I know it takes time for the economy to return and you never know how long it takes to recover, but this is just kinda a poll to see what everyone thinks.
Even though almost none of use are experts and the real experts can only guess; When do you guess the economy will recover?
I thought this would just be interesting to see what everyone thinks. Leave a quick post (or a long one if you desire)....
I don't want it to return to normal! if normal is the way it used to be.
We need BIG change in our economy...common sense and ethical reasoning and care for others is greatly needed. The lack thereof is the core problem in all situations. We need a "Golden Rule" economy.
We need a sound monetary system, where others do not artificially control inflation and can print money whenever they want to suit their own purposes at the expense of the majority of the population.
I don't think it will ever pick up. I think that the middle class will become dirt poor and all the same stuff will all start over again. I don't think the economy has ever been good. I guess it depends on what you think is good, but it has never been good enough. Only for the ones who have been rich all of their lives. I think the ones who have lots of money are the ones who think that the economy is picking up.
I have educated people in my family who struggle with low paying jobs. I think unless you have a product that everyone needs and will always buy, then you will probably be somewhat struggling too. If you have a product that everyone wants to buy and you have it manufactured, then you would have to be rich in the first place to even get to that point.
This economy stuff is a joke. I hope the economy doesn't return to 'normal' or it will still be a joke.
Just wanted to share this with you. Many (many) years ago I worked for an engineering firm. They designed and marketed computer equipment to/for the U.S. military. Every morning started with a lively discussion of the day's planned events, some observations about the previous days efforts and some techie jokes.
One of the engineers asked me if I knew the definition of expert. I told him what I though it was and he corrected me with the following.
Expert: Three lucky guesses
Expert: Ex as in "has-been"; "spurt" as in drip.
I laughed my arse off.
I think it will take a lot longer if we keep messing with it.
It has already recovered somewhat.
See a bit of a pullback in September and October it will grow further, make sure you don't miss the bus.
Jobs will follow July next year.
When consumers and businesses turn off CNN and stop hearing about how bad things are and get over their fear and start spending again things will pick up.
From a financial standpoint all the resources for recovery are in place and waiting. Honestly the money never went anywhere, it's still there in the economy its just not being circulated and spent. Much as the depression of the early 30's was fueled by fear so has this one. What I want to know is why with the amount of money Obama put into the stimulus, he simply didn't give the 300 million Americans, a million dollars a piece. That would have left another 400 million to prop up banks. Instead money was given to the auto and banking industry , two institutions who have proven time again that they are incapable of wise financial management and oversight. Giving the money to the citizens would have allowed people to clear out doubt, buy new homes and cars and boosted spending tremendously.We are still going to pay for it though. I never got a dime from the government over the last 5 years. Yet I will have to pay off the debt same as you.
It seems to me that this government really had no desire to help the common working man recover or be free of debt. There's no money in it for them, no profit. Look how much banks are prospering just from all the overdraft fees.
Ahhh, some common ground for us Scott
I completely agree with this. Great post on it all.
I think it's turning back to growth in most places already, but soon we are going to be having another problem, one that was beginning to show just before the credit crunch. As formerly very poor countries continue to grow very quickly , especially China and India but others too, there will be more and more pressure on the prices of basic commodities. Pretty soon after the recession has ended we will go back to high price inflation, initially on food and oil but then extending to other things. This will mean that even with an economy in growth many people will feel like they are getting poorer rather than richer.
If by normal you mean crazed out borrowing and lending, I would say never
About six months. Misha the bankers and wall street types are already working on designing new unregulated ways to borrow and lend to the American consumer. Guarantee it.
Nelle - you are wrong. We are nowhere near bottom yet and we will not be returning to "normal," any time soon.
I understand there's going to be another housing bust. This caused by all the formerly employed people who can no longer pay their mortgages. These being the people who are the latest victims of this down-turn. We have a long way to go yet.
That this happened again galls the hell out of me. There are a lot of guilty people involved too. None of whom seem to be suffering as much as those of us who had little or nothing to do with it*.
I freely admit that this latest downturn caught me completely by surprise. I thought there enough regulations in place to prevent another fiasco like this. Apparently not!
All I can gather from this is that there is no limit to greed or sociopathic attitudes when it comes to making money.
* I refuse to use credit and as a consequence have nothing to do directly with real-estate. The last economic downturn about a decade ago convinced me to "get off that bus."
