How do you think hurricane Sandy is going to help/hurt Obama's campaign as opposed to Romney's?
It probably won't, Hurricane Sandy's electoral votes aren't counted she's not an American citizen.
I had considered writing an article about this question, and came up with a ‘House that Jack built’ string of consequences. If this storm is as bad as they say it will be in the East, the direct impact will be the loss of power in the region, and downed trees. That in turn will cause a shift from automated poll-counting to the old-fashioned paper ballot counting. That shift in polling technique will mean really long lines at the polls (paper polling is lots slower than automated polling) potentially at a time when people will be more worried about restoring power and finding food and getting back to work. The effect to the election will be lower voter turnout. With lower voter turnout, the weighting on the results will go to those who took advantage of early voting.
But the East and North East are not the only regions that will be affected. We are beginning to hear calls for three to four feet of snow next week west of the Appalachian Mountains. Those regions will also be affected, and likely with the same consequence – lower voter turnout.
Given all that, the results of the election will depend on who is more determined to get to the polls under those adverse conditions. The full answer would depend upon some knowledge of how the early voting is going in those states that will be affected. That may well make the difference. No matter who wins, we’ll be able to blame the next four years on Sandy Frankenstorm and The Great Pumpkin.
Hopefully it doesn't help or hurt either. Hopefully Americans band together to help anyone who needs it. Hopefully the President has federal resources ready to help the States. Hopefully Mitt Romney doesn't try to make political points. Hopefully everyone acts like a grown up.
Usually when less voters turnout at the polls, it hurts the Democrats. So my opinion is that it would hurt Obama. It would also depend on just how hard hurricane Sandy hits and how many electoral votes those states have. It seems the total count wouldn't be taken until all of the electoral votes are in.
I think it will be pretty much a "non-event" in terms of the election. I have a hunch that the storm is going to turn out to be much less severe than the predictors indicate....lots of hype here in the news. Lots of folks will get rained on and then it will pretty much be over....maybe a bit of wind but nothing approaching the winds around this election campaigning. ~WB
I am more apprehensive about the American people at this point who are in the line of the storm. They are my main concern---my friends, relatives and other, whom I do not know are the important issue at the moment.
I think it depends mainly on when it hits. If after the election, none at all. However, if before the election, it could effect Obama significantly. If government emergency aid gets to the region extremely fast and adequately, it will help him tremendously. If it's slow and shows any similarity to Katrina in N. Orleans, he's in big trouble.
I know this is a little different spin on the question, but one I thought was worth mentioning since you did ask about the campaign rather than the actual election day and the physical effect the storm would have at the voting polls
I doubt it will have any impact; Mr. Obama may get a "Presidential moment" out of it, but with such a polarized electorate, I don't think the numbers will shift any.
Unless the federal government fails to respond to a disaster situation, I doubt it will have an impact on either campaign.
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