Does anyone trust political polling anymore?

1. 87

   RJ Schwartzposted 7 years ago

   Does anyone trust political polling anymore?
   
   We've all heard the news...Hillary up 10 points, now Trump up 3, wait, now Hillary is back up, hold on, now it's tied......seriously, does anyone believe any of them at this point?  And furthermore, what do they matter with still nearly 3 months and who knows how many scandals to follow. 
   
   Polling has become just another media tool to drive the narrative and capture a news cycle.  Anyone notice that Gallup has stopped doing Presidential polling? 
   
   

   replyreport
2. 0

   Old Poolmanposted 7 years ago

   No I don't. We can't believe much of anything from the media anymore.

   replyreport
3. 59

   Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years ago

   
   
   What you say is true but polling hasn't become just another media tool to drive the narrative and capture a news cycle, it was used as that from the very start. If you notice polling this far out from the election is generally not accurate because it is being used to sway public opinion. Poll questions have always been rigged to get certain results and/or the poll demographics are skewed to favor one candidate or issue over another. It has been demonstrated polls showing Hillary up 10 points had 12% more democrats in the poll. All the media sensationalizes is the results, they advertise virtually nothing about the internals.
   
   However, as we get closer to the election the polls seem to become more accurate when compared to election results because pollsters know in the end they need to be accurate or no one will give them any credence. Even so we still see public polls, like in the KY governor race be drastically wrong right up to the end. That is purely a result of Democrat cronies being over zealous in polling attempts to sway the election because it only seems to happen when a democrat candidate sorely needs a win after defeat after defeat, as in KY. Jack Conway (a democrat party good ole boy candidate) lost to Rand Paul in his senate run then ran for governor and lost to Matt Bevin in an upset, not even close, but the polls had him up. The Democrats knew from Conway's personal polls he was going to lose so their operatives didn't care about accuracy, they just went all the way for him on hope they might affect the results I guess.
   
   Hillary is seeing to it with all her money and the "Clinton" influence that the media shills for her with a media offensive of hiding fact and not following up and dishonesty in polling. People, listen to this or if you don't keep hiding your head in the sand while America goes down the tubes.
   
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAztrVAldpQ
   
   In the end it is no surprise EVERYTHING IS RIGGED: Medicine, science, elections, the media, money, education, search engines, social media... you are living in a fabricated fairy tale
   
   http://www.naturalnews.com/054857_rigge … z4GOI3B8fF
   .

   replyreport
   1. 87

      RJ Schwartzposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Did you know the PEW research response rate is now below 9%?  They also threw in the towel and are no longer doing Presidential polls

      replyreport
   2. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      No but since u mentioned it I read study finds evidence that on most of the wide variety of measures tested the declining response rates alone are not causing surveys to yield inaccurate results.Surprising but why believe anything u read?

      replyreport
4. 58

   Alternative Primeposted 7 years ago

   POLLs are the Most ACCURATE Indicator of Future Election / VOTING Results ~

   replyreport
   1. 87

      RJ Schwartzposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      But I'll bet that means...only...the polls you think are worthy, right?

      replyreport
   2. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      APis wrong(as usual?I suspect)professional gamblers r far more accurate than polls r.Been proven time&time again. http://addictinginfo.org/2015/12/19/pro … e-will-be/

      replyreport
   3. 58

      Alternative Primeposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      The POLLs were Pretty DEAD On Accurate in the PRIMARIES for both the DEMs & CONs but I can Understand your Reluctance to BELIEVE the FACTs if you're one of the FEW Remaining Republicans still HANGIN' On to "Delusional Donald" as he "Free FALLs"

      replyreport
   4. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Wrong again AP,never been a Republican & never for Trump.Always against liberals.BtwU didn't read the link or did u just miss the fact that"story"was a contrived liberal piece to convince people Trump couldn't win the primary.Noteventrue

      replyreport
   5. 58

      Alternative Primeposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      My COMMENT Pertains to the POLLs & The FACT Remains, they were an EXCELLENT & Reliable "INDICATOR" of Statewide Contest Outcomes for Both DEMs & CONs ~ Trump is FREE-Falling for many VALID REASONs ~ I'm not interested in any other Distrac

      replyreport
   6. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Of course you aren't interested in the truth. Accurate or not media polls are used to sway public opinion and you can't site one source that proves those polls are the Most ACCURATE Indicator of Future Election / VOTING Results or you would have

      replyreport
   7. 58

      Alternative Primeposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Anyone can EASILY Investigate on their OWN which I ALWAYs Encourage ~ "LINK Insertion" within a QUESTION Thread is Discouraged ~ GOOGLE Research & you'll find the POLLS were about 90% ACCURATE on Average in Predicting the Primary Outcomes ~

      replyreport
   8. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Wrong again AP,I googled it beforeI said you have no proof & to the contrary of what you say most hits claim polls on average not to be accurate nowhere did I find anyone even saying polls are 90% accurate on average whatever that means.