Sorry to hear that. But let's face it - the last 15 years was pretty messed up and we need a change. For once I agree with SJ
I agree with Mark, to many negitives are still to hit the economy, pending tax legislation particularly Cap in Trade will skyrocket pricing and continuing unemployment and foreclosure impacts are not even close to peaking.
Liam - after the commercial property bust that one will come. The 5 biggest US banks are currently teh biggest property owners in that country. The same in Spain - 4 banks own more property that anyone else.
If anybody thinks all this bailout n=money is going anywhere other than to support that - they are sadly mistaken.
If all that property was on the market and market forces set the price - every American would be able to afford their own home.
And nobody wants that
I was lucky enough to have seen this coming and got out of US property in 2004, and UK in 2006. We are nowhere near done ......
I often agree with you Mark, but this is the one time I wish I couldn't.
I do believe that "If all that property was on the market and market forces set the price - every American would be able to afford their own home." would likely be the very best thing for jump-starting and keeping this economy going.
I also received, via email, an unlikely proposal, a joke really, that would have had the U.S. government give every fifty plus year old in the country (U.S. of A.) one million dollars with the provision that they 1) buy a house and 2) buy a car. Anything left of the million to be spent as the recipient desired. As silly as that sounded it would have cost less than the current efforts and actually worked in restarting the economy.
In high risk US areas, property prices are back to where they were when Alan Greenspan changed into 2nd gear. Foreclosures are slowly but surely being picked up.
We still have a number of smaller banks failing, but the big boys are all back in the black. Some paying their TARP back faster than others. Do you perhaps know of anything they are hiding in their balance sheets?
The equity markets have lost a little momentum, but still growing strong.
There is a little panic buying of gold now and then, but the sellers make their profits cleverly, so no sustainable trend showing a Dollar collapse at this time.
Our fearless leader (Obama) is professing a recovery.
Do you have any factual data, to substantiate your gloom and doom prediction, or is it just gut feel?
can someone define normal?
the same people that got us in trouble are the very same people who are doing it again, with the housing market~
I think after the November deadline the $8,000 credit to new home buyers, that the housing market will sink again. Right now people (here in the cities) are stumbling over each other and multiple offers are very common right now on homes. The ever so smart home seller & Realtors have been "smart" too, by increasing their home price by $8,000, if not more, but keeping it at the cap.
I have seen a price increase across the board at the grocery store over the last month. Generally after Labor Day gas prices go down, they've either stayed the same or have increased.
School supplies & school clothing costs were unbelievable this year.
We are on a strict budget - as my husband was recently laid off. I feel fortunate though, we follow the no credit card rule in our home, so we have no debt, except the mortgage & normal monthly utility bills & insurance (oh I forgot, the biggy, college tuition).
I don't see the economy turning any time soon. I think we'll continue to see a rise in prices and people will continue to cut back on spending.
Gas prices have been really ticking me off. The consumer price index predicted a drop in gasoline prices, but they've risen anyway. Grrr.
I love that I have children and was so involved in their lives. They are grown now and in this economy I'm very glad I don't have that financial burden anymore. I don't envy you this time in your life, but I do wish you the very best. Please do not forget the possibility of scholarships or grants.
I think it's time for many of us to consider alternative means of generating cash. Many small businesses start under exactly these conditions.
I DO wish we didn't have such depressing news for each other, but I think it's equally important to take a pragmatic approach by expecting the worst and hoping for the best.
It is sad, isn't it!
My daughter did not get any scholarships this year or grants. When my husband was laid off she went to the financial aid office & they told her to come back after he'd been unemployed for 8 weeks.
Fortunately for us, she choose to do PSEO during her senior year in HS and the state pays for all kids who do PSEO. So she finished her freshman year.
Really hoping she gets something next year. It has been said that females in the Engineering field get more scholarship money their junior & senior year.
We are starting to sell my husbands segmented wood turning pieces. So its like a mini=-business.
I can't find an emoticon that looks like shock and surprise. Sheesh. I know they were being honest, but why not tell your baby that she stands a better chance if she shows up in rags or something. :^(
I'm not familiar with PSEO. Here in California if you keep your grades up while attending a community college, a state school is required to accept you. Of course, this does not cover funding. Here state schools can be quite hard to get in to. There are so many more potential students than positions that the GPA typically has to be quite high.
