield against Russia from here on out, without doubt, is the US or UK or NATO forces... but never officially, of course. Then again, we aren't officially in Syria either.
Judge Napolitano summarizes it well:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4_18BNO14E
Ken, we have a different perspective at matters.
You think that America´s big footstep does a lot of harm and people, countries are fed up with this. Please - this is a very selfcentered view of American influence on the world, overrating the wrongdoings and underrating the strongpoints.
I remember an impression that my apolitical parents told me after they had come back from a Dnipro river cruise in the early 1980ties. Before Gorbachev, before the destruction of the Soviet Union they sensed a conceiled reluctance of Ukrainians against Moscow and Russia.
The coat of arms that you see today on Ukrainian uniforms, clothing, you name it, this coat of arms was the national symbol of Ukraine between 1917 and 1920.
My take is that it is a "local" conflict between Russia and Ukraine with a long history behind.
Of course the USA is not only in the role of the influencer. The USA also provides the gasoline to fire up the conflict and to stand ground for Ukrainians. But that does not change the initial cause for the war.
History of borderlands (Ukraine means borderland) is closely tied to Poland and Lithuania. This is why these countries and the baltic states were first to support Ukraine. Not because of Nato, not because Poland wants to be best friend with USA, not because America told so.
Last paragraph well noted for historical significance.
Chris, you and Mike have literal and personal experiences in and with people in and around Ukraine.
I get that Poland and others may want to join Ukraine in the fight.
I get the fact that many in DC want to take the fight to Russia.
It is going to cost many hundreds of thousands of lives.
It is going to cause untold misery to millions of others.
And with all that sacrificed, there will be no recapturing of Crimea.
Not without WWIII and MILLIONS more dying.
Not without misery around the globe that will dwarf what was unleashed in WWI or WWII.
This conflict should have never have happened.
Zelensky and Biden pushed for this, they clamored that they would take Crimea back by force.
Both of them need to be removed before these warmongering idiots engulf the world in a war where we all lose.
Crimea is filled with Russians, Crimea is part of the Russian Republic.
The Minsk Accord should have been agreed to and a way to peace found.
Instead Zelensky and Biden pounded the drums of war... and they got it.
I will not forget that.
Zelensky 2021:
https://theowp.org/ukraine-declares-all … om-russia/
"According to Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Decree no. 117/2021, Ukraine has committed to putting all options on the table to taking back control over the Russian annexed Crimea region. Signed on March 24th, President Zelensky has committed the country to pursue strategies that Ukrinform reports “will prepare and implement measures to ensure the de-occupation and reintegration of the peninsula.”
That is nothing short of a Declaration of War against Russia.
Biden 2021:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo … rtnership/
"The United States does not and will never recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Crimea"
Biden's way of declaring war, by not declaring war.
The cause of the War - Biden + Zelensky
https://www.theamericanconservative.com … f-the-war/
- "a range of measures considered greatly hostile by the Russians: repeated shelling of the Donbas; the dehydration of the people of Crimea; a language law that Russian speakers found insulting and was condemned in a Council of Europe report; the closure of Russophone and independent media, with eerie parallels to things being done at home; the arrest on charges of treason of Viktor Medvedchuk, a friend of Putin whose party led Zelensky’s in some polls in late 2020; the steady fortification of the Ukrainian army by the United States and NATO—all the things, in short, that drove Putin up the wall."
...Crimea is filled with Russians, Crimea is part of the Russian Republic...
Excuse me, this sounds very much like the "Russky Mir" narrative.
Whereever and whenever there is significant chunk of Russian ethnics, this poses the legitimacy for Russia to "protect" their kin and potentially take care by invasion. The baltic countries all have around 30% of ethnic Russians. A reason to invade?
In Northern Germany we have townships with a majority of Danish people. A reason for Denmark to take over the land?
"Excuse me, this sounds very much like the "Russky Mir" narrative."
In Ukrainian the slang term for a person who loves russia but refuses to admit to it is called a "Vinsky."