      replyreport
   9. 58

      Alternative Primeposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      lol ~ "Dont Taze Me Bro" ~ I hope you're one of the FEW Remaining "Trumpeteers" & I hope U CONTINUE to Disregard the FACTs ~

      replyreport
   10. 59

       Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

       In the liberal fantasy world you live in there are no facts, no truth, just lies. That's what "truth is relative" gets you. You can't even cite anything to prove what you say because you make it up as you go. It's obvious u r wrong,wrong,wrong,

       replyreport
5. 94

   lions44posted 7 years ago

   Quinnipiac, Monmouth and Larry Sabato (prof. at UVA) are the absolute gold standard of polling and predictions.  Sabato's electoral college analysis is a great resource.  Excellent data, good sampling. Real Clear is another great clearinghouse site, but you have to make sure of the poll.
   
   Stay away from Rasmussen and those TV/Newspaper polls (ABCNEWS/WAPost, etc.).  Rasmussen's sampling is horrible and those TV polls are very unscientific. 
   
   Barring some unbelievable scandal for Clinton, she's winning.  Trump keeps falling into one trap after another.  When you run as a Republican, you have 2 opponents, the Dems and the media. Trump can't handle either.

   replyreport
   1. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Look,ifClinton can get a pass on a career of horrendous lies,crimes & dismal lack of accomplishments,why can't voters let Trump slide on a few miss steps? IF he straightens up & flies right(no pun intended)he'll get a pass,just watch & se

      replyreport
   2. 94

      lions44posted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Hi Taze, you're correct. However, reality is that the GOP candidate has no margin of error. That's the way it is.  If you run, you have to know that and take precautions.  To get elected, you have to "soften."

      replyreport
   3. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      But don't you think Trump has proven he has gone a long way to change the conventional political paradigm?I think people who never vote purely because they're sick of the political paradigm will be out voting for Trump this time.

      replyreport
   4. 94

      lions44posted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Taze, I don't think Trump has changed the political paradigm. It's strictly shock value. The country is changing.  I knew once the general election rolled around he was toast.  You can't shoot from the lip anymore.

      replyreport
   5. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      You may be right,I guess we'll see,could be Trump has gotten away with loading so many straws on the camel's back the last one was all it took,but I'll bet anything Hillary doesn't get elected,I think there is another shoe to drop there.

      replyreport
   6. 94

      lions44posted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Here's my final prediction for Election Day (and yes, it pains me):
      HRC - 347
      Trump - 191
      
      Barring a wikileaks murder revelation, it's over.  If I'm off by 10 electoral votes, you can write back and let me have it. But please vote.

      replyreport
   7. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      What about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9zRVRLj7-I

      replyreport
   8. 94

      lions44posted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Constantly pointing out HRC's scandals does not work. The media filter will not allow it. So Trump must take a "hopeful" approach. Get to PA & Ohio. Hammer home a hopeful economic message. Start sounding like a President.

      replyreport
   9. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      DOJ declined aFBIrequest to open up public integrity investigation into the Clinton Foundation said it did not have enough evidence to open a formal probe.Now they do.Google"FBI Conducts Massive Raid intoHRCSupporter’s Office"What next?

      replyreport
   10. 87

       RJ Schwartzposted 7 years agoin reply to this

       CJ - Aren't you glad your predictions on the final Electoral Votes were wrong?  I hear about 330 million people are happy they are too.....

       replyreport
6. 80

   gregasposted 7 years ago

   I don't trust or believe polls. The main problem with polls is that they have a tendency to sway undecided voters just because they may want to be on the "winning" side since they aren't sure of what they really want. Also, I have never been asked my opinion about anything for a poll, so where do they get these polls from? Just asking, Greg.

   replyreport
   1. 0

      Old Poolmanposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Same here Greg, I have never been asked to take part in a poll.

      replyreport
7. 0

   Cissy1946posted 7 years ago

   I've never trusted polls no matter what their subject and after taking a statistics class a couple of semesters ago I'm very glad I've never trusted them.