An engineering scholarship or grant would be just the thing, in my opinion, and despite more women going into the various engineering fields there is still a very real disparity here between the genders. My personal opinion is that it's an artificial disparity.
I hear you. I myself am worried about the future. As a recent newlywed I'm especially concerned; I have another person to think about.
I saw this current madness coming a few years ago and tried to tell people it was going to happen. I got called names for my troubles. I've been called 'fruitcake', 'chronic worrier', and 'survivalist nutjob'.
I paid off the house and the car. Got rid of the credit cards and saved up money. I stocked up on long term food supplies. Everyone said I was nuts.
Four months ago the factory I was working at for the last 17 years shut down. This is a little town and there are few jobs to be had. Two of my friends are going through bankruptcy proceedings now. At least two other are thinking about it. Nearly everyone is still drawing unemployment as few have found other jobs here. AT least two have admitted to me that they are behind on their rent. None have admitted to me that they are getting food stamps but I am aware that at least five of my former coworkers are. It's rather hard to hide it when you see them pull out the EBT card at the store.
I owe nothing but the monthly utilities. I can continue to pay these for the next two years without asking for assistance. After that even I will have problems. My food bills are very low since we only really have to buy bread and milk.
People just won't see stuff they don't want to see.
Locally the facts are as follows:
1. The factory will never reopen.
2. Drawing new jobs into a small town is difficult and takes a long time.
3. No matter how much better the economy gets it isn't going to get much better here for a long time to come.
I have same predicament, as I am closing a factory on September 30th, and letting just over 2,000 people go. That includes myself.
Time is of the essence though, when one door closes, another opens. I have my next job interview lined up for second week October, plus other options. Use every minute you have to the most.
Best said here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQuPfq4Xj0Q
I am pessimistic about the economy turning around any time soon as well. That's why I'm so ticked off that Obama and his administration are so pushy about the health care reform and forcing us to carry all that debt. I was already annoyed about the non-stimulizing stimulus boondoggle that he quickly pushed through. All it was was a big barrel of pork for the democrats. All that spending doesn't bring any permanent jobs. It's just one big show.
As far as the US is concerned, a few states are actually already in the upswing. That doesn't mean however that the overall economy is on the rise. Far from it. Just this morning, California hit its greatest unemployment ratio (12%) in its existence. Florida is another state that is still in the dumpster.
How long will it last before good times come rolln' again? Your guess is as good as mine. Although, it's a safe bet it won't be anytime soon.
When hell eternally freezes over.
We here in the United States are just a bunch of puppets riding an emotional roller-coaster on the backs of the crooked politicians that we were stupid enough to vote into office Then we sit back and let them do whatever they damn well please. Way to go Americans. Hope everybody is happy with whomever they voted for. We really got a good thing going now, don't we?
What economy? All i see is green paper, white paper that stands for large amounts of green paper, and companies NOT becoming innovative with there approaches to get there product out so people spend on it. In the end, the economy is the same as the paper on the roll in the bathroom no matter how strong it is.
Comma splices! LOL!!!
As several people have stated it depends on how you define normal.
If you define normal as the decade of the 90s it will be a long time. If you define normal as 2000-2009 then we are normal
The economy will take a while to work through the excesses that we have developed over the last 20 years. With our current government activism (started during the Bush administration and taken to new levels by the current administration), it will take longer to resolve the issue.
Free markets tend to be painful but quick in recovery. Government mandated and driven markets tend to be long drawn out painful affairs. Look at history and world governments for evidence.
I have written a couple of articles on my blog about it. Just do a Google search for Stock Market Ask The Wealth Squad. I would post a link but don't want to get Hub spanked
I think we are in for a long haul. At least 18 more months and maybe up to 5 years before things hit the bottom of the cycle.
I pray everyday I am wrong though
If history repeats itself, a year or two.
There are so many variables such as new policies and spending in the US, trade embargos, new wars (especially in the Middle East), terorist attacks on the financial systems, spending habits of people, etc....
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Yesterday Oblama signed the stimulus package and by the time the stock market closed the Dow was down almost 300 points.. Today he spoke about the mortgage bailout. When he started the Dow was positive and now is down 30 points the last time I checked. I guess it's not convincing a lot of investors...
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