Crimea is not part of russia. russians have only ever been invaders there. The Tartars preferred to be part of Ukraine because they had freedom. It was lost in 2014 when russians illegally annexed it.
"Vladimir Putin has described Crimea as Russia’s “center of spiritual unity.” In reality, it has been home to more than 100 nationalities, and was brutally “Russified” by Joseph Stalin in the 1940s.
One of those nationalities, the Crimean Tatars, have called the peninsula home for many centuries. They remained there even after Catherine the Great’s victory over Ottoman forces in 1783.
But in 1944, Joseph Stalin formally ordered the deportation of the entire Crimean Tatar community (roughly 200,000 in number), falsely accusing them of collaborating with the Nazis. Stalin’s government forcibly loaded most onto freight cars bound for Central Asia, where they were to be resettled. Reports suggest that nearly half of the deported died during the ordeal. Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, and Canada have all formally recognized Stalin’s brutal deportation as a crime of genocide or cultural genocide.
During this same period, the Soviet Union adopted a policy of “Russification” for the peninsula. Crimea was “Russified”: Any study of the Tatar’s native language was banned, ancient Tatar names were erased, Tatar books were burned, and their mosques were destroyed.
The next chapter in the saga occurred in the 1950s when Nikita Khrushchev transferred Crimea from Soviet Russia to Soviet Ukraine, ostensibly for administrative reasons. Tatar families were formally permitted to return to Crimea in 1967, and a few hundred families did over the following decade. They began moving back in larger numbers during the 1980s and 90s. In fact, by 1991, more than 150,000 Tatars had returned. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Crimea was suddenly a part of a new, separate country, to which several prominent Russian politicians vehemently objected.
Tatar fortunes took yet another dark turn when Russian forces moved to occupy Crimea in 2014. The occupiers immediately began a campaign of persecution against the Tatar community, “outlawing” the Crimean Tatar representative body (the Mejlis) and shutting down a Tatar television channel. The State Department subsequently has cited numerous human rights violations against the Tatar population, including torture, disappearances, and psychiatric abuse. Moreover, since the Russian occupation in 2014, about 10% of Tatars have fled to mainland Ukraine. Many of them have settled in Kherson—another Ukrainian city currently under threat by Russian forces.
Given the legacy of brutal treatment of Crimean Tatars and other nationalities by the Kremlin, President Putin’s reference to Crimea as Russia’s “spiritual holy land,” serves as a chilling reminder of what President Zelenskyy is up against."
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ … sification
And that is a reason for America to have troops there why?
That is a reason for the US to be supporting Ukraine to the point where we are literally paying their pension plans why?
Maybe we need to give California back to Mexico, it was always part of Mexico until America forcefully took it from Mexico, I wonder how many there think it should be part of Mexico today?
Crimea IS part of the Russian Republic.
Crimea IS full of Russians, Russian bases, Russian ports... Russia is NOT giving it up, without WWIII ensuing and forcing it.
This argument that you and Chris make that this war is justified, that throwing millions of lives away is justified... well warmongers like you should be on the front lines, putting your behinds where your mouths are.
The Pentagon's Leaked Documents prove this Ukraine conflict is going just as I had said it would, the casualties are catastrophic, the only way Ukraine can "win" this war is if NATO forces fight it for them.
It would seem the attitude that the US needs to protect the world from invaders has taken hold, in some respect. It is easy to sit back and expect this, due to the fact we have done this throughout our history. Maybe time for other Nations to buck up, and send in troops to protect their continent from the aggression that Russia poses to their countries.
I think offering up weapons and humanitarian aid is neighborly, but American lives --- not so much.
Let's face it, the US and Russia would have one kind of war if they became a threat --- that would be nuclear.
It is a wonderful concept to be a none waring country, but when war is at your doorstep --- time to pony up a big army to defend your country. I think America is well sick of being in off shore wars.
