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I keep getting into discussions about economics on these forums (mostly because I hunt for them...), and the same response keeps popping up: "well, what are YOUR economic credentials!?". This is said to me (and those who agree with me) to discredit us - my dissenters generally point to Krugman (with his many follies) and his Nobel Prize.
Anyway, I just wanted to point out a few articles that highlight the arguments I make directly with the arguments that Keynesians make, and also point to one VERY disturbing graph that no one seems to want to discuss.
Fact: The total money supply in the US has QUINTUPLED (x5) in the past 15 years, and has more than DOUBLED in the past 2-3 years. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/se … NS?cid=124
An article discussing how Keynesians (and modern economists) fail to understand that the interest rate is actually the PRICE of MONEY: http://mises.org/daily/4539
A post about how the Fed is a gigantic counterfeiter: http://mises.org/daily/4029
And another article (all from the same man) discussing how government stimulus is generally nonsense: http://mises.org/daily/3290
... I just wanted to see what others thought. Which side do the laymen (myself amongst you!) fall?
Do you think that Modern Economists' demands for even MORE money and MORE government stimulus should be respected? Or do you agree with the Austrians who argue that we need LESS interference and LESS monetary inflation?
The worshipers of Ludwig von Mises are well outside the mainstream of economists.
Considering you get your points from listings written by proponents of the Austrian school, then you derive your economics from Hayek, plain and simple...just in case you weren't aware who your source was.
Ludwig von Mises, and Hayek weren't crackpots, but their theories are now far from mainstream, i.e, unorthodox and no longer taught in most college economics courses. I heare Bush's economic adviser Mankiew? on NPR today talking about Larry Summers' departure. He said Obama had been getting very good advice on economic policy from Summers and Romer who is also leaving. My point is that the worship of the Austrian School economists is a cult, way outside the mainstream which appeals mainly to hard core libertarians. A college classmate of mine was the is the grandson of Carl Menger who originated the Austrian school of economics. A lot of water has gone over the dam since they sang the praises of the free market over socialism. They were right about that, but nobody is proposing socialism today.
many things can be called cults. I think you should stop calling it that.
I did hear the news broadcast you're talking about. The guy sounded reasonable. But, his policies are nonsense none the less. Spending money that was stolen from others is nonsense.
And where have all the Economic Advisors led the country?
The only thing you truly need to understand to understand economics is how the Fractional Reserve Banking system works and who is running the Federal Reserve.
The Fed manipulates the currency and all the "Expert" opinion on the matter, doesn't matter, because the very model of Fractional Reserve Banking relies on Perpetual Debt which is not possible.
The system has collapsed under it's own weight.
This is quite amusing, considering my latest and second post. I'm a student of business in all its facets. Economics is boring in the sense there is so much abstruse theory and so little focus on the events of the day. I can understand the activities that the federal reserve undertook following the massive financial crisis, including expanding its balance sheet, but I cannot understand how some ivy league jews run the federal reserve and work on the mandate of low inflation and low unemployment. Is it inherently cynical to distrust the same people who work in collusion with green-eyed bankers and who think nothing of extortion on a national scale.
You would be well advised to leave religion out of the discussion. AntiSemitism doesn't advance your case.
wow... yeah... Sullen91 kind of... really...
According to Oxford, the world's preeminent dictionary, "antisemitism" is "hatred of Jews; unfair treatment of Jews", and nowhere did I indicate a hatred or an unfair treatment of Jews. I merely pointed out that they run the federal reserve. That is a factual assertion.
So what? Christians run a lot of banks and are a majority in Congress. What does religion have to do with the Fed. Are they making economic policy based on the Torah?
Anyone who says they are a student of all facets of business only proves he doesn't understand business. That is like saying you are a student of all forms of science. School young man, you need school.
Nouriel Roubini 7-21-10
U.S. Housing Starts: The Downward Correction Continues
Housing starts fell 5% m/m (-5.8% y/y) in June 2010 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 549,000, following a downward revised collapse of 14.8% in May. The decline in June was was driven by volatile multi-family housing starts, which fell 19.3% m/m to reach 88,000 SAAR after rising 4.8% in May. In the single-family segment, starts fell 0.7% m/m to 454,000. This decline in May was revised downward to show a sharp 18.8% m/m collapse, following the expiration of the first-time homebuyers tax credit on April 30. In June, single-family housing completions soared by 31.3%. (This is reflective of the fact that to claim the homebuyer tax credit, buyers had to sign a contract by April 30, but the contract could go to settlement by June 30. This has now been extended to September 30.) Meanwhile, building permits, an indicator of future construction, signaled further declines ahead for single-family starts and completions. Total permits rose 2% m/m June; however, single-family permits fell 3.4% m/m to 421,000 SAAR after falling 10.3% in both May and April, according to a July 20 release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The puppeteers behind the curtain are here:
The Republican Party's 21-page blueprint, "Pledge to America," was put together with oversight by a House staffer who, up till April 2010, served as a lobbyist for some of the nation's most powerful oil, pharmaceutical, and insurance companies.