   replyreport
   1. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      What did your statistics class tell you about polls that makes you not trust them?Private polls can be trusted,I don't think the media sponsored polls or polls for public consumption are trustable because the media isn't trustworthy.

      replyreport
   2. 0

      Cissy1946posted 7 years agoin reply to this

      None of them can be trusted because the data is too easily manipulated to suit specific purposes. If you want a negative result from your poll all you have to do is use the data that will support that and throw out everything else as an outlier.

      replyreport
   3. 59

      Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

      Yep, makes sense, no wonder the media loves them.

      replyreport
8. 86

   tamarawilhiteposted 7 years ago

   No, because of the bias in the polls and biased reporting of the polls.
   
   The media takes many polls and then reports the one that shows them winning or designs polls to create the appearance of consensus that they then report to engineer the support for what they want. "Hey, if 60% support this, maybe I'm wrong".
   
   Pat Caddell Blasts Reuters’ Back-Rigging Polls to Show Clinton Winning
   http://www.breitbart.com/2016-president … n-winning/
   
   And if a poll doesn't agree with what they want, they'll report the answers to one or two questions to support their views but ignore the rest. You saw that with constant reporting of "everyone is starting to agree with us on social issues" from same sex marriage to transgenderism, then the social views started to change from the perceived social pressure. It wasn't reporting, it was social engineering.
   
   It is social engineering from Tulane's Unconscious Bias guidebook. Reference: http://cmsdr2.tcs.tulane.edu/equity/upl … usBias.pdf

   replyreport
9. 53

   Diana Fritzsonposted 7 years ago

   No, I have a hard time trusting political polling.

   replyreport
10. 79

    Credence2posted 7 years ago

    There are enough polls from a variety of sources across the ideological spectrum that all have the anticipated results pointing in the same direction. Republicans need to be careful not to be duped into fantasy outcomes like they did in regard to an expected "Romney win" back in 2012

    replyreport
11. 52

    ThyScribblerposted 7 years ago

    I believe polls to some degree of accuracy, but it is true the media can very easily manipulate them in order to force the public to think a certain way. I think the best thing to do is read the polls from as many different sources as possible.

    replyreport
12. 61

    dietcookposted 7 years ago

    It depends on who they are polling. If they are polling liberals naturally they would pick Hillary.

    replyreport
    1. 80

       gregasposted 7 years agoin reply to this

       When you are reading the polls you don't know who they polled. That's what makes it bad. They can sway votes.

       replyreport
13. 60

    Florence Gilliamposted 7 years ago

    I don't know where they are getting the numbers.  It is who you talk to and which way they want the polling to go.  No I don't think the political polling can be trusted by anyone.  To many crooks.

    replyreport
14. 95

    CYong74posted 7 years ago

    I think numbers are just, numbers. However, there are TONS of ways to misinterpret numbers. A lot of times, the situation leading to a set of numbers are not revealed too.

    replyreport
15. 87

    RJ Schwartzposted 7 years ago

    So, is anyone still feeling confident that the polls are accurate now that things are tied up ?

    replyreport
    1. 59

       Dont Taze Me Broposted 7 years agoin reply to this

       Like I said the closer to the election the more reliable they may be simply because if the media doesn't stop rigging them to sway public opinion the pollsters will lose all credibility.

       replyreport
16. 50

    bradmasterOCcalposted 7 years ago

    Polls are only seemingly accurate because most of the people that vote are loyal party voters, and or sheep that make the poll results their opinion. They do this because they don't like controversy and they don't want to be attacked for their real opinion, so they adopt a popular one from the polls. So, yes they do change their opinions with the polls result changes.
    
    Polls are really social engineering from the creators of the polls, as opposed to really monitoring the views of real people across the country.

    replyreport
17. 57

    The0NatureBoyposted 7 years ago

    How can political polling be trusted when they only poll Europeans, mainly British descents, when this nation is the only one built up of man of almost every nation of earth?  Anyone trusting them must not have any understanding of the vastness of ethnic differences nor the number of people it would take to get an accurate polling of 350 million citizens.

    replyreport
    1. 87

       RJ Schwartzposted 7 years agoin reply to this

       As long as we keep doing landline-based telephone polling, then we can expect to keep seeing incorrect numbers.

       replyreport
    2. 57

       The0NatureBoyposted 7 years agoin reply to this

       I agree, it has to be done face to face, across ethnics and in much greater numbers.

       replyreport