Biden has us in a proxy war, where the citizens of a foreign land are parishing. Russia will just keep coming until there is nothing left but scorched earth. Will it weaken Putin, it might at the expense of an entire country. Ultimately the US has hopes of weakening Russia. So who wins?
There is no winner in this, certainly not Ukraine.
It has lost hundreds of thousands of lives, to take a territory (Crimea) that has no interest in being part of Ukraine and has a history of trying to become autonomous or rejoin Russia ever since it was given to Ukraine.
Some of the events in Crimea since 1990:
Jul 16, 1990 The Ukrainian SSR declares its state sovereignty.
Sep 1990 The Crimean Supreme Soviet calls upon the Supreme Soviets of the Soviet Union and Russian SFSR to nullify the decisions to strip Crimea of its autonomous status.
Jan 20, 1991 A referendum is held in the Crimea on restoring autonomy to the region. Over 80% of the electorate participates, of which 93.26% supported the "restoration of the Crimean ASSR as a subject of the USSR and as a party to the Union Treaty."
Feb 12, 1991 The Ukrainian Supreme Soviet restores the Crimea as an autonomous republic within the borders of the Ukraine.
Sep 4, 1991 The Crimean parliament declares the state sovereignty of Crimea as a constituent part of the Ukraine.
Dec 1, 1991 A referendum is held in the Ukraine on independence simultaneously with presidential elections. Crimean support for Ukrainian independence was the lowest of all of the Ukraine (only 54% in favor) with very low turnout (65%). Support not only for Russia, but for the Soviet Union, is extremely high in Crimea as much of the population is related to the Soviet military and the Black Sea Fleet.
Jan 1992 The Russian Foreign Ministry and parliament condemn the transfer of Crimea to the Ukraine in 1954.
Feb 26, 1992 The Crimean parliament changes the name of the region from the Crimean ASSR to the Crimean Republic.
Apr 1992 In a visit to Crimea, Russian Vice President Rutskoi calls for the secession of Crimea from the Ukraine.
May 5, 1992 Crimea's parliament declares total independence subject to approval in a referendum to be held in August 1992.
May 13, 1992 The Ukrainian parliament declares the Crimean parliament's independence declaration unconstitutional and gives them until May 20 to rescind it. They also give President Kravchuk the power to use all necessary means to halt Crimean independence.
May 20, 1992 In reaction to the Ukrainian ultimatum, the Crimean parliament rescinds its declaration of independence, but only suspends the referendum on independence.
May 21, 1992 The Russian parliament passes a resolution declaring the 1954 transfer of Crimea illegal and calling for negotiations on the future of Crimea. This move is supported by some Russian nationalists and Communists in Crimea.
Jun 1, 1992 Crimean and Ukrainian parliaments agree to a compromise in which Crimea is granted greater autonomy and special economic status. Crimean Tatars condemn the agreement as they were not a party to the negotiations.
And it goes on and on, this never ended, that is why Crimea was so willing and comfortable with rejoining Russia in 2014. They had always been trying to get free from Ukraine.
I appreciate the timeline it really helps put all in perspective. I see no winners in this war. It will be remembered for death and destruction.
And biden who engineer the death and destructions? A peom should immortalize this act.
Ken, thanks for the orderly detail. It has spun me to dig deeper into the Crimea history.
Some insightful videos from when Crimea was "occupied" in 2014:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y57vy4vWb-E
Angry crowds of Russia supporters as well as Russian military units surrounded and entered Ukraine's Naval High Command in Sevastopol blocking all exits and demanded that its officers switch allegiance to Crimea's new Kremlin-aligned government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqHeZUS9_EY
The Day Crimea Rejoined Russia: Russian Roulette in Ukraine
Really worth listening (reading) to what the Crimeans themselves were saying in those interviews. Remember, these were made from a pro-Western perspective, so, they aren't exactly trying to make Russia look like the good guys.
Such a shame so many lives are being thrown away, for a territory that became part of Russia 9 years ago. Especially considering the majority of the people living there have no desire to return to Ukraine.