[This is a snapshot of the document properties of "The Pledge" listing Wild as the author. ]This is a snapshot of the document properties of "The Pledge" listing Wild as the author.
In a draft version of The Pledge that was being passed around to reporters before the official release, the document properties list "Wild, Brian" as the "Author." A GOP source said that Wild -- who is on House Minority Leader John Boehner's payroll -- did help author the governing platform that the party is unveiling on Thursday. Another aide said that as the executive director of the Republican leadership group American Speaking Out, Wild's tasks were more on the administrative side of the operations.
Until early this year, Wild was a fairly active lobbyist on behalf of the firm the Nickles Group, the lobbying shop set up by the former Republican Senator from Oklahoma, Don Nickles. During his five years at the firm, Wild, among others, was paid $740,000 in lobbying contracts from AIG, the former insurance company at the heart of the financial collapse; $800,000 from energy giant Andarko Petroleum; more than $1.1 million from Comcast, more than $1.3 million from Exxon Mobil; and $625,000 from the pharmaceutical company Pfizer Inc.
Good sleuthing, Ralph!
But how much did they pay Wild to actually write the Pledge to America (sounds like a furniture polish commericial, doesn't it )?????
I get high blood presssure thinking about how the GOP screamed for months about how the deficit is a crisis!!! A catastophie!!
And they unveil this manifesto in which they propose to EXTEND the Bush tax cuts that cost the government a TRILLION in revenue. In the same document they propose to REDUCE the deficit. That's like promising to build a plae with solid lead wings that will fly faster and higher than any plane ever built. And the proposal is made with a straight face while the economy is still in crash-and-burn mode from the last time they were in power - running the show then with the SAME IDEAS they suggest are now the answer to the mess they made.
It's like a victim inviting her attacker for tea - two years after the first violent rape.
While I am commenting on this GOP Mein Kamph, they propose to repeal Health Care Reform. The Conressional Budget Office made a final estimate that HCR, as passed would reduce the deficit by one trillion in the second decade it's in effect. Repealing it would INCREASE the deficit by a TRILLION!
That's ignoring how it would throw tens of millions into an uninsured status. Tens of thousands of uninsured Americans (as estimated in a Harvard study) every year will die for lack of health care. And the insurance companies will again be able to deny coverage for people with a pre-existing condition - or cancel coverage if you become seriously ill.
Didn't you love their "blue-collar" outfits?
Think they bought them just for that occasion??
Like; "Honey--you going to buy a tux?"
"No, a casual shirt....I'm playing a working man today."
I do subscribe to Keynesian economics but I believe that the deficits have now spiraled out of control and threaten our economy. My view is that we allow the Bush tax cuts to expire for those over $250,000 in income and extend them for 1 year on those below and then let those expire. The rich simply save those extra funds while the rest of us need to spend them so they will be stimulative. After a year we can examine where the economy is. I also believe in the Fed's monetary policy and I believe they have done a fine job in propping up a critical patient. Now is the time though to start raising the rates slowly because corporations are simply sitting on their enormous stores of cash with the Fed's easy monetary policy.
Good thoughts and well expressed. I share your view that the national debt is too high for the level of spending that the level of unemployment requires. Big business is not suffering, though. Capital IS there to grow, but Wall Street is waiting for demand to return. Demand can't return without more people returning to work. Chicken and egg.
My opinion is that companies should be given incentives to grow and HUGE dsicncentives (taxes) if they stay stagnant. By 'grow', I am talking about domestic hiring this year vs last year, proportionate to the size of profits and expressed as a percent of growth (in jobs).
This would result in a short-term reduction in profits as hiring happens BEFORE demand, but it should result in demand as unemployed people get jobs and their salaries turn into consumption which feeds the exonomy.
Evan - take a valium.
I totally agree Doug. I believe Obama has already proposed a tax credit for hiring unemployed workers in one of his bills. That should be expanded and made a centerpiece. You are also right that bringing down the unemployment rate will be the quickest way to spur spending and stimulate the economy which this would do